Thursday, November 25, 2010

NFL Week 12 Picks

I ran my record to 14-2 last week, bringing my overall to 94-66.  Thanksgiving is here and we’re coming down the home stretch. So has you slip into your tryptophan-induced coma, enjoy these games to the best of your ability.

NE vs. DET  

                                 Detroit is still playing very hard and there is a lot of hope for the future. However, “future” is the key word in that statement. New England should win easily.

                NO vs. DAL 

                                 While Dallas has been playing well these past few weeks, I don’t think they’re going to be able to overcome Saints without Tony Romo. The Saints will probably win.
               
                CIN vs. NYJ
               
                                 Given the way Cincinnati has been playing recently, there’s no chance they’ll beat the Jets.

                GB vs. ATL *Game of the Week*

                                 Green Bay has been suffering injury after injury through the season, but has continued to find ways to keep winning in spite of the injuries. Their pass rush and solid corner play has greatly helped the offensive imbalance that the Packers have been forced into due to the loss of Ryan Grant. Atlanta has been more balanced offensively, but their passing defense is not great and the could have a hard time contain Greg Jennings and the explosive Packers receiving corp. On the other side, Matt Ryan and Roddy White will have a difficult time playing against Charles Woodson. However, the Packers rush defense is mediocre and now they have to face Michael Turner. No matter how you slice it, this is going to be a fun game to watch. I’m picking Atlanta to win because of their balanced offense and their record at home.

                PIT vs. BUF

                                 Buffalo has shown well in their first two wins of the season, however that will mean little when they have to face the Steelers. Pittsburgh should win.

                CAR vs. CLE

                                                                                  I was ready to say that Cleveland would win this game with little effort, right up until I heard that Jake Delhomme was going to be starting in place of an injured Colt McCoy. While I do believe that Delhomme will be motivated to beat his old team, I don’t think he’ll be able to overcome the habit of forcing balls into tight coverage to be a difference in this game. The difference-maker that will give the Browns the win in this game will be Peyton Hillis. He is the strength of the running game and if the Browns can stick to that strength, they should be able to win this game.

                TEN vs. HOU

                                 Regardless of how poorly Houston has been playing recently, they should be able to beat the Titans when they’re lead by Rusty Smith.

                JAC vs. NYG

                                Jacksonville has been playing well recently, while the Giants have been slumping. However, I don’t think that they’ll be able to compete with the Giants, even a slumping Giants team.  

                MIN vs. WAS

                                 As much as I like Leslie Frazer as a head coach, it’s going to take more than one week for him to fix the turnover problem that the Vikings have had this season. The Redskins should win.

                MIA vs. OAK 

                                 This game is really tough to pick. Oakland seems to have fallen back into their losing ways, while Miami is likely going to be starting Tyler Thigpen again. Anyone who saw Thursday night’s game can tell that this isn’t going to end well. I’m giving it to Oakland because of Miami’s quarterback situation.
                                               
                KC vs. SEA

                                 Kansas City shouldn’t have too many problems fighting through the mediocre Seattle defense. Keep an eye on Dwayne Bowe in this game, Seattle’s 30th ranked pass defense means he’s going to get a lot of love in this game.

                TB vs. BAL

                                 As good as Tampa Bay has been this season, they just aren’t up to the task of facing the Ravens. But a good showing would do wonders for their confidence going forward.

                PHI vs. CHI

                                 Philadelphia’s offense is perhaps the best (and definitely the most explosive) in the NFL. Chicago’s defense is based on causing turnovers and holding field position. I’m going to say that Philly’s offense wins that battle and the game.

                STL vs. DEN

                                 As much as I hate to admit it, Denver has a very good passing game and should be able to beat on the Rams.

                SD vs. IND

                                 This game basically comes down to which team screws up less. Indianapolis’ injury count has led to far more mistakes than the Colts are used to since
Peyton Manning took the Helm as leader of the team. Sadly I think that injury count will end up costing them this game as well. San Diego wins.

                SF vs. ARI

                                 Somehow this game got the Monday night matchup. While Arizona has been playing somewhat better over the course of the season, San Francisco has played much better over the last three weeks and are less turnover prone than the Cardinals. They should win. 

College Football Week 13 Preview

I went 17-3 last week, putting me at 204-62 for the season. This is last full week of games; enjoy it while it lasts folks.


                                #21 Arizona @ #1 Oregon

                                                 While Arizona has been experiencing a great deal of success this season, they have also has a hard time playing against the best teams in the conference. Oregon’s offense has the ability to score from anywhere on the field but was also stymied by the Cal defense for the majority of the game. Arizona’s defense has been one of the defining characteristics of the Wildcats season; however I’m not sure they’re athletic enough to contain the dominating running game of Oregon. I have to give this win to Oregon, though I am rooting for Arizona.


                                #2 Auburn @ #11 Alabama

                                                   Well, for the first time since 1994, this heated rivalry game is relevant to someone who lives outside of Alabama. This is the last game that Auburn would consider a major challenge on their road to the BCS Title game and they have to be confident coming in seeing how Alabama has had a hard time defending the run. However, in both of Alabama’s losses, Alabama was upset by team they were heavily favored against. This would lead me to believe that they were severely overconfident going into those games. It’s impossible for them to be overconfident here, plus they have the home field advantage. I’m going to give this game to Alabama.


                                #3 TCU @ New Mexico   

                                                 New Mexico has won precisely one game this year and they aren’t doubling that win total against TCU. Horned Frogs win, but they will need help to stay in the National title race.


                    #4 Boise State @ #19 Nevada *Game of the Week*

                                 This is the toughest test that Boise State has faced since downing Virginia Tech at the beginning of the season. Nevada, aside from there hiccup against a very good Hawaii team, has been dominating this season. This domination has been personified by the strength of their running game and the talent of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Last year, that running game really pushed Boise State to the edge. I expect to much the same this year, with the same result, Boise State’s victory.


                                #5 LSU @ #12 Arkansas

                                                 Ugh, what do I say about this game? LSU has been dominating opponents, with their strong defense and a great running attack. Arkansas has a decent defense, but really survives on the strength of a strong passing game. This comes down to whether or not the LSU defense will be able to contain the LSU passing game, which it should be able to do. LSU’s talent in the defensive backfield is good enough to keep Ryan Mallett under control. LSU should win.


                                Oregon State @ #6 Stanford

                                                 Well, saying Oregon State would win the Pac-10 sounds rather stupid now doesn’t it? At this point, they are trying to become bowl eligible while playing against the two best teams in the conference. I don’t like their chances, however they have been pulling huge upsets out a lot over the past few years so, they could easily surprise a few people in these games. I’m still going with my common sense and saying that Stanford should win this game.


                                Northwestern @ #7 Wisconsin

                                                 This game could have been very good, but Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa went out for the season with a knee injury last week. Without Persa, there is little chance that Northwestern is going to have a chance against Wisconsin. The Badgers should win.


                                Michigan @ #8 Ohio State  

                                                 Michigan has cooled off greatly since their start to the season, as has their star Denard Robinson. He still is a dangerous runner, but teams have figured out how to counter him and the Wolverines defense has yet to reach the point where it can compete with strong offenses. That defense is what will cripple their chances against Ohio State. The Buckeyes should win easily.


                                #13 Oklahoma @ #9 Oklahoma State

                                                 This matchup features two of the best offenses in the country facing off. It should be fun to watch Justin Blackmon and DeMarco Murray (two of the most explosive players in the country), do their thing. Ultimately, the team whose defense is able to contain the opposing offense will win this game. While Oklahoma State can turn the ball over, Oklahoma is better at not allowing the other team to score points, leading me to pick the Sooners.


                                #10 Michigan State @ Penn State
    
                                                 Penn State has had some really quarterbacking issues this year, leading them to a vastly unimpressive season. Michigan State will most likely win, though Penn State will put up a fight.


                                Kansas @ #14 Missouri  

                                                 I think my feelings on Kansas are known after the past two weeks. Missouri wins.


                                Colorado @ #15 Nebraska

                                                 This game could be closer than you think, because Taylor Martinez and Niles Paul are both injured (Paul missing the rest of the season) and that could greatly hurt the offensive production. However, Colorado hasn’t been very good for a long time, and they shouldn’t be able to compete with the talent of even the Nebraska backups. Cornhuskers should win, but an upset could be in the works.


                                Virginia @ #16 Virginia Tech

                                                 Virginia Tech will continue on their hot streak. Virginia just doesn’t have all their ducks in a row yet.
                               

                                #17 Texas A&M @ Texas  

                                                 This is so weird to say. But I don’t think that Texas really stands a chance in this game. They have been unusually unprepared for the quarterback change and just haven’t been playing up to the standards they set for themselves over the past few years. Texas A&M should win this game, mostly on the strength of Von Miller’s pass rush.


                                #18 South Carolina @ Clemson   

                                                 South Carolina has to be focused on this game and can’t be looking past Clemson to their eventual SEC Championship matchup against Auburn. While Clemson has been up and down this season, thy have still shown the ability to pull upsets against the best teams they face. However, most of those teams have been inconsistent ACC teams, not dominant SEC teams. I’m giving this to South Carolina.


                                BYU @ #20 Utah

                                                While Utah has struggled some in the past three weeks, their close victory over San Diego State last week has helped them build some momentum going into this game against a mediocre BYU team. The Utes should be able to continue on their current track and secure themselves as a ten win team this year.


                                Florida @ #22 Florida State

                                                For the first time in a long time, Florida State would seem to be the favorite in this match up. Since losing Tim Tebow, The Gators seem to be leaderless and directionless. They have the ability to be great, but they just haven’t been able to overcome their ranked opponents during the course of this season. I have to give this win to Florida State, who is riding high after two consecutive wins against tough opponents.


                                #23 North Carolina State @ Maryland

                                                These two teams are very closely matched. Both have good defenses and do a good job scoring when they have the opportunity to so. Ultimately though, I still love Russell Wilson and think he should be able to overcome the challenges that Maryland lays before them. NC State wins.


                                #24 Iowa @ Minnesota     

                                                 While Iowa suffered a major disappointment in their loss to Ohio State, they should have little problem beating down on the hapless and directionless Golden Gophers. Iowa wins.


                                 #25 Mississippi State @ Mississippi   
    
                                                 In most cases I would probably just give this game to the ranked team, given how poorly Mississippi has played this year. However, Ole Miss has shown the ability to beat teams that overlook them and that could happen here. That being said, I expect that Mississippi State’s stifling defense will dominate the Ole Miss offense. Mississippi State should win.

                Other Games of Note


                                West Virginia @ Pittsburgh

                                                This is the big determining game in the Big East. If West Virginia wins, they’ll hold the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh for the Big East title and both teams will have the same in-conference record. Both teams rely on a strong defense to keep their offenses in the game, though West Virginia has the ability to run the ball with the best of them. If West Virginia can control the clock and contain Johnny Baldwin, then they should win. I’m of the opinion that they’ll be able to do that and I am calling for them to win.


                                SMU @ East Carolina

                                                This should be a high flying affair, with both teams using spread passing attacks and neither possessing particularly good defenses. However, the thing that gives SMU the edge is the fact that they don’t have one of the worst defenses in the country, like East Carolina does. Due to that fact, I have to say that SMU will out score East Carolina and take control in Conference USA’s west division.


                                Southern Mississippi @ Tulsa

                                                This matchup could be a shootout, but it’s less guaranteed than the previous matchup. While Tulsa does have the strong offense, Southern Mississippi has shown that they can play with the best of teams and beat opponents that they should have problems facing. Ultimately I think that Southern Mississippi will be able to do that in this game and I’m calling for them to win.


 Top 10 Heisman Candidates

          Wow! Honestly Wow! I can’t justifiably move any of these players. Every single one had games that were either in line with what got them here or that was great, with exception of one: Dominique Davis. While he didn’t have nearly I’m going to stand by the others without explanation. You can check out the stats for each of these players here: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics

1.       Kellen Moore
2.       Justin Blackmon
3.       LaMichael James
4.       Cameron Newton
5.       Andrew Luck
6.       Colin Kaepernick
7.       Andy Dalton
8.       Vai Taua
9.       Bobby Rainey
10.   Lance Dunbar

Thursday, November 18, 2010

College Football Week 12 Preview

I went 19-6 last week, putting me at 188-59 for the season. I blew a few close ones, but overall I’m still satisfied with the results. Let’s see what this week of games brings me, as the season starts winding down for numerous teams.


                                #1 Oregon: Bye
                                           
      
                                #2 Auburn: Bye 
                                           
       
                                #3 TCU: Bye  
                                             
    
                   Fresno State @ #4 Boise State

                                This is definitely where Boise State’s schedule picks up in difficulty. Fresno State may not have any major defining characteristic to their offense, but they play hard and can challenge any team in the country. However, Boise State has had their number for a number of years and they should win, but it won’t be easy.


                                Mississippi @ #5 LSU   

                                                 LSU is still a dominant team while Mississippi is just trying to become bowl eligible. LSU should dominate, but Ole Miss has upset them in recent years and they could do it again this year.


                                #6 Stanford @ California

                                                 This game is a lot like the previous game. A mediocre team fighting for a bowl berth facing one of the best teams in the country. It hardly sets up for a good game, in spite of how well California stood up to Oregon. Stanford should win handily.


                                #7 Wisconsin @ Michigan  

                                                 This matchup is bit tighter and should be more interesting than the last one. I really want to say that Wisconsin has the big advantage in this game; however I just don’t see the Badgers defense being able to contain Denard Robinson, at least not enough to keep pace on the score board. I’m calling for the Michigan upset.


                                #8 Nebraska @ #19 Texas A&M     

                                                 I’d say this was a battle of two of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12, but I would be lying. While Ryan Tannehill has been pretty good this year, I don’t have faith in his ability against that Nebraska defense. Nebraska should win.


                                #9 Ohio State @ #20 Iowa

                                                 I would’ve have given Iowa the edge before last week. But the loss against Northwestern last week has left me less than impressed. I think Ohio State wins, though Iowa has a home field advantage and the talent defensively to pull off the upset.



                                #10 Oklahoma State @ Kansas    
                                                  What I said about Kansas last week still applies. Oklahoma State wins.


                                Georgia State @ #11 Alabama  

                                                I’ll give Georgia State this; they have far surpassed all expectations by having a winning season in their very first year of football. That being said, I don’t think a lobotomized mental patient would be able to call for this upset with any kind of seriousness. Alabama is going to roll.


                                Purdue @ #12 Michigan State

                                                Purdue has been playing surprisingly well considering the number of injuries that have piled up during the course of their season. However, they are in no position to compete with Michigan State. The Spartans should win without much effort.


                                #13 Arkansas @ #21 Mississippi State   

                                                 Like I said last week, Mississippi State is playing well, but they’re just not ready to compete with the best of the SEC. Arkansas is still one of the best teams in the SEC and should be able to win.


                    #14 Oklahoma @ Baylor

                                                 As much as I like Baylor, it’s clear that they just aren’t ready to compete with the big boys of the Big 12 yet. I think they’ll put up a good fight, but they’ll ultimately fail to defeat Oklahoma.


                                #15 Missouri @ Iowa State   

                                                 Iowa State just lost their star quarterback Austin Arnaud. I highly doubt that they’ll be able to keep pace with the high scoring Missouri offense. The Tigers should win with ease.


                                #16 Virginia Tech @ #24 Miami (Fl.) *Game of the Week*

                                                 Virginia Tech has returned to power after a poor start to the season, through their normal profile of strong defense and a good rushing offense. Miami is fighting their way through numerous lineup changes at quarterback and has found a way to keep their heads above water. However, I don’t like teams that have an unsettled quarterback situation against a dominating defense like the Hokies have. Va. Tech should win, but Miami’s defense will put up a good fight.
                               

                                Troy @ #17 South Carolina

                                                 As much as I’ll praise Troy for being a major power in the non-BCS conferences, I’m not blind to their failures or shortcomings. Troy has had a down year by their standards and even at their peak; they wouldn’t be able to compete with a strong SEC team. South Carolina should win.


                                New Mexico State @ #18 Nevada   

                                                 New Mexico State has little chance of holding down the Nevada offense. Colin Kaepernick should have few obstacles in his route to becoming the first quarterback with 2000 passing yards and 1000 rushing yards in three consecutive years.


                                #22 Arizona: Bye (Practice those fake injuries boys. Seemed to work pretty well for Cal.)
                                               

                                #23 Utah @ San Diego State    

                                                 Until last week’s debacle against Notre Dame, I would have said that Utah would win this game handily. Now, I’m just not sure that they’re ready to face the spread offense that San Diego State utilizes. While I’m, apprehensive about it, I’m still going to say that Utah wins. I’m making this pick on the basis of the experience that the Utah defense has in facing this team.


                                 #25 Florida State @ Maryland      

                                                 Florida State’s offense has found ways to be productive in spite of sometimes inconsistent play from the offense. Maryland has done much the same thing, relying on their defense to keep them in good field position and scoring when the opportunity arises. Sadly, I don’t think Maryland’s offense can overcome the kind of defense that they will be pitted against playing Florida State. The Seminoles should win.


                Other Games of Note
                (This is a really bad week; so much so I was tempted to put the game between Florida and Appalachian State in this section. Just think about that for a while.)


                                 Pittsburgh @ South Florida

                                                Pittsburgh has been very disappointing this season; however they have found ways to stay somewhat relevant. South Florida should win this game, since they have been somewhat more consistent offensively and defensively, however it will still be interesting to watch and may be one of the more entertaining games this weekend.


                                North Carolina State @ North Carolina

                                                I think this is a make or break game for both teams. North Carolina State has experienced some great highs during the course of this season, but has also experienced some bitterly disappointing losses. North Carolina by all rights has been overachieving given the amount of talent that they lost to suspensions. This should be a fun game to watch, punctuated by the criminally underrated quarterbacks Russell Wilson and T.J. Yates. Both have had very good seasons and should be the highlight of this game. I’m giving this win to NC State because I think they are better prepared for the big time than North Carolina is right now.


                                Houston @ Southern Mississippi

                                                     This is usually one of the biggest, most important contests in Conference USA’s season. It may not have as much meaning right now because Houston is having an off-year. However they still are a dangerous team not to be underestimated. Southern Mississippi has continued on their tear of winning seasons and is probably the best team in Conference USA right now. I expect Southern Miss. to win, but don’t underestimate Houston’s offense, especially since Southern Miss. has lost a few of their linebackers in a shooting this past week. No one is dead, but needless to say those affected will be missing this game. 


Top 10 Heisman Candidates
1.       Kellen Moore – Again, is there any reason to drop him down the list?

2.       Justin Blackmon – You know someone is good when it’s boring to watch them dominate. Blackmon is officially so good, he’s boring.

3.       LaMichael James – While he had a bad game, it’s really hard to drop him far after the season he has had. However, missing a game this late in the season would critically injury his chances. He needs to get healthy before Oregon’s November 26th game against Arizona and have a great game to stay in the top 3. Consider this his holding spot until then.  

4.       Cameron Newton – He had a great game against an opponent that was tougher than most thought they would be. But, the allegations remain and unless they go away, he can only lose more votes.

5.       Andrew Luck – While he had a great completion percentage and led the Cardinals to a close win, he also threw 0 touchdowns and one pick. One its own that’s ok, but in competing with these players, you can’t be just ok.


6.       Colin Kaepernick – While he wasn’t great passing against Fresno State, he still made a huge impact with his legs.

7.       Andy Dalton – Had a great game in a shootout against San Diego State. He’s trying to make his case late in the year, but with only New Mexico left to play, it’s too little, too late.

8.       Vai Taua – While his yardage numbers were down, he still scored three key touchdowns and could make a big impact in Nevada’s upcoming game with Boise State. Keep an eye on him.

9.       Dominique Davis – Well, I can’t deny it anymore. Dominique Daivs really deserves this recognition. Of all the quarterbacks on this list, who has the most touchdown passes? That’s right DD, with 31. I just can’t ignore that. Besides, no one past 6 has a realistic chance of winning this award anyway.

10.   Lance Dunbar/Bobby Rainey – Yea, I realize this is a bit of a cop out, but it’s my list and I’ll do as I please with it. You know what makes these guys so good? It’s the fact that both can be in the top ten in the country as runningbacks and both are on terrible teams (North Texas and Western Kentucky respectively). They are probably the two best players in the country, since both are performing this well without a great offensive line, but wins matter and that’s what will keep them from getting real life votes. Well, I’m giving them some well-deserved love and attention for their performances. Keep up the great work guys. 

(If any of you readers have an idea of things you'd like to see covered int he off-season, please leave a suggestion in the comments section. Thank you for reading my material.)