Florida International vs. Toledo
This is all about Florida International’s first trip to a bowl game. While there are numerous match-ups that will determine the outcome of this game, all of that won’t matter if FIU’s players allow themselves to be overwhelmed by the new experience. They do benefit somewhat from facing a Toledo team that has no players that attended their last bowl game (2005) and from question marks at key positions in the Toledo offense.
Florida International has a strong rushing game, in-spite of not having a dominating runningback. They lost starting runningback Jeremiah Harden to a toe injury part way through the season and began to rely on a committee approach with Darriet Perry and Darrian Mallary. That approach worked very well, helping Florida International rank 28th in the country in rushing offense. They’re going to have a tough battle against the stingy Toledo run defense, which features a pair of extremely active linebackers in Dan Molls and Archie Donald. If the FIU offensive line can’t keep those two off of their runnningbacks, they are going to have a tough time running the ball and keeping their offense relatively balanced. To that end, the passing offense is going to have to take advantage of the Toledo secondary, which is prone to being caught out of position. Quarterback Wesley Carroll will have to cut down on the number of passes he tries to force into coverage, which has led to his 13 interceptions, especially considering the 19 interceptions that the Toledo pass defense has secured this season. However he also does a good job spreading the ball around and keeping the electrifying T.Y. Hilton in the game. Hilton is the guy Toledo must watch, in every facet of the game. He is an explosive and dangerous receiver, runner and returner. He should be able to force the Toledo defensive backs to stay back and give the Panthers a big play threat on returns.
Toledo hasn’t slouched on special team either, in-spite of having to shuffle place kickers for most of the season. Returner/Receiver Eric Page ranks fourth in the nation in kick return average and has returned three kicks for touchdowns this season, making for an interesting battle between the special teams. Page also ranks fifth nationally in receptions, taking advantage of his quickness and speed to gain the majority of his yards. The FIU secondary has to do a good job tackling Page, or else he is going to burn them after each catch. The passing game is aided by runningbacks Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams’ ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and keep coverage near the middle, a key in the short outside passing game that Toledo offense emphasizes. Also, wide receiver Kenny Stafford uses his size (6-4) to present match-up problems to an opposing secondary. However all of this depends heavily on which quarterback is playing. The regular starter Austin Dantin is well versed in the Toledo offense, but he missed the final three games of the season with a partially separated shoulder. He is expected to be able to play in this game; however one has to question how good he is going to be come off that injury. While his backup Terrance Owens did lead the Rockets to two victories as a starter, he is far from the best passer and can easily get confused by shifting coverages. FIU does a very good job mixing their coverages from one high safety to two high safeties and, against a young quarterback who has a hard time reading coverage that is a great asset. Should Owens play the majority of the game, Toledo will need to rely heavily on their running game. They probably should lean on that either way, because FIU has a hard time defending the run with undersized and undisciplined defensive tackles Andre Pound and Joshua Forney. Both can be driven off the ball and both struggle to maintain gap control, which will allow the more disciplined Toledo offensive line to drive them off the ball. However their pass protection skills will be put to the tests as these quick tackles and defensive end Tourek Williams will be able to take advantage of any gaps or seams that are left in the pocket. The team’s leader in rushing yards, Adonis Thomas has shown a good ability to work within the offense and should be effective if the offensive line plays well.
Prospects to Watch
Florida International
T.Y. Hilton – Wide Receiver: Much like fellow Sun Belt receiver Jerrel Jernigan, Hilton is an explosive and multi-talented receiver. He has great suddenness and long speed, to go with a good set of hands. When you add all of this to his experience and ability as a returner, you have an attractive draft prospect, should he choose to come out. If he does, he has a chance to be drafted between the 3rd and 6th round.
Toledo
Kevin Kowalski – Offensive Center: A strong and tough leader in the middle, Kowalaksi lacks the kind of athleticism that many would look for in a center. That being said, he is more than willing to engage and play tough against big defensive tackles. He can find a home somewhere between the 5th round and the end of the draft.
Final Pick
Toledo – While I admit the fact that Dantin’s ability to play will have an effect on this pick, I still think that the bright lights of the big stage will overwhelm the FIU Panthers.
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