NFL First Round Mock draft
1. Carolina Panthers – Marcell Dareus – Alabama – Defensive Lineman
While there is a lot of buzz about the Panthers wanting to take a quarterback with the first pick (presumably Cam Newton), I don’t buy it. This pick is really down to Dareus, Von Miller and Patrick Peterson. Peterson would be a good pick for value, but I think that all successful coaches know that you build from the inside out. While Miller could be great, there are players who could excel in the 3-4 or at least compliment Charles Johnson that they could get in the third round (they lack a second round pick), I don’t think they can get the same quality of defensive lineman in that round so Marcell Dareus is the pick.
2. Denver Broncos –Patrick Peterson – LSU – Cornerback
With Dareus gone and Von Miller not being a fit for the 4-3 that John Fox runs, Patrick Peterson slides in as the obvious pick. He’ll pair with Champ Bailey and greatly benefit from the return of a healthy Elvis Dumervil.
3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller – Texas A&M – Outside Linebacker/Defensive End
The Bills get very lucky and have a strong pass rusher fall to them at the third spot. Really there was almost no way from them to lose at this spot since the three best players in this draft fit the basic need of the Bills, defense. Miller is a natural pass rusher and excelled at Texas A&M in the role of a pass-rushing outside linebacker. He should make Bills fans quickly forget about 2009 whiff, Aaron Maybin.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – Nick Fairley – Auburn – Defensive Tackle
While many will point to Carson Palmer’s threats of retirement or Chad Johnson’s increasing age as reasons the Bengals should pick an offensive player, I just don’t see it. Whether or not Carson Palmer is serious about retiring rather than playing for the Bengals again, Mike Brown (the owner) is going to call Palmer’s bluff. In that vein, they just aren’t going to take a quarterback this high in the draft. I also think they’re comfortable with their receivers at this point and would rather address their defense. In that regard, Fairley offers the best value. He is more of an interior pass rusher, which should complement run-stuffer Domata Peko and help ends Carlos Dunlap and Antwan Odom get to the quarterback more consistently.
5. Arizona Cardinals – Blaine Gabbert – Missouri – Quarterback
The Cardinals get the first quarterback off the board with Gabbert. Gabbert has the psychical tools that one needs as a quarterback and is experienced. He will take a while to transition from the spread system he ran at Missouri to the regular pro offense, but he seems to have the mental toughness to hold up during that transition.
6. Cleveland Browns – AJ Green – Georgia – Wide Receiver
While the Browns have other needs, most notably on the defensive side of the ball, Green offers the best value at this spot in the draft. He will give Colt McCoy a true go-to guy at the receiver position and help open up the offense so Peyton Hillis isn’t having the box stacked against him.
7. San Francisco 49ers – Prince Amukamara – Nebraska – Cornerback
With Patrick Paterson gone, the 49ers go for the next best corner on the board. Amukamara is a very aware, fast and physical corner who will at least compliment Nate Clements, though he is more likely to replace Clements as the top corner in San Fran. Da’Quan Bowers and Robert Quinn are also options, but Amukamara is as close to a lock as you’re going to get at this point in the draft.
8. Tennessee Titans – Da’Quan Bowers – Clemson – Defensive End
While the Titans do need a quarterback (unless they wise up and hang onto Vince Young), Bowers is too good to pass up at this point. Bowers can complement Derrick Morgan help get this defense back on track to being great. If the Titans are able to pressure the quarterback, it’ll create more opportunities for their strong defensive backfield to get turnovers.
9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith – USC – Offensive Tackle
At this point in the draft, the Cowboys need to address value more than need. While some would say that Doug Free was a successful find at left tackle, I’d say the way Tony Romo’s season ended is far more telling of how well the Cowboys protected the quarterback last season. I don’t have a lot of faith in smith personally, but the consensus seems to be that he will be the first offensive tackle off the board this year. The Cowboys will probably slide Smith into the right tackle position for the time being and give Free another year to prove himself.
10. Washington Redskins – Cam Newton – Auburn – Quarterback
This pick is here solely because someone is going to take a chance with Newton. Let me be absolutely clear about what I think of Newton. He is a sixth-seventh round pick as a Brad Smith or Antwaan Randle El type athlete. As a quarterback, he is undraftable. As a passer, he’s ten years behind Tim Tebow and will never reach the heights Vince Young has reached. He can’t read defenses, his footwork sucks and he has shown absolutely no amount of maturity in his time at Florida or Auburn. However some people are infatuated with his physical ability and if there is a team stupid enough to draft him, it’s Washington. Enjoy the continued failure at Washington.
11. Houston Texans – J.J. Watt – Wisconsin – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker
Houston’s needs are obvious with their porous defense. While help in the defensive backfield is clearly a need, there is no value for those positions at this spot. I’ve seen Robert Quinn in a lot of other mock drafts, but honestly he’s highly over-valued here. No player who missed an entire season before entering the draft is worth a top-15 pick. Watt is similarly talented and is far more mature.
12. Minnesota Vikings – Anthony Castonzo – Boston College – Offensive Tackle
While the Vikings need a quarterback, they need to be able to protect the quarterback first. Castonzo is the best tackle available. He is very experienced and technically sound. While he doesn’t have a lot of fanfare, he is the kind of player that can come in and play at a high level for the next ten years. This pick would allow the Vikings to move an aging Bryant McKinnie to right tackle and kick Phil Loadholt in to right guard until McKinnie leaves or retires.
13. Detroit Lions – Mike Pouncey – Florida – Offensive Center/Guard
While most talk about the Lions needing help on the defense, they really need to address the offensive line. The injuries to franchise quarterback Matt Stafford are proof enough that the Lions need to improve that offensive line. The question is whether or not they feel the value is at tackle or in the interior. Given the success Maurkice had this past season, I think the Lions look at Mike Pouncey as the key to improving their running game and improving their blitz pickup ability.
14. St. Louis Rams – Julio Jones – Alabama – Wide Receiver
The Rams got a great season out of Sam Bradford (not something I expect to continue), but the offense still really ran through Steven Jackson. While they have a litany of receivers who can be good number 2 or 3 receivers, but no one who can really be a big play threat who can keep the defensive backfield on their heels. Julio Jones is that kind of player (and that was before the amazing combine workout).
15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram – Alabama – Running Back
This is the least surprising pick in the draft. The Dolphins are losing both of their top running backs to free agency this year and neither should that they should remain the top dog in that running back stable this past season. Ingram is a pounder and is a guy who can keep this offense on schedule. He doesn’t have a lot of big play ability, but his consistency will be more valuable than the big play ability.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Robert Quinn – North Carolina – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker
This is a value pick. While the Jags spent a lot of picks on the defensive line last year, Quinn’s physical tools are just too tempting to pass up at this point in the draft. I don’t love it as a pick, but it’s the most likely to happen here.
17. New England Patriots – Cameron Jordan – California – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker
I expect that Patriots to do what they always do and take the player they think is best. In this case, Cameron Jordan is a quality pass-rusher with the kind of experience and mental-makeup that the Pats look for in their draft picks. He might come off the board before this, but I think he’s the kind of guy that Bill Belichick always goes for in these drafts.
18. San Diego Chargers – Muhammad Wilkerson – Temple – Defensive Tackle/End
The Chargers need to help their pass rush to be sure, but I’m not one who thinks they need to replace Larry English as a result. Even if they want to pursue someone in that vein, they can find a player in later rounds that can do that. What they really need is a player along the defensive line who can press the pocket and help open up more opportunities for English and Shaun Phillips. Wilkerson has been sky-rocketing up draft boards the past few months and can bring that kind of pressure from the DE position.
19. New York Giants – Gabe Carimi – Wisconsin – Offensive Tackle
It’s inarguable that the Giants need to improve on their offensive line. They’ve gotten away from the running game in recent years because of inconsistencies in their run blocking and that has resulted in them trying to force too many passes. Carimi can come in a start at right tackle from day one and potentially shift over to left after he has a few years of experience. That addition will help get the Giants back on schedule as an offense.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ryan Kerrigan – Purdue – Defensive End
The Bucs have made a ton of improvements over the last two years and should continue to improve with Rahim Morris at the helm. Even though they picked two defensive linemen with their first two picks last season, they still haven’t been able to replace Simeon Rice at end. While Kerrigan isn’t quite that, he is a solid pass rusher. He (or Cameron Heyward or Adrian Clayborn) will go a long way to helping the Bucs take the next step.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – Aldon Smith – Missouri – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker
The Chiefs finally took a huge step forward in 2010, making the playoffs and getting a lot of their underachieving players to make big contributions. Now they need to add someone to help Tamba Hali rush the passer. With Aldon Smith, and his considerable pass rush ability, sliding down this far, the Chiefs would be well served by going up and grabbing him.
22. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Solder – Colorado – Offensive Tackle
Many of the Colts problems over the past few years have come from the lack of consistent protection. This past year, that fact was painfully obvious. At this point in the draft, Solder is the best remaining offensive lineman on the board and could be the most athletic tackle in this draft. With some technical refinement, he could become the best pure passer blocker in this draft, which would suit the Colts just fine.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – Brandon Harris – Miami (Fl.) – Cornerback
A lot of people see the Eagles going for a tackle here but I just don’t see it. While Winston Justice did have a bad season, the Eagles did give him a big extension just a year ago and it’s only one season. Their bigger problem is the lack of a quality backfield mate for Asante Samuel. At this point, Harris’ athleticism and man to man cover skills make him a better option than the boom or bust potential of Jimmy Smith.
24. New Orleans Saints – Cameron Heyward – Ohio State – Defensive End
Let’s be clear here, the Saints have always had a mediocre to bad defense. Even though they won a Super Bowl two years ago, their defense relied entirely on the turnover. Once those turnovers disappeared, their defense fell apart. The Saints need to build at the core of their defensive and add a player who can complement the talents of Will Smith and Sedrick Ellis. While Heyward isn’t regarded as the best pass rusher available at this point, but he does pressure the quarterback and is a solid run stopper.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Jake Locker – Washington – Quarterback
While Jake Locker isn’t as highly thought of as he was a year ago, he is still a talented player. The Seahawks need to decide what they are going to do with their quarterback spot going forward and bringing Locker in to compete with Charlie Whitehurst will be a step in the right direction. They also have the option of sitting Locker (local product) behind Matt Hasselback for a year or two a letting him develop before shoving him into the spotlight.
26. Baltimore Ravens – Corey Liuget – Illinois – Defensive Tackle
Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has built his reputation on sticking to the board. He always drafts based on the value he sees. In this case, a potential top 15 pick has slid to the 26th pick and I doubt that Newsome will pass up that kind of value. Liuget brings very good athleticism and pass rush ability to the table, which would make him a good complement to the massive bodied Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata.
27. Atlanta Falcons – Derek Sherrod – Mississippi State – Offensive Tackle
While a lot of people have the Falcons going with a defensive player at this pick, I think they’ll bypass a defensive end in favor of addressing their future need of a right tackle. I say this mainly because there are a lot of quality defensive ends in this draft, while not as many quality offensive linemen will be available in later rounds. Derek Sherrod needs to work on improving his strength, but he has the athleticism to succeed in the NFL. He could take a year or two to strengthen himself and then slide into the right tackle sport for the Falcons.
28. New England Patriots – Rahim Moore – UCLA – Free Safety
This pick would surprise a lot or people, but it also makes a lot of sense. While Brandon Meriweather has played well over the past three years, his off-the-field incidents could become too much even for the Patriots. Even if they keep him, Patrick Chung is better playing in the box as opposed to being the centerfielder. Moore has the skills to thrive as a roaming ball hawk and can complement the physicality of Chung or Meriweather.
29. Chicago Bears – Phil Taylor – Baylor – Defensive Tackle
While the Bears need help with their offensive line, they’ve lost on the opportunity drafting this late. Instead they go with a defensive lineman who can help replace Tommie Harris and, eventually, Anthony Adams. Taylor is big, strong and excels at anchoring against the run. He can help take up blockers and press the pocket enough to improve the Bears’ pass rush. He’s also the best value pick at this point in the draft.
30. New York Jets – Brooks Reed – Arizona – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker
While the Jets defense has been great since Rex Ryan arrived, they have yet to find a consistently good pass rusher for the outside linebacker spot. This weakness needs to be addressed if the Jets are going to take the next step to winning a Super Bowl. Reed is smallish and may be a bit too weak to hold up as an every-down player, but he excels at rushing the passer. He has very good speed and is clearly a hard worker who puts effort in on every down. He could definitely help the stagnant Jets pass rush.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jimmy Smith – Colorado – Cornerback
The Super Bowl showed one definite thing about the Steelers defense, they need more depth at corner. They luck out here with Jimmy Smith falling to them here. While there are questions about Smith’s character and instincts, he has enough talent to be a solid starting corner. I personally would pass him over for a different corner, but this is more likely to happen.
32. Green Bay Packers – Adrian Clayborn – Iowa – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker
As well as the Packers played this past season, they are still a team with numerous holes. The outside linebacker spot across from Clay Matthews is not solidified and Cullen Jenkins is likely to leave in free agency. Clayborn slipping to this point in the draft is a great treat for the Packers. He can play either as the down lineman or as the stand-up rush linebacker. He is definitely the best value pick at this point in the draft.
No comments:
Post a Comment