The Thousand Yard Rusher

             It seems almost cliché to say that the NFL is becoming more of passing league in recent years. Actually, it is a cliché and an irrelevant one at that. Yes, three of the last four Super Bowl participants (New Orleans, Indianapolis and Green Bay) and the last two winners (NO, GB) have been far more noted for their passing games than their running games. However, much like their defenses, their running games were often overlooked in favor of focusing on the passing game. While their running games were excellent, they were often at their best when it most needed to be, like when they were killing the clock at the end of games. Regardless of how you look at it, the running game is still important to the winning in the NFL.

                The thousand yard rushing mark is hardly regarded as the accomplishment it once was. It used to be that reaching the one thousand yard mark was a major accomplishment, the mark of an elite running back. The first running back to break the one thousand yard mark was the vastly under-appreciated Beattie Feathers in 1934. He rushed for 1004 yards and 11 touchdowns also setting the record for yards per carry in a season at 8.4. For comparison, when Chris Johnson ran for more than 2000 yards in 2009, he only averaged 5.6 yards per carry and Jamaal Charles, who went for over 1400 yards last year averaged 6.38 yards per carry. The thousand yard rushing mark was very elusive until 1958, when Jim Brown began a streak of five straight rushing titles. His rookie season was the only year where he ran for less than 1200 yards and still won the rushing title. He won eight rushing titles in his nine year career. His rookie season was the last time someone in the NFL won a rushing title in-spite of rushing for less than 1000 yards. That last runner to win a rushing title with less than 1000 yards in any league (AAFC or AFL) was Dickie Post in the AFL in 1969. (Now, before any points it out, yes I am aware Freeman McNeil led the NFL in rushing in 1982, however that was a strike shorten season, so it doesn’t count to me.) On a slight side note, O.J. Simpson was the first running back to run for more than 2000 yards in 1973 when he ran for 2003 yards. That stood as the single season record until Eric Dickerson broke it in 1984 by rushing for 2105 yards, the current record.

                 In the past ten years, it feels like there are no really great running backs because there are fewer and fewer backs who win multiple rushing titles. Through the majority of the 70s, 80s and 90s, the great running backs would usually win at least three rushing titles during their careers. This reached its peak in the 90s when either Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith won the rushing title every year from 1990 to 1997. Since then, Only Edgerrin James and LaDainian Tomlinson have won multiple rushing titles and only two each. Each other year has been a different running back and many of those who have won rushing titles have not seen the same kind of success after winning that title. The aforementioned James and Tomlinson were excellent players; both should be in the Hall of Fame someday, but James never really seemed to get back to that height after his first two years and Tomlinson peaked in the two years he won the rushing title, he has since declined to being a backup. Priest Holmes was actually better in the year following his rushing title, but Ricky Williams was better. Holmes would succumb to injuries in 2004 and retired a few years later. Williams was great in 2002 and 2003, but he clearly was worn down in 2003 and began his on again off again affair with the NFL in 2004. He is currently a backup with the Ravens. Jamal Lewis rushed for the second highest total ever in 2003 with 2066 yards, however a broken ankle derailed his 2004 and he never really had the same pop in his step after that. Curtis Martin was the oldest person to win a rushing title at 31, but he clearly was done after that. He didn’t look quite the same before a knee injury ended his 2005 season and he retired shortly thereafter. Shaun Alexander won not only a rushing title in 2005 but also the NFL MVP. However, following that season and the big contract that came with it, injuries began setting in and Alexander never really got back to the form he once showed. Following two seasons of LT winning, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster each won a rushing title (in the order) and all are still going strong (Chris Johnson’s start to the season notwithstanding.)

                Another major reason that the thousand yard rushing mark has been devalued over recent years has been the reliance on alternative statistics and the perception that rushing for that many yards isn’t special anymore. To the latter, there is some truth to that. Over the past five years, 52 different running backs have gained more than one thousand yards in a season, with no less than 15 achieving the feat each year. That’s about half the starting running backs in the league every year. When that happens, it’s easy to become indifferent to the feat, ignoring how hard it really is. To the former, the trend of using saber metrics in baseball to help determine value has been spilling more and more into football, a sport where statistics tell less than half the story. Now, running backs are being measured more by yards per carry or yard per game as opposed to overall yardage totals, which is fine and good, but not indicative of the whole story. But that is another article. The thousand yard mark needs to be looked at in the context of the player, his team, his overall performance (including receiving stats) and over a course of time. No, a player who runs for one thousand yards in a year is not necessarily elite. However, one who runs for over one thousand yards for four years is quite special. For example, of the 52 I mentioned earlier, 24 were able to repeat the feat and only 4 were able to do it 4 times. Steven Jackson of the Rams led the group, rushing for more than one thousand yards every year, though the measured period included the year before Adrian Peterson joined the NFL. Peterson, Frank Gore and Thomas Jones have also done it four times. Additionally, only Ladianian Tomlinson, Chris Johnson and Jamal Lewis ran for more than one thousand yards three times in that period. So, for the 52 rushers who ran for more than one thousand yards between 2006 and 2010, less than half were able to repeat the feat (about 48%), 13% were able to do it three times, 7% were able to four times and one was able to do it all five years (about 2%).

                Now, with all of that being said, let’s examine the running backs that are likely break the thousand yard mark this season and how they stack up as running backs. The running backs will be presented in the order which they rank in current rushing yardage and a projection will be given as to how many yards and touchdowns they finish with.

Adrian Peterson: Currently: 798 yards, 9TD. Projected: 1596 yards, 18TD.

                What more do I really need to say about him? Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL right now. He plays with power, speed, elusiveness and authority. The only legitimate criticism I’ve heard of him through the course of his career was the fumbling problem he had. However, in the last year and a half, he’s fumbled twice and lost one as opposed to fumbling 20 times and losing 13 of those in his first three years.  He’s clearly improved on the fumbling problem, if not eliminated it entirely. The only other complaints I’ve heard regarding Peterson and his play is that he’s had a hard time outrunning defensive backs. Like a lot of great running backs who have not always made big plays, Peterson gets flak in spite of making plenty of big plays and being better than faster runners who fall off the minute they lose their speed. I he continues at the pace he’s set, Adrian Peterson will find himself in the halls of Canton one day. He hasn’t had a lot 100+ yard games this year (only three) and had an abysmal outing against Chicago gaining only 39 yards. That being said, he still consistently runs hard and plays well, particularly near the goal line. It’s unlikely he’ll be overtaken as the NFL’s leading rusher considering how consistent he is.

LeSean McCoy: Currently: 754 yards, 8TD. Projected: 1508 yards, 16 TD.

                While LeSean McCoy played well last year, he really has been having his big breakout this year, consistently find space and making something happen with his speed and agility. I’ve seen people compare him to Barry Sanders in terms of his ability to make something out of nothing. However I don’t see him as being in that class. He’s done a good job using his speed to blaze past the front line and into the second level consistently. His elusiveness is decent, but he doesn’t consistently break tackles. He’s more of a speed back who excels at getting to the next level than a tackle breaker, that being said he can still break tackles. Really though, he’s succeeded on getting to the second level and out running linebackers into the secondary. He’s also a good weapon out of the backfield, but hasn’t really been used that way this year, so it doesn’t come that much into play. He’ll likely finish with the best average of yards per carry, though that rarely holds up in the long term.

Maurice Jones-Drew: Currently: 740 yards, 3 TD. Projected: 1480 yards, 6 TD.

                If there has been a rusher that has been great at making something out of nothing this year, it’s been Maurice Jones-Drew. In spite of him playing behind one of the most inconsistent and injury laden offensive lines in the NFL, MJD has been able to create space with subtle jukes and will run through any individual tackles. He still is a receiving threat, though with the inconsistent quarterback play, it’ll hardly make a difference. He’s arguably having the best year of any running back this year, considering his supporting cast.

Fred Jackson: Currently: 721 yards, 6 TD. Projected: 1442 yards, 12 TD

                Fred Jackson has been having a huge breakout season. He’s played with a good balance of speed and power. His main talent is being able to run through a tackle and break into the secondary with his very good speed. Once there he has enough elusiveness to make the safeties and corners miss. He’s also been invaluable in the receiving game, being able to make tackler miss in the open field and blaze away for big plays. As long as the blocking stays good he should have no problem keeping up this pace.

Frank Gore: Currently: 675 yards, 5 TD. Projected:  1350 yards, 10 TD.

                Frank Gore came into this season with a lot of questions revolving around how much longer he could a viable option at running back for the 49ers. He was coming off of a broken hip injury which ended his season prematurely in 2010 and he is coming close to the magic decline age of 30. These fears were not helped by his uncharacteristically slow start over the first three games, failing to rush for more than 59 years in each of those games. However, over the next four games (they had their bye week in this stretch) he didn’t fail to run for less than 120 yards each games. He has a lot of power and still has good breakaway speed, so I expect him to continue to pound the rock for the Niners, right into the playoffs.

Matt Forte: Currently: 672 yards, 2 TD. Projected: 1344 yards, 4 TD.

                Like Gore, Forte didn’t break 100 yards rushing through any of the first three games of the season. However, unlike Gore, Forte made up for it by catching 22 passes for 280 yards over that time frame, never having less than 80 yards receiving over that three game stretch. Forte then broke out with a 205 yard masterpiece against the panthers and hasn’t looked back. He’s becoming the Marshall Faulk of the era, consistently playing as a rushing and receiving threat. Though he’s not quite as elusive as Faulk was, he has the long speed and a bit more power than Faulk had. He should have little trouble breaking the thousand yard barrier this year and very well could earn himself MVP honors.

Michael Turner: Currently: 621 yards, 6 TD. Projected: 1242 yards, 12 TD.

                Michael Turner has been up and down this year, but still has played with power and speed during the course of the year. He did have a stretch between the 3^rd and 5^th game where he didn’t break one hundred yards. But he’s come back and is still a hard charging running that is hard to bring down. If Atlanta can keep him going, they should be able to recover from their slow start to make the playoffs.

Darren McFadden: Currently: 614 yards, 4 TD. Projected: 1228 yards, 8 TD.

                Darren McFadden broke out last year, showing the speed and power that Al Davis imagined he would show when he drafted him in 2008. He was looking like the he was going to continue in that vein at the beginning of the year, however the last three games he played he didn’t break one hundred yards before he suffered a hamstring injury which knocked him out of the Kansas City game and will force him to miss this week’s game. He still will likely break the thousand yard mark, but it might be tough.

Arian Foster: Currently: 532 yards, 4 TD. Projected: 1064 yards, 8 TD.

                Last year’s rushing champion missed two of the first three games with an injury, then he came back to form with 150+ rushing yards against Pittsburgh. Since then he’s been doing his best Matt Forte imitation, becoming a threat in the receiving game when he isn’t rushing well. He’s probably not going to win the rushing title again, but he’s still providing the balance to the Houston offense that they’ve needed for the past few years.

Ryan Mathews: Currently: 509 yards, 3 TD. Projected: 1018 yards, 6 TD.

                In spite of an injury riddled rookie season, Ryan Mathews has shown the ability that made the Chargers trade up to get him in the 2010 draft. The problem really is that he hasn’t been used enough, getting less than 20 carries in five out of seven games this year. The Chargers need to take advantage of his good play more.

Ben Tate: Currently: 508 yards, 1 TD. Projected: 1016 yards, 2 TD.

                Ben Tate was supposed to be the main runner in Houston, but a leg injury made him miss most of his rookie season, allowing Arian Foster to breakout. In the games that Foster missed this year, Tate has shown the running ability that everyone thought he had when he was drafted. He’s earned more carries, even though Foster is healthy and both could break the thousand yard mark.

Beanie Wells: Currently: 506 yards, 7 TD. Projected: 1012 yards, 14 TD.

                Beanie Wells has only had one game or more than one hundred yards but has been consistent as a runner, powering through a lot of tackles and strong at the red zone. However, the last three games he’s played, he has had a harder and harder time getting yards. To be fair though, those were against some of the stronger defenses in the NFL. He will probably break one thousand yards, but it may not be as impressive as they thought at the beginning of the year.