Uggh, the quality of my NFL picks is starting to invade the quality of my College Picks. I went 16-8 last week, putting me at 106-28 for the season. I'm hoping i can do better with these week's selection.
#1 Ohio State @ #18 Wisconsin *Game of the Week*
I really thought (and still to a degree do) think that this was going to be the game that determined the Big Ten champion. While Wisconsin’s loss to the still undefeated Michigan State leaves me a little disillusioned, I still believe these are two of the top three teams in the conference. There are two questions that Wisconsin will have to answer in order to prove that they can beat Ohio State. One is whether to not their defense can stop Ohio State’s offense and the other is whether or not the Wisconsin offense can score in big enough bunches to keep pace with the Ohio State offense if their defense is not up to the task. Wisconsin has been using a very ground based offense, which chew up clock and wears down a defense, but it also is rarely explosive and requires a lot of time to be effective. Ohio State has shown the ability to be explosive, which will make it difficult for Wisconsin to keep pace. I’m going with Ohio State for these reasons, but I am really hoping that Wisconsin wins and allows Boise State some amount of recognition. (Though we know they won’t get it.)
#2 Oregon: Bye
#3 Boise State @ San Jose State
I will give San Jose State this much, they tried to give themselves the best chance they could to make a BCS bowl game this season. Think about it; if San Jose State was undefeated at this point in the season, they would have defeated Alabama, Wisconsin, Nevada and Utah coming into this week. However, they aren’t, and they aren’t leaving this week with a win. Boise State rolls.
BYU @ #4 TCU
Coming into this year I would have selected this as game of the week. However, replacing Max Hall at quarterback has not been as seamless as BYU thought it would be. TCU has been great, but most not underestimate the potential offensive explosion that BYU’s offensive scheme represents. The potential for an upset is there, but I doubt it will happen. TCU wins.
Texas @ #5 Nebraska
Ugh, this is a tough game for me to pick. I’ve seen Nebraska a couple of time this year, and each time I’m amazed that they are able to do what they do. Their defense has been very good and they have gotten amazing play from Taylor Martinez, their quarterback. He has opened up their running game in much the same way that Pat White opened up the West Virginia running game. Texas, on the other hand, has looked about as good as would expect them to look with a new quarterback under center. I think Nebraska has a huge advantage with arguably the best cornerback prospect in the country, Prince Amukamara, facing off against first year starter Garrett Gilbert. I think Nebraska wins because this match-up highlights the mismatch of the strong, experienced defense of the Cornhuskers against the inexperience of Garrett Gilbert. Turning the ball over is going to kill the Longhorns chances of winning this game.
Iowa State @ #6 Oklahoma
While Iowa State is taking some good steps forward, those are not enough to match the high flying offense of the Oklahoma Sooners.
#12 Arkansas @ #7 Auburn
If you peel away the meaning behind the Ohio State/Wisconsin, this is probably the better matchup. The high-flying Ryan Mallett versus the clutch Cam Newton, which could lead to high scoring game. Ultimately though, I think that the team with the superior defense will ultimately win this game. While Arkansas has the better defense based on points allowed, I think that Auburn has looked better and they should be able to make the key turnovers when it counts the most. I’m calling for Auburn to win.
Mississippi @ #8 Alabama
Poor Mississippi. They now have to deal with an angry Alabama team, which is coming off of their first loss in 19 games. I highly doubt that they’re going to be able to hang with Alabama in this game. Roll Tide.
McNeese State @ #9 LSU
……Yeah, LSU wins.
#10 South Carolina @ Kentucky
Well South Carolina, you’ve defeated the number one ranked team in the country for the first time in your school’s history, what are you going to do now? Well, since Disney World is out of the question, how about showing up to defeat your next opponent? Ok, let me be fair, South Carolina is the better team and under normal circumstances should have no problem defeating a team like Kentucky. However, these are far from normal circumstances. South Carolina just had their proverbial “Pandemonium in Piscataway” moment. I really think there will be a certain amount of hangover from that win. So solely on the basis of that, and completely ignoring the fact that Kentucky is winless in the SEC, I am picking Kentucky for the win.
#11 Utah @ Wyoming
I guess I was wrong about Wyoming. They just haven’t put everything together enough for them to really compete consistently in the Mountain West, at least not yet. Utah is going to win.
Illinois @ #13 Michigan State
Michigan State has been surprisingly successful this season and I doubt that they are going to be derailed by the mediocre (at best) Illinois team. Spartans win.
#14 Stanford: Bye
#15 Iowa @ Michigan
This is an interesting match-up. Michigan is looking to regain some momentum following their crushing loss to Michigan State, while Iowa is fighting to maintain their standing in the Big Ten. I know Arizona was able to defeat Iowa, but Arizona relied on big plays from Nick Foles at the end of the game to win. I think that the Iowa defense is athletic enough, and strong enough at the edges to prevent Denard Robinson from having a big game. Iowa wins.
Boston College @ #16 Florida State
Boston College has been very disappointing this season and is a program clearly on the decline. I doubt they’ll be able to keep pace with the high flying Florida State offense. Seminoles win.
#17 Arizona @ Washington State
Arizona is going to be angry after their defeat at the hands of Oregon State and poor Washington State is going to be the victim of that ire. Arizona wins.
#19 Nevada @ Hawaii
Hawaii surprised me with their big victory against Fresno State last week. They might surprise in this game, however, I am not betting against Nevada in a game this big. Wolfpack wins.
#20 Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech
Another game that should be high scoring, I’m not so sure that this game will be as good as some of the others that these teams have been involved with. While Oklahoma State’s defense has shown the ability to take the ball away, their offense has shown the ability to give the ball up just as much. I’m not necessarily of the opinion that the Texas Tech defense will be able to force those turnovers; it’s more a matter of the Oklahoma State offense giving them up. I’m picking the upset and saying that Texas Tech wins.
#21 Missouri @ Texas A&M
I think this game plays out a lot like the last game, with the minor exception that Missouri will win and not turn the ball over as much. Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson has shown all the talent to be a top notch quarterback, but also the tendency to try to force the ball into tight coverage that just won’t do.
Mississippi State @ #22 Florida
I think this is the game where Florida’s offense returns to form against a Mississippi State team that has played well, just not so well in the SEC.
#23 Air Force @ San Diego State
There’s an interesting contrast in style here. Air Force has had a dominant running game while San Diego State relies heavily on the spread passing game. I’m going with Air Force in this one, because I think they’ll be able to control the clock very well and because I don’t think San Diego State is ready for an upset of this magnitude just yet.
#24 Oregon State @ Washington
Washington seems to have taken a step back from their successes last year. I think they have the talent to upset Oregon State, but I just don’t think they have the confidence to do so right now. Oregon State wins.
South Florida @ #25 West Virginia
Up until a week ago, I would have taken South Florida in this game. West Virginia has looked like a very up and down team and simply doesn’t look like a team that would be able to handle tough battle against a conference opponent. But, then South Florida was beaten by Syracuse. Granted, Syracuse is a better team this year than they were in years previous, it still didn’t inspire enough confidence in me to pick them over West Virginia tonight.
Other Games of Note
North Carolina State @ East Carolina
I know I’m giving a great selection, however this is the only one that gains my interest. This is a “Show-me” game for East Carolina. If they are the real deal, they will be able to pull this enormous upset. However, I think North Carolina State is having a season to remember and will win this game.
Top 10 Heisman Candidates
1. Kellen Moore – Another week at the top.
2. Terrelle Pryor – Recovering from his injury rather well, Pryor had an excellent game.
3. Colin Kaepernick – Another excellent game keep him at number three.
4. John Clay – He recovered well from the lost against Michigan State, having a three touchdown game. He keeps his spot because of this, but another bad game will drop him off the list entirely.
5. Andrew Luck – Beating down USC always gets points in my book.
6. Nick Foles – Played very well in spite of the loss. Great underrated player.
7. Matt Barkley – As much as I hate to admit it, Barkley also had a really good game and shouldn’t lose points for the loss.
8. Ryan Mallett – Recovered well from the loss and kept himself in contention.
9. LaMichael James – Astonishingly, James has been able to overcome the missed game to fight his way into contention for the Heisman.
10. Justin Blackmon – Another surprise on this list, Blackmon has seamlessly transitioned into the big play role that Dez Bryant occupied when he was with the Cowboys. If he can continue this kind of production, he may find his way to NYC for the Heisman presentation.
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