Thursday, September 2, 2010

Top 25 Heisman Candidates (Week 1)

1. Dion Lewis – As a true freshman, rushing for nearly 1800 yards and 17 touchdowns. Now in his sophomore season, with a new quarterback, the focus of the offense will be on him. If he can be as good as he was a year ago, he’ll be a strong candidate for the Heisman, possibly even challenging all-time single season rushing mark.



2. Kellen Moore – Probably the best college quarterback returning this season, Kellen Moore is among my favorites to win the Heisman trophy. He was second in the country last season in passing efficiency and had thirty-nine touchdown passes against only three picks. Since winning the starting job in 2008, Kellen Moore has lost only one game, that being a close loss to TCU in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl. That kind of record is likely to continue as the junior quarterback returns with a mostly intact offense and defense. While it will be difficult if not impossible for him to repeat the kind of production he had a season ago, it is not unlikely that he will be able to produce like a Heisman winner. The chemistry he shares with his receivers, his familiarity with his offense and most importantly, his familiarity with his opponent’s defenses, all give him a major advantage over other quarterbacks who are being considered for the Heisman. Other quarterbacks will likely have more eye-popping numbers; none will be as efficient as Moore.



3. Terrelle Pryor – While I won’t goes as far as saying that Pryor is going to make the kind of jump that Vince Young made between his sophomore and junior season, Pryor showed enough skill during Ohio State’s Rose Bowl victory to give me hope. If he can be a consistent dual threat, in the way that Troy Smith was when he won the Heisman.



4. Mark Ingram – This one is pretty obvious; selecting last year’s Heisman winner as the best Heisman candidate on his own team. While I didn’t believe that Ingram had a good enough season last year to win the Heisman over Ndamukong Suh, the fact remains that his bruising running style and penchant for running harder as the game goes on, has allowed Alabama to control the clock. It’s this kind of clock control that allowed Alabama to rely so heavily upon their defense last season. This year, the offensive focus will again be on Ingram and he should deliver with a veteran offensive line in front of him. He should be able put up the same kind of numbers this season, but the lower win total will likely hurt his chances.



5. JacQuizz Rogers – 22 total touchdowns last season combined with over 2,000 all-purpose yards put the younger Rogers brother in an excellent position to compete for a Heisman Trophy.



6. Ryan Williams – Noticing a theme yet? Much like Rogers, Williams scored 22 total touchdowns and rush for over 1600 yards. He’s a favorite in the minds of many pundits, but don’t like his chances as much. There are two main reasons I have him ranked lower than Rogers. One is the fact that he doesn’t catch the ball as much as Rogers and two is the fact that he is going to be splitting carries with the returning Darren Evans. Even if the splitting carries is going to keep him fresher, it also limits the number of yards he can put up.



7. Case Keenum – While Keenum has never been as efficient as Kellen Moore, he excels in the Houston offense and puts up monster statistics every year. Even though it will be difficult to repeat his numbers from last season, the numbers he does put up should be enough to get him plenty of consideration for the Heisman.



8. John Clay – The hefty in this list, John Clay continues the great history of big runningbacks that Wisconsin has established over the past 15 years. From Ron Dayne to Anthony Davis to P.J. Hill, Wisconsin has lead bigger runningbacks to highly productive seasons. That will be no different this season. I expect to see him score another 15+ touchdowns and, if the Badgers challenge for the Big Ten title, he’ll find his way to New York.



9. LaMichael James – Even though he will be suspended for a game due to legal troubles, LaMichael James is the player through which most of the team’s offense will be focused. With a new quarterback playing, it will be as important as ever for him to have a dominant season. If he can reproduce the kind of season he had last year (1500+ yards and 14 touchdowns), with the spotlight on him this time, he should receive serious Heisman consideration.



10. Noel Devine – If Wisconsin is known for their big backs, then West Virginia is known for their smaller backs. Though the history is not as long, it’s every bit as successful, at least in recent years. Going from ‘Stunted’ Steve Slaton (a great Heisman candidate during his career) to ‘Nativity Piece’ Noel Devine (I never claimed to be great at giving nicknames), the Mountaineers have excelled with smaller, more explosive runners in their zone-blocking, spread option offense. While the 1400+ yards and 13 touchdowns are impressive, the thing that sets Devine apart from the pack is his 6.1 average yards per carry. Keep an eye on this little pack of dynamite.



11. Ryan Mallett – 30 touchdowns to only 7 picks in a major conference would get anyone on this list. The thing that keeps Mallett this high is the fact that he did that with a minimal running game last year. As the focal point of this offense, he is going to put up good numbers; the only question that remains is how that will affect the Razorbacks record. If they challenge for the SEC title, then he’ll get more consideration, if not, then you probably won’t hear too much about him until draft day.



12. Jake Locker - If any player on the Washington roster has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy, its Jake Locker. His continued development would bring with it the kinds of offensive numbers that voters are looking for in a Heisman candidate. He will need to improve greatly (in the area of 50 touchdown passes) for him to be considered since Washington is unlikely to be competing for a BCS title.



13. Matt Barkley - It’s a lot like other teams with Barkley. While Barkley has given little indication that he is capable of putting up the kind of numbers that would be required for him to be seriously considered for the Heisman trophy, if anyone on this team is going to compete for this award, it is going to be Barkley. He is the key to USC succeeding, and the more that USC succeeds, the more momentum Barkley gains on the road to the Heisman.



14. Evan Royster - While not necessarily thought of in the best light by scout’s because he has no outstanding qualities, Royster still has shown enough talent to be worth a pick in the second day (rounds 2-3). He really comes off as a poor man’s Joseph Addai; not really fast or powerful, but does all of the little things right and finds ways to be productive in spite of his shortcomings. A team who’s looking for a backup runningback who does all of the little things right could do worse than Evan Royster.



15. Christian Ponder – This is one of those rare cases where I’m not sure why this player is on this list. After seeing him on list after list of top quarterback prospects and Heisman candidates I just felt I had to include him. He has respectable numbers, but not breaking 3000 passing yards or even 15 touchdowns is just not Heisman material in my mind, though the near 70% completion percentage is impressive. A big jump will need to be made by him if he wants to climb my list, but he could still find himself a finalist in spite of what I think.



16. Jacory Harris – Now this is more of the guy I would think of as a Hesiman Finalist. Harris showed a great ability to work a defense which he combined with a powerful arm to become a dangerous passer. He does need to improve on his accuracy and cut down on the interceptions, but he is a dangerous player who could help resurrect the great quarterback legacy of “Da U.”



17. Colin Kaepernick - While not the best passer in the country, Kaepernick is one of those players who can make an impact in multiple ways. In addition to his 20 touchdown passes, he also was the second leading rusher (1183 yards) on the team and led the team in rushing touchdowns (16). All of that while having two other rushers who surpassed 1,000 yards rushing. This upcoming season sees him robbed of third leading rusher Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards and 9 touchdowns), starting center Kenneth Ackerman and left tackle Alonzo Durham. If he can maintain his production as both a rusher and passer (if not improve as a passer) he could very well find himself next to fellow candidate Kellen Moore in New York for the Heisman presentation.



18. Jerrod Johnson – It would surprise many fans, including myself that Jerrod Johnson put up numbers very similar to Ryan Mallett. He threw only one more interception than Mallett and scored an additional 8 touchdowns rushing. Even though Johnson is more of a running threat than Mallet, he also has a better running game, lending a bit more weight to Mallet’s numbers. But Johnson is not going to sneak up on anyone this season.



19. Andrew Luck - Should the Stanford Cardinals push for a Pac-10 title, it will be because of the offensive prowess and development of the redshirt sophomore quarterback. He will need to become a better decision-maker and become more wary of the hazards of running from the pocket. Should this development take place he would put up at least solid stats, potentially great stats, he will be following his teammate (Gerhart) to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony.



20. Blaine Gabbert – Continuing in the vein of highly productive Missouri quarterbacks under Gary Pinkel, Gabbert is quickly beomcing one of the best quarterbacks in the Big-12 and in the country. While the system has something to do with it, the fact is the he, like Brad Smith and Chase Daniel before him, execute that offense with nearly flawless poise. He may need another year of experience to really challenge for the Heisman, but to count him out of this Heisman race would be a mistake.



21. Landry Jones – Thee simple fact that he replaced a Heisman Trophy winning player (Sam Bradford) and performed BETTER than that player did that the point in his career, should be all I need to explain this selection. Though somewhat inconsistent a year ago, Landry Jones should take the steps necessary to become the dominant quarterback in the Big 12. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to find him on the Heisman Finalist list.



22. Garrett Gilbert – Despite only starting one game during his short career at Texas, Gilbert impressed me enough during that game to make this list. He has a good grasp of the Texas offense and showed during the game against Alabama that he can make adjustments and improve as the game went along. If he can do that over the course of a season and Texas make a repeat trip to the BCS title game, then he could find himself as a surprise Heisman finalist. At least a surprise to most pundits.



23. Michael Floyd - One of the top receivers in college football, Michael Floyd is also one of the few wide receivers who has a legitimate shot at being the Heisman winner without doubling as a return man. Last season, he was able to average 18.1 yards per reception and pull down nine touchdowns, in spite of missing five games with injuries. He broke out, becoming a big play threat that defenses must plan around. This season, he loses experienced quarterback Jimmy Clausen and big play teammate Golden Tate, not even bringing up how the loses at the offensive line are going to affect his production. If he can continue to be the big play threat he was last season, with all the inexperience around him and defenses keying on him, he has a great chance of being the first non-runningback/quarterback Heisman winner since Charles Woodson in 1997 and the first wide receiver to win since Desmond Howard in 1991.



24. A.J. Green – In spite of not breaking 1,000 receiving yards in either of his first two years as a starter, Green is considered one of, if not the, most talented receivers in the country. His explosiveness has allowed him to average over fifteen yards per catch each of those two seasons. The main reason he is this low on the list is the fact that he has a freshman quarterback and doesn’t return punts or kicks. While the freshman quarterback may be encouraged to feed the ball to him, there is no guarantee that he’ll be able to complete the passes. The lack of return yard will further hinder his potential, since most receivers need to have those extra numbers to get serious consideration.



25. Julio Jones – Every bit as good a player as Greene, the only thing that is keeping Julio Jones from surpassing the Georgia prospect, is the focus on the running game. It’s also not a good sign for Greg McElroy when a no-name is being given more credit as a passer than him.

Other Contenders: John Brantley, Ricky Dobbs, Josh Nesbitt, DeMarco Murray, Anthony Allen, Tyrod Taylor, Eddie Wide, Tate Forcier, G.J. Kinne, Roy Helu, Montel Harris, Jon Baldwin, DeAndre Brown, B.J. Daniels, Robert Griffin, Tom Savage, Russell Wilson, Zach Collaros, Tyler Potts, Ryan Broyles, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Lindley, Donald Buckram, Dwight Dasher, Jordan Todman

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