Sunday, January 23, 2011

Championship Weekend Preview

                GB vs. CHI

                                 While they split the series over the course of the regular season, it’s difficult to say how good of an indicator those games were. In the first game, the Packers were still dealing with the loss of Ryan Grant to injury and in the second game the Bears really didn’t have anything to play for. Since the playoffs began, James Starks has given the Packers the kind of running game that they have lacked up to this point. He may not break off huge runs or have any kind of pack-breaking power, but he gets the tough yards when the Packers need them the most. His tough running, combined with a variety of run heavy packages the Packers utilize to pound opposing defenses, has provided enough balance to allow the passing game to flourish. However the Bears are strong in the middle of their defense and have a relatively deep secondary. The Bears have also done a very good job casing turnovers and forcing opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions. While they didn’t get any turnovers in their first game against Seattle (and the score would indicate that they allowed a relatively weak offense to dominate them,) they were able to make plays when they needed to, and only in the end of the game when they eased off the gas pedal did they allow the Seahawks back in it.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview

                BAL vs. PIT

                                 Perhaps we should refer to this as the body-bag rivalry; there are enough injuries every time these two teams face off for it to qualify.  While the regular season saw these teams play two very tight games, it simply may not be the case this time. Both teams do know each other’s scheme’s fairly well, however the Ravens have struggled more through the season to have a dynamic, quick strike passing offense and, more importantly, to have a shutdown passing defense. While the Chiefs struggled to get their passing game going, it was more a case of the Chiefs not having receivers, other than Dwayne Bowe, who were capable of creating separation against the Ravens secondary.

Monday, January 10, 2011

BCS National Championship Game Preview

Oregon vs. Auburn  

                I’m not really sure what I can say about these hasn’t already been said, but to me this game basically boils down to this: Can the Auburn defense slow down the Oregon offense enough for Auburn to win the game? Oregon likes to run their offense at warp-speed, getting up to the line and snapping the ball as fast as possible, by doing this, they limit the number of substitutions their opponents can make. This allows young quarterback Darron Thomas to make simple reads and decisions about whether or not he keeps the ball in the zone read option. Thomas is a dangerous runner, but the big play threat that got Oregon here has been LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. Both of whom have excellent speed and are difficult to tackle in the open field. The Auburn defensive backs and linebacker must be able to wrap up James and Barner when given the opportunity. Also, as odd as it sounds, the linebackers and defensive backs cannot simply maintain their gap assignments and wait for the ball to come to them, because of the speed of the Oregon runners. Instead they must attack the running lanes before the runners have a chance to get the edge. However this means that the defensive backs must also be strong in coverage, as Oregon likes to use misdirection and play-action to help open up the passing game. Man coverage will help limit communications breakdowns in the secondary, but the misdirection plays will be difficult for the Auburn corners not to bite on. Auburn does have one major advantage in the play of Nick Fairley, who is almost unblockable one-on-one. He should be able to slow down the rushing offense by penetrating along the interior and forcing runs to bounce further outside than they should. This will give the linebackers and defensive backs more time to determine who has the ball and pursue that ball carrier.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Preview

Nevada vs. BC

                On the eve of the BCS national title game, one of the best match-ups of offense versus defense that has been seen all year.

                Nevada, while known more for their upset of Boise State, has been a solid team for a number of years. They like to build their offense around the running of both Vai Taua and Colin Kaepernick; the zone read option being their play of choice. The thing that makes this unique as compared to every other team running the zone-read option, is the fact that they run out of the pistol formation. Nevada head coach Chris Ault was the innovator of the Pistol offense and has found numerous different ways to exploit opponents and get the absolute most out of his players when running in this offense. Taua provides a great deal of power and downhill running potential which is a great compliment to Kaepernick’s deceptive speed from the quarterback position. Both have rushed for over one thousand yards and combined for 39 touchdowns. However they will be challenged by the best run defense in the country. The Boston College defensive line is great at occupying blocks and allowing Luke Kueckly, Mark Herzlich and Kevin Pierre-Louis to roam and run freely to the ball-carrier. While they will need to be disciplined against the zone-read option they must also be disciplined against the play-action. Kaepernick is very good at ball-faking and has a strong enough arm to stretch the ball downfield. Nifty receiver Rishard Mathews and tight end Virgil Green are good at stretching the field and the Boston College secondary is prone to biting on play-fakes.

                The Boston College offense will be benefitted by the return of runningback and offensive focal point Montel Harris. Harris and backup Andre Williams need to see a lot of carries in this game because true freshman quarterback Chase Rettig is far from the best decision maker. Also, while Nevada’s secondary occasionally has issues locating the ball in flight, Boston College receivers aren’t particularly athletic and will need to use their moves to create separation. Even then, the pass should be used only to move the chain on third downs. Though Harris and Williams have been effective, they may have a hard time moving the ball against the athletic and active Nevada defense.

Prospects to Watch

                Nevada

                                Dontay Moch – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Moch has really been an underrated story through the course of the season in college football. In the past three years (2008-to this game), Moch has racked up 59.5 tackles for loss (63 for his career) and 26.5 sacks. That kind of production is just plain great. While he may not wow anyone with his size (though he is the prototypical size you’d like to have for an outside linebacker/defensive end), his speed off the first step is top-notch. He has a great motor when pursuing the quarterback and has great range against the run. He’s the kind of player who can who can chase a runningback out of bounds when they try to break their run to the outside. However, he is not a particularly strong player. He struggles to anchor himself against runs and can be locked out by bigger tackles. He will probably need to be moved to outside linebacker regardless of which team drafts him. He has the range to be a good coverage player, but is inexperienced in that role and would fit better in a 3-4. Look for him to go between the 3rd and 5th round.

                BC

                                Anthony Castonzo – Offensive Tackle: While Castonzo lacks ideal bulk and may never be the kind of mauler in the run game that some teams may want; he is still a top-end pass protector. His long arms make it difficult for opposing rushers to get around him and he has the ability to move and engage those rushers if they don’t try a double move. He generally uses good technique and has great awareness to pass off rushers and identify blitzers. However he does occasionally over-extend and will engage the first rusher he sees, making him a bit more vulnerable to delayed blitzes. His run blocking is less than stellar and he can stop his feet on occasion. He’ll need to work on these technique flaws, but has shown that he is a hard enough worker to correct these mistakes. He is projected to go between the late first and early second round.

Final Pick

                Nevada – Colin Kaepernick is a great asset within Nevada’s offense while Craig Rettig is still a detriment to the Boston College offense. 

Saturday, January 8, 2011

BBVA Compass Bowl Preview

Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky  

                Kentucky’s offense has to go through runningback Derrick Locke if they want a chance to win this game. Regular starting quarterback Mike Hartline has been suspended for an off-the-field incident that took place in early December and now the Wildcats have to count on Morgan Newton to lead their passing offense. Newton is nowhere near the kind of passer that Hartline is. His accuracy is not where it should be to face this kind of defense, which does well against the pass by rushing the passer and forcing the opposing quarterback into making bad decisions. If the Wildcats passing offense is going to get into into any sort of a rhythm, they’re going to need to get Newton some easy completions early and protect Newton from the pass rush of Pittsburgh. This will mean limited touches down the field for talented wideout Randall Cobb. Kentucky offensive coordinator Randy Sanders will need to find creative ways to get the ball into Cobb’s hands to pull some of the pressure off of Locke and Newton, who is a good runner. If they can find ways to get Locke and Cobb in space with the ball, Kentucky may be able to find a way to move the ball consistently against a less than stellar tackling secondary of the Pittsburgh Panthers.

                On the other side, Pitt has a pair of small, but dangerous runners in Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. Both have the ability to find lanes behind their big offensive line. Also the Kentucky defenders have a hard time gaining leverage and getting off blocks. They need to be able slowdown that running game, because they would have a better chance of forcing turnovers against starting quarterback Tino Sunseri, who has made questionable decisions in the past and is young enough to be confused by rotating coverage looks. However that may not be enough against the talents of Johnny Baldwin, who can knife through zone coverage like no-one else and is difficult to match-up with man-on-man. Corners Randall Burden and Anthony Mosley are also going to need to show great discipline against the passing game, because the Panthers like to use double moves to take advantage of the great speed of Baldwin.

Prospects to Watch

                Pittsburgh

                                Johnny Baldwin – Wide Receiver: While Baldwin still needs to work a bit on his separation skills; he is an elite prospect who reminds me a little bit of Randy Moss in his skill set. He has natural hands and dominant long speed, made easier by his long striding legs. He effortlessly tracks the ball in the air and is big enough to win 99% of the jump ball. He is also a strong competitor and has the frame to eat-up opposing corners in run blocks. He could be more consistent in this area, but with his ability to just quickly eat up off-coverage, this is a minor issue. Baldwin should go solidly in the first round, as long as he comes out.
 
                Kentucky

                                Derrick Locke – Runningback: Locke is woefully undersized, but he brings great speed and open field talents. He also has great explosiveness and quickness that should help any team looking for a good change of pace back. Locke also has experience returning kicks and is dangerous in that aspect of the game as well adding to his stock. He may never be a starting runningback, but he can certainly contribute to special teams and give an occasional big play to the offense. He could go in the 7th round if he tests well.

Final Pick

                Pittsburgh – Regardless of how many times I am wrong, I think losing the starting quarterback is just too damaging for a team to make up for. Pittsburgh will take advantage of that fact to beat down on Newton and the Wildcats. 

Wild Card Weekend Preview

                GB vs. PHI

                                 This game is all about the pressure. Which team can force more of it, and which team is better prepared to handle it. The Packers have been all about the pass setting up their (very limited) running game. Regardless of how good Matt Flynn looked against the Patriots in his only start, he is not good enough to be able to counter the talented Philadelphia secondary. However, Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have nearly as much trouble dealing with this secondary that is, while talented, very hurt. The Eagles have lost two of their starters in the secondary as well as their middle linebacker to injury, leaving them somewhat lacking in the coverage department. The Eagles need to be able to generate pressure with their front four if they want to disrupt the timing of Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. On the flip side, the Packers not only need to get good pressure from Clay Matthews and Frank Zombo on the outside, but they also need Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji to continue to push the pocket to force Michael Vick to make mistakes. Minnesota laid out a blue print when they knocked Vick around, by using the corner blitz to catch him off guard. Charles Woodson is very good at coming on the blitz and causing turnovers. If the Packers can bring Woodson on the blitz and have solid play by the other corners, they might be able to stop the high-powered, Vick led offense. The Eagles should try and utilize screens as often as they can to pull back the dangerous Packers pass rush. Lesean McCoy and Jerome Harrison are great receivers and dangerous in the open field, as is Desean Jackson. If the Eagles can utilize those screens in the face of the blitz, they have a great chance to break some big plays.

                Against the Spread: Philadelphia comes into this game a three point favorite. While their normally explosive offense is dangerous, their defense has been decimated through the entire season by injuries. Talent-wise are still very good defensively, however their lack of depth is concerning when facing the deep Packers receiving corp. I’m still taking the Eagles to win the game, but I’m also taking the points.


NO vs. SEA

                                Well this certainly doesn’t seem right does it? The 11-5 New Orleans Saints needing to travel to the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs. Well regardless of whether it’s fair or not fair, that is the challenge placed before the Saints in this game. When these teams locked up earlier in the season, the Seahawks were unable to get a single sack and lost by 15 in spite of picking Drew Brees off twice. However this game is far different than that game was. That game was in New Orleans, this one is in Seattle. I know some people would discount the effect that has, however it matters a great deal. First off, you have the wild Seattle crowd, which help make Qwest Field one of the loudest places to play in the NFL. The Saints will need to be very disciplined and aware of the snap count. Secondly, you have the Seattle weather. While rain is far more common than snow, for a dome team like New Orleans, playing in cold rain may be all it takes to throw them out of their comfort zone. Thirdly, there’s the actually travel involved. Going across country is a difficult thing to do when you need to add in the preparation for a football game. Jet-lag may seem like a necessary evil for those who are in other professions, however leaving a football team extra tired and then trying to get them to focus on their own assignments in an already loud environment, it’s more difficult than you would think. Also, in their previous meeting, the Saints still had Chris Ivory healthy and he rushed for 99 yard and a touchdown in that game. Now, both Ivory and Pierre Thomas (the two main runningbacks) are on injured reserve and the Saints need to rely on Reggie Bush and Julius Jones to provide a solid running game. That is not the best group to have faith in. While Bush does provide a good bit of speed and versatility to the position, he doesn’t really show the power necessary to pound the rock in the middle consistently. Jones can pound the middle a little better, key word there being little. The Saints are pretty much going to be one-dimensional in this game, which gives the Seahawks a nice bit of help on the defensive side of the ball.

                Against the Spread: For all that text talking about what will be ailing the Saints, you’d think I’d be picking the Seahawks for the win right? Well, even if you did before, the very nature of that question gives away that I won’t. I may be crazy, but crazy ≠ stupid. The Saints (who are favored by 10.5 points) should win this game, however I do think everything I talked about earlier will keep this game closer than most imagine. So I am going to take the points.


                BAL vs. KC

                                This game is going to be an interesting battle of strengths. This game pits the best rushing offense in the NFL (Chiefs) against the 5th best run defense in the NFL (Ravens). I think that aspect of the game will end up getting canceled out because both teams are perfectly aware of how good the other is at countering that particular strength. Instead, I think the Chiefs are going to come out of the gate with numerous play-action fakes and take some shots down the field against the Ravens 21st ranked pas defense. They’ll only go back to the regular running game after loosening up the Ravens defense a bit. While that won’t exactly be easy, because the Ravens are tied for 8th in the NFL in interceptions, the bulk of which come from the return of the best ballhawk in the game today, Ed Reed. However, this too will be battle of strengths because the Chiefs have thrown the third fewest interceptions during the season, only 8. While the Chiefs may not rack up the passing yards like other teams in the NFL, they are very efficient throwing the ball and Dwayne Bowe is a dangerous threat. If the Ravens roll Ed Reed over to help their corners cover Bowe, they can take away the major receiving threat that the Chiefs have, but it’ll also make it easier to run the ball to the opposite side. The ravens will need to rely heavily of the ball of defensive line to limit any backside runs the Chiefs try to pull as the game goes on. That shouldn’t be an issue though, as the Ravens have one of the best sets of defensive lineman in the NFL, regardless of defensive scheme. On the other side, the Chiefs have a good defense that has often been overlooked because of their lack of any one defining characteristic. They’re not particularly great at one aspect of the defensive game, but they are solid at everything. Tamba Hali and Wallace Gilberry have been great at providing a pass rush while Glenn Dorsey and Derrick Johnson have shut down opposing running lanes. The ravens on the other hand have not been terrible offensively, but they have struggled more than usual to run the ball and, in-spite of the weapons they have, their passing game has been stagnate. However, just because they haven’t exploded offensively yet, doesn’t mean they won’t do it at any time. Between Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and Ray Rice, they have enough weapons to punish any team that just tries to stack the box against the run. Rice will still be the focal point of the offense, being the team’s leading rusher as well as the second leading receiver (in terms of receptions). H does a good job getting those tough yards that other runnners may be more hesitant to pursue. If they can keep working the offense through him and using play-action to press the ball downfield, they have a good chance of pulling this out.

                Against the Spread: The 3 points the Ravens are favored by feels about right to me. While I do think the Chiefs are a bit underrated in this game, The Ravens are more experienced and are very good at playing on the road. I’m taking them and I’m giving the points.


                NYJ vs. IND

                                This game is all about contrasts, much like it was last season. The Jets come in with a strong running game and defense while the colts bring a powerful passing game and mediocre defense to the table. However, what is drastically different between last postseason’s match-up and this one is that the Colts come into this game woefully under-manned. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are still playing, but that’s about it. Peyton Manning doesn’t have Austin Collie’s clutch catching or Dallas Clark stretching the seam. When it comes down to Jacob Tamme and Blair White tryong to out run the talented Jets pass defense, I’m more than just a little concerned. The return of Joseph Addai helps, as he is a very good passing catching option out of the backfield. However that Jets defense is just too good to allow a great deal of separation. Offensively the Jets just need to keep the ball on the ground, where the Colts have struggled all year to stop opponents. If they control the clock and keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, where he can’t try and pull a miracle, they shouldn’t have a hard time winning this game.

                Against the Spread: The Jets should win this game and the home-field advantage that the Colts have is the only thing that makes them a 2.5 point favorite that they are. The Jets just match-up well against them, so I am taking those same Jets for the win and I’m taking the points.  

Friday, January 7, 2011

Cotton Bowl Preview

LSU vs. Texas A&M  

                LSU’s offense is fairly one-dimensional, relying on the run far more than the pass. Stevan Ridley is their most complete back and is generally the focus of the grind-it-out running game. However, Texas A&M has had one of the best run defenses in the country, led linebackers Michael Hodges and Garrick Williams, both of whom are great wrap up tacklers. Playing the straight power game may not be enough to wear out the Aggies defense. LSU will need to mix up the power and speed game in order to keep the Aggie defense on its heels. Explosive utility man Russell Shepard should see more carries in this game. LSU could also use wide receiver screens, jet sweeps and designed quarterback running plays (with either Jordan Jefferson or Jarrett Lee) to keep the Aggie defense confused. However, they can’t be forced into throwing the ball too much. Jefferson and Lee have struggled when asked to put the ball into the air too much and either one struggle further if forced to read where Von Miller is coming from. Additionally, the Texas A&M secondary is opportunisitic and can take advantage of any mistakes the Lee, Jefferson and their receivers (Terrence Toliver, Rueben Randle and tight end Deangelo Peterson) make. All of the receivers will need to make a point of hanging on to the ball when it gets to them.

                The Texas A&M offense faces perhaps their toughest test of the season against the tough and athletic LSU defense. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is quick and fast enough to be a threat with his legs, complimenting the effective running of runningback Cyrus Gray. However they face an athletic front seven in LSU’s defense and they may have a hard time outrunning both the defensive line and the linebackers. In their favor though, those athletic defensive lineman and linebackers are often overrunning their assignments, leaving gap for the runners of Texas A&M to exploit. The real wildcard in this running game will be the Aggies ability to get wide receiver Ryan Swope involved in the option game. Swope is a dangerous runner when given space. He’s also not afraid to work the middle of the field in the passing game. He is complimented on the outside by Jeff Fuller, who is really good at getting behind the defense and getting big plays there. However, the Aggies shouldn’t plan on a lot of big plays. They’re facing one of the most dominating secondarys in college football. Corners Patrick Peterson and Morris Claiborne are able to shut any wide receiver down through use of their strong man-to-man coverage. Both are also a threat to turn any turnover into six at any time. When you add this to the strong pass rush of the Tigers defensive line, you have a dangerous combination that Tannehill must be aware of.

Prospects to Watch

                LSU

                                Patrick Peterson – Cornerback: Arguably the premier corner prospect in this year’s draft, Peterson combines great size and speed. He is better in press man coverage than zone, however he has the range and ability to turn that allows him to be complete a corner. Probably his best asset is his ability to locate and make plays on the ball. He has above average hands and is a dangerous threat when he has the ball in his hands. He also is a pretty good run defender, though he needs to do a better job protecting his feet from cut blocks. He is likely a top fifteen (possibly top five) pick.

                Texas A&M

                                Von Miller – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Miller is an outstanding 3-4 outside linebacker prospect. His great talent to going forward, rushing the passer. He has an explosive first step and is great at anticipating the snap count. He can bend his hips and rip under the outstretched hands of offensive tackles and has a dangerous spin move. His size does leave him a bit lacking in his ability to anchor against the run, but he can run down most plays from behind and has great range going sideline to sideline. He can occasionally take poor angles, but is otherwise a solid tackler. He is ok is short zone coverage, not someone you want matched-up man-to-man against tight ends or slot receivers. His pass rush ability will get him drafted in the top 20 picks.

Final Pick

                LSU – Their defense is just too dominating in my opinion to get beat by the younger offense of the Aggies. 

Thursday, January 6, 2011

GoDaddy.com Bowl Preview

Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami (Ohio)

                Considering the explosive players that each team brings to the table, this game will probably be surprisingly low scoring and defensive.

                Miami (Ohio) has been the turnaround story of the year in college football, having gone from winning just one game last year to winning the Mid-American conference this year. However, this season has also been littered with changes. Regular starting quarterback Zac Dysert was lost with three games left in the season to a lacerated spleen and backup Austin Boucher had to step in to take the reins. He did a good job, limiting his mistakes and letting Thomas Merriweather pound the rock, which helped lead the Redhawks to their MAC title. In this match-up against an opportunistic Middle Tennessee State secondary, that running game has to be the focal point of the Redhawks offense. They did finish the season 114th in the country in rushing offense, but in their last three games they rushed for 537 yards. They should be able to keep the roll up against the undersized Blue Raider’s rush defense. Defensive Tackles Dwight Smith and Jarrett Crittenton struggle to play with good pad level and get driven off the ball with relative ease. If the Redhawks can drive those defenders off the ball consistently and keep the excellent pass rushers, featuring defensive end Jamari Lattimore, hesitating, they’ll allow Austin Boucher to throw the short and intermidate passes with little trouble. However, that pass rush is formidable and will be facing a less than stellar pass blocking offensive line. There is a very high probability that if the Redhawks try to rely too heavily on the pass, that Boucher will have defenders in his face all night. Not matter how good receivers Nick Harwell and Armand Robinson are, they will not be effective if Boucher is on the ground the whole time.

                On the other hand, Middle Tennessee State’s quarterback Dwight Dasher has been a dangerous force both on the ground and through the air since returning from the four game suspension he started the season serving. He and Phillip Tanner have combined to be a dangerous rushing combination, taking advantage of their speed to make teams pay when they get to the outside. They face a tough battle in this game against the nation’s nineteenth best run defense. Defensive tackles Austin Brown and Jordain Brown are great at maintaining good pad level and redirecting blocks through good hand use. Their good play also gives instinctive and athletic linebackers Evan Harris and Jerrell Wedge space to move to attack the outsides. The Blue Raiders have to be able to cover up their defenders and give Dasher and Tanner space to maneuver. Short and intermediate pass will help loosen that stingy Redhawks run defense. However in order to do that, they’re going to need to be able to protect Dwight Dasher and design plays that can get him out of the pocket. Dasher is 5-10 and when he is confined to the pocket, his decision making has suffered. If the Redhawks are able to hem him into the pocket and make him read the coverage from there, they’ll have an opportunity to cause turnovers. Though they will need to make sure that they can tackle well in the open field because the Blue raider receivers have shown the ability to break tackles and create after the catch.

Prospects to Watch

                Middle Tennessee State

                                Jamari Lattimore – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Lattimore doesn’t have the size to lineup along the line, but he has shown more than enough quickness and agility to survive in the NFL as a 3-4 outside linebacker. His 14 tackles for a loss and 11.5 sacks earned him Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year honors. I am aware that doesn’t count for much in the NFL, since the level of competition wasn’t that great. However, being a good pass rusher garners plenty of attention for teams that use a rotation at outside linebacker. He has elite quickness, but relies heavily on that quickness and his ability to and bend around blockers. He may have trouble if he gets locked out by bigger tackles. He has a chance to get drafted in the 6th or 7th round.

                Miami (Ohio)

                                Armand Robinson – Wide Receiver: While his size and strength are average, Robinson has above average speed and amazing consistency. Level of competition hurts his stock, but teams are always looking for consistent, fast receivers. He has chance in the last day of the draft, between rounds 6-7.

Final Pick

                Middle Tennessee State – There has just been more stability with this team and they are able to counter what Miami does well. 

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Sugar Bowl Preview

Ohio State vs. Arkansas

                When you really sit down and think about it, this quarterback could’ve happened at the end of every Big Ten season. Remember that Ryan Mallett started his career at Michigan. However, sadly for the Michigan fans, Mallett decided to leave with Lloyd Carr. Now they get to see what could have been.

                Ohio State has a good thing going for them with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. Pryor is a good runner and can be an excellent passer. If he is given a crease to run, he’ll burn a defense that way, but if the box is stacked to prevent his running, he’ll pick apart the opposing defense with solid passing. Having DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher at receiver is a great help, since both are solid receivers who can break big plays if left in single coverage. The times when Pryor has struggled are when he feels like he is being pressured but he actually isn’t. It’s not so much a matter of needing to sack him on every other play, but Arkansas needs to make him feel like he is being pressured without actually sacrificing players in coverage to pressure him. Using defensive line stunts and zone blitzes should accomplish this goal. However, the Razorbacks still need to be able to account for Dan Herron, the Buckeyes runningback. Ohio State has done a good job running the ball out of multiple sets and formations making their run offense very difficult to scheme against. This is a major advantage that the Ohio State has over the less than stellar run defense of Arkansas. Arkansas does have a good secondary and could limit the passing game, however if Ohio State is pounding the rock for the majority of the game, they may not matter. They also have an advantage in special teams, where they feature dynamic returner Jordan hall, facing the 111th ranked kick return defense. Expect the Buckeyes to have a field position advantage for most of the game.

                 Ryan Mallett really isn’t that different from Pryor as a passer. Yes, Mallett can certainly be a more polished passer than Pryor, however much like Pryor, Mallett struggles to adjust to the blitz and makes mistakes when he is pressured. Ohio State does a good job pressuring the quarterback and picking off passes with a veteran secondary. The Arkansas offense needs to be able to back the pressure off with quick short passes and strong running before trying to take shots downfield. Knile Davis, a big 220-pound runner needs to be the focal point of the offense early. Arkansas has a bit of a size advantage on the slightly smaller Ohio State run defense and the Ohio State linebackers, most notably Ross Homan have a hard time getting off blocks. If Arkansas can get physical up front and ram the ball down Ohio State’s throat, the way Bobby Petrino used to set up the pass at Louisville, then they can use play-action passes to open the field and give receivers like Cobi Hamilton, Jarius Wirght and Joe Adams a chance to make plays down field. Tight end DJ Williams will also be a great asset over the middle. It won’t as easy as it sounds though, Ohio State does a good job anchoring against the run and allowing their linebackers to attack runningbacks untouched.

Prospects to Watch

                Ohio State

                                Cameron Heyward – Defensive End: Considered one of the better defensive end prospects coming into the year, Heyward has fallen some during the course of the season. He hasn’t shown the kind of speed he needs to consistently pressure the passer and he has been inconsistent in his level of play, though not apparently due to lack of effort. To his credit he does have very good measurable, though he could stand to add some bulk. He plays with sound technique and is good at anchoring against the run. He is also good at using his hands and change of speed to exploit creases in the offensive line. He doesn’t have the versatility to play outside linebacker in a 3-4, which really hurts his value, but he does have the techinique advantage to play as complete defensive end in a 3-4. He will likely go between the late first and early second rounds, in spite of the flaws in his pass rush technique.

                Arkansas

                                Demarcus Love – Offensive Tackle:  While Love has shown the ability to play both on the right and the left, his athleticism lends itself more to playing right tackle than left. He can be beat by elite pass rushers, but otherwise is instinctive and has sound technique in pass blocking.  He is also a good run blocker, as long as he stays in-line. He often whiffs on blocks at the second level (linebackers). Teams that use a zone blocking scheme are not going to be high on him, but he can fit in with a team that prefers to maul opposing defenses. His sound technique in both run and pass blocking are difficult to ignore, though the same is true for his lack of ideal athleticism. He’ll probably go between the middle second round and the 5th round, depending on his testing results.

Final Pick

                Arkansas – The Big Ten is an old school conference, which has led to its terrible bowl record this year. Big Ten teams are built to play other Big Ten Teams, not the more athletic and cutting edge teams from other conferences. SEC teams are especially good at beating on teams like Ohio State. I’m not going to try and get cute here. The more athletic Arkansas team wins. 

Monday, January 3, 2011

Orange Bowl Preview

Stanford vs. Va. Tech  

                This game features two of the best quarterbacks in college football right now; Andrew Luck and Tyrod Taylor. While both will get a lot of publicity and are important to their respective team winning the game, they aren’t the key to their respective team winning the game. That would be the running game, which both teams excel at.

                Andrew Luck may get a lot of the publicity for Stanford, but everything he does is based off the balanced provided by Stanford’s potent running game. Stepfan Taylor and Anthony Wilkerson have done a good job of making the loss of Toby Gerhart not hurt as much as it would hurt other teams. Both are very effective in the scheme that offensive coordinator David Shaw likes to use. Shaw likes to use multiple formations and shifts to dictate what how the defense needs to defend against the Stanford attack, notable using a lot power and weak counter plays (A weak counter is when an offense loads up one side of the offensive line with extra blockers like tight ends, then runs a counter play to the opposite side). This philosophy could make it difficult for the Virginia Tech Hokies to accurately predict where the ball is going and attack the ball with their athleticism. Defensive Ends Steven Friday and Chris Drager have had a hard time setting the edge and anchoring against the run. They’re much better at rushing the quarterback. Due to this deficiency, it could be hard for Va. Tech defensive coordinator to stick to his normal defensive scheme of allowing his safeties to play back to prevent big plays. He may have to push them closer to defend the run, though blitzing his linebackers to the weak side of the offensive line may work just as well. Either way he may need to leave his corners on islands to defend against the pass. That could end up working out fairly well though, as corner Rashad Carmichael and Jayron Hosley have shown that are quite capable of playing on islands. This should be doubly true against wide receivers Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen, who are good at route running, but not game breakers. It also won’t Stanford that Virginia Tech is very good a rushing the quarterback and forcing throws. However, Andrew Luck doesn’t have the publicity for nothing. He does a good job going through his reads and knows how to react to pressure. The Hokie pass rush must rattle him in the pocket so make force throws into coverage.

                The Virginia Tech offensive line may not be the most physical line in the country, but they play sound assignment football. They are able to locate and cover up opposing defenders with little problem. This helps the runningback trio of Ryan Williams, David Wilson and Darren Evans, all of whom have great vision and quickness in finding at hitting a hole at full tilt. Stanford runs a 3-4 defense with overly enthusiastic outside linebacker/defensive ends, Chase Thomas and Thomas Keiser, who have a tendency to get too far upfield in run defense, which leaves a crease between them and their defensive linemen. Giving these runningbacks a crease is a bad idea, because they can rip off big chunks of yards in any given play. The dual-threat that is Tyrod Taylor helps out that running game by drawing at least one defender to spy him. In a pinch the Hokies can use a zone-read option to make opponents pick between stopping him and stopping the runningback. Taylor’s only real weakness is that he doesn’t throw as well from inside the pocket. Stanford needs to be able to contain him in the pocket in order to reduce his effectiveness in the passing game, making the Va. Tech offense one dimensional. However with Keiser and Thomas over-running the run, there will be a lot of opportunities for Taylor to break contain and make throws on the run. If he is on the outside, it will be hard for the Stanford secondary to simply stay with their receivers and not leave their assignments to come up in run support. However if he is kept within the pocket, the secondary can stay with their assignments and take advantage of a less than perfect pocket passer.

Prospects to Watch

                Stanford

                                Andrew Luck – Quarterback: While I have many doubts about his ability to succeed at the next level with so little experience, Luck certainly has a lot of tangibles going in his favor. He has good arm strength and touch, displays an ability to look off safeties and make proper reads. His best asset is his ability to make subtle moves in the pocket that extends plays, the same thing Tom Brady is praised for. However he is not a prefect prospect. He also has a tendency to throw the ball of balance and place too much trust in his arm strength. That last one is probably the most dangerous thing that a quarterback prospect can do. It leads to those quarterbacks forcing the ball into coverage believing that they can just out-throw the coverage, but it doesn’t work in the NFL. Mark Sanchez is a quarterback I saw do this a lot in college and, while he is winning in the NFL, he’s also on a team that can make up for his mistakes while he grows out of those tendencies. Luck may not get on a team that can make up for those mistakes. Luck’s physical talents make him a top 5 pick, and he is likely to come out since there is  good chance Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh will be leaving following this game, but I’m not entirely convinced that he’ll be successful in the NFL.

                Va. Tech

                                Rashad Carmichael – Cornerback: Rashad ‘Rock’ Carmichael follows DeAngelo Hall, Jimmy Williams, Brandon Flowers, Victor “Macho” Harris and Stephen Virgil in a line of solid cornerback prospects to come out of Virginia Tech. While Carmichael is under-sized and needs to work on his tackling technique, he is also very fast and has good ball skills. He has experience in both zone and man coverage, though he is better in man than zone. That goes a long way to getting him drafted because he can fit into any scheme, though you don’t want him to be matched up against bigger receivers in the end-zone. He also has good change of direction skills, good acceleration and is willing to mix it up in run defense. He should be drafted in the third round, but definitely has second round skills.

Final Pick

                Virginia Tech – Since losing to James Madison in their second game of the season, Virginia Tech has been underestimated. I think the staples of Beamer ball, strong defense, strong running and good special teams will be on show in this game and the athleticism of Virginia Tech will be more than enough to counter the trickery of Stanford. 

Sunday, January 2, 2011

NFL Week 17 Picks

I went 6-10 last week, bringing my overall to 140-100. I think I just heard my credibility being tossed out a window. I don’t expect to do much better this week, but here we go none the less.


MIA vs. NE


                                 New England has nothing to play for, other than momentum. I doubt we’ll see their offensive starters and key defensive players for more than a half. Miami may not be great, but I think they are better than the New England backups. Miami wins.


                BUF vs. NYJ   


                                 Pretty much the same situation here. The Jets may feel more inclined to play their starters for the entire game, but I doubt they’re going keep them out there for too long. Momentum is nice, but having a healthy team is nicer. The good thing for the Jets is that they have a deep bench and the Bills are hurting. Jets win, even with their backups.
               

                CIN vs. BAL
               

                                 Baltimore has plenty to play for. While they’ve already locked up a spot in the playoffs, they are still competing with Pittsburgh for the AFC North division title and a bye week. They’re not going to take it easy on Cincinnati. Baltimore should win, though Marvin Lewis is pretty much coaching for his job. A three game winning streak to end the season would give him a good chance to keep his job another year.


                OAK vs. KC


                                These teams are very similar in approach to the game. Both use the running game to set up the pass and both are very good at running the ball. Both also play very good defense, though the Chiefs have done a better job with what they have. The Chiefs must feel like they have something to play for, even if they can’t improve their playoff seed. They’ve been riding momentum through the entirety of the season and I don’t think they want to lose that momentum now. The Chiefs will go all out and I think they’ll win.


                PIT vs. CLE


                                 Pittsburgh is in the same situation as Baltimore. They need this win to lock up a bye week, which they may desperately need to allow Troy Polamalu time to recover from his Achilles’ injury. Cleveland has shown plenty during the course of the season, but I don’t think they’ll be able to hold pace today. Pittsburgh wins.


                MIN vs. DET


                                 Detroit has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year…….Stop Laughing! Considering where they were two years ago to have come this far this fast is remarkable. They have been in almost every single game they have played and while they may not have won a lot of those games, they proved that they are ready to become contenders in the NFC North. That being said Minnesota has been playing better of late and I think they may have found at least a stop-gap solution at quarterback with Joe Webb. He hasn’t proven he can be a franchise player, but I think he can hold down the spot for a year or two if they want to wait to see which prospects are available. I’m going to pick Detroit to win though, just on my gut instinct.


                TB vs. NO


                                 This could’ve been the best game of the week, if Tampa Bay was relatively healthy.  However with so many of their defensive starters hurt, I just don’t think they’ll be able to slow down the Saints offense; especially with New Orleans needing this win to have a chance at getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs. New Orleans wins.


                CAR vs. ATL


                                 I feel sorry for John Fox. While he is certainly deserving of losing his job considering the season he has had, it’s just a shame that his team has no chance in his final game. Atlanta needs this win to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and they’re not going to go easy on Carolina. Atlanta wins.


                JAC vs. HOU


                                 Jacksonville is going to be without Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard in this game. While the Texans have the worst pass defense in the NFL, I think they’ll be able to handle Trent Edwards passing the ball. Texans win.


                DAL vs. PHI 


                                 The injuries to the Philadelphia defense has left the Eagles an offensively oriented team. That offense has relied on the play of Michael Vick to keep them explosive, but he will not be playing in this game. I doubt most of the other starters will be playing for long either, since the Eagles have little to play for. I think most of the starters will be out by the second quarter. Dallas wins.
                                               

                CHI vs. GB


                                 This game has ton of implications in the playoffs. Green Bay needs a win to make the playoffs, while the Bears need a win to have a chance at home field advantage. The Bears are flat-out better than the Packers if they don’t pull off the dogs, however they have admitted that they will be watching the scoreboard to see how Atlanta and New Orleans are doing, since they need both of those teams to lose if they want to get home-field advantage. Since I think both Atlanta and New Orleans are going to win, the Bears have no incentive to play their starters for the entire game. The Packers will probably win.  


                ARI vs. SF


                                 I’ve really got nothing here. Both teams are playing for pride. I’m picking Arizona because they haven’t changed coaches recently.


                SD vs. DEN


                                 This is the big test for Tim Tebow, at least for this year. San Diego’s defense is arguably the best defense he is going to face this season. How well he plays in this game determines, at least in my opinion, whether or not he gets a competitor for the starting job next season. He probably will, because I don’t think that Denver will win this game. San Diego will.


                NYG vs. WAS


                                 While the Giants are skidding badly, I’m still of the opinion that they shouldn’t have a hard time beating Rex Grossman. They should also be playing hard since they know that they need to win to have a chance at the playoffs. Giants win.


                TEN vs. IND


                                 Tennessee actually has a good chance to win this game. By this time, the Colts should know whether Jacksonville won or lost. Since Jacksonville is not likely to win their game against Houston, Indianapolis won’t need to play their starters to get into the playoffs. Given the injuries that have been crippling the Colts offense this past few weeks, I think that they won’t want to risk further injuries if they don’t have to. So I’m calling for the Tennessee upset.


                STL vs. SEA *Game of the Week*


                                  You can call this a play-in game all you want, the winner still goes to the playoffs. Both teams are probably going to pull out all the stops, in this fight for a playoff spot. Like I’ve said before, when the NFC West has a division game, I have no clue where to go because logic doesn’t seem to apply to this division. I’m picking the Rams, just because I want an 8-8 team in the playoffs as opposed to the 7-9 Seahawks. 

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Fiesta Bowl Preview

UConn vs. Oklahoma

                UConn’s offense goes through their running game. Jordan Todman is one of the more underrated runningbacks in the country and works well within the offensive scheme that UConn runs. UConn likes to use a lot of plays that involve a pulling guard and power fullback to open up holes to the outside and give Todman a lot of space to run. This type of offense does give the fast Oklahoma defensive front a chance to shoot through the holes created by those pulling guards and disrupt the play in the backfield. UConn needs to be able to dial up other plays that takes advantage of the over aggressiveness of the Oklahoma defense, allowing those defenders to overrun the play, leaving a seam for Todman to exploit. If the running game is going strong, it gives Zach Frazer, who doesn’t play well under pressure a chance to utilize play-action passes and open up opportunities for Michael Smith down the field. Smith can beat the Oklahoma safeties when they bite on play-action so the running game has to be there. If not, Zach Frazer will have a long day with a lot of pressure in his face.

                Oklahoma uses a wide range of formations and motion to try and locate the best match-up to exploit in their passing and rushing game. They should have a relatively easy time locating those types of mismatches playing against Connecticut, who favors keeping their base defense in against spread looks. The logic in that move is that if Oklahoma starts runningback DeMarco Murray out at receiver then motion him back into the backfield, they won’t be short a solid run defender when he is given the ball. However this strategy gives the Sooners a huge advantage if they just choose to play their spread offense as a straight passing offense. The UConn linebackers don’t have the range or speed to match up against DeMarco Murray or Ryan Broyles in space. The only chance UConn has at disrupting this potent passing attack is to bring consistent and constant pressure at Landry Jones. The Oklahoma offensive line has had hard time gelling this season and is prone to blowing their assignments and letting free rushers loose. If UConn doesn’t let themselves get caught up in the misdirection plays Oklahoma uses to try and mask this weakness, they should be able to force Jones’ hand. Hopefully they can get turnovers off this because they aren’t going to succeed by just dropping seven.

Prospects to Watch

                UConn

                                Lawrence Wilson – Linebacker: Wilson is an athletic linebacker who uses his speed to roam from sideline to sideline. He does a good job locating the ball and wrapping up when he tackles. However his athleticism is somewhat limited by NFL standards and he isn’t likely to be seen running down the seam with an athletic tight end. He doesn’t have the strength to shed in phone booth (close quarters) situations and can be overwhelmed. However his has active hands and quick feet which he can use to help him slip blocks and make plays in the backfield. He’ll be drafted on the last day; the athleticism makes him a good candidate to be a special teams ace.

                Oklahoma

                                Quinton Carter – Safety: While not someone you want to line up near the line of scrimmage, Quinton Carter is a rangy safety who can change direction easily and isn’t afraid to mix it up with bigger runners or receivers. He has good closing burst, which helps him when he plays man-to-man against wide receivers or tight ends. His ball skills are just average. He should be drafted sometime between the second and third round.

Final Pick

                Oklahoma – I’ll be routing for UConn, however it’s just not the smart pick here. Oklahoma has a huge speed advantage on UConn and that goes a long way to securing wins in the college game. 

Rose Bowl Preview

Wisconsin vs. TCU

                Wisconsin loves to use their physicality to push opposing defense around. They excel to isolation blocking and use their size advantage to maul opposing defenses into the ground. The runningback trio of John Clay, James White and Montee Ball provide a good mix of talents and game breaking ability.  Clay is a pounder, White is more of a burner (though a tough runner in his own right) and Ball is a bit of a mix between the two. Wisconsin hopes to run right at the undersized defensive front of the Horned Frogs. However, the Wisconsin offensive line has had problems protecting their legs and the athletic TCU defenders can run past the mauling offensive linemen if they aren’t sound in their assignments. This makes the play calling of offensive coordinator Paul Chryst all the more important. Chryst usually does a good job of mixing the passing game into the running game that Wisconsin uses. That most often comes in the form of screens and quick passes that favor the skills of their wide receivers most notable Nick Toon. Quarterback Scott Tolzien is very effective at working those routes and works well within his skills set.

                TCU also focuses heavily on their running but they prefer to use the zone-read option to open up holes for the athletic Andy Dalton and speedy Ed Wesley and Matt Tucker. Wesley is a slippery and dangerous open field runner, while Tucker pounds the rock in the middle. Dalton is a good runner, but not an elite running quarterback. It’s enough, however to help open up the underneath passing route that Dalton excels at exploiting. If he can get passes off to Jeremy Kerley in space, then the Wisconsin defense will be in trouble because Kerley excels in space and is also one of the most dangerous return men in the country. Kerley’s explosiveness in both passing game and (especially) in the return game should give TCU the field position advantage. Wisconsin is one of the worst punt and kick coverage teams in the country. Wisconsin does feel like they have an advantage defensively however, because their defensive ends play disciplined football and it allows them to just drop seven into coverage, where they feel like they can take away Dalton’s ability to throw the ball. However Dalton can take the ball up the middle in those cases and keep the chains moving.

Prospects to Watch

                Wisconsin

                                Gabe Carimi – Offensive Tackle: The guy who replaced Joe Thomas at Wisconsin, Carimi has been a solid replacement and he is a solid prospect. He drives defenders off the ball consistently in the run game and knows how to adjust to blitzers in the passing game. He does show some fundamental weaknesses though, like not sinking his hips enough to gain leverage, not staying low when run blocking and getting too much depth on his stick step, allowing pass rushers to build steam getting to him. However a lot of this can be coached away and his consistent durability should be enough to get him drafted. The only real question will be whether he goes in the late first round or in the early second round.

                TCU

                                Marcus Cannon – Offensive Tackle/Guard: this is a definite case of having all the tools but appearing to not have the ability to use them properly. Cannon has the ability to mirror most pass rushers, maul defenders in run blocking and knows how to lock out defenders once he gets set. However more elite pass rushers can beat him and he occasionally gets lost in picking up blitzes and stunts. He doesn’t adjust well when he gets surprised and there are questions about how well he’ll be able to pick up complex NFL schemes. He’ll get drafted because he’s a work hard guy with talent, but those questions about his ability to handle the mental side of the game will keep him in the late third or early fourth round of the draft.

Final Pick

                TCU – The best defense in the country is not an illusion. They will be able to shut down everything Wisconsin throws at them. 

Gator Bowl Preview

Mississippi State vs. Michigan

                Mississippi State’s offense is built off their strong running game. Runningbacks Vick Ballard and LaDarius Perkins are both quick runners with the ability to turn the corner and shift into another gear once they find some space. They also do a good job pressing the line and bouncing the ball to the outside once linebackers and safeties have been sucked to the middle. They’re helped by quarterback Chris Relf’s own athleticism and ability to punish a defense and designed quarterback runs. Mcihigan’s run defense gets a boost with the return of nose tackle Mike Martin, but he relies heavily on his quickness to penetrate and disrupt plays in the backfield. Against the mauling offensive line of Mississippi State, he could have a problem finding success. Michigan’s linebackers also have some problems in getting swept up in blocks and staying in their lanes. Mississippi State is not a great passing team, but Michigan can’t simply stack the box with a safety to stop the run. Relf tends to lock on his receiver when in the pocket but he excels in getting out from the pocket and zipping the ball into his receivers from there. He will be without his top two receivers (both of whom are injured) but slot receiver Brandon Heavens is good enough to produce against an undisciplined and inexperienced Michigan pass defense. If the linebackers for Michigan don’t get deep enough in their drops, they’ll have a hard time contain Heavens, Chris Smith and Arceto Clark. Ballard and Perkins are also good pass catchers and could be featured to help draw the defense up and give more space for Heavens. The Mississippi State offensive line matches-up well against the Michigan pass rush.

                On the flip side, Michigan’s offense depends almost entirely on the play of quarterback Denard Robinson, who should be healthy for this game. Robnison’s running is the ey to the Michigan offense and he needs to be able to break off a few big runs against a tough Mississippi State defense. If he can do that through the use of the zone read option, then Michigan’s offense can open up somewhat. Runningbacks Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith are capable runners and compliment Robinson’s talents very well. They should be able to keep the Mississippi State defense spread thin when Robinson is running the ball. However, The Bulldog linebackers, Chris White and KJ Wright are very athletic who are good at wrapping up on tackles. Also, the offensive line of Michigan is inconsistent in their blocking assignments, a trait they have to overcome when facing the powerful defensive line of Mississippi State. Robinson has a group of receivers who should be able to find the seams in the Bulldogs zone defense; however that won’t be of any help if Mississippi State is pushing the pocket with their front four and not overcompensating for Robinson’s ability to run. Like I said earlier, Robinson needs to break off a few big runs for this offense to take off.

Prospects to Watch

                Mississippi State

                                Pernell McPhee – Defensive End: Pernell McPhee is a prospect to watch going into the evaluation season following the end of the regular football season. He is a JUCO transfer that has amazing strength and pretty good speed. He’s not fast enough to consistently beat blockers around the edge, but his strength is so great that he can shove the offensive tackle back into the quarterback. He doesn’t have a large variety of pass rush moves and doesn’t have the versatility to be successful standing up. He anchors well against the run and knows how to set the edge against the run. He may be a bit behind in terms of technique, but he has played elite competition and can play defensive end in either 4-3 or a 3-4. That kind of versatility solidifies him as a 3rd round talent for next year’s draft.

                Michigan

                                Steve Schilling – Offensive guard: Schilling has solid pass blocking technique. He has shown a good feel for when he needs to pass off pass rushers and has a good punch to stop the momentum of on-coming pass rushers. However he isn’t very bulky and struggles to run block. He gives up too much leverage and doesn’t drive defenders off the ball. His awareness also seems to drop, once he is asked to go on the move and drive a defensive lineman off the ball. He is likely to be drafted in the fourth to sixth round.

Final Pick

                Mississippi State – Robinson is a dangerous force, in the Big Ten. I don’t think he’ll do enough of what he needs to do to beat Mississippi State. 

Capital One Bowl Preview

Alabama vs. Michigan State

                Alabama’s offense has a major fundamental flaw in their game, the inconsistency of their offensive line. So much of what the Crimson Tide has done offensively is dependent on their offensive line playing well. They certainly have the ability to run the ball well whether their offensive line is play well or not, but the threat of passing is lessened when the offensive line can’t protect well against blitzes or active defensive lineman. That allows the defense to stack the box against the run, regardless of how talented the receivers are. Alabama runningbacks Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson are good at running behind their pads and punishing opposing tacklers. However their top end speed can be beat by the quick, athletic linebacker and defensive lineman that Michigan State has. However, Michigan State’s linebacker shave a tendency to overrun plays, which allow seams that Ingram and Richardson can take advantage of. Greg McElroy is still an effective quarterback, but he has always been more of a game manager than a game changer. He knows how to work the underneath routes and keep the chains moving on short passes, but if he is getting pressured consistently, he’ll have a hard time not floating the ball on his passes over the middle. It also doesn’t help that Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi likes to mix up the looks he gives opposing quarterbacks.

                Michigan State’s offense revolves around the strong running of runningbacks Edwin Baker, Le’Veon Bell and Larry Caper. Baker is explosive and has a low center of gravity, making him tough to take down, while Bell has good size and speed and Caper is a reliable role player. However they face one of the best run defense in the country, with talented players like Marcell Dareus and Don’t’a Hightower leading the charge against the opposing runningbacks. Dareus is great at controlling the line of scrimmage and allowing Hightower and CJ Mosley to run to the ball. However if Alabama becomes too overzealous in their pursuit of the running game, they’ll allow a good quarterback in Kirk Cousins to pick apart their secondary. While Alabama did have the third most interception in the country this past year and has a ball-hawking safety in Robert Lester, they are also missing their other great safety, Mark Barron. With Barron gone, Lester is the most consistent defensive back they have playing right now and that cause problems against Cousins, who can find the seams against zone coverage. Alabama needs to be able to pressure Cousins into making mistakes.

Prospects to Watch

                Alabama

                                Julio Jones – Wide Receiver: Julio Jones is the definition of a big play waiting to happen. Jones has great speed and a long stride that helps him accelerate quickly. He also has good hands, but he can be inconsistent when trying to catch in traffic. He needs to be more disciplined in catching the ball away from his frame and tracking the deep ball. Also, his route running is not as crisp as it could be. He’s not afraid to work over the middle, but he may drop the ball and struggle to gain separation on short routes. His rare speed and strong (if inconsistent) hands are difficult to ignore. Another year in school would help him, but with his senior quarterback leaving, it makes more sense for him to leave while his stock is high. Should he leave, he’ll probably find himself being drafted in the middle to late first round, early second round at the latest.

                Michigan State

                                Greg Jones – Linebacker: Jones is an athletic sideline-to-sideline defender that has good enough range to be a three-down linebacker. He shows a great ability to pursue the ball and knows how to rush the passer from his inside linebacker position. He can stop a runningback’s momentum and doesn’t back down when facing a blocker. However, he also can get over-aggressive in pursuing the ball and can be overwhelmed by big, strong offensive lineman. He may be undervalued because of his lack of ideal athleticism, but he is a solid linebacker who should be a starter within his first two years in the league. He’ll probably go between the second and third round.

Final Pick

                Michigan State – The last time Alabama faced a team with an active defensive front and a strong running game, they lost. I think similar results will come in this game.