Hyundai Sun Bowl Preview

Notre Dame vs. Miami (Fl.)

                Notre Dame has had issues at quarterback and those issues could hurt the Fighting Irish in this game. Freshman Tommy Rees has been pretty good since regular starter Dayne Crist went down with a knee injury. His lack of experience is going to be a challenge to overcome in part because of the great Miami pass defense. A lot of Notre Dame’s passing offense is based around moving receivers around to create match-up problems. However Miami’s secondary is pretty deep and can match-up well against spread offenses like the one Brian Kelly uses. Notre Dame’s biggest weapon in the passing game is Michael Floyd, who relies heavily on his size and speed to succeed as a playmaker. Miami has the corners that should be able to neutralize those key skills. Ryan Hill and Demarcus Van Dyke are both big corners who can cover Floyd in red zone situations, neutralizing the height advantage, while Brandon Harris can run with Floyd between the 20s. Rees needs to be able to take advantage of the attention that Floyd gets and spread the ball around to numerous receivers. That’s going to be a problem if the Notre Dame offensive line can’t at least slow Allen Bailey and company. Bailey leads a talented Miami defensive line that helped the Hurricanes defense rack up 37 sacks on the season. Even if they can stop the front four, Miami does a good job blitzing and has enough confidence in their secondary to leave their receivers in one-on-one coverage. How Rees handles this pass rush is going to go a long way to determining the winner of this game. One thing that the Notre Dame coaching staff can do to help ease that pressure, is keep the running game going with a certain amount of consistency. While main running back Armando Allen is out, Cierre Woods and Robert Hughes have worked well as a combo. Woods is fast and Hughes is a physical, downhill runner that can keep the Miami defense off-balance and keep the pressure off of Tommy Rees. However, for this to work Notre dame’s offensive line still needs to be able to control the Miami defensive line.

                Miami’s quarterback situation is not much better than Notre Dame’s. Jacory Harris is getting his first start in several weeks and while has the arm strength to make plays down the field, he also has a tendency to sail the ball, leaving it up for grabs. It was this tendency that led Miami’s coaching staff to leave him on the bench after he recovered from a concussion. He’ll be helped by the running game, which is split between a four runningbacks, most notably Greg Cooper and Damian Berry. Though none of the runningbacks who are likely to get carries in this game are players you should be terrified of, Cooper and Berry are tough runners who can help wear down the clock when the time is right. The real threat on the Miami offense is Leonard Hankerson. He is the first Hurricane wide receiver to have double digit touchdown catches since the great Michael Irvin and he has big play ability.  The offensive coaching staff likes to move him around the formation, finding match-ups they like that will allow him to make big plays. It makes it difficult to roll coverage toward him, but Notre Dame will clearly be focused on keeping him contained and forcing Harris into throwing ill-advised passes.

Prospects to Watch

                Notre Dame

                                Michael Floyd – Wide Receiver: Floyd came into this season as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the country. Given the inconsistency and inexperience at quarterback this year, he proved that he is certainly worth that kind of praise. He has excellent measurable, with the exception of long speed. Sadly, Floyd falls into the group of receivers who are faster than most college secondaries but not fast enough to consistently beat NFL coverage. That being said, he still has great hands and enough speed to challenge the secondary deep if they leave him uncovered. His size can help create mismatches on smaller corners and in the endzone, but he’s not the type to catch the ball and make a defender miss. He is also willing to go over the middle, but he isn’t a great blocker so teams that favor the run may not give him a chance. He has had his fair share of injuries, but he has also fought back from them to produce consistently. Should he declare, he’ll likely go somewhere between rounds 2 and 3.

                Miami (Fl.)

                                Allen Bailey – Defensive End/Tackle: Bailey reminds me of former Hurricanes defensive end, Calais Campbell. He is highly productive as a defensive end, using a variety of power moves to get into the backfield and be disruptive. He has experience playing both on the edge and along the interior and is a disciplined run defender. However, like Campbell, he is a defensive end/defensive tackle tweener, size-wise. He is too big and not fast enough to be a regular 4-3 defensive end (let alone a 3-4 outside linebacker) and too small to be a regular defensive tackle. But also like Campbell, he can fit into a defensive line rotation, probably start as a 3-4 defensive end if he adds some bulk. His experience and power are difficult to ignore, however he’s probably going to slip to the second round because of his size.

Final Pick

                Notre Dame – While I’m not confident in Tommy Rees, I’ll take a freshman quarterback who has been playing consistently the past few weeks, over a rusty veteran like Jacory Harris. 

Autozone Liberty Bowl Preview

Georgia vs. Central Florida

                This game could very well feel like a mismatch when Georgia’s offense is on the field. UCF’s defensive front is based on speed, which is needed to compete with the spread offenses that dominate Conference USA’s top teams. However, in this matchup that strength could become a weakness. The Georgia offensive line is massive and, if given the opportunity, will drive the UCF defensive front off the ball. They’re going to rely on Washaun Ealy and Caleb King having a good game to pull the secondary up, giving AJ Green and Kris Durham (especially Durham) less attention. UCF needs Bruce Miller to have a good game, to knock freshman quarterback Andy Murray off-balance. That way when Murray does put the ball in the air, there is a better chance of him trying to push the ball into coverage.

                UCF’s offense is also going to need to be at its best to ensure that they aren’t falling too far behind. Dual threat quarterback Jeff Godfrey and runningback Latavius Murray are dangerous runners that are going to keep the Georgia defensive front on guard. However the UCF offensive line is big and heavy footed. They’re not going to be able to consistently adjust to a fast moving linebacker corp. like the one that Georgia likes to use. If the Georgia defense can slow the rushing game, they have a definite advantage against the UCF passing game. While wide receivers Quincy McDuffie, Brian Watters, Kamar Aiken and Jamar Newsome are all quick and dangerous when they have the ball in their hands, Godfrey is not the best decision maker in the passing game and is likely to force the ball into coverage. This is going to give Georgia numerous opportunities to grab turnovers.

Prospects to Watch

                Georgia

                                Clint Boling – Offensive Guard: While Boling has a great frame; he lacks the bulk and strength that most teams look for in a starting guard. He has great awareness and has shown a lot of versatility, playing both tackle positions as well as guard. He is athletic and would fit better with a team that uses a zone-blocking scheme, but even then he isn’t an elite athlete for his position. A team will give him a chance, but that chance will probably come in the 5^th round or later.

                Central Florida

                                Bruce Miller – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Miller has shown good quickness and moves as a defensive end at UCF. He also shows that ever important quality of relentlessness that good pass rushers need to stay in games, especially when they’re outsized. He struggles to anchor against the run and can be overwhelmed by bigger offensive linemen. Still he has been a good pass rusher for a number of years, and that by itself will get him drafted, probably around the 4^th round.

Final Pick

                Georgia – This game is just not a good match-up for UCF. 

Chick-fil-a Bowl Preview

South Carolina vs. Florida State

                Steve Spurrier probably studied Florida State’s game against Virginia Tech a lot before this game. Va. Tech exposed a lot about Florida State’s defense when they ripped into that defense. South Carolina has a lot of what Virginia Tech has during that game. Athletic, dual threat quarterback: Check. Strong runningback with a lot of toughness: Check. A strong defense that can pressure the quarterback: Check. The Gamecocks also have one thing that Virginia Tech really lacked; an elite, game-breaking wide receiver. While the Florida State defense has gotten better in the secondary, Alshon Jeffery is the kind of receiver who can take a small weakness and turn it into a major hole. Florida State has to be able to pressure Stephen Garcia into making mistakes. Their front four is fairly good at causing pressure, however they have a harder time shutting down running lanes and if they don’t do a good job of tackling Garcia, he can hurt them with his legs.

                Florida State should be able to find ways to move the ball if the mix their play calling up enough. South Carolina’s defense has really faced a zone-blocking team like Florida State this season and has a somewhat suspect secondary. If Florida State can run the ball effectively with Ty Jones, Chris Thompson and Jermaine Thomas, it’ll open up passing lanes down the field for (likely starting) Christian Ponder. Ponder has very good awareness of what’s going on around him so he should be able to exploit any mistakes that the South Carolina secondary makes. The Gamecocks may have to just keep their safeties deep regardless of what Florida State is doing offensively because Seminoles receivers Bert Reed and Taiwan Easterling are speed demons that are at their best when working deep routes. Look for a lot of play-actions passes from Florida State in this game.

Prospects to Watch

                South Carolina

                                Cliff Matthews – Defensive End: Cliff Matthews like a lot of other college defensive ends, good enough to be successful in college but lacks the physical tools to be thought of as a consistent NFL player. He is a work-hard player with adequate explosion who knows what moves to use to rush the quarterback. He has a good frame and experience playing form a 2-point stance. That being said, he doesn’t have the explosion to consistently beat more elite left tackles nor does he have the strength to anchor against bigger run blocking tackles. He could work as a third-down pass rusher in a 3-4, which will get him some play in the 6^th round.

                Florida State

                                Rodney Hudson – Offensive Guard/Center: Hudson doesn’t have elite strength and is a touch shorter than is ideal for a guard. However, those are about his only flaws, and you wouldn’t be able to tell those by watching his game. He knows what his assignment is, knows how to communicate with his fellow offensive lineman and is able to effectively pick up stunts. He has shown excellent ability to drive defenders off the ball and lock them out in pass protection. Hudson is perhaps the best guard prospect coming into this year’s draft and could find himself going in the first round, thought he second round is more likely for interior lineman.

Final Pick

                South Carolina – The Gamecocks have been up for every game they’ve played this year and Virginia Tech gave them the blue print to beat Florida State. I think they follow that blue print. 

Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview

South Florida vs. Clemson

                Clemson has dealt with bit of controversy since losing to South Carolina in the last game of the regular season. Regular starting quarterback Kyle Parker was benched following a pick-six in the third-quarter of that game. He and Clemson Head Coach Dabo Sweeney had a heated exchange on the sidelines following that decision and Parker is not expected to return next season, choosing instead to focus on his baseball career. That is going to make this a much harder game for Clemson to dominate if they end up switching their quarterbacks half way through the game. Due to this, they need to lean on their running game, which has been led by Jaime Harper since Andre Ellington went down with a foot injury. In recent weeks Clemson has starting using more of a zone-blocking scheme in the running game, which Harper is not very experienced with and it shows. The extra practice should help him in some of the fundamentals. Harper has also been surprisingly unwilling to engage in contact for a back his size. That could be an issue against South Florida’s increasingly stingy run defense. Defensive Tackle Terrell McClain and defensive end Craig Marshall are physical up front, though Marshall can be overwhelmed on short yardage situations. On the other hand, he is a good pass rusher and will be in face of whoever is playing quarterback in this game. The Clemson quarterback(s) will need to take advantage of receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Jaron Brown, and tight end Dwayne Allen. Brown is a big-play threat an Allen challenges the middle every time he runs a route. If South Florida can get some pressure and cause confusion, they can make the Clemson offense one dimensional.

                On the other side, South Florida’s offense has a great challenge laid before them. They are facing a strong defense. The Clemson defensive line, featuring Jarvis Jenkins, Andre Branch and Da’Quan Bowers, is extremely talented and disruptive. If South Florida’s offense line can’t control these players, neither the running nor the passing game will be able to get into rhythm. South Florida has tried to focus part of the offense on running the ball, but has had limited success when quarterback B.J. Daniels isn’t contributing. It’s not that runningbacks Moise Plancher and Demetris Murray are particularly bad; they just don’t fit in the scheme Skip Holtz favors. It’s part of the process when a team changes coaches. South Florida also has problems in the passing game, because they don’t have a game-breaking wide receiver or tight end. Instead, South Florida needs to spread the ball around to various receivers, preferably on quick passes, to loosen up deep coverage and give Daniels a little more space to work. As the coverage is tightening on the outside, there will be more opportunities for Daniels to run to the middle of the field. This is assuming that South Florida offensive line can handle the talented defensive line of Clemson. Clemson’s secondary is also talented, but more inconsistent. They’ll be helped by Daniels who is a less than stellar decision-maker, and if he’s pressured he is more likely to turn the ball over.

Prospects to Watch

                South Florida

                                Craig Marshall – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Marshall brings good size and effort, but is somewhat limited as a player. He has a variety of moves he uses to get to the quarterback, but isn’t the fastest player off the ball. He also has a tendency to get overwhelmed by bigger offensive tackles in the run game, though he can set the edge when he uses good technique. He fits better as a pass rush specialist in a 3-4 than as a regular defensive end. His motor will attract some interest, but not before the 4^th round.

                Clemson

                                DeAndre McDaniel – Safety: McDaniel is a player that brings a lot of athleticism to the safety position. He has shown through his career at Clemson that he has great ball hawking skills and good, though not great, range. His has a big tall frame, which is going to make him harder to throw over when quarterbacks try to drop the ball in over his head. However, he might not have the speed to consistently match-up man-to-man and he has a tendency to peek in the backfield, leading to him getting caught on play-action passes. When you add that play-making potential to his solid ability in run defense, you have a complete safety that is going to get a shot in the second or third round.

Final Pick

                Clemson – While I would normally never pick a team that has a question at their quarterback spot, this one is hard to pick against. Clemson’s defense is capable of dominating anyone they play. I’m just not of the opinion that South Florida will be to get enough offense going to win this game. 

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl

Nebraska vs. Washington

                This game is all about quarterback play. Nebraska needs regular starter and star Taylor Martinez to be able to play at full strength. Their offense has been based around his ability to run the ball since he took the starting job in training camp. While Roy Helu is a dangerous runningback in his own right, so much of his production comes from teams keying in on Martinez and leaving him in favorable match-up situations. Washington’s defense got gashed by the Huskers rushing offense earlier in this season and while that experience should give Washington a better idea of what they need to do to be successful in this game, it doesn’t necessarily make the Washington defenders faster. Washington would do well to have one of their safeties spying Martinez at all times. If they can neutralize him with just one player, it’ll be easier for the rest of the defense to key on Helu and backup runningback Rex Burkhead. The problem with doing that is that it makes it a little easier for Nebraska to take shots down the field. That’s not a big risk to take though, since Martinez is an inconsistent passer. Nebraska knows that their success has been built on the ground game and they aren’t likely to deviate from that formula in this game. Look for Washington linebacker Mason Foster to have a lot of tackles.

                On the other side, Washington quarterback Jake Locker is having a terrible season, with his worst game of the year coming when Washington played Nebraska earlier this season. In that game, he went 4 for 20 with two picks. I doubt we’ll see Nebraska’s defensive coordinator deviate from the strategy he used in that game. Expect to see a lot of pressure with few blitzes, as Jared Crick and Pierre Allen are both able to win against the Washington offensive line in one-on-one match-ups. I wouldn’t be surprised to see blitzes though, the Nebraska secondary is very deep and very talented, highlighted by Prince Amukamura. Amukamura is one of the premiere corners in college football and should have few problems shutting down one side of the field. Washington should try to force the ball down Nebraska’s throat with runningback Chris Polk. Run defense has been an issue for Nebraska, with their defensive line being very inconsistent at anchoring against the run. Once Polk has the attention of the defense, Washington can use bootlegs and rollouts to get Locker away from the pressure of the defensive line. He can even help in the running game by taking off out of those plays.

Prospects to Watch

                Nebraska

                                Prince Amukamura – Cornerback: Amukamura came into the season with high expectations and continues to meet those expectations. His great combination of speed, recognition skills, ball skills and ability to step up in run support have helped him be considered among the top five defensive players coming into the draft this year. He has great long speed, though his ability to explode through directional changes is somewhat questionable, which will allow NFL receivers to get some separation from him in comeback and out routes. However he has enough speed that even if the receiver does get away from him, he shuts the window on that separation extremely fast. Look for him to be a top ten to fifteen pick.

                Washington

                                Jake Locker – Quarterback: Once considered the top prospect in the Draft, Locker has fallen on hard times of late. He throughout the course of his senior season, Locker has consistently shown that his decision-making ability just isn’t good enough to succeed at the NFL level; at least not yet. That being said, he still comes into the bowl season with an impressive set of physical gifts, including the strongest arm that will be available in the draft this year. He also has good athleticism and accuracy, though he still will try to force balls into windows that just aren’t there. He also has a lengthy injury history, most of it coming from the Tyrone Willingham days. In-spite of the flaws he has shown, he still is thought well enough of, that he is likely to go somewhere between late first and early third rounds.

Final Pick

                Nebraska – With Martinez expected to be back to form and Locker having a bad year, it’s difficult not to see a repeat of the whipping the Cornhuskers gave the Huskies earlier this season. 

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl Preview

North Carolina vs. Tennessee

                These are two incredibly similar teams. Both teams have succeeded in passing the ball and playing solid defense. This game may make it harder for either team to find success through the air, so they need to be able to balance that passing with an effective ground game. North Carolina is more likely to succeed on that count, with Anthony Elzy (the starter for this game with Johnny White and Shaun Draughn both down with injuries) being able to compete against Tennessee linebackers. Elzy is a patient, tough runner who won’t simply go down on first contact. Even if he doesn’t gain a lot of yards playing this way, he can take some of the pressure off of quarterback T.J. Yates. Yates is a very good passer, especially down field where he has weapons like Dwight Jones. Jones is a big receiver with more than enough speed to get behind a secondary and threaten the end zone on almost every play. He should draw at least a double team every time he goes long, allowing fellow receiver Josh Adams and Erik Highsmith, tight end Ed Barham and Elzy have relatively free reign in the underneath routes. The best way for Tennessee to counter this North Carolina offense is to blitz, a lot. UNC’s offensive line has had a hard time picking up the blitz and knocking Yates off his rhythm can create opportunities for safety Janzen Jackson and corner Prentiss Waggner to build on their combined nine interceptions. However, blitzing will also leave Jones and company in a lot of single coverage, which will be very dangerous to do if the rush is not getting to Yates.

                Tennessee will have a harder time on in both aspects of offense, because they are led by true freshman Tyler Bray. While I have nothing against true freshman starting at quarterback, a talented and athletic defense like the one North Carolina has can easily confuse him and get turnovers from him. The only real advantage the Tennessee 0passing game will have over the UNC secondary is the fact that wide receiver Gerald Jones and Denarius Moore are both big and should be able to box out the smaller North Carolina corners. Also, tight end Luke Stocker is a good option down the seam and in the red zone, but the linebackers for the Tar Heels are very fast and should be able to keep up with him in man-to-man coverage. Runningback Tauren Poole is a good downhill runner with good acceleration, but he requires a seam to be very effective. Against the UNC defensive line, even depleted as it is, that could be a problem. Defensive Tackle Quinton Coples is fast and active, drawing at least two blockers to him on most plays. Without these extra linemen moving to the second level, Poole is going to have a hard time getting away from linebackers Quan Sturdivant, Kevin Reddick and Zach Brown. Tennessee’s offensive line needs to be in top form if they want to move the ball with any amount of consistency against the Tar Heels defense.

Prospects to Watch

                North Carolina

                                Quan Sturdivant – Linebacker: Much like most of the talented players on the Tar Heels, Sturdivant has had off-the-field issues this year that bring his judgment into question. That’ll hurt him come draft day; however it won’t be enough to slide him past the 3^rd round. His great athletic talent and sound tackling technique are extremely attractive to most teams. Sturdivant is more of an athlete than a sound technique linebacker, which is concerning. However talent gets a guy like Sturdivent farther in the draft process than experience or sound play. He’s likely to go in the first two rounds.

                Tennessee

                                Luke Stocker – Tight End: Stoker brings a good combination of speed and toughness to the position. He has soft hands; good enough speed to stretch the seam and is a willing blocker. He’s a bit of a throwback to tight ends that could block as well as make plays in the receiving game. However he has less than great athleticism and that is going to hurt his draft stock. He can be a number one on teams that don’t use a lot of spread formations, or a good blocking tight end on other teams. Look for him to get drafted between the 3^rd and 5^th round.

Final Pick

                North Carolina – A vetern defense playing against a true freshman quarterback. Is it really a wonder I went with this pick? 

New Era Pinstripes Bowl Preview

Kansas State vs. Syracuse

                This game is all about who can run and when they can run. Both teams bring strong running games and questionable quarterback situations to the table, so I expect this game to be low scoring and old school.

                Kansas State has a great runningback in Daniel Thomas and he basically is the Kansas State offense. When he is successful, the Kansas State offense is successful, when he falters, they fail. Everyone in college football is aware of this fact and it allows Syracuse to stack the box with safety Shamarko Thomas. That’s bad news for a Kansas State offensive line that already has to deal with defensive tackles Bud Tribbey and Andrew Lewis both of whom are good at gaining leverage an opposing lineman and closing down running lanes. For the lanes that do open up, linebackers Derrell Smith and Doug Hogue will likely be there to plug those holes. The passing game will likely be an afterthought, as starting quarterback Carson Coffman has not been good this season and the Syracuse secondary is very talented. Kansas State may be better served just lining Daniel Thomas up at quarterback the majority of the game.

                Syracuse may take more chances in the passing game, but quarterback Ryan Nassib has been only slightly better than Coffman and is best off the play-action. Syracuse is more likely to focus their game on pounding the rock with runningbacks Delone Carter and Antwon Bailey. Carter will be the focal point and probably see the most carries. He is a strong runner who can break arm tackles and punish those who don’t try to wrap him up when they tackle. Kansas State’s secondary has been notorious for their bad tackling and that is a weakness that will be exposed by Carter.

Prospects to Watch

                Kansas State

                                Daniel Thomas – Runningback: Thomas has a good combination of size, strength and speed. This gives him a good edge over other runningbacks in this draft, because there won’t be the questions about his durability. He has shown great production, competitiveness, vision and power. However he has only average speed and agility, and his polish in pass protection is less than great. The he does have are still difficult to ignore and unless he tests horribly between now and the draft, he’ll go in the second or third round. A good 40 time may even sneak him into the late first round.

                Syracuse

                                Ryan Bartholomew – Offensive Center/Guard: While he lacks prototypical size, Bartholomew is solid, experienced center who knows how to compete at the line of scrimmage. He is deceptively strong and could make the transition to guard where his size will be less of an issue against 3-4 defenses. However size does matter on the offensive line and if he is drafted, it’ll probably be in the 7^th round.

Final Pick

                Syracuse – A stronger defense and runningbacks whose strengths will be enhanced by the weaknesses of the Kansas State defense lead me to this pick. 

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Army vs. SMU

                On paper, this game looks like one of those interesting run heavy vs. pass heavy offensive battles. However, the result of this game will come down to a simple battle of quarterbacks. The team that wins this game will be the team that got better play from their starting quarterback, though the stats sheets will look very different for these two.

                Army comes into this game with a blueprint they should try to follow if they want to win this game. SMU played Navy earlier in the year and lost, though the game was close. If they look at what Navy did, particularly in the second half of the game, and mix their version of those plays into their normal play calling, they could have great success again the SMU defense, which has been undisciplined at times this season. A lot of their success will be dependent on whether or not quarterback Trent Steelman can carry out his fakes and pith the ball when it’s necessary. He may not be Ricky Dobbs, but he is good within the system and should be able to keep the SMU defense guessing as to where the ball is going from play to play. His ability to do this will help suck the linebackers to the interior of the offensive line, where they get caught up on blocks and have trouble wading through traffic to make tackles on the outside. He’ll also need to pass efficiently when Army does decide to throw the ball. One of the reasons Navy came on so strong in the second half of the game against SMU, was because they were able to make first downs through the air when they needed to. He has good options for the pitch and pass in slot backs Patrick Mealy, Malcolm Brown and Brian Cobbs. All of them are fast enough to turn the corner on misdirection and make plays on short pass plays. On longer pass plays, wide receivers George Jordan, Austin Barr and Davyd Brooks are all bigger than 6-3, giving Steelman good targets in the redzone, especially since none of the SMU corners are bigger than 5-11.

                SMU needs to have a good game from quarterback Kyle Padron. The run and shoot offense that head coach June Jones uses requires that the quarterback be able to play consistently and make good reads. Padron, a sophomore, is just not there when it comes to pre-snap reads or being able to consistently beat blitzes. If Army can disrupt his rhythm but bring more rushers than the offensive line can handle, Padron will more than likely make a number of mistakes. However there is a risk in doing that, as Jones could just dial up a lot of quick passes to slot receivers Darius Johnson and Cole Beasley, one of whom is likely to be lined up against a linebacker. Both are more than fast enough to beat whomever SMU lines up against them man-on-man. If that doesn’t work, they can dial up bubble screens to Aldrick Robinson to slow the Army pass rush. They’re lucky to have an effective runner in Zach Line who helps keep the offense balanced and defense off-guard.

Prospects to Watch

                Army

                                Due to Military Commitments, no Army players are projected to be drafted this year.

                SMU

                                Aldrick Robinson – Wide Receiver: Robinson is a lot like Emmanuel Sanders from a year ago. He is undersized and may not compete well on long balls, but he has great quickness and works underneath routes very well. He can definitely be an asset to a team but still projects to the 5^th round because the system he plays in produces players like this quite a bit. A good forty time could help his cause.

Final Pick

                Army – I have more faith in the senior Trent Steelman to succeed in the triple-option than I do that Kyle Padron will succeed in the run and shoot. 

Valero Alamo Bowl Preview

Oklahoma State vs. Arizona

                This game is going to come down to a strength vs. strength battle. Oklahoma State relies heavily on their offense, particularly the passing game to win games. Brandon Weeden has quickly adjusted to the wide spread scheme that offensive coordinator Dana Holgersen uses and put up great numbers in spite of it being his first year as a starter. Great deal of that comes from the fact that he has the most explosive player in college football, Justin Blackmon, playing receiver for him. Blackmon has great long speed and can explode out of routes to gain separation from college corners. Arizona is likely to roll coverage towards Blackmon, leaving opportunities for the other receivers in one-on-one coverage. The Arizona secondary needs to be able to tackle well in space, both on Blackmon and the other receivers. While none of the others have the kind of explosiveness that Blackmon has, Josh Cooper and Bo Bowling are good at working over the middle and keeping the chains moving. The Arizona secondary doesn’t have a great deal of depth so they’re going to rely on their pass rush to keep Weeden off-balance. Defensive Ends Brooks Reed and Rickey Elmore are great effort plays and should get good pressure on Weeden. Additionally, when Weeden is pressured or forced to move around in the pocket, he has a tendency to break down mechanically and force throws. To help slow the Arizona pass rush, Oklahoma State is going to need a big game from runningback Kendall Hunter. That could be a problem, because Arizona has been better defending the run against spread offenses than they have against pro sets.

                On the flip side, Arizona’s offense likes to mix up what kind of formations they’re using by using both spread and pro styles looks. However, they have had trouble running the ball with any amount of consistency regardless of the formation they are running out of. Nic Grigsby has breakaway potential, but has been hampered by an ankle injury during the second half of the season. Keola Antolin has filled in admirably but doesn’t make a lot of defenders miss. Oklahoma State has gotten better at defending the run as the season has gone on, but if Arizona can mix their play calling up enough, they shouldn’t be able to move the ball on ground when it’s needed. The key for Arizona will be the play of quarterback Nick Foles. Foles has a good arm, is good a pre-snap reads and knows how to put just enough touch on the ball to drop it in of defenders. His favorite target is Juron Criner, a fast receiver with good hands. Criner gives Foles a deep option that allows him to distribute the ball to the other receivers evenly. Oklahoma State’s defense needs to pressure Foles into making mistakes. Their secondary has done a good job causing turnovers through the season, but it has also left them open to allowing big plays. If Foles can limit his mistakes, he should get a few opportunities to hit a big play.

Prospects to Watch

                Oklahoma State

                                Kendall Hunter – Runningback: Hunter has been a very productive runningback out of spread system at Oklahoma State. However, much like other spread option runningbacks, he is undersized and relies more on speed than power to gain most of his yards. He doesn’t have great long speed or experience as a returner, so he won’t be given as much consideration as other smaller backs. But his skill set fits in well as a third down back. He’ll probably go on the last day of the draft (fourth to seventh round).

                Arizona

                                Brooks Reed – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Reed is a classical effort over talent kind of player. He does have good but not great athleticism, which for an undersized defensive end, hurts his draft stock. However he shows great technique and a variety of pass rush moves, allolwing him to produce well. He does have good burst off the edge, which can give him an edge against slower tackles. He does get blown off the ball in the run game, but he uses his technique to still be a solid run defender. He will definitely get drafted, probably between the 3^rd and 6^th round.

Final Pick

                Oklahoma State – While I really like Nick Foles and the Arizona defense, Oklahoma State has a lot of weapons and will pop more than just a few big plays for touchdowns. Arizona will have a hard time keeping pace. 

Texas Bowl Preview

Illinois vs. Baylor

                While both teams use spread type offenses, they couldn’t be more different in terms of offensive philosophy. Illinois likes to spread the formation to stretch the defense thin for their potent running game. Mikel Leshoure, the Illinois runningback, ranks fifth in the country in rushing yards, built on the strength of his speed and vision within the system. He also has good size at 230 lbs. so he can lower his shoulder and deliver a hit as well as he can take a hit. When LeShoure is not touting the rock, quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is usually running off a play fake. He has great athleticism and more than enough speed to exploit seams created by over-pursuing defenses. Jason Ford and Jay Prosch will also get occasional carries to help pound the the defense. The real key to this offense is the variety of formations that Illinois uses to rush the ball. They don’t just lineup in the spread option formation, they also use traditional I and single back formations and the pistol to help open up as many ways for their rushers to be successful as possible. Baylor’s linebackers and safeties need to be aware of this and be ready to play disciplined defense and maintain their gap integrity if they want to stop the Illinois rushing game. Defensive Tackles Philtaylor and Nicolas Jean-Baptiste are going to be key in that area. If they can’t take up blockers, then the defense will have a very hard game. Passing shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Illinois. Baylor has a porous pass defense and struggles to keep contain against teams that play from the spread. However Scheelhaase is still very raw and tends to telegraph his throws, giving the Baylor secondary a chance to get some turnovers. Illinois special teams excel at kicking and punting, but not much else. Baylor is very similar so it will be interesting to see how the field position battle unfolds.

                Baylor is a more pass oriented team than Illinois is. Art Briles (Baylor’s head coach) likes to spread formations and find match-up problems in the passing game (it’s a very common practice to see nowadays). The benefit this offense brings is that allows gifted players like Robert Griffin III to use their abilities to their fullest potential. Griffin is not just a runner, though it helps. He has grown as a passer as the season has gone along, allowing him to read his progressions and put the ball where it needs to be. However he may have a hard time doing that in this game with Corey Liuget pressing the pocket from his defensive tackle position. Also, linebackers Martez Wilson, Ian Thomas and Nate Bussey are all capable run and pass defenders, though I wouldn’t line them up man-to-man against Baylor’s slot receivers. Guys like Kendall Wright are far too explosive to be covered by linebackers, though Illinois to roll safeties into coverage and blitz their linebackers to confuse Griffin. This is where the strong running game provided by Jay Finlay and Robert Griffin can be a big help. Finlay knows how to run between the tackles and reads where his offensive line will open up seams very well. If he doesn’t get it done, Griffin is incredibly athletic and will make defenses pay if they ignore him. The Illinois secondary is going to need to be on their guard and be able to tackle well.

Prospects to Watch

                Illinois

                                Corey Liuget – Defensive Tackle: Liuget is a junior defensive tackle with good size that has been gaining momentum over the course of the season with his strong play. Usually I don’t put a lot of stock into single seasons, but they still get drafted quite often. Liuget has good explosion out of his stance and is almost impossible to block one-on-one. He also has good, active hands that help him shed blocks and become disruptive in the backfield. I still question why he is only becoming a good prospect now, but he’s still likely to get drafted in the second or third round.

                Baylor  

                                Phil Taylor – Defensive Tackle: Taylor transferred from Penn State for a reason. His character is an issue that any team trying to draft him must examine very closely. He also doesn’t have the conditioning or athleticism to be an every down player in the NFL. But he does have great size, knows how to anchor against the run and separate from blockers. These talents make him a perfect fit for a 3-4 defensive line that rotates their defensive line a lot. Actually sounds like a perfect prospect for the Patriots. He will likely go during the third day because of his character issues.

Final Pick

                Baylor – While Illinois has an advantage defensively, Baylor has a quarterback who can single handily turn a game on its ear. I think given that kind of talent, Baylor should be the favorite going in. 

Military Bowl Preview

East Carolina vs. Maryland

                This should be a shootout. Neither East Carolina nor Maryland are particularly good defensive teams. East Carolina finished the season ranked 106^th in the country in overall defense. They have had communications issues, shown an inability to rush the quarterback and have shown no ability to get off blocks. While Maryland hasn’t shown the best defense, they still have some quality players, like linebacker Alex Wujciak, cornerback Cameron Chism, and safeties Kenny Tate and Antwine Perez. While Chism and the other cornerbacks have been spotty in coverage, Chism himself is athletic enough to shut down whomever he is covering. The problem is that he can’t cover all the receivers on the field all at the same time. Tate and Perez are great safeties and Alex Wujciak leads a group of linebackers who are disciplined in coverage. However regardless of how disciplined they are, that won’t give them the kind of the athleticism they’ll need to keep pace with the speedy East Carolina receivers. It’s better than East Carolina, but still not great.

                Offensively, East Carolina likes to spread the field, much like Mike Leach did at Texas Tech. They like to use four and five wide receiver formations and move their best receivers (Lance Lewis and Dwayne Harris) to the interior receiver positions to help create mismatches in coverage. They have a surprisingly good quarterback in Dominique Davis who can make plays in the offense. However he also ha he tendency to press and force balls into coverage that he shouldn’t. That will lead to turnover if he tries it in this game. The Pirates must get support from the running game, which has been ok, but far from great. They’ve been able to run when they choose to, but they don’t run a great deal because of their great passing game. Maryland counters with a solid passing game and not much else. Maryland should try a pound the ball on the ground to make sure that the Pirates aren’t dropping seven into coverage. Otherwise they may have a hard time getting the ball to Torrey Smith, their big play receiver. Smith has been able to consistently beat coverage deep and will not have an issue doing that in this game. Not with East Carolina’s pass defense as leaky as it has been all season.

                The big wild card here is going to be the specials teams of both competitors. The each of the big play receivers, Dwayne Harris and Torrey Smith are also big time return men. Smith’s numbers may not show it, since opponents have gone out of their way to avoid putting the ball into his hands. Harris on the other hand has had plenty of opportunities to show his talents and has made all the teams that have challenged him pay. Both teams need their return game to be in top form to make up for the poor running games.

Prospects to Watch

                East Carolina

                                Dwayne Harris – Wide Receiver: Harris brings experience as a returner and a willingness to play over the middle. He doesn’t have the type of elite speed to break away from NFL coverage but he knows how to run routes and catch the ball away from his body. He may not be an elite receiver, but he could be a strong number two for a team down the line. He’s an option between the third and fifth round.

                Maryland

                                Alex Wujciak – Linebacker: Wujciak is an extremely productive interior linebacker who may struggle to find a team willing to give him a chance in the NFL. While he shows great awareness, toughness, work ethic and tackling technique; he is limited athletically and isn’t a great threat to some off the edge. He’s going to be thought of as a two down linebacker could only be used as a starter in a pinch. He couldn’t fit in as an outside linebacker since he doesn’t blitz well and is not great at pass coverage. He should get some play in the third or fourth round, but don’t be surprised to see him fall to the last two rounds if he does impress during the testing process.

Final Pick

                Maryland – East Carolina has a terrible defense and Maryland’s defense is good enough to slow down Dominique Davis and the East Carolina offense. 

Insight Bowl Preview

Missouri vs. Iowa

                It’s rare that a game comes down to being as one-sided as this one is. The entire game comes down to how well the Missouri offense plays against the Iowa defense. While the Iowa offense has been effective offensively through most of the year, they have fallen off late in the season in all aspects of the offense. In addition, the Hawkeyes lost lead rusher Adam Robinson and second leading receiver (and dynamic kick returner) Derrell Johnson-Koulianos to suspensions. This leaves Ricky Stanzi’s best receiver Marvin McNutt alone to deal with the majority of the Missouri coverage. Stanzi has to be able to spread the ball out and make some plays himself if he wants to keep Iowa in the game. It’s going to be difficult against a Missouri defense that racked up 38 sacks and 18 interceptions. Iowa is going to need to be creative offensively if they want to stay in this game.

                That’s why this game mostly comes down to the play of the Missouri offensive line against the Iowa defensive line. Missouri’s offense goes entirely through quarterback Blaine Gabbert, whether it’s running or passing the ball. Missouri doesn’t have any major running threat past Gabbert, who is deceptively good at running the ball. The spread type offense that Missouri runs gives him a big hand as the spread formation spread the defense enough for him to have running room. However when he is spending half of his time running the ball, he losses focus of the opposing pass defense. When Missouri decides to focus on the passing offense, Gabbert excels at the short and intermediate range passing with a plethora of receivers. Jerrel Jackson, T.J. Moe, Wes Kemp and tight end Michael Egnew are talented and experienced within the offense. Egnew is especially dangerous, much like Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman before him; he is a great pass-catching tight end who can split wide to create match-up problems with his size. He is also the Tigers leading receiver. They aren’t going to have an easy time facing the strong defense of the Iowa Hawkeyes. The secondary is strong with corner Shaun Prater and safeties Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood helping Iowa pick off 17 passes on the season. They’re good enough to hold the best receivers down until the pass rush gets to Gabbert. That is going to be the key. If Missouri allows Iowa to pressure Gabbert with their front four, then it allows Iowa to just drop seven in coverage and shut down passing lanes. It’ll be hard for the more undersized Missouri offensive line to keep the talented group of Adrian Clayborn, Karl Klug, Christian Ballard, Mike Daniels and Broderick Binns from pressuring Gabbert, but if they can it gives Missouri an advantage against the Iowa defense. It’ll be interesting to watch.

Prospects to Watch

                Missouri

                                Tim Barnes – Offensive Center/Guard: Barnes is an experienced, instinctual center who shows great smarts working in a wide open offense. He shows great technique and athleticism moving from the line to linebackers. However he also has short arms and not enough strength to deal with bigger defensive lineman. That fact might get him moved to guard in the NFL. Teams that run a zone-blocking offense will give him chance in the last three rounds of the draft.

                Iowa

                                Adrian Clayborn – Defensive End: Possesses all of the physical tools you want from a starting defensive end. While he isn’t the best speed rusher, he has great power and can use that power to press the pocket and disrupt running lanes. He is also very disciplined and won’t get suckered in by play fakes. All that being said, his lack of initial burst, occasional lack of effort defending the running game, inability to drop into coverage and questionable character are really going to hurt his draft stock. If he can improve of athleticism and test well at the combine, he can solidify his spot in the middle to late first round, but even if he doesn’t he could end up dropping into the second round and being a pleasant surprise later in the season, a la Carlos Dunlap of this season.

Final Pick

                Missouri – Iowa is going into this game without their leading runningback and main kick returner (who also happens to be their second leading receiver), both whom were suspended. Losing either one would have made this game hard. Losing both spells doom. Missouri wins. 

Champs Sport Bowl Preview

Champs Sports Bowl

West Virginia vs. North Carolina State

                This game is all about which team does a better job defending the pass. Neither team has done a particularly good job running the ball and both teams are great at defending the run. West Virginia is actually number two in the country in run defense and NC State excels at catching rushers behind the line of scrimmage. However, NC State hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher all season and only seems to turn to the running game if they need to kill the clock. If the running game plays any role in this game, it will favor West Virginia. Their tendency to play close to the line of scrimmage and run blitz has been what keeps their run defense so strong. Also, Noel Devine is the kind of runningback who can break the big play if he is given a crease. However he has been slowed by two and ankle injuries all season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the multi-talented Russell Wilson or Geno Smith leading their respective team in rushing.

                The passing games featured by these two teams are dangerous but also couldn’t feel more different. West Virginia likes to get their wide receivers into space by using quick passes, while NC State uses more traditional route trees and has the receivers who are big play threats on the outside. NC State’s defense needs to tackle well in space and keep an eye towards Tavon Austin. Austin is the big play threat on the West Virginia offense, though he is still rather undersized. It doesn’t help that NC State’s secondary has been giving up a number of big plays late in the season. Look for West Virginia to target CJ Wilson, who is the weakness in the Wolfpack secondary. NC State on the other hand is going to need their offensive line, which has been in consistent this season, to step up and stop the pass rush of the Mountaineers. West Virginia racked up 40 sacks this season after having none in their first two games. They also blitz a lot, a staple of the 3-3-5 defense that they run, however the Wolfpack can use that to their advantage, setting up screens and quick passes that develop where the blitzing players just left. Also, Russell Wilson athleticism will help keep the Mountaineers defense at bay. The only question will be whether wide receivers Jarvis Williams and Owen Spender can beat corners Brandon Hogan and Keith Tandy in one-on-one coverage. If not, NC State will have a hard time stretching the field enough to take advantage of the play of tight ends, T.J. Graham and George Bryan.

                With the Special Teams of both teams being less than impressive to outright bad, it’s doubtful that it will play a major role in this game. I wouldn’t doubt that West Virginia is coming into this game a little less focused than NC State. They were so close to a BCS Bowl game and their head coach Bill Stewart has already been announced as a lame duck coach for next season. That kind of distraction is not something that can be easily ignored.

Prospects to Watch

                West Virginia

                                Noel Devine – Runningback: While Devine has had down year this year; he still will draw considerable interest during the draft. Much like his predecessor, Steve Slaton, his is an undersized speed demon that will be looked at primarily as a third down back. He does not have the experience (and perhaps, not the long speed) to be counted on as a returner. He has shown during his collegiate career that he has good patience, pass blocking technique and pass-catching abilities. However he has also shown that he is no threat to punish opponents in the middle nor can he break a lot of tackles before being brought down. His mindset off-the-field will also be a concern given how rough his life has been. Added to his size (less than 5’8”) he may have a hard time getting drafted in the first two days. But he is likely to come off the board in the third day (rounds 4-7) unless he completely blows his 40 time.

                North Carolina State

                                Nate Irving – Linebacker: While he is a touch shorter than is ideal for an interior linebacker and his judgment will come into question following his involvement in a car accident that cost him the entire 2009 season,  Irving still has enough skills and upside to get a good deal of attention in the upcoming draft. He has shown great awareness and toughness in the run game and good ability to drop into coverage in the passing game. Perhaps his best asset is his willingness to take on blockers and be disruptive. That being said, he also has inconsistent tackling technique and somewhat limited athleticism. Since physical gifts are often more valued by NFL teams than leadership and experience, this will drop him from being a potential 2^nd or 3^rd round pick to a 4^th or 5^th rounder.

Final Pick

                NC State – In addition to the issue regarding their head coach, West Virginia is counting on a lot on 1-on-1 coverage against big and speedy receivers. It also helps that I’ve seen NC State in big games and they know how to prep for games like this one.

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Preview

Air Force vs. Georgia Tech

                This is the showcase of the triple option. Both teams run either a variant of the triple option (Air Force) or the purest version (Georgia Tech) leaving a very old school taste in the mouth of most college fans. The people that benefit from this fact the most are the defensive coordinators for both teams. Since their defenses face the triple option in practice, both teams have experience in defensing it, though I would give Air Force the edge in that category, because they also play Navy who uses the same style of triple option that Georgia Tech uses.

                Air Force’s offense is in better condition than Georgia Tech’s, if for no other reason than they have a healthy and stable quarterback situation. Tim Jefferson is a good runner, solid decision maker within the triple option offense and an effective passer, though his passing ability will probably not been seen very much in this game. He and fullback Nathan Walker are great at drawing defenses away from splitback Asher Clark. Clark is the big play man in the Falcons offense, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He’s a bit more a scatback, relying on burst, elusiveness and speed to challenge defenses. However, he doesn’t have the type of strength to pound defenses inside, so Air Force has to be able to move the ball effectively up the middle with Walker and Jefferson. It’ll be a bit harder to do with regular fullback Jared Tew still suffering from a broken fibula, but Walker, while not as athletic, is a good enough runner in the middle to keep the Yellow Jackets defense on guard. It also helps that the Georgia Tech run defense is horrendous. The front seven of the defense have been bad at maintaining gap and control and getting leverage on opposing offensive lines. Even though they have a big size advantage against the Air Force offensive line, Air Force teaches their offensive line to attack the legs of bigger defenders and it will be hard Georgia Tech to simulate that in practice. Georgia Tech’s secondary is talented; however they won’t be given a lot of chances in the passing game. They need to be able to play disciplined on the edges and near the line in the middle. If not they will have a really long day. Air Force’s Special Teams have been very inconsistent, though kickoff returner Jonathan Warzeka is a threat to break off a big play at any time.

                Georgia Tech’s offense is in a somewhat worse position than the Air Force offense. With regular starter Joshua Nesbitt coming off of a broken arm and not having played for a month, he’ll be rusty and probably out of synch with his splitbacks. That’s dangerous when a good portion of your offense relies on the ball being pitched to the runners behind you. His back-up Tevin Washington is a good runner himself, but isn’t as skilled in the offense. FB Anthony Allen is there and will be a great help, but if the outside runs aren’t there, then there will be little he can do to overcome the deficit that the quarterback and split backs put him in. All of this must be done against a more experienced and more; prepared 3-4 defense, which has played well against offenses similar to the one that Georgia Tech uses. However, Georgia Tech does benefit from Air Force being short two contributors, as defensive end Zach Payne and defensive tackle Bradley Connor are going to miss this game with injuries. This gives Georgia Tech an advantage because Air force will need to rely on a smaller rotation of players to stop the ground game of the Yellow Jackets.

Prospects to Watch

                Air Force

                                Due to Military Commitments, no Air Force players are projected to be drafted this year.            

                Georgia Tech

                                Anthony Allen – Runningback: While his decision to transfer from Louisville is still curious, Allen has shown over the past two years that he is still a good runner. His talents may be a bit overblown by the rush heavy offense he plays in and the match-up problems it creates, but he shows a great deal of competitiveness and power in the way he runs. He may not be a threat to break off a huge run, but he can definitely get 5 or 6 yards at a time. Probably the thing that’s hurting his draft stock the most is the perceived lack of patience he has following blockers and his inexperience in the passing game. He does show a willingness to block, but his technique needs work, shifting from triple option to pro style offenses. He may get some play from teams looking for a backup runner in the 4^th or 5^th round.

Final Pick

                Air Force: In-spite of the injuries to their defense, I think Air Force is better prepared for the triple option. 

Little Caesar's Bowl Preview

Florida International vs. Toledo

                This is all about Florida International’s first trip to a bowl game. While there are numerous match-ups that will determine the outcome of this game, all of that won’t matter if FIU’s players allow themselves to be overwhelmed by the new experience. They do benefit somewhat from facing a Toledo team that has no players that attended their last bowl game (2005) and from question marks at key positions in the Toledo offense.

                Florida International has a strong rushing game, in-spite of not having a dominating runningback. They lost starting runningback Jeremiah Harden to a toe injury part way through the season and began to rely on a committee approach with Darriet Perry and Darrian Mallary. That approach worked very well, helping Florida International rank 28^th in the country in rushing offense. They’re going to have a tough battle against the stingy Toledo run defense, which features a pair of extremely active linebackers in Dan Molls and Archie Donald. If the FIU offensive line can’t keep those two off of their runnningbacks, they are going to have a tough time running the ball and keeping their offense relatively balanced. To that end, the passing offense is going to have to take advantage of the Toledo secondary, which is prone to being caught out of position. Quarterback Wesley Carroll will have to cut down on the number of passes he tries to force into coverage, which has led to his 13 interceptions, especially considering the 19 interceptions that the Toledo pass defense has secured this season. However he also does a good job spreading the ball around and keeping the electrifying T.Y. Hilton in the game. Hilton is the guy Toledo must watch, in every facet of the game. He is an explosive and dangerous receiver, runner and returner. He should be able to force the Toledo defensive backs to stay back and give the Panthers a big play threat on returns.

                Toledo hasn’t slouched on special team either, in-spite of having to shuffle place kickers for most of the season. Returner/Receiver Eric Page ranks fourth in the nation in kick return average and has returned three kicks for touchdowns this season, making for an interesting battle between the special teams. Page also ranks fifth nationally in receptions, taking advantage of his quickness and speed to gain the majority of his yards. The FIU secondary has to do a good job tackling Page, or else he is going to burn them after each catch. The passing game is aided by runningbacks Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams’ ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and keep coverage near the middle, a key in the short outside passing game that Toledo offense emphasizes. Also, wide receiver Kenny Stafford uses his size (6-4) to present match-up problems to an opposing secondary. However all of this depends heavily on which quarterback is playing. The regular starter Austin Dantin is well versed in the Toledo offense, but he missed the final three games of the season with a partially separated shoulder. He is expected to be able to play in this game; however one has to question how good he is going to be come off that injury. While his backup Terrance Owens did lead the Rockets to two victories as a starter, he is far from the best passer and can easily get confused by shifting coverages. FIU does a very good job mixing their coverages from one high safety to two high safeties and, against a young quarterback who has a hard time reading coverage that is a great asset. Should Owens play the majority of the game, Toledo will need to rely heavily on their running game. They probably should lean on that either way, because FIU has a hard time defending the run with undersized and undisciplined defensive tackles Andre Pound and Joshua Forney. Both can be driven off the ball and both struggle to maintain gap control, which will allow the more disciplined Toledo offensive line to drive them off the ball. However their pass protection skills will be put to the tests as these quick tackles and defensive end Tourek Williams will be able to take advantage of any gaps or seams that are left in the pocket. The team’s leader in rushing yards, Adonis Thomas has shown a good ability to work within the offense and should be effective if the offensive line plays well.

Prospects to Watch

                Florida International

                                T.Y. Hilton – Wide Receiver: Much like fellow Sun Belt receiver Jerrel Jernigan, Hilton is an explosive and multi-talented receiver. He has great suddenness and long speed, to go with a good set of hands. When you add all of this to his experience and ability as a returner, you have an attractive draft prospect, should he choose to come out. If he does, he has a chance to be drafted between the 3^rd and 6^th round.

                Toledo

                                Kevin Kowalski – Offensive Center: A strong and tough leader in the middle, Kowalaksi lacks the kind of athleticism that many would look for in a center. That being said, he is more than willing to engage and play tough against big defensive tackles. He can find a home somewhere between the 5^th round and the end of the draft.

Final Pick

                Toledo – While I admit the fact that Dantin’s ability to play will have an effect on this pick, I still think that the bright lights of the big stage will overwhelm the FIU Panthers. 

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Preview

Hawaii vs. Tulsa

                While most of these bowl games are about match-ups, this one is more about the numerous mismatches that this game highlights. On the one hand, you have the powerful Hawaii passing game facing the porous pass defense of Tulsa. On the other hand, you have the versatility of the Tulsa offense and the excellence of their special teams against the mediocre defense and downright weak special teams of Hawaii.

                After two down years following Junes Jones’ decision to leave for SMU, Hawaii is back in a bowl game and it doesn’t look like they’ve changed that much. Their offense still features a spread offense that takes advantage of match-ups and is difficult to contain. The only real difference between the great Hawaii team that made it all the way to the Sugar Bowl and this team is that this team has a strong running game. Don’t be fooled by the 106^th ranking, Hawaii rushers averaged 5 yards a carry over the course of the year, led by Alex Greene. On 133 carries, Green averaged 8.8 yards a carry and scored 17 touchdowns. He kept defenses from dropping six, seven or eight into coverage. That allowed Bryant Moniz, Greg Salas, Kealoha Pilares, Royce Pollard and Rodney Bradley to run rough shot over opposing defenses. Salas and Pilares are the keys to this passing offense, even though they are both slot receivers. When they’re not breaking down underneath coverages; Pollard and Bradley are stretching the field vertically and keeping defenses on their toes. Against the Tulsa pass defense, the matchup problems that the Hawaii offense brings with them will just overmatch the young and raw Tulsa defense. The only way Tulsa will be able to slow down the passing game is if they can get a good pass rush on blitzes, because the Hawaii offensive line has struggled with pass protection at times.

                On the flip side, Tulsa uses a similar spread offense, but also uses a lot of gadget plays. Quarterback G.J. Kinne has a lot of experience in the Tulsa system and knows how to carry out play fakes, read defenses and zip ball into underneath receivers with little concern. He can occasional sail the ball on deep passes, but otherwise he is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and should be able to dissect the Hawaii secondary. He has the benefit of a great receiver in Damaris Johnson and a versatile fullback in Charles Clay. Both provide a rushing and receiving threat as gadget plays are used to find matchup problems against the defense. Also, Kinne is an effective runner, knowing when to break into the open. The biggest issue that the Tulsa offense is going to face against this Hawaii defense is the play of the veteran secondary. Hawaii leads the nation with 23 interceptions and will take full advantage of any miscues in the Tulsa offense. However, with Tulsa’s love of trick plays, the Hawaii defense will also have to be patient and disciplined to avoid getting caught out of position. This could limit the Hawaii defensive backs, notably Mana Silva, in how aggressive they can be in coverage.

                It’s also a huge difference in terms of talent on special teams. While Hawaii has a good placekicker, their return game is almost non-existent and their punting game is nothing special, certainly not enough to overcome the great special teams of Tulsa. Punter Michael Michael Such ranks third in punt average and returner Damaris Johnson is the all-time leader in kick return average. The field position provided by these two could be more than enough to overcome the advantage that Hawaii’s offense has over the  Tulsa defense.

Prospects to Watch

                Hawaii

                                Greg Salas – Wide Receiver: While Salas’ excellent production may be over blown by the wide-open offense, in which he plays; his skills are far from over-blown. Salas knows how to do the subtle things to beat coverage. He also has excellent ball skills and the toughness to play over the middle. He doesn’t have a ton of explosiveness coming out of his breaks, but he definitely has the long speed to win foot races against most defenders. He does need to work on dealing with psychical receivers, but that kind of technique will come with NFL coaching.  Salas will make great slot receiver for a team that drafts him any time during or after the third round.

                Tulsa

                                Charles Clay – Fullback/Tight End: Remember Brian Leonard? That great versatile fullback from Rutgers who is now a solid third-down back with the Bengals? That’s who Charles Clay reminds me of. He doesn’t have kind of athleticism or power to survive as a runningback or traditional fullback in the NFL. However he does well enough in all areas to succeed with some coaching. His best assets are his ability to run tough in short yardage situations and wiggle free on short passes. He should be considered in the 4^th round or later.

Final Pick

                                Hawaii – Tulsa faces a lot of teams that use a spread offense similar to Hawaii’s, including SMU led by June Jones (the former Hawaii coach). Those have been the closest games on their schedule and accounts for all of their losses. I think that this game will mimic those losses, including leaving Tulsa on the short end.