New Mexico Bowl
UTEP vs. BYU
Oddly enough, for two teams that normally feature such similar offensive attacks, these two teams couldn’t be more different. The young BYU Cougars started the season off rough, but led by true freshman Jake Heaps, they have win five of their last seven games. UTEP on the other hand, has faltered after a hot start, losing five of their last six; three of which came to teams that did not make bowls this year. Also oddly enough, UTEP is led by a senior quarterback, Trevor Vittatoe who has been going through second half of the season on an ankle injury that isn’t expected to be healed in time for the game. Since suffering that injury, the UTEP passing offense simply hasn’t been what it was before the injury. BYU also has the advantage defensively, though their stats wouldn’t give you that impression. They have played a lot of teams that have very strong running games and that ruined their rush defense numbers. UTEP is almost exactly the opposite, relying on weak teams to give them better stats than they would have otherwise.
Prospects to Watch
UTEP
Kris Adams – Wide Receiver: His smaller school roots and lack of consistent big plays has left him very low on most team’s radars. However, his 20.8 yards per catch average and 11 touchdowns are difficult to ignore as well. Adams provides blazing speed to provide a deep threat that many teams will find very intriguing and his 6-3 frame gives him an advantage in the red zone. If he tests well in the weeks leading up to the Draft, he has a good shot of being drafted between the 5th and 7th round.
BYU
Matt Reynolds – Offensive Tackle: Matt Reynolds is a nightmare to evaluate for draft fans. There are so many mixed reports on where he should go in the draft and how good he has the potential to be in the pros. He reminds a bit of current Vikings right tackle Phil Loadholt. His pass protection is still raw, but he is a strong run blocker with sound technique and good awareness. While he doesn’t have the best athleticism, he can work his way into shape and become a solid right tackle. He could go off the board somewhere between the late first round (if you believe Kiper) and the fifth or sixth round (if you believe McShay).
Final Pick
BYU – Less injury riddled and has a stronger defense.
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Northern Illinois has had one their best seasons in years but still couldn’t pull out a MAC title. A great deal of their success relies on the running game and efficient passing in order for them to win games. A solid defense helps, but given how badly Miami (Ohio) smacked around their defense in the MAC title game, it might just not be up to the standard that Fresno State plays at. Fresno State is going to have to rely on their dominant defensive play in order to contain the Northern Illinois offense. Tied for sixth in the nation in sacks, Fresno State knows how to rattle and quarterback, which will leave Northern Illinois relying on runningback Chad Spann to provide big plays. If they can keep him contained, preferably with their front four, then they should have little issue plugging the Northern Illinois offense. It also helps that Fresno State quarterback Ryan Colburn has the ability to be a dynamic passer, though he is inconsistent. Fresno State also sports a strong running game behind the talents of Robbie Rouse. The only question is whether or not Rouse will be healthy enough to provide a good counter-balance to the passing game.
Prospects to Watch
Northern Illinois
Chad Spann – Runningback: Northern Illinois has turned into a bit fo a Runningback factory. Between Michael Turner and Garrett Wolfe, you can always trust Northern Illinois to find a good player to tout the rock. While he probably won’t be drafted because of his less than ideal size (5’-9”, 198 lb.), he has shown the ability to at least be a third back in a system.
Fresno State
Chris Carter – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Carter doesn’t provide a big enough frame to fit in most 4-3 schemes as a defensive end. But like many good college defensive ends, he can find a spot in 3-4 defense as an outside linebacker. His 11 sacks, 16.5 tackles for a loss and 4 forced fumbles are all good reasons to believe he has the skills to be a dangerous pass rush specialist in the NFL.
Final Pick
Fresno State – A strong defense outweighs a healthier offense in my eyes. Besides, the turmoil caused by former Northern Illinois head coach Jerry Kill’s decision to leave from Minnesota can’t be helping the Northern Illinois Player’s mindset.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Ohio vs. Troy
This one of those battles between completely conflicting styles of offense. Ohio likes to pound the rock while Troy runs the more in-vague spread offense. This really plays into the weaknesses of both teams. While Troy has had a very hard times defending the run (and through over-compensation, the pass), Ohio has not been able to get themselves off the field on passing downs. Normally, in that case I would say that Ohio would have the advantage because most spread offenses are more dink and dunk and not as explosive. However, Troy’s Jerrel Jernigan has his picture in the dictionary next to the term explosive. So while Ohio could shave 8-9 minutes off the clock on one scoring drive, Jernigan (who also returns punts and kickoffs) could immediately score on any play, tying the game up in a few seconds. It also wouldn’t help if Ohio just focused all coverage on Jernigan, because Troy has several options in the passing game, all of whom can push the defensive backs of Ohio.
Prospects to Watch
Ohio
Donovan Fletcher – Safety: Another MAC prospect who is less likely to be drafted, but has all the skills a team wants in an extra defensive back and special teams ace. His five picks this year are difficult to completely discount.
Troy
Jerrel Jernigan – Wide Receiver: Like I said early, this guy is the very definition of explosiveness. That fact by itself would get him the attention of the NFL scouts, but when you add in his versatility (which is somewhat reminiscent of Percy Harvin) and willingness to be a kickoff and punt returner, he has put himself squarely on the radar of many NFL scouts. A good 40 time could lock him in as 3rd to 5th round pick.
Final Pick
Troy – In-spite of a porous defense, explosiveness usually makes up for it in the college game. Troy definitely as more athleticism on their team than Ohio right now and I think that fact is going to bite Ohio in the butt.
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