Illinois vs. Baylor
While both teams use spread type offenses, they couldn’t be more different in terms of offensive philosophy. Illinois likes to spread the formation to stretch the defense thin for their potent running game. Mikel Leshoure, the Illinois runningback, ranks fifth in the country in rushing yards, built on the strength of his speed and vision within the system. He also has good size at 230 lbs. so he can lower his shoulder and deliver a hit as well as he can take a hit. When LeShoure is not touting the rock, quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase is usually running off a play fake. He has great athleticism and more than enough speed to exploit seams created by over-pursuing defenses. Jason Ford and Jay Prosch will also get occasional carries to help pound the the defense. The real key to this offense is the variety of formations that Illinois uses to rush the ball. They don’t just lineup in the spread option formation, they also use traditional I and single back formations and the pistol to help open up as many ways for their rushers to be successful as possible. Baylor’s linebackers and safeties need to be aware of this and be ready to play disciplined defense and maintain their gap integrity if they want to stop the Illinois rushing game. Defensive Tackles Philtaylor and Nicolas Jean-Baptiste are going to be key in that area. If they can’t take up blockers, then the defense will have a very hard game. Passing shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Illinois. Baylor has a porous pass defense and struggles to keep contain against teams that play from the spread. However Scheelhaase is still very raw and tends to telegraph his throws, giving the Baylor secondary a chance to get some turnovers. Illinois special teams excel at kicking and punting, but not much else. Baylor is very similar so it will be interesting to see how the field position battle unfolds.
Baylor is a more pass oriented team than Illinois is. Art Briles (Baylor’s head coach) likes to spread formations and find match-up problems in the passing game (it’s a very common practice to see nowadays). The benefit this offense brings is that allows gifted players like Robert Griffin III to use their abilities to their fullest potential. Griffin is not just a runner, though it helps. He has grown as a passer as the season has gone along, allowing him to read his progressions and put the ball where it needs to be. However he may have a hard time doing that in this game with Corey Liuget pressing the pocket from his defensive tackle position. Also, linebackers Martez Wilson, Ian Thomas and Nate Bussey are all capable run and pass defenders, though I wouldn’t line them up man-to-man against Baylor’s slot receivers. Guys like Kendall Wright are far too explosive to be covered by linebackers, though Illinois to roll safeties into coverage and blitz their linebackers to confuse Griffin. This is where the strong running game provided by Jay Finlay and Robert Griffin can be a big help. Finlay knows how to run between the tackles and reads where his offensive line will open up seams very well. If he doesn’t get it done, Griffin is incredibly athletic and will make defenses pay if they ignore him. The Illinois secondary is going to need to be on their guard and be able to tackle well.
Prospects to Watch
Illinois
Corey Liuget – Defensive Tackle: Liuget is a junior defensive tackle with good size that has been gaining momentum over the course of the season with his strong play. Usually I don’t put a lot of stock into single seasons, but they still get drafted quite often. Liuget has good explosion out of his stance and is almost impossible to block one-on-one. He also has good, active hands that help him shed blocks and become disruptive in the backfield. I still question why he is only becoming a good prospect now, but he’s still likely to get drafted in the second or third round.
Baylor
Phil Taylor – Defensive Tackle: Taylor transferred from Penn State for a reason. His character is an issue that any team trying to draft him must examine very closely. He also doesn’t have the conditioning or athleticism to be an every down player in the NFL. But he does have great size, knows how to anchor against the run and separate from blockers. These talents make him a perfect fit for a 3-4 defensive line that rotates their defensive line a lot. Actually sounds like a perfect prospect for the Patriots. He will likely go during the third day because of his character issues.
Final Pick
Baylor – While Illinois has an advantage defensively, Baylor has a quarterback who can single handily turn a game on its ear. I think given that kind of talent, Baylor should be the favorite going in.
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