Oklahoma State vs. Arizona
This game is going to come down to a strength vs. strength battle. Oklahoma State relies heavily on their offense, particularly the passing game to win games. Brandon Weeden has quickly adjusted to the wide spread scheme that offensive coordinator Dana Holgersen uses and put up great numbers in spite of it being his first year as a starter. Great deal of that comes from the fact that he has the most explosive player in college football, Justin Blackmon, playing receiver for him. Blackmon has great long speed and can explode out of routes to gain separation from college corners. Arizona is likely to roll coverage towards Blackmon, leaving opportunities for the other receivers in one-on-one coverage. The Arizona secondary needs to be able to tackle well in space, both on Blackmon and the other receivers. While none of the others have the kind of explosiveness that Blackmon has, Josh Cooper and Bo Bowling are good at working over the middle and keeping the chains moving. The Arizona secondary doesn’t have a great deal of depth so they’re going to rely on their pass rush to keep Weeden off-balance. Defensive Ends Brooks Reed and Rickey Elmore are great effort plays and should get good pressure on Weeden. Additionally, when Weeden is pressured or forced to move around in the pocket, he has a tendency to break down mechanically and force throws. To help slow the Arizona pass rush, Oklahoma State is going to need a big game from runningback Kendall Hunter. That could be a problem, because Arizona has been better defending the run against spread offenses than they have against pro sets.
On the flip side, Arizona’s offense likes to mix up what kind of formations they’re using by using both spread and pro styles looks. However, they have had trouble running the ball with any amount of consistency regardless of the formation they are running out of. Nic Grigsby has breakaway potential, but has been hampered by an ankle injury during the second half of the season. Keola Antolin has filled in admirably but doesn’t make a lot of defenders miss. Oklahoma State has gotten better at defending the run as the season has gone on, but if Arizona can mix their play calling up enough, they shouldn’t be able to move the ball on ground when it’s needed. The key for Arizona will be the play of quarterback Nick Foles. Foles has a good arm, is good a pre-snap reads and knows how to put just enough touch on the ball to drop it in of defenders. His favorite target is Juron Criner, a fast receiver with good hands. Criner gives Foles a deep option that allows him to distribute the ball to the other receivers evenly. Oklahoma State’s defense needs to pressure Foles into making mistakes. Their secondary has done a good job causing turnovers through the season, but it has also left them open to allowing big plays. If Foles can limit his mistakes, he should get a few opportunities to hit a big play.
Prospects to Watch
Oklahoma State
Kendall Hunter – Runningback: Hunter has been a very productive runningback out of spread system at Oklahoma State. However, much like other spread option runningbacks, he is undersized and relies more on speed than power to gain most of his yards. He doesn’t have great long speed or experience as a returner, so he won’t be given as much consideration as other smaller backs. But his skill set fits in well as a third down back. He’ll probably go on the last day of the draft (fourth to seventh round).
Arizona
Brooks Reed – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Reed is a classical effort over talent kind of player. He does have good but not great athleticism, which for an undersized defensive end, hurts his draft stock. However he shows great technique and a variety of pass rush moves, allolwing him to produce well. He does have good burst off the edge, which can give him an edge against slower tackles. He does get blown off the ball in the run game, but he uses his technique to still be a solid run defender. He will definitely get drafted, probably between the 3rd and 6th round.
Final Pick
Oklahoma State – While I really like Nick Foles and the Arizona defense, Oklahoma State has a lot of weapons and will pop more than just a few big plays for touchdowns. Arizona will have a hard time keeping pace.
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