Monday, December 27, 2010

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Preview

Air Force vs. Georgia Tech

                This is the showcase of the triple option. Both teams run either a variant of the triple option (Air Force) or the purest version (Georgia Tech) leaving a very old school taste in the mouth of most college fans. The people that benefit from this fact the most are the defensive coordinators for both teams. Since their defenses face the triple option in practice, both teams have experience in defensing it, though I would give Air Force the edge in that category, because they also play Navy who uses the same style of triple option that Georgia Tech uses.

                Air Force’s offense is in better condition than Georgia Tech’s, if for no other reason than they have a healthy and stable quarterback situation. Tim Jefferson is a good runner, solid decision maker within the triple option offense and an effective passer, though his passing ability will probably not been seen very much in this game. He and fullback Nathan Walker are great at drawing defenses away from splitback Asher Clark. Clark is the big play man in the Falcons offense, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He’s a bit more a scatback, relying on burst, elusiveness and speed to challenge defenses. However, he doesn’t have the type of strength to pound defenses inside, so Air Force has to be able to move the ball effectively up the middle with Walker and Jefferson. It’ll be a bit harder to do with regular fullback Jared Tew still suffering from a broken fibula, but Walker, while not as athletic, is a good enough runner in the middle to keep the Yellow Jackets defense on guard. It also helps that the Georgia Tech run defense is horrendous. The front seven of the defense have been bad at maintaining gap and control and getting leverage on opposing offensive lines. Even though they have a big size advantage against the Air Force offensive line, Air Force teaches their offensive line to attack the legs of bigger defenders and it will be hard Georgia Tech to simulate that in practice. Georgia Tech’s secondary is talented; however they won’t be given a lot of chances in the passing game. They need to be able to play disciplined on the edges and near the line in the middle. If not they will have a really long day. Air Force’s Special Teams have been very inconsistent, though kickoff returner Jonathan Warzeka is a threat to break off a big play at any time.

                Georgia Tech’s offense is in a somewhat worse position than the Air Force offense. With regular starter Joshua Nesbitt coming off of a broken arm and not having played for a month, he’ll be rusty and probably out of synch with his splitbacks. That’s dangerous when a good portion of your offense relies on the ball being pitched to the runners behind you. His back-up Tevin Washington is a good runner himself, but isn’t as skilled in the offense. FB Anthony Allen is there and will be a great help, but if the outside runs aren’t there, then there will be little he can do to overcome the deficit that the quarterback and split backs put him in. All of this must be done against a more experienced and more; prepared 3-4 defense, which has played well against offenses similar to the one that Georgia Tech uses. However, Georgia Tech does benefit from Air Force being short two contributors, as defensive end Zach Payne and defensive tackle Bradley Connor are going to miss this game with injuries. This gives Georgia Tech an advantage because Air force will need to rely on a smaller rotation of players to stop the ground game of the Yellow Jackets.

Prospects to Watch

                Air Force

                                Due to Military Commitments, no Air Force players are projected to be drafted this year.            

                Georgia Tech

                                Anthony Allen – Runningback: While his decision to transfer from Louisville is still curious, Allen has shown over the past two years that he is still a good runner. His talents may be a bit overblown by the rush heavy offense he plays in and the match-up problems it creates, but he shows a great deal of competitiveness and power in the way he runs. He may not be a threat to break off a huge run, but he can definitely get 5 or 6 yards at a time. Probably the thing that’s hurting his draft stock the most is the perceived lack of patience he has following blockers and his inexperience in the passing game. He does show a willingness to block, but his technique needs work, shifting from triple option to pro style offenses. He may get some play from teams looking for a backup runner in the 4th or 5th round.

Final Pick

                Air Force: In-spite of the injuries to their defense, I think Air Force is better prepared for the triple option. 

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