AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl Preview

Air Force vs. Georgia Tech

                This is the showcase of the triple option. Both teams run either a variant of the triple option (Air Force) or the purest version (Georgia Tech) leaving a very old school taste in the mouth of most college fans. The people that benefit from this fact the most are the defensive coordinators for both teams. Since their defenses face the triple option in practice, both teams have experience in defensing it, though I would give Air Force the edge in that category, because they also play Navy who uses the same style of triple option that Georgia Tech uses.

                Air Force’s offense is in better condition than Georgia Tech’s, if for no other reason than they have a healthy and stable quarterback situation. Tim Jefferson is a good runner, solid decision maker within the triple option offense and an effective passer, though his passing ability will probably not been seen very much in this game. He and fullback Nathan Walker are great at drawing defenses away from splitback Asher Clark. Clark is the big play man in the Falcons offense, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He’s a bit more a scatback, relying on burst, elusiveness and speed to challenge defenses. However, he doesn’t have the type of strength to pound defenses inside, so Air Force has to be able to move the ball effectively up the middle with Walker and Jefferson. It’ll be a bit harder to do with regular fullback Jared Tew still suffering from a broken fibula, but Walker, while not as athletic, is a good enough runner in the middle to keep the Yellow Jackets defense on guard. It also helps that the Georgia Tech run defense is horrendous. The front seven of the defense have been bad at maintaining gap and control and getting leverage on opposing offensive lines. Even though they have a big size advantage against the Air Force offensive line, Air Force teaches their offensive line to attack the legs of bigger defenders and it will be hard Georgia Tech to simulate that in practice. Georgia Tech’s secondary is talented; however they won’t be given a lot of chances in the passing game. They need to be able to play disciplined on the edges and near the line in the middle. If not they will have a really long day. Air Force’s Special Teams have been very inconsistent, though kickoff returner Jonathan Warzeka is a threat to break off a big play at any time.

                Georgia Tech’s offense is in a somewhat worse position than the Air Force offense. With regular starter Joshua Nesbitt coming off of a broken arm and not having played for a month, he’ll be rusty and probably out of synch with his splitbacks. That’s dangerous when a good portion of your offense relies on the ball being pitched to the runners behind you. His back-up Tevin Washington is a good runner himself, but isn’t as skilled in the offense. FB Anthony Allen is there and will be a great help, but if the outside runs aren’t there, then there will be little he can do to overcome the deficit that the quarterback and split backs put him in. All of this must be done against a more experienced and more; prepared 3-4 defense, which has played well against offenses similar to the one that Georgia Tech uses. However, Georgia Tech does benefit from Air Force being short two contributors, as defensive end Zach Payne and defensive tackle Bradley Connor are going to miss this game with injuries. This gives Georgia Tech an advantage because Air force will need to rely on a smaller rotation of players to stop the ground game of the Yellow Jackets.

Prospects to Watch

                Air Force

                                Due to Military Commitments, no Air Force players are projected to be drafted this year.            

                Georgia Tech

                                Anthony Allen – Runningback: While his decision to transfer from Louisville is still curious, Allen has shown over the past two years that he is still a good runner. His talents may be a bit overblown by the rush heavy offense he plays in and the match-up problems it creates, but he shows a great deal of competitiveness and power in the way he runs. He may not be a threat to break off a huge run, but he can definitely get 5 or 6 yards at a time. Probably the thing that’s hurting his draft stock the most is the perceived lack of patience he has following blockers and his inexperience in the passing game. He does show a willingness to block, but his technique needs work, shifting from triple option to pro style offenses. He may get some play from teams looking for a backup runner in the 4^th or 5^th round.

Final Pick

                Air Force: In-spite of the injuries to their defense, I think Air Force is better prepared for the triple option. 

Little Caesar's Bowl Preview

Florida International vs. Toledo

                This is all about Florida International’s first trip to a bowl game. While there are numerous match-ups that will determine the outcome of this game, all of that won’t matter if FIU’s players allow themselves to be overwhelmed by the new experience. They do benefit somewhat from facing a Toledo team that has no players that attended their last bowl game (2005) and from question marks at key positions in the Toledo offense.

                Florida International has a strong rushing game, in-spite of not having a dominating runningback. They lost starting runningback Jeremiah Harden to a toe injury part way through the season and began to rely on a committee approach with Darriet Perry and Darrian Mallary. That approach worked very well, helping Florida International rank 28^th in the country in rushing offense. They’re going to have a tough battle against the stingy Toledo run defense, which features a pair of extremely active linebackers in Dan Molls and Archie Donald. If the FIU offensive line can’t keep those two off of their runnningbacks, they are going to have a tough time running the ball and keeping their offense relatively balanced. To that end, the passing offense is going to have to take advantage of the Toledo secondary, which is prone to being caught out of position. Quarterback Wesley Carroll will have to cut down on the number of passes he tries to force into coverage, which has led to his 13 interceptions, especially considering the 19 interceptions that the Toledo pass defense has secured this season. However he also does a good job spreading the ball around and keeping the electrifying T.Y. Hilton in the game. Hilton is the guy Toledo must watch, in every facet of the game. He is an explosive and dangerous receiver, runner and returner. He should be able to force the Toledo defensive backs to stay back and give the Panthers a big play threat on returns.

                Toledo hasn’t slouched on special team either, in-spite of having to shuffle place kickers for most of the season. Returner/Receiver Eric Page ranks fourth in the nation in kick return average and has returned three kicks for touchdowns this season, making for an interesting battle between the special teams. Page also ranks fifth nationally in receptions, taking advantage of his quickness and speed to gain the majority of his yards. The FIU secondary has to do a good job tackling Page, or else he is going to burn them after each catch. The passing game is aided by runningbacks Adonis Thomas and Morgan Williams’ ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and keep coverage near the middle, a key in the short outside passing game that Toledo offense emphasizes. Also, wide receiver Kenny Stafford uses his size (6-4) to present match-up problems to an opposing secondary. However all of this depends heavily on which quarterback is playing. The regular starter Austin Dantin is well versed in the Toledo offense, but he missed the final three games of the season with a partially separated shoulder. He is expected to be able to play in this game; however one has to question how good he is going to be come off that injury. While his backup Terrance Owens did lead the Rockets to two victories as a starter, he is far from the best passer and can easily get confused by shifting coverages. FIU does a very good job mixing their coverages from one high safety to two high safeties and, against a young quarterback who has a hard time reading coverage that is a great asset. Should Owens play the majority of the game, Toledo will need to rely heavily on their running game. They probably should lean on that either way, because FIU has a hard time defending the run with undersized and undisciplined defensive tackles Andre Pound and Joshua Forney. Both can be driven off the ball and both struggle to maintain gap control, which will allow the more disciplined Toledo offensive line to drive them off the ball. However their pass protection skills will be put to the tests as these quick tackles and defensive end Tourek Williams will be able to take advantage of any gaps or seams that are left in the pocket. The team’s leader in rushing yards, Adonis Thomas has shown a good ability to work within the offense and should be effective if the offensive line plays well.

Prospects to Watch

                Florida International

                                T.Y. Hilton – Wide Receiver: Much like fellow Sun Belt receiver Jerrel Jernigan, Hilton is an explosive and multi-talented receiver. He has great suddenness and long speed, to go with a good set of hands. When you add all of this to his experience and ability as a returner, you have an attractive draft prospect, should he choose to come out. If he does, he has a chance to be drafted between the 3^rd and 6^th round.

                Toledo

                                Kevin Kowalski – Offensive Center: A strong and tough leader in the middle, Kowalaksi lacks the kind of athleticism that many would look for in a center. That being said, he is more than willing to engage and play tough against big defensive tackles. He can find a home somewhere between the 5^th round and the end of the draft.

Final Pick

                Toledo – While I admit the fact that Dantin’s ability to play will have an effect on this pick, I still think that the bright lights of the big stage will overwhelm the FIU Panthers. 

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Preview

Hawaii vs. Tulsa

                While most of these bowl games are about match-ups, this one is more about the numerous mismatches that this game highlights. On the one hand, you have the powerful Hawaii passing game facing the porous pass defense of Tulsa. On the other hand, you have the versatility of the Tulsa offense and the excellence of their special teams against the mediocre defense and downright weak special teams of Hawaii.

                After two down years following Junes Jones’ decision to leave for SMU, Hawaii is back in a bowl game and it doesn’t look like they’ve changed that much. Their offense still features a spread offense that takes advantage of match-ups and is difficult to contain. The only real difference between the great Hawaii team that made it all the way to the Sugar Bowl and this team is that this team has a strong running game. Don’t be fooled by the 106^th ranking, Hawaii rushers averaged 5 yards a carry over the course of the year, led by Alex Greene. On 133 carries, Green averaged 8.8 yards a carry and scored 17 touchdowns. He kept defenses from dropping six, seven or eight into coverage. That allowed Bryant Moniz, Greg Salas, Kealoha Pilares, Royce Pollard and Rodney Bradley to run rough shot over opposing defenses. Salas and Pilares are the keys to this passing offense, even though they are both slot receivers. When they’re not breaking down underneath coverages; Pollard and Bradley are stretching the field vertically and keeping defenses on their toes. Against the Tulsa pass defense, the matchup problems that the Hawaii offense brings with them will just overmatch the young and raw Tulsa defense. The only way Tulsa will be able to slow down the passing game is if they can get a good pass rush on blitzes, because the Hawaii offensive line has struggled with pass protection at times.

                On the flip side, Tulsa uses a similar spread offense, but also uses a lot of gadget plays. Quarterback G.J. Kinne has a lot of experience in the Tulsa system and knows how to carry out play fakes, read defenses and zip ball into underneath receivers with little concern. He can occasional sail the ball on deep passes, but otherwise he is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and should be able to dissect the Hawaii secondary. He has the benefit of a great receiver in Damaris Johnson and a versatile fullback in Charles Clay. Both provide a rushing and receiving threat as gadget plays are used to find matchup problems against the defense. Also, Kinne is an effective runner, knowing when to break into the open. The biggest issue that the Tulsa offense is going to face against this Hawaii defense is the play of the veteran secondary. Hawaii leads the nation with 23 interceptions and will take full advantage of any miscues in the Tulsa offense. However, with Tulsa’s love of trick plays, the Hawaii defense will also have to be patient and disciplined to avoid getting caught out of position. This could limit the Hawaii defensive backs, notably Mana Silva, in how aggressive they can be in coverage.

                It’s also a huge difference in terms of talent on special teams. While Hawaii has a good placekicker, their return game is almost non-existent and their punting game is nothing special, certainly not enough to overcome the great special teams of Tulsa. Punter Michael Michael Such ranks third in punt average and returner Damaris Johnson is the all-time leader in kick return average. The field position provided by these two could be more than enough to overcome the advantage that Hawaii’s offense has over the  Tulsa defense.

Prospects to Watch

                Hawaii

                                Greg Salas – Wide Receiver: While Salas’ excellent production may be over blown by the wide-open offense, in which he plays; his skills are far from over-blown. Salas knows how to do the subtle things to beat coverage. He also has excellent ball skills and the toughness to play over the middle. He doesn’t have a ton of explosiveness coming out of his breaks, but he definitely has the long speed to win foot races against most defenders. He does need to work on dealing with psychical receivers, but that kind of technique will come with NFL coaching.  Salas will make great slot receiver for a team that drafts him any time during or after the third round.

                Tulsa

                                Charles Clay – Fullback/Tight End: Remember Brian Leonard? That great versatile fullback from Rutgers who is now a solid third-down back with the Bengals? That’s who Charles Clay reminds me of. He doesn’t have kind of athleticism or power to survive as a runningback or traditional fullback in the NFL. However he does well enough in all areas to succeed with some coaching. His best assets are his ability to run tough in short yardage situations and wiggle free on short passes. He should be considered in the 4^th round or later.

Final Pick

                                Hawaii – Tulsa faces a lot of teams that use a spread offense similar to Hawaii’s, including SMU led by June Jones (the former Hawaii coach). Those have been the closest games on their schedule and accounts for all of their losses. I think that this game will mimic those losses, including leaving Tulsa on the short end. 

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Navy vs. San Diego State  

                Ahhh, time for my favorite bowl game. I know there aren’t a lot of big names that come to this game, but many teams that are tremendously underrated end up here. The case is the same here; both Navy and San Diego State are tremendously underrated teams. When you add that to their contrasting styles of offense, then you have a great match-up to watch.

                Navy’s offense, a triple option, is extremely dangerous, both from the run and the pass. Quarterback Ricky Dobbs is one of the best triple options quarterbacks to play in college football. Not only is he an elusive and dangerous open field runner, but he is also an efficient passer with a powerful arm. He may never be dangerous in a spread offense, but he can keep defenses from stacking in the box. He’s aided by fullback Alexander Teich and split backs Gee Gee Greene and Aaron Santiago, all of whom are very efficient at their jobs. Any one of them can have a big day if Dobbs gets bogged down. The undersized line and strong blocking receivers also keep this offense chugging. However they aren’t going against ant slouches defensively, San Diego State played Air Force, another team that uses the triple option very well by keeping some of their DBs near the line of scrimmage and playing very disciplined defense. If San Diego State can do that again, then they have a pretty good shot of winning.

                San Diego State’s offense is multi-dimensional, even if they use a spread option all the time. While Ryan Lindley and the passing offense are dangerous on the perimeter, Ronnie Hillman is a good runner and has kept defenses from ignoring the run most of the season. He is athletic enough to take advantage of even the smallest holes provide by the offensive line. It also helps that Navy’s defense is undersized up front. Also the Navy pass rush isn’t that good, leaving Lindely with plenty of time to survey the field from the pocket. Navy is going to need their athletic linebackers to step up, keep pace and play sound defensive football if they want to hold down the San Diego State offense.

Prospects to Watch

                Navy

                                Due to Military Commitments, no Navy players are projected to be drafted this year.

                San Diego State

                                Vincent Brown – Wide Receiver: while he doesn’t impress with his tangibles (Height –Weight-Speed), he’s shown himself to be a hard worker, with enough talent to be a solid receiver. He has solid hands, good speed and enough experience to find ways to get open in spite of his lack of natural speed. He also has a tremendous feel for the tempo of a route. He knows how to time his cuts and breaks so that he’ll be open when the Quarterback is looking for him. I think this is his best asset and can help him find a place on a west-coast style offense, somewhere in the 4^th or 5^th round.

Final Pick

                San Diego State – As much as I like Navy, their defense is a bit overmatched and time has shown me that the triple option can be stopped when given enough time to prep for it. 

NFL Week 12 Picks

I ran my record to 11-5 last week and picked the Thursday game correctly (see college football preview for this week: http://fbscouts.blogspot.com/2010/12/college-football-week-13-preview.html ), bringing my overall to 106-71.  As we come down the home stretch, the games increase in importance and become a lot more difficult to predict.  Let's see how this week goes. 

                NO vs. CIN 

                                 Cincinnati just can’t get themselves together. For every good play they make, a stupid mistake accompanies it and a number of bad plays are likely to follow. You can’t play that way and expect to beat the New Orleans Saints.

               

                CHI vs. DET

               

                                 While Detroit has been playing well, they just haven’t sealed the deal in a lot of games. That’s likely to be their downfall in this game as well. It doesn’t help that Drew Stanton is starting against one of the better defenses in the NFL. Chicago should win.

                SF vs. GB

                                I would say that San Francisco was building momentum for a playoff run, however their most consistent offensive player, Frank Gore, is out for the season. Without Gore, I don’t think they’ll be able to build enough momentum to overcome the rams or the Seahawks. The same theory applies here. Green Bay wins.  

                DEN vs. KC

                                 As odd and oxymoronic as this sounds, Denver has been very consistent in their inconsistency. While they have had varying performances offensively and defensively, that have almost always found ways to blow their games and just prove that they are in need of serious rebuilding following the blunders that Josh McDaniels and Brian Xanders try to pass off as good trades. The one thing you know about the Broncos is that they are going to throw the ball well, and do very little else as the Chiefs shove Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones down their throats. Chiefs win.

                CLE vs. MIA

                                 Cleveland has found their grove and has a nice set of young players to build around. However, one of those key young players, Colt McCoy is not likely to start in this game, giving way to Jake Delhomme to make his third start of the season. For whatever Delhomme was in his prime in Carolina, he is far from a great option to have a quarterback right now. While the Browns will focus their offense around Peyton Hillis, Miami’s defense will be able to take advantage of Delhomme and pull out the win.

                BUF vs. MIN

                                This is possibly the hardest game to pick this week.  Both teams are incredibly unpredictable. While I want to say that Buffalo will outplay Minnesota, the Vikings played well last week and Buffalo has blown a lot of game they should have won. Ultimately I have to give this to the Vikings, just because I can’t trust the Bills not to blow it, at least not with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback at this point. 

                WAS vs. NYG

                                 The Giants seemed to find their way back on track in the second half of last weeks’ game against the Jags and will look to continue that momentum against the Redskins. It’s better to throw everything you know about these teams out the door in a game like this; that’s how intense the rivalry is between these teams. However you can only make a prediction based on what you know, and based on that, I give the win to the Giants.

                JAC vs. TEN

                                 Even if Kerry Collins starts this game, he’s not dynamic enough of a player to pull the pressure off of Chris Johnson. Jacksonville wins.

                OAK vs. SD 

                                Over the past couple of weeks, these two teams have been headed in very different directions. Whatever Oakland was doing that helped them win three in a row before their bye week certainly seems to have disappeared in their last two games. San Diego has gotten hot in recent weeks and should be able to contain Darren McFadden and the Raiders rushing game. The Chargers win.

                                  

             

                STL vs. ARI

                                 The utter meltdown that Arizona experienced during Monday Night Football was indicative of their entire season. Their offense just can’t get out of their own way, and even when it does, it’s usually too late for them to dig out of the hole they put themselves in. St. Louis should win this game handily.

                DAL vs. IND

                                 Dallas seems to have found their grove under Jason Garrett while Indianapolis has struggled the past few weeks, suffering from a plague of injuries that has ravaged their team. While I think the Colts have a good chance of winning, since the Dallas defense isn’t as good as some of the other defenses Indianapolis has faced, I’m giving this one to Dallas because they’re the hotter team.

                CAR vs. SEA

                                 The Carolina Panthers are desperate for a win, or for this season to end. I think the latter is more likely to happen first. Seattle wins.

                ATL vs. TB

                                 In spite of how well Tampa Bay has been playing this season, they just don’t have the ability to compete with the Falcons the way the Falcons are playing right now. I gotta give it to the Falcons.

                PIT vs. BAL *Game of the Week*

                                 This game should be very interesting to watch, as it almost always is. These two teams are so similar, you could also flip-flop any player on either roster and get the same results. Admittedly, Big Ben’s a bit more dynamic a play maker than Joe Flacco, but the Ravens have more established wide receivers than the Steelers. The key though, is going to be the play of runnningbacks Reshard Mendenhall and Ray Rice. Whichever player is able to fight through the staunch defense of their opponent and provide support in the passing game; that will be the team that wins this game. Basing my pick on that, I have to give this win to the Ravens. Ray Rice is threat both in the running and passing game and benefits from having good receivers to draw pressure away from him.

                NYJ vs. NE

                                 Most people would probably have given this game of the week status. I am not most people however. The truth is that the Patriots have a horrible pass defense (last in the NFL in fact) and I doubt that the Jets aren’t prepared to exploit that. Even though the Patriots have the best scoring offense in the NFL, you can’t expect to get into a shootout with that Jets defense which is still great in spite of the many close games they’ve played in recently. I‘m giving this to the Jets based on that difference in defensive talent.