San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Navy vs. San Diego State  

                Ahhh, time for my favorite bowl game. I know there aren’t a lot of big names that come to this game, but many teams that are tremendously underrated end up here. The case is the same here; both Navy and San Diego State are tremendously underrated teams. When you add that to their contrasting styles of offense, then you have a great match-up to watch.

                Navy’s offense, a triple option, is extremely dangerous, both from the run and the pass. Quarterback Ricky Dobbs is one of the best triple options quarterbacks to play in college football. Not only is he an elusive and dangerous open field runner, but he is also an efficient passer with a powerful arm. He may never be dangerous in a spread offense, but he can keep defenses from stacking in the box. He’s aided by fullback Alexander Teich and split backs Gee Gee Greene and Aaron Santiago, all of whom are very efficient at their jobs. Any one of them can have a big day if Dobbs gets bogged down. The undersized line and strong blocking receivers also keep this offense chugging. However they aren’t going against ant slouches defensively, San Diego State played Air Force, another team that uses the triple option very well by keeping some of their DBs near the line of scrimmage and playing very disciplined defense. If San Diego State can do that again, then they have a pretty good shot of winning.

                San Diego State’s offense is multi-dimensional, even if they use a spread option all the time. While Ryan Lindley and the passing offense are dangerous on the perimeter, Ronnie Hillman is a good runner and has kept defenses from ignoring the run most of the season. He is athletic enough to take advantage of even the smallest holes provide by the offensive line. It also helps that Navy’s defense is undersized up front. Also the Navy pass rush isn’t that good, leaving Lindely with plenty of time to survey the field from the pocket. Navy is going to need their athletic linebackers to step up, keep pace and play sound defensive football if they want to hold down the San Diego State offense.

Prospects to Watch

                Navy

                                Due to Military Commitments, no Navy players are projected to be drafted this year.

                San Diego State

                                Vincent Brown – Wide Receiver: while he doesn’t impress with his tangibles (Height –Weight-Speed), he’s shown himself to be a hard worker, with enough talent to be a solid receiver. He has solid hands, good speed and enough experience to find ways to get open in spite of his lack of natural speed. He also has a tremendous feel for the tempo of a route. He knows how to time his cuts and breaks so that he’ll be open when the Quarterback is looking for him. I think this is his best asset and can help him find a place on a west-coast style offense, somewhere in the 4^th or 5^th round.

Final Pick

                San Diego State – As much as I like Navy, their defense is a bit overmatched and time has shown me that the triple option can be stopped when given enough time to prep for it. 

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl Preview

Utah vs. Boise State

                I guess Vegas is where the best teams in the country that no one wants to acknowledge get to play. Utah is better than several teams in BCS bowls games and Boise State is still the best team in the country, in-spite of their loss to Nevada. This game should be very interesting to watch. It certainly won’t be much of a quarterback battle if history is any indication. While Kellen Moore is the single best quarterback in the country, Terrence Cain is getting the start solely because of an injury to the regular starting quarterback Jordan Wynn. This can both help and hurt the Utah offense. On one hand, Cain is tremendously athletic and could bring a different dimension to the rushing offense. On the other hand, Cain is not a great passer, especially in the intermediate routes. He does have the arm strength to challenge the secondary deep, which can be helped by the solid play of wide receivers DeVonte Christopher, Jerome Brooks, Shaky Smithson and Luke Matthews. However, Utah cannot become a pass first team in this game. Boise State is simply too good at pressuring the quarterback and handling man-on-man coverage for Cain to beat them with his arm. They need to rely on their rushing game, particularly the power rushing of Matt Asiata. While Eddie Wide brings a lot of explosiveness to the rushing game, Boise State’s defense has the athleticism to match those sweep plays that Wide excels at. The best way for Utah to keep up offensively, is to just let Zane Taylor, Caleb Schlauderaff and the rest of the offensive line drive the Boise defenders off the ball and be methodical with their play calling.

                Boise State on the other hand has a tremendous advantage with their offense, not just because they have the best quarterback in college football (Kellen Moore) and one of the best offensively innovative minds (Chris Peterson) stalking the sidelines, but because they make sure their offense is completely balanced. They excel at both rushing the ball and passing it, allowing them to adapt to whatever the opposing defenses puts in front of them. In this game, the Broncos don’t need to dominate on the ground, they just need Doug Martin and Jeremy Avery to keep Utah’s defense off balance. Utah’s pass defense has been porous in the red zone and, in spite of the efforts of talented cornerback Brandon Burton, have given up 18 passing touchdowns (only 5 rushing touchdowns were scored against them this season). While average teams may only be able to exploit that defense in the red zone, Kellen Moore should be able to pick apart the holes in that defense and take advantage of every possible matchup. It helps that he has two very good wide receivers in Austin Pettis and Titus Young. Pettis has great size and is a precise route runner while Young is a speed demon. Don’t be surprised if you see wide receiver Tyler Showmaker or tight end Kyle Efaw have big games either. There are only so many defensive backs Utah can get on the field at any time, leaving an opening somewhere in that defense. Kellen Moore is the kind of quarterback who can take advantage of that. Also, don’t underestimate his ability to step into the pocket and move to avoid sacks. I think the pass rush of Utah will be neutralized by that savvy.

                The special teams match-up is also going to be interesting to watch. Both teams have a dynamic returner and a strong placekicker. Titus Young, who I mentioned earlier also returns punts and kickoffs for the Broncos and can be dangerous if given a hole or two. However the bigger issue is Shaky Smithson, the Utah returner, leads the nation in punt return average (19.7 YPR) and Boise State has had issues covering kicks and punts. If Utah has Smithson back returning kicks as well as punts, they may not have to concern themselves with keeping up offensively. Also, when you consider the very public failures Boise state Kicker Kyle Brotzman experienced during the Nevada game, it’s easy to assume that he may have some issues keeping his cool in this spotlight.

Prospects to Watch

                Utah

                                Zane Taylor – Offensive Center/Guard: Taylor is an experienced and intelligent center. He shows great toughness and awareness pre-snap. However he lacks ideal bulk and shows some inconsistencies with his technique. Strengthening up before the combine could help his cause, but as it stands he could fit in well with a team that runs a zone-blocking style run offense. He could go in the later rounds.

                Boise State

                                Titus Young – Wide Receiver: While Young is not as precise a route runner as his teammate Austin Pettis, he has the speed to draw interest from numerous teams. He also has experience as a returner, which is in high demand these days. I’d expect to see him come off the board between the 3^rd and 6^th rounds, depending how he tests during the combine.

Final Pick

                Boise State – All the signs indicate that Boise State remains the superior team. While I know Utah can pull the big upset, it’s difficult to see them pulling a major upset in this game. 

NFL Week 12 Picks

I ran my record to 11-5 last week and picked the Thursday game correctly (see college football preview for this week: http://fbscouts.blogspot.com/2010/12/college-football-week-13-preview.html ), bringing my overall to 106-71.  As we come down the home stretch, the games increase in importance and become a lot more difficult to predict.  Let's see how this week goes. 

                NO vs. CIN 

                                 Cincinnati just can’t get themselves together. For every good play they make, a stupid mistake accompanies it and a number of bad plays are likely to follow. You can’t play that way and expect to beat the New Orleans Saints.

               

                CHI vs. DET

               

                                 While Detroit has been playing well, they just haven’t sealed the deal in a lot of games. That’s likely to be their downfall in this game as well. It doesn’t help that Drew Stanton is starting against one of the better defenses in the NFL. Chicago should win.

                SF vs. GB

                                I would say that San Francisco was building momentum for a playoff run, however their most consistent offensive player, Frank Gore, is out for the season. Without Gore, I don’t think they’ll be able to build enough momentum to overcome the rams or the Seahawks. The same theory applies here. Green Bay wins.  

                DEN vs. KC

                                 As odd and oxymoronic as this sounds, Denver has been very consistent in their inconsistency. While they have had varying performances offensively and defensively, that have almost always found ways to blow their games and just prove that they are in need of serious rebuilding following the blunders that Josh McDaniels and Brian Xanders try to pass off as good trades. The one thing you know about the Broncos is that they are going to throw the ball well, and do very little else as the Chiefs shove Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones down their throats. Chiefs win.

                CLE vs. MIA

                                 Cleveland has found their grove and has a nice set of young players to build around. However, one of those key young players, Colt McCoy is not likely to start in this game, giving way to Jake Delhomme to make his third start of the season. For whatever Delhomme was in his prime in Carolina, he is far from a great option to have a quarterback right now. While the Browns will focus their offense around Peyton Hillis, Miami’s defense will be able to take advantage of Delhomme and pull out the win.

                BUF vs. MIN

                                This is possibly the hardest game to pick this week.  Both teams are incredibly unpredictable. While I want to say that Buffalo will outplay Minnesota, the Vikings played well last week and Buffalo has blown a lot of game they should have won. Ultimately I have to give this to the Vikings, just because I can’t trust the Bills not to blow it, at least not with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback at this point. 

                WAS vs. NYG

                                 The Giants seemed to find their way back on track in the second half of last weeks’ game against the Jags and will look to continue that momentum against the Redskins. It’s better to throw everything you know about these teams out the door in a game like this; that’s how intense the rivalry is between these teams. However you can only make a prediction based on what you know, and based on that, I give the win to the Giants.

                JAC vs. TEN

                                 Even if Kerry Collins starts this game, he’s not dynamic enough of a player to pull the pressure off of Chris Johnson. Jacksonville wins.

                OAK vs. SD 

                                Over the past couple of weeks, these two teams have been headed in very different directions. Whatever Oakland was doing that helped them win three in a row before their bye week certainly seems to have disappeared in their last two games. San Diego has gotten hot in recent weeks and should be able to contain Darren McFadden and the Raiders rushing game. The Chargers win.

                                  

             

                STL vs. ARI

                                 The utter meltdown that Arizona experienced during Monday Night Football was indicative of their entire season. Their offense just can’t get out of their own way, and even when it does, it’s usually too late for them to dig out of the hole they put themselves in. St. Louis should win this game handily.

                DAL vs. IND

                                 Dallas seems to have found their grove under Jason Garrett while Indianapolis has struggled the past few weeks, suffering from a plague of injuries that has ravaged their team. While I think the Colts have a good chance of winning, since the Dallas defense isn’t as good as some of the other defenses Indianapolis has faced, I’m giving this one to Dallas because they’re the hotter team.

                CAR vs. SEA

                                 The Carolina Panthers are desperate for a win, or for this season to end. I think the latter is more likely to happen first. Seattle wins.

                ATL vs. TB

                                 In spite of how well Tampa Bay has been playing this season, they just don’t have the ability to compete with the Falcons the way the Falcons are playing right now. I gotta give it to the Falcons.

                PIT vs. BAL *Game of the Week*

                                 This game should be very interesting to watch, as it almost always is. These two teams are so similar, you could also flip-flop any player on either roster and get the same results. Admittedly, Big Ben’s a bit more dynamic a play maker than Joe Flacco, but the Ravens have more established wide receivers than the Steelers. The key though, is going to be the play of runnningbacks Reshard Mendenhall and Ray Rice. Whichever player is able to fight through the staunch defense of their opponent and provide support in the passing game; that will be the team that wins this game. Basing my pick on that, I have to give this win to the Ravens. Ray Rice is threat both in the running and passing game and benefits from having good receivers to draw pressure away from him.

                NYJ vs. NE

                                 Most people would probably have given this game of the week status. I am not most people however. The truth is that the Patriots have a horrible pass defense (last in the NFL in fact) and I doubt that the Jets aren’t prepared to exploit that. Even though the Patriots have the best scoring offense in the NFL, you can’t expect to get into a shootout with that Jets defense which is still great in spite of the many close games they’ve played in recently. I‘m giving this to the Jets based on that difference in defensive talent.