Champs Sports Bowl
West Virginia vs. North Carolina State
This game is all about which team does a better job defending the pass. Neither team has done a particularly good job running the ball and both teams are great at defending the run. West Virginia is actually number two in the country in run defense and NC State excels at catching rushers behind the line of scrimmage. However, NC State hasn’t had a 100-yard rusher all season and only seems to turn to the running game if they need to kill the clock. If the running game plays any role in this game, it will favor West Virginia. Their tendency to play close to the line of scrimmage and run blitz has been what keeps their run defense so strong. Also, Noel Devine is the kind of runningback who can break the big play if he is given a crease. However he has been slowed by two and ankle injuries all season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the multi-talented Russell Wilson or Geno Smith leading their respective team in rushing.
The passing games featured by these two teams are dangerous but also couldn’t feel more different. West Virginia likes to get their wide receivers into space by using quick passes, while NC State uses more traditional route trees and has the receivers who are big play threats on the outside. NC State’s defense needs to tackle well in space and keep an eye towards Tavon Austin. Austin is the big play threat on the West Virginia offense, though he is still rather undersized. It doesn’t help that NC State’s secondary has been giving up a number of big plays late in the season. Look for West Virginia to target CJ Wilson, who is the weakness in the Wolfpack secondary. NC State on the other hand is going to need their offensive line, which has been in consistent this season, to step up and stop the pass rush of the Mountaineers. West Virginia racked up 40 sacks this season after having none in their first two games. They also blitz a lot, a staple of the 3-3-5 defense that they run, however the Wolfpack can use that to their advantage, setting up screens and quick passes that develop where the blitzing players just left. Also, Russell Wilson athleticism will help keep the Mountaineers defense at bay. The only question will be whether wide receivers Jarvis Williams and Owen Spender can beat corners Brandon Hogan and Keith Tandy in one-on-one coverage. If not, NC State will have a hard time stretching the field enough to take advantage of the play of tight ends, T.J. Graham and George Bryan.
With the Special Teams of both teams being less than impressive to outright bad, it’s doubtful that it will play a major role in this game. I wouldn’t doubt that West Virginia is coming into this game a little less focused than NC State. They were so close to a BCS Bowl game and their head coach Bill Stewart has already been announced as a lame duck coach for next season. That kind of distraction is not something that can be easily ignored.
Prospects to Watch
West Virginia
Noel Devine – Runningback: While Devine has had down year this year; he still will draw considerable interest during the draft. Much like his predecessor, Steve Slaton, his is an undersized speed demon that will be looked at primarily as a third down back. He does not have the experience (and perhaps, not the long speed) to be counted on as a returner. He has shown during his collegiate career that he has good patience, pass blocking technique and pass-catching abilities. However he has also shown that he is no threat to punish opponents in the middle nor can he break a lot of tackles before being brought down. His mindset off-the-field will also be a concern given how rough his life has been. Added to his size (less than 5’8”) he may have a hard time getting drafted in the first two days. But he is likely to come off the board in the third day (rounds 4-7) unless he completely blows his 40 time.
North Carolina State
Nate Irving – Linebacker: While he is a touch shorter than is ideal for an interior linebacker and his judgment will come into question following his involvement in a car accident that cost him the entire 2009 season, Irving still has enough skills and upside to get a good deal of attention in the upcoming draft. He has shown great awareness and toughness in the run game and good ability to drop into coverage in the passing game. Perhaps his best asset is his willingness to take on blockers and be disruptive. That being said, he also has inconsistent tackling technique and somewhat limited athleticism. Since physical gifts are often more valued by NFL teams than leadership and experience, this will drop him from being a potential 2nd or 3rd round pick to a 4th or 5th rounder.
Final Pick
NC State – In addition to the issue regarding their head coach, West Virginia is counting on a lot on 1-on-1 coverage against big and speedy receivers. It also helps that I’ve seen NC State in big games and they know how to prep for games like this one.
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