North Carolina vs. Tennessee
These are two incredibly similar teams. Both teams have succeeded in passing the ball and playing solid defense. This game may make it harder for either team to find success through the air, so they need to be able to balance that passing with an effective ground game. North Carolina is more likely to succeed on that count, with Anthony Elzy (the starter for this game with Johnny White and Shaun Draughn both down with injuries) being able to compete against Tennessee linebackers. Elzy is a patient, tough runner who won’t simply go down on first contact. Even if he doesn’t gain a lot of yards playing this way, he can take some of the pressure off of quarterback T.J. Yates. Yates is a very good passer, especially down field where he has weapons like Dwight Jones. Jones is a big receiver with more than enough speed to get behind a secondary and threaten the end zone on almost every play. He should draw at least a double team every time he goes long, allowing fellow receiver Josh Adams and Erik Highsmith, tight end Ed Barham and Elzy have relatively free reign in the underneath routes. The best way for Tennessee to counter this North Carolina offense is to blitz, a lot. UNC’s offensive line has had a hard time picking up the blitz and knocking Yates off his rhythm can create opportunities for safety Janzen Jackson and corner Prentiss Waggner to build on their combined nine interceptions. However, blitzing will also leave Jones and company in a lot of single coverage, which will be very dangerous to do if the rush is not getting to Yates.
Tennessee will have a harder time on in both aspects of offense, because they are led by true freshman Tyler Bray. While I have nothing against true freshman starting at quarterback, a talented and athletic defense like the one North Carolina has can easily confuse him and get turnovers from him. The only real advantage the Tennessee 0passing game will have over the UNC secondary is the fact that wide receiver Gerald Jones and Denarius Moore are both big and should be able to box out the smaller North Carolina corners. Also, tight end Luke Stocker is a good option down the seam and in the red zone, but the linebackers for the Tar Heels are very fast and should be able to keep up with him in man-to-man coverage. Runningback Tauren Poole is a good downhill runner with good acceleration, but he requires a seam to be very effective. Against the UNC defensive line, even depleted as it is, that could be a problem. Defensive Tackle Quinton Coples is fast and active, drawing at least two blockers to him on most plays. Without these extra linemen moving to the second level, Poole is going to have a hard time getting away from linebackers Quan Sturdivant, Kevin Reddick and Zach Brown. Tennessee’s offensive line needs to be in top form if they want to move the ball with any amount of consistency against the Tar Heels defense.
Prospects to Watch
North Carolina
Quan Sturdivant – Linebacker: Much like most of the talented players on the Tar Heels, Sturdivant has had off-the-field issues this year that bring his judgment into question. That’ll hurt him come draft day; however it won’t be enough to slide him past the 3rd round. His great athletic talent and sound tackling technique are extremely attractive to most teams. Sturdivant is more of an athlete than a sound technique linebacker, which is concerning. However talent gets a guy like Sturdivent farther in the draft process than experience or sound play. He’s likely to go in the first two rounds.
Tennessee
Luke Stocker – Tight End: Stoker brings a good combination of speed and toughness to the position. He has soft hands; good enough speed to stretch the seam and is a willing blocker. He’s a bit of a throwback to tight ends that could block as well as make plays in the receiving game. However he has less than great athleticism and that is going to hurt his draft stock. He can be a number one on teams that don’t use a lot of spread formations, or a good blocking tight end on other teams. Look for him to get drafted between the 3rd and 5th round.
Final Pick
North Carolina – A vetern defense playing against a true freshman quarterback. Is it really a wonder I went with this pick?
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