Insight Bowl Preview

Missouri vs. Iowa

                It’s rare that a game comes down to being as one-sided as this one is. The entire game comes down to how well the Missouri offense plays against the Iowa defense. While the Iowa offense has been effective offensively through most of the year, they have fallen off late in the season in all aspects of the offense. In addition, the Hawkeyes lost lead rusher Adam Robinson and second leading receiver (and dynamic kick returner) Derrell Johnson-Koulianos to suspensions. This leaves Ricky Stanzi’s best receiver Marvin McNutt alone to deal with the majority of the Missouri coverage. Stanzi has to be able to spread the ball out and make some plays himself if he wants to keep Iowa in the game. It’s going to be difficult against a Missouri defense that racked up 38 sacks and 18 interceptions. Iowa is going to need to be creative offensively if they want to stay in this game.

                That’s why this game mostly comes down to the play of the Missouri offensive line against the Iowa defensive line. Missouri’s offense goes entirely through quarterback Blaine Gabbert, whether it’s running or passing the ball. Missouri doesn’t have any major running threat past Gabbert, who is deceptively good at running the ball. The spread type offense that Missouri runs gives him a big hand as the spread formation spread the defense enough for him to have running room. However when he is spending half of his time running the ball, he losses focus of the opposing pass defense. When Missouri decides to focus on the passing offense, Gabbert excels at the short and intermediate range passing with a plethora of receivers. Jerrel Jackson, T.J. Moe, Wes Kemp and tight end Michael Egnew are talented and experienced within the offense. Egnew is especially dangerous, much like Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman before him; he is a great pass-catching tight end who can split wide to create match-up problems with his size. He is also the Tigers leading receiver. They aren’t going to have an easy time facing the strong defense of the Iowa Hawkeyes. The secondary is strong with corner Shaun Prater and safeties Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood helping Iowa pick off 17 passes on the season. They’re good enough to hold the best receivers down until the pass rush gets to Gabbert. That is going to be the key. If Missouri allows Iowa to pressure Gabbert with their front four, then it allows Iowa to just drop seven in coverage and shut down passing lanes. It’ll be hard for the more undersized Missouri offensive line to keep the talented group of Adrian Clayborn, Karl Klug, Christian Ballard, Mike Daniels and Broderick Binns from pressuring Gabbert, but if they can it gives Missouri an advantage against the Iowa defense. It’ll be interesting to watch.

Prospects to Watch

                Missouri

                                Tim Barnes – Offensive Center/Guard: Barnes is an experienced, instinctual center who shows great smarts working in a wide open offense. He shows great technique and athleticism moving from the line to linebackers. However he also has short arms and not enough strength to deal with bigger defensive lineman. That fact might get him moved to guard in the NFL. Teams that run a zone-blocking offense will give him chance in the last three rounds of the draft.

                Iowa

                                Adrian Clayborn – Defensive End: Possesses all of the physical tools you want from a starting defensive end. While he isn’t the best speed rusher, he has great power and can use that power to press the pocket and disrupt running lanes. He is also very disciplined and won’t get suckered in by play fakes. All that being said, his lack of initial burst, occasional lack of effort defending the running game, inability to drop into coverage and questionable character are really going to hurt his draft stock. If he can improve of athleticism and test well at the combine, he can solidify his spot in the middle to late first round, but even if he doesn’t he could end up dropping into the second round and being a pleasant surprise later in the season, a la Carlos Dunlap of this season.

Final Pick

                Missouri – Iowa is going into this game without their leading runningback and main kick returner (who also happens to be their second leading receiver), both whom were suspended. Losing either one would have made this game hard. Losing both spells doom. Missouri wins.