Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky
Kentucky’s offense has to go through runningback Derrick Locke if they want a chance to win this game. Regular starting quarterback Mike Hartline has been suspended for an off-the-field incident that took place in early December and now the Wildcats have to count on Morgan Newton to lead their passing offense. Newton is nowhere near the kind of passer that Hartline is. His accuracy is not where it should be to face this kind of defense, which does well against the pass by rushing the passer and forcing the opposing quarterback into making bad decisions. If the Wildcats passing offense is going to get into into any sort of a rhythm, they’re going to need to get Newton some easy completions early and protect Newton from the pass rush of Pittsburgh. This will mean limited touches down the field for talented wideout Randall Cobb. Kentucky offensive coordinator Randy Sanders will need to find creative ways to get the ball into Cobb’s hands to pull some of the pressure off of Locke and Newton, who is a good runner. If they can find ways to get Locke and Cobb in space with the ball, Kentucky may be able to find a way to move the ball consistently against a less than stellar tackling secondary of the Pittsburgh Panthers.
On the other side, Pitt has a pair of small, but dangerous runners in Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. Both have the ability to find lanes behind their big offensive line. Also the Kentucky defenders have a hard time gaining leverage and getting off blocks. They need to be able slowdown that running game, because they would have a better chance of forcing turnovers against starting quarterback Tino Sunseri, who has made questionable decisions in the past and is young enough to be confused by rotating coverage looks. However that may not be enough against the talents of Johnny Baldwin, who can knife through zone coverage like no-one else and is difficult to match-up with man-on-man. Corners Randall Burden and Anthony Mosley are also going to need to show great discipline against the passing game, because the Panthers like to use double moves to take advantage of the great speed of Baldwin.
Prospects to Watch
Pittsburgh
Johnny Baldwin – Wide Receiver: While Baldwin still needs to work a bit on his separation skills; he is an elite prospect who reminds me a little bit of Randy Moss in his skill set. He has natural hands and dominant long speed, made easier by his long striding legs. He effortlessly tracks the ball in the air and is big enough to win 99% of the jump ball. He is also a strong competitor and has the frame to eat-up opposing corners in run blocks. He could be more consistent in this area, but with his ability to just quickly eat up off-coverage, this is a minor issue. Baldwin should go solidly in the first round, as long as he comes out.
Kentucky
Derrick Locke – Runningback: Locke is woefully undersized, but he brings great speed and open field talents. He also has great explosiveness and quickness that should help any team looking for a good change of pace back. Locke also has experience returning kicks and is dangerous in that aspect of the game as well adding to his stock. He may never be a starting runningback, but he can certainly contribute to special teams and give an occasional big play to the offense. He could go in the 7th round if he tests well.
Final Pick
Pittsburgh – Regardless of how many times I am wrong, I think losing the starting quarterback is just too damaging for a team to make up for. Pittsburgh will take advantage of that fact to beat down on Newton and the Wildcats.
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