Alabama vs. Michigan State
Alabama’s offense has a major fundamental flaw in their game, the inconsistency of their offensive line. So much of what the Crimson Tide has done offensively is dependent on their offensive line playing well. They certainly have the ability to run the ball well whether their offensive line is play well or not, but the threat of passing is lessened when the offensive line can’t protect well against blitzes or active defensive lineman. That allows the defense to stack the box against the run, regardless of how talented the receivers are. Alabama runningbacks Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson are good at running behind their pads and punishing opposing tacklers. However their top end speed can be beat by the quick, athletic linebacker and defensive lineman that Michigan State has. However, Michigan State’s linebacker shave a tendency to overrun plays, which allow seams that Ingram and Richardson can take advantage of. Greg McElroy is still an effective quarterback, but he has always been more of a game manager than a game changer. He knows how to work the underneath routes and keep the chains moving on short passes, but if he is getting pressured consistently, he’ll have a hard time not floating the ball on his passes over the middle. It also doesn’t help that Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi likes to mix up the looks he gives opposing quarterbacks.
Michigan State’s offense revolves around the strong running of runningbacks Edwin Baker, Le’Veon Bell and Larry Caper. Baker is explosive and has a low center of gravity, making him tough to take down, while Bell has good size and speed and Caper is a reliable role player. However they face one of the best run defense in the country, with talented players like Marcell Dareus and Don’t’a Hightower leading the charge against the opposing runningbacks. Dareus is great at controlling the line of scrimmage and allowing Hightower and CJ Mosley to run to the ball. However if Alabama becomes too overzealous in their pursuit of the running game, they’ll allow a good quarterback in Kirk Cousins to pick apart their secondary. While Alabama did have the third most interception in the country this past year and has a ball-hawking safety in Robert Lester, they are also missing their other great safety, Mark Barron. With Barron gone, Lester is the most consistent defensive back they have playing right now and that cause problems against Cousins, who can find the seams against zone coverage. Alabama needs to be able to pressure Cousins into making mistakes.
Prospects to Watch
Alabama
Julio Jones – Wide Receiver: Julio Jones is the definition of a big play waiting to happen. Jones has great speed and a long stride that helps him accelerate quickly. He also has good hands, but he can be inconsistent when trying to catch in traffic. He needs to be more disciplined in catching the ball away from his frame and tracking the deep ball. Also, his route running is not as crisp as it could be. He’s not afraid to work over the middle, but he may drop the ball and struggle to gain separation on short routes. His rare speed and strong (if inconsistent) hands are difficult to ignore. Another year in school would help him, but with his senior quarterback leaving, it makes more sense for him to leave while his stock is high. Should he leave, he’ll probably find himself being drafted in the middle to late first round, early second round at the latest.
Michigan State
Greg Jones – Linebacker: Jones is an athletic sideline-to-sideline defender that has good enough range to be a three-down linebacker. He shows a great ability to pursue the ball and knows how to rush the passer from his inside linebacker position. He can stop a runningback’s momentum and doesn’t back down when facing a blocker. However, he also can get over-aggressive in pursuing the ball and can be overwhelmed by big, strong offensive lineman. He may be undervalued because of his lack of ideal athleticism, but he is a solid linebacker who should be a starter within his first two years in the league. He’ll probably go between the second and third round.
Final Pick
Michigan State – The last time Alabama faced a team with an active defensive front and a strong running game, they lost. I think similar results will come in this game.
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