Chip Kelly and the NFL Zone Read Myth

        With the news that Oregon coach Chip Kelly is very close to becoming the new head coach of the Cleveland Browns, there has been a lot of discussion about how his system would translate to the NFL and how the NFL has been incorporating aspects of the zone read offense in recent years. Well, the simple truth is that his system would flop horribly if brought to the NFL and the focus on the option read and pistol concepts that have been brought to the NFL have more to do with the coaches running them than they do the system themselves. Also, the recent success of college coaches in the NFL ranks, headlined by Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Schiano has little to do with the trends of college football and more to do with those coaches specifically.

       First, let’s look at the teams that are incorporating option read and pistol concepts into their offense. The most notable and successful of these teams are the 49ers, the Redskins and the Seahawks. In each case they have athletic quarterbacks with strong arms, who are also stating for the firs time in the NFL. This is important to note because the trend I’ve seen is that rookie or first time starting quarterbacks with athleticism have a tendency to be very successful in their first year, but flop in their second year as opposing teams learn what they’re doing and prepare for it. A prime example is Cam Newton. While he set the NFL on fire during his rookie season by throwing for over 4,000 yards and rushing for 15 touchdowns, his weakness were also on display for all to see. This past season, defenses prepared for him and while he still was dynamic in racking up yards, he had far less success in the redzone and was a turnover machine. The question now is will Cam adjust his game to eliminate those weaknesses or will he trust his athleticism to get him by as he has in the past. These questions are also true for Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson. Will they be able to adjust their games as the NFL adjusts to them or will the obstinately stick to what works now, even if it fails in the future?

        The second, and in my opinion, the most important thing to note about these three teams is that their coaches had extensive experience in the NFL before they attempted to incorporate these elements in their offense. Jim Harbaugh only coached in the NFL for two years before becoming the head coach at San Diego, then Standford. However, prior to that, he spent 15 years as a NFL quarterback, even earning a trip to the Pro Bowl in 1995. This extensive experience gave him an insight into NFL offenses then he became exposed to the modern college game, which taught him the importance of adjusting your scheme to your talent base and showing multiple looks before committing to a play. Even when you consider his time at Stanford, he ran a basically pro-style offense with spread concepts and trick plays sprinkled in, making him an ideal head coach. Also consider that Colin Kaepernick set all kinds of Nevada records running the Pistol zone-option offense under the inventor of that system, Chris Ault. Combing these facts it’s pretty easy to see why the 49ers have been successful incorporating those concepts into their offense.

        Then you have the Redskins. Well, the answer to how they did it so effectively is simple, Mike Shanahan. In some respects, Shanahan is the father of all zone-read offense, since it was him and offensive line coach Alex Gibbs who introduced the concept to the Broncos back when he and John Elway were together. From there, it would have been simple to incorporate the option offense. Now, Shanahan has a quarterback and running back that are capable of pulling off the option offense without a hitch and has learned the ins and outs of different kinds of offenses in his year away from coaching. His pure coaching ability is what separates him.

        With the Seahawks, Pete Carroll had been a head coach for the Jets and Patriots before going to USC for nine years then rejoining the Seahawks. He runs a mostly pro-style system and the read option was included only this year because of Russell Wilson’s athletic ability. For the most part they run a basic pro-style offense, with enough wrinkles thrown in to account for Wilson’s strengths. Greg Schiano, though not running zone read, is also cited as a reason that college coaches can be successful in the NFL. Well, I don’t think it really applies when looking at Chip Kelly. Schiano ran a pro-style offense at Rutgars and was surrounded by NFL talent when he was an assistant at Penn State and Miami (sandwiching three years as an assistant with the Bears). Those experiences prepared him for his time in the NFL, though how successful he’ll be in the long run has yet to be seen.

        At the end of the day, I just don’t think Chip Kelly will be successful in the NFL because the zone option of the college game is NOT changing the NFL. It’s become a wrinkle, much like the wildcat. It’s only a matter of time before the wrinkle gets soothed out. As time goes one, I expect it to be used less and less by the teams who are currently using it as their quarterbacks adjust to the speed of the NFL and the defensive schemes they’re seeing. With Kelly’s lack of NFL experience and complete reliance on a scheme that would never succeed long term in the NFL, I expect that he’ll either have to bring in an experienced NFL offensive mind to help him transition or have to make serious adjustments to his offensive philosophy if he wants to be successful in the NFL.