Outback Bowl Preview

Florida vs. Penn State

                Florida has fallen on hard times. While everyone knew that losing Tim Tebow was going to hurt their offense, I don’t think anyone expected to see this kind of drop-off in their offensive production. Fortunately for Florida, they look like they’re going to have a full complement of runningbacks for the first time in what feels like months. Emmanuel Moody and Mike Gillislee are strong runners, but the key to the Gators rushing game is to get the ball in the hands of smaller but faster runners Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey. Both are fast enough to beat Penn State linebackers, most notable middle linebacker Chris Colasanti. John Brantley, the guy who was supposed to be better than Tim Tebow, has struggled mightily in Florida’s offense and has shown an, at best, erratic arm and has been pounded on through the whole season. The pass protection of the current Florida offensive line simply hasn’t been good enough to justify them going to the air very often during the course of this game. They will probably mix in back-up quarterbacks Trey Burton and Jordan Reed a lot and focus on using the zone-read option to help open up the offense in the running game. This helps Penn State’s defense since they will be able to predict the play-calling of the Florida offense with relative ease. If they can play disciplined gap-sound defense, they should be able to limit Florida’s success on the ground.

                Penn State’s offense is not so lucky though. Florida defense is what got them here and it’s what is going to give them the best chance to win this game. Penn State’s young quarterback Matt McGloin has shown well in his six starts to end the regular season and can carve up a defense when he is allowed to play within his skill set. He doesn’t have a strong enough arm to threaten a defense deep, but is good at spreading the ball around in underneath routes. However Florida’s defense excels at rushing the passer and forcing bad throws to their ball hawking secondary. Penn State will look to Evan Royster and their offensive line to provide balance and take pressure off of McGloin. However Florida’s defense is very athletic and should be able to push around the Penn State offensive line. Royster is not the kind of runner who can create completely on his own and he will struggle if his running lanes are closed down by the Florida defensive line.

Prospects to Watch

                Florida

                                Ahmad Black – Safety: Ahmad Black is yet another in a continuing line of strong secondary players coming out of Florida from the past few years. The main knocks on him are that is a bit short, he can’t make highlight reel catches and that he can be swallowed up by big offensive lineman. None of these are deal-breakers in my eyes and most can be game planned away. He has great athleticism and range allowing him to cover half the field. He has enough speed to recover from a false-step and still shut down a receiver. His man-to-man coverage skills are not as good as his zone coverage skills, but he has all the tools he needs to excel in the aspect of the game as well. He has good instincts and knows how to read the quarterback’s eyes. Additionally, he is a sound tackler who takes good angles to coverage and tackles. His size may hold him back, but he is going to be drafted no later than the third round.

                Penn State

                                Stefen Wisniewski – Offensive Center/Guard: Wisniewski comes from a football family. Both his father Leo and, more famously, his uncle Steve played in the NFL. Stefen has enough skills to be drafted, but is not the best option at the interior line. He hasn’t shown the kind of strength he needs to be a successful interior lineman at the NFL level. He also has shown the tendency to lean into blocks on pass protection and stop driving his feet in run blocking. These kinds of tendencies lead to spots as special team’s blockers, not as starters. He does a good job with most of the fundamentals and shows good awareness as a center. However, that’s not enough to overcome his deficiencies. For a player who will need to play catch-up with some of the fundamentals to be a viable option in the starting lineup, being picked in the 4^th or 5^th round would be appropriate.

Final Pick

                Florida – In Urban Meyer’s final game as head coach of the Gators, his players will be extra motivated to send their coach out with a win. Then you add in the speed advantage the Gators have and you have yourself a victory.