Alright, now the staff at ESPN has decided to switch from pure positions to general roles, focusing this week on pass rushers. Here’s the link to the article: http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/tag/_/name/2011-pass-rushers-power-rankings
ESPN’s list consists of:
1. DeMarcus Ware
2. Clay Matthews
3. Dwight Freeney
4. Jared Allen
5. Tamba Hali
6. James Harrison
7. John Abraham
8. Julius Peppers
9. LaMarr Woodley
10. Cameron Wake
Others mentioned in the article as receiving votes or being snubs includes Mario Williams, Terrell Suggs, Robert Mathis, Elvis Dumervil, Justin Tuck, Trent Cole and Chris Long.
Ok, right off I have an issue with this list. Not with Ware being at the top, he’s a beast, but I do have an issue with Matthews being number 2. If you’ve read my previous list articles, you probably know why but for those who are just tuning in, I have a major issue with players who have been successful for less than three full years (let alone have only played for two years) being considered among the best at their position. In Matthews case, while I acknowledge his excellence in his first two years and the obvious talent he has, he is still just two young for me to put him as high as number two. Especially in a category that is as deep as pass rushers.
The same is true for both Tamba Hali and Cameron Wake. While both players had very good seasons, both were breakout players. For me, a that kind of breakout is nice and shows great potential, but there are reasons players like that just don’t show that kind of play before their breakout season. Also, there is no guarantee that they will be able to produce at that level going forward. In the case of Hali, he had shown himself to be a solid (but just solid) pass rusher in his previous seasons. But he only showed himself to be potentially elite this past season. He needs to continue at that level. This is doubly true of Cameron Wake.
Why is Peppers so low? He is one of the most psychically gifted pass rushers in the NFL and just because he didn’t have a great season last year, doesn’t mean he still isn’t one of the most dominant players at his position. He should at least be higher than Harrison and Woodley. Harrison is getting old really fast and doesn’t have a lot of good years ahead of him. While I do really like Woodley, he is still rather young. I would have been fine with snubs Terrell Suggs, Trent Cole or Mario Williams being in his place. Also, not even one mention of Osi Umenyiora or Shaun Phillips, really?
Now that I have covered that, here’s my top 10.
1. DeMarcus Ware – It is almost inarguable the Ware is the best pass rusher in the NFL right now. In a short 6 year career, Ware has been a 5-time Pro Bowler and 3-time first team All-Pro while accumulating 80 sacks, twice leading the league in sacks. His combination of speed size and power are almost unmatched in the NFL right now.
2. Dwight Freeney – Dwight Freeney is a nightmare to account for coming off the edge. While he doesn’t have a great deal of strength, he does an excellent job of using his speed to set the edge. Then, as opponents adjust to his speed, he has perhaps the best spin move in the game to use as a counter. He is simply a dominating performer.
3. Julius Peppers – While Peppers is not as quick off the snap as Freeney, but he brings far more power to the position. He is a unique player in terms of how his sheer physical size and speed mesh. He has shown the ability to run around and run through opposing tackles, to equal effect.
4. Mario Williams – Perhaps the most physically gifted player on this list, Williams has come full circle from being booed at the draft to being among the best pass rushers in the NFL. He has amazing athleticism and a great frame to build on. While he plays somewhat lighter than one would expect, he still has a lot of power and has shown the ability to walk tackles back into the quarterback. He will only improve as his understanding of offenses continues to grow.
5. Jared Allen – Allen is as balanced as any on this list. He has great speed coming off the edge and can power his way through most double teams and all but the most powerful of offensive lineman. Additionally, he has great instincts; being able to tell where a quarterback is moving within the pocket. He can knock the ball loose, but because he is more of a power rusher than a speed rusher, he doesn’t always get the credit as a guy who can cause turnovers.
6. Osi Umenyiora - Somehow Osi Umenyiora has been overlooked as a pass rusher since he tore his Achilles’ in 2008. But while it did take him a year to return to form, he remains one of the best rushers in the NFL. His lack of recognition probably comes from the fact that he doesn’t deliver big hits, but excels at knocking the ball out of the quarterback’s hand just before a pass can be thrown. He quietly tied the NFL record for forced fumbles in a season with 10 (which is a record for a defensive lineman) and shouldn’t be ignored when teams are gaming-planning against the Giants.
7. Robert Mathis – Mathis is a lot like Freeney, only a bit more one dimensional. He plays as an undersized 4-3 defensive end that relies heavily on his speed to be effective. In that regard, he excels. While he hasn’t been as good as Dwight Freeney (and playing across from him could have an effect on his production), he has still proven to be a reliable pass rusher. Much like Freeney, he does an excellent job of stripping the ball when he is around the ball.
8. Trent Cole – Trent Cole is often underrated as a pass rusher because of the blitz heavy defense the Eagles use. However, he is as dangerous a pass rusher as can be found in the NFL right now. He has elite speed coming off the edge and is deceptively powerful. He excels at hitting the opposing tackle on the inside shoulder then jerking them out of his away as he goes around them. He is consistently around the quarterback in spite of having little help, but came be overpowered if he tries to engage bigger tackles head on.
9. John Abraham – While he has been playing for a good amount of time, John Abraham has yet to showed signs of slowing down. JA is an elite athlete at the position, being able to beat most offensive tackles to the edge and run down the quarterback. He has never been the most powerful player at the position, but he understands offenses and how to use his speed to counter the power run plays. While he doesn’t play like an aging defensive end, he still is getting older and the likelihood that he will be able to maintain this level of play decreasing.
10. Justin Tuck – Tuck is somewhat reminiscent of Peppers in how has a good mixture of speed and strength. He is relentless as a pass rusher, never quitting on a play and being able to accumulate sacks in part because of that good lane integrity. He also does a good job of forcing fumbles and using his excellent athleticism to jump onto fumbles when they bounce his way.
So that’s that. I’ll leave you with the remaining 10 running backs that make up my top 20. Additionally, I have included a least that divides the best 4-3 defensive ends from the best 3-4 outside linebackers. While both are pass rushers, the responsibilities of both positions are vastly different, so I don’t believe it’s fair to say they are just the same.
11. LaMarr Woodley – Woodley is raising very quickly up the ranks as an elite pass rusher. He has great speed and ability to power through blockers. While he is a very young player, he has been incredibly productive since he became a starter. His ability to turn the corner faster than the tackle can set up has allowed him to be incredibly productive. He is ranked higher than Harrison because he is younger than Harrison.
12. James Harrison – Harrison’s entire game is about his speed. He is one of those players who just has a step on everyone around him. However, it took him a while to play at the level he is now and because of that, his age is catching up to him. That’s why he is down this far.
13. Terrell Suggs – Suggs is one of those players who can sometimes be forgotten about because he doesn’t always put up great sack totals. However, numbers don’t tell the whole story with many players and the same is true of Suggs. He is an ideal 3-4 outside linebacker who is consistently around the quarterback and has a knack for forcing fumbles.
14. Shaun Phillips – Remember when Shaun Phillips was that guy across from Shawn Merriman? Well it’s pretty clear who the better player is right now. Phillips is more quick than fast, but he has a good understanding of how to use leverage to make that quickness all the more deadly. He is often underrated.
15. Elvis Dumervil – While some people may have forgotten his contributions to the Broncos a year ago, Dumervil’s skill set makes him one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL. He is fast enough to beat most tackles to the edge and versatile enough to play well both as a 4-3 defensive end and as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He slips this far only because he missed most of this past season with a pectoral injury.
16. Tamba Hali – Normally I wouldn’t give Hali this kind of credit because he hadn’t broken the ten sack mark before this past season. However, he has always been a solid pass rusher who uses a good mix of power and athleticism to get to the quarterback. He has improved each year since Jared Allen left and while he isn’t the player that Allen was, he has become a hot commodity with his quality play.
17. Clay Matthews – Matthews is skyrocketing up this list, though most would want him to be much higher. He is one of the most relentless pass rushers in the league right now, but he is still just too young to surpass some of the more proven pass rushers in the NFL. If he has a great season (10+ sacks) next year (and I have no doubt he will), he will be in the top 10 next year.
18. Brian Orakpo – Orakpo has proven to be a very odd case. While he played Defensive End at Texas (very well I might add), he was shifted to linebacker when he entered the NFL. While many players do this every year, the thing that made Orakpo odd was the fact that he was transitioning to linebacker in a 4-3 defensive system. That’s usually not a position where a former defensive end can transition well because of the coverage responsibilities. However, Orakpo made a big splash in his rookie season, notching 11 sacks. He didn’t do as well this year; however he had little help in pressing the pocket so teams adjusted their blocking to account for him. He still had a good season and is one of the better pass rushers in the NFL right now.
19. Calais Campbell – Underrated because of where he plays and what position he plays, Campbell pressures the quarterback as well as (if not better than) any other 3-4 defensive end in the NFL right now. His athleticism is very good considering his lack of elite speed and he knows how to press the pocket in spite of being double-teamed. If he played on another team, he might be thought of better.
20. Cameron Wake – This was quite a coup for the former CFL defensive players of the year. With former stars Joey Porter and Jason Taylor moving on, Wake was allowed to play more regularly and turned in an excellent performance. He was relentless in his rushing and excelled at jarring the opposing offensive lineman with a powerful hit then slip past them with his speed.
4-3 Defensive Ends
1. Dwight Freeney
2. Julius Peppers
3. Mario Williams
4. Jared Allen
5. Osi Umenyiora
6. Robert Mathis
7. Trent Cole
8. John Abraham
9. Justin Tuck
10. Charles Johnson – Johnson broke out this year as a Pro Bowl caliber player and should demand a high price among free agent pass rushers once free agency sets in. He brings a good mix of speed and power to the table and should only improve as he is given more opportunities to play.
3-4 Outside Linebackers
1. DeMarcus Ware
2. LaMarr Woodley
3. James Harrison
4. Terrell Suggs
5. Shaun Phillips
6. Elvis Dumervil
7. Tamba Hali
8. Clay Matthews
9. Brain Orakpo
10. Cameron Wake
Well there you go. Next time we will be covering tight ends. We’ll see you then.
I'm ok with not going solely by 2010 (ie: not weighting breakout seasons), but mentioning sack totals without QB hits or QB pressures/hurries is concerning. Using these plus the number of times a player rushed the QB, it should be easy to objectively rank pass-rushers (pressure/snaps). Going by 2009 + 2010 (any further back is irrelevant), then Woodley & Hali (95 total QB disruptions in 2010) rank above Ware (though less than 1% ahead). And Ray Edwards ranks ahead of Jared Allen (by far). Williams & Peppers both rank much lower than their athleticism would indicate (granted MW played hurt this year, and Peppers played high-snap counts on a defense that preaches playing the run-first - and his run defense was impeccable)
ReplyDeleteThat's fair enough, but only if you're looking at everything from a purely statistical perspective. The fact is, no matter how much people try to change it, that stats do not tell the entire story, no matter how advanced they become. For example, Woodley may have those numbers you bring up, but he also has another great player drawing blocking away, that would make his numbers better than Hali's right? But Hali hasn't been doing it nearly as well as long as Woodley. And Edwards may have better numbers these past two seasons (and saying that all numbers beforehand are irrelevant sounds like you're changing the numbers to fit your opinion rather than looking at the facts), but how much of Allen's play has made those numbers better? Allen has been good on two teams while Edwards has been goo with the Vikings and only while Jared Allen was opposite him.
ReplyDeleteLook we probably look at things differently. You look at stats (engineered or not) and I look at what is happening on the field, which in my mind always will trump stats.