Thursday, March 17, 2011

Top 30 Runningbacks

Alright, last week ESPN did their best wide receivers now its running backs. So we’ll start off the same way we did for the wide receivers. Here’s the link to the article: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/22193/power-rankings-top-10-nfl-running-backs?prosaction=newpost&status=ok

                ESPN’s list consists of:

                1. Chris Johnson
                2. Adrian Peterson  
                3. Maurice Jones-Drew
                3. Arian Foster
                5. Jamaal Charles
                6. Michael Turner  
                7. Steven Jackson  
                8. Ray Rice  
                9. Rashard Mendenhall  
                10. Frank Gore
                10. LeSean McCoy
                10. Darren McFadden

                Others mentioned in the article as receiving votes or being snubs includes Thomas Jones, Peyton Hillis and LaDainian Tomlinson. Matt Forte was mentioned in the embedded video.  

                OK, right off I have a problem with the top of this list. Chris Johnson shouldn’t be above Adrian Peterson because he is too unbalanced as a player. Johnson relies entirely on his speed and elusiveness to be effective, which works for now, however when that speed fades he has no other assets he could fall back on. Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, is a great balance of size, strength and speed. When his speed begins to fade, he’ll still have his power and balance he can rely on to be productive.

                I don’t really have a problem with MJD being third, he’s an all-around dominate runner and one of the best touchdown scorers in the NFL right now. However, Arian Foster has no business being compared to Jones-Drew at this point in time. Foster has had one good season, while Jones-Drew has been very good to great every year he’s been in the league. If Foster produces similarly in the next few years, he will move up in my mind, but until then, he’s a one-year wonder to me.

                Jamaal Charles falls into that same category, though not to the same degree. Charles has done a good job for the past two years, but he can’t really be considered in the same vein as a lot of the other guys on this list. He makes a big impact with very few carries, but he may never be able to carry a team the way his teammate Thomas Jones has (albeit on other teams) in the past.

While I have no issue the majority of the names on the list, I’m not a fan of the three way tie at the end of the list. Gore is definitely qualified enough to appear on his list, he has shown over a number of years that he is certainly deserving of a spot of this list. However, Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy shouldn’t be put in that same category. Until this year, McFadden was considered a major disappointment and McCoy has been pretty good, but not spectacular as of yet. Both are trending upward, but neither has proven that they are ready to be put in the same category as Frank Gore, who would need to prove that he is on the downswing.

Now that I have covered that, here’s my top 10.

1. Adrian Peterson – Consistently great and one of the most complete runners in the game right now.

2. Chris Johnson – Just as consistently great, however he isn't as strong. Is less likely to score inside the 20.

3. Steven Jackson – Has the same kind of size-strength-speed mix that Peterson has, and is a better overall receiver. However, his production is not quite on the same level, mostly due to the cast around him.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew – Basically the same guy as Jackson, just in a smaller body. For pure ability, he is right there with anyone on this list, however the limited number of carries in the first three years of his career drop him down slightly.

5. Ray Rice – Almost the exact same as MJD. However his limited carries in the red-zone keep him down my list.

6. Frank Gore – Right there with any of these others in terms of talent, however he is also hurt by a poor supporting cast and has had injury problems in the past.

7. Rashard Mendenhall – Not spectacular, but well balanced productive young back.

8. Jamaal Charles – Had a great year and is a game breaker. However he may never be the guy who can carry a team. More evidence required.

9. Michael Turner – Top 5 if he wasn't hurt so often in 2009.

10. Matt Forte – 1200+ all purpose yards all three years in the league. Could be the next Roger Craig, if not Marshall Faulk.

So that’s that. I’ll leave you with the remaining 20 running backs that make up my top 30.  Next week, we’ll be doing the top 20 pass rushers. See you then.

11. Cedric Benson – If Benson had more big plays, he might have jumped into the top ten. But he is still a quality runner between the tackles and is a bit of a throw back to the days of Rudi Johnson and Corey Dillon. Now the Bengals just need to stick by him, because when they tried to have a faster back (like Chris Perry) be the focus, it has not worked out.

12. DeAngelo Williams – Would be in the top ten over Charles and Mendenhall if he wasn’t hurt last year. When healthy, Williams is in the conversation with Peterson and Jackson for the most balanced running backs in the NFL. He has excellent speed and balance to go with surprising power for a smaller back. Even in spite of splitting carries with Jonathan Stewart, he has been able to be very productive and still averages over four yards a carry, even when everyone knows he’s the guy getting the ball. If he gets healthy, he’ll jump way ahead of a lot of these other guys.

13. Ryan Grant – Grant is in a similar position to Williams. He was able to be very productive for an extended period of time, before suffering the season-ending ankle injury in the season opener last season. He has good speed and elusiveness and enough power to stay durable. He doesn’t break a ton of tackles, but he really hasn’t had to. If he returns to form following this injury, he should work his way back into the top ten.

14. LeSean McCoy – Though young, McCoy has quickly filled the role that Brian Westbrook had filled for years. He is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield and has great speed. However, he doesn’t have a lot of power and struggles to pound the ball in short yardage situations. Also, he has only been in the league for two years and he was just OK in his first season. He needs to play at a higher level for a longer period of time before he can crack the top ten.

15. Arian Foster – Foster was amazing this past season. However that is the only thing he has done in his career. As good as he was last year, I can’t say he’s a top ten running back when he has only been successful in one season. He looks like he has all the tools to be successful for years to come, but he actually needs to be good for that time frame in order for me to think better of him.

16. Fred Jackson – Jackson is probably the most underrated running back in the league right now. Jackson is every bit as balanced as every player in the top ten (in some cases, more balanced) but gets about a quarter of the coverage as most of these other players. He’s good at catching the ball out of the backfield and is a solid runner. However he’s production is just not good enough over the course of his career for him to join the upper echelon of elite running backs.

17. Darren McFadden – Darren McFadden is in much the same space as Arian Foster. He had an excellent season, but it just doesn’t outweigh the poor seasons he had prior. He has great explosiveness and speed coming to the line and good power once he gets past the defensive line. However, it took him three years to begin producing like that kind of player and he needs to so that it wasn’t just a flash in the pan before I begin anointing him the next great Raiders running back.

18. Peyton Hillis – Hillis is one of those amazing players who has been underrated all through college and his time in the pros. He was originally drafted to be a fullback with the Broncos, however injuries at running back forced him to become the starter for a brief period of time, in which he showed the ability to be the one-cut, downhill runner that zone-blocking schemes covet. However, injuries and coaching changes resulted in him being traded to the Browns. When he was called upon to be the starter this past season, he responded by being simply great. He has a great balance of power and quickness as well as being a good receiver out of the backfield. However he has only done it in one season and has had a fumbling problem, which keeps him down.

19. Ahmad Bradshaw – Bradshaw was difficult to rank. He did have a very good year, but at the same time he proved during the majority of that great season that he really isn’t ready to be a full-time starter. He had fumbling problems and began to break down as the season progressed. However, he does have very good elusiveness in the open field and is a breakaway threat. He’s just a guy who needs to be complimenting a bigger back.

20. Jonathan Stewart – Stewart in the second of the very good Carolina running backs. Most people consider Stewart to be the better runner between him and DeAngelo Williams, but that simply isn’t true. While Stewart is a well-balanced as a runner, he is slightly less well-balanced than Williams. Stewart is a bit slower, but he still has all the tools to be a workhorse. He just needs more opportunities.

21. BenJarvus Green-Ellis – Green Ellis came on strong this year, providing the kind of down-hill running threat the Patriots have lacked since Corey Dillon retired following the 2006 season. He showed very good cut back ability and elusiveness in small areas during the course of the season and the occasionally burst of long speed. The things that are really keeping him down on this list are the facts that he has only had one good year and he really isn’t a big play threat. Like many on this list, more experience and quality seasons are needed.

22. Thomas Jones – When you settle down and begin really thinking about it, Thomas Jones brought the same thing to the Chiefs that he brought to the Bears and Jets; a stabilizing, steady runner in the middle. While Jamaal Charles is on the rise and more well recognized because of his amazing speed and elusiveness, Jones played as big a role (if not a bigger role) in the Chiefs leading the NFL in rushing this past season. Jones was able to keep the carries evenly split between him and Charles and kept Charles fresh for those big runs. Also, while Jones isn’t the workhorse he once was, he was effective when he was running, so teams couldn’t relax when Charles left the game. He is fading, but he isn’t fading quietly.

23. LaDainian Tomlinson – LT is another runner who isn’t fading quietly into the night. He generated a lot of buzz around the Jets early in the season when he was playing a lot like the old LT. However, the burst and he was showing during that stretch began to fade as the season progressed and he seemed to fade back into the shell of himself that we saw in his last year with San Diego. He’s likely finished as an effective running back, but until he proves that he’s finished for an entire season, I’m not going to count him out.

24. Michael Bush – Michael Bush is one of those backs not a lot of people talk about, but every year he plays like a star runner who’s being held back. He brings very good size and strength to the position and has a surprising amount of speed and elusiveness. However, in an age of Jamaal Charleses and Chris Johnsons, where an average of 4 yards per carry seems just OK and big plays are in vogue. A guy like Michael Bush, who is more well-balanced as a player than either of those two, gets underrated. He will climb up this list if could go somewhere (like Washington) and become the lead rusher.

25. LaGarrette Blount – I’m normally very hesitant to put rookies on lists like this, for much the same reason that I’m hesitant to put breakout players on them, I just need to see more of them.  However, Blount had a very good season and showed all the tools that one would want in a lead running back. He showed good power, speed and balance in his limited appearances with the Buccaneers this season. He’ll climb up the list if he continues to show these qualities going forward.

26. Brandon Jacobs – While Jacobs lost his starting job early in the season, he was returned to that role by the end of the season and showed why he held that role. He isn’t nearly as balanced a runner as Bradshaw is, but he is a better fit for a starter than Bradshaw is. He has good speed for a big back and runs the MAC truck going downhill. However, he has had issues with hitting the hole at full power in the past. He should remain the starter for the Giants and return to form as a quality first half runner, while Bradshaw returns to his role as a closer.

27. Marshawn Lynch – Probably the most willful runner in the NFL right now. That run you saw against the Saints in the playoffs wasn’t a one time thing, he has been doing that kind of thing for years with the Bills. However he was always caught behind a bad offensive line in Buffalo and he was rarely able to find the space to break into the open field the way he did in that game. If he can play like that more consistently, he’ll climb up the ranks.

28. Willis McGahee – McGahee has seen his carries reduced significantly since Ray Rice joined the Ravens, falling more and more into the role of complimentary back. However he still has all the tools to be a lead rusher and was leaned on as the main red zone threat in Baltimore this past season. He just needs a chance to be that star at running back.

29. Pierre Thomas – Pierre Thomas has shown a lot of talent in the time he has been at New Orleans, but has also shown himself to be rather injury-prone. He has yet to rush for 1000 yards and has yet to score 10 touchdowns in a season. He’s here mostly on his pure ability as a rusher and receiver. He has shown the ability to be a tough rusher with a good balance of power and speed. If he could only stay healthy, he might work his way up.

30. Joseph Addai – Addai is a lot like Thomas, in that his injury history is what has kept him down on this list. If Addai could stay healthy, he remains a very balanced running back with a lot of ability as a rusher and receiver. However, much like Michael Bush and Steven Jackson, the fact that Addai isn’t really flashy in the way he runs or catches the ball causes him to be forgotten about as a quality player. He does need to pick up in terms of producing as a rusher, but for the most part he’s a solid player who could climb if he returns to the form he showed in his first two seasons in the league.

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