BCS National Championship Game Preview

Oregon vs. Auburn  

                I’m not really sure what I can say about these hasn’t already been said, but to me this game basically boils down to this: Can the Auburn defense slow down the Oregon offense enough for Auburn to win the game? Oregon likes to run their offense at warp-speed, getting up to the line and snapping the ball as fast as possible, by doing this, they limit the number of substitutions their opponents can make. This allows young quarterback Darron Thomas to make simple reads and decisions about whether or not he keeps the ball in the zone read option. Thomas is a dangerous runner, but the big play threat that got Oregon here has been LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. Both of whom have excellent speed and are difficult to tackle in the open field. The Auburn defensive backs and linebacker must be able to wrap up James and Barner when given the opportunity. Also, as odd as it sounds, the linebackers and defensive backs cannot simply maintain their gap assignments and wait for the ball to come to them, because of the speed of the Oregon runners. Instead they must attack the running lanes before the runners have a chance to get the edge. However this means that the defensive backs must also be strong in coverage, as Oregon likes to use misdirection and play-action to help open up the passing game. Man coverage will help limit communications breakdowns in the secondary, but the misdirection plays will be difficult for the Auburn corners not to bite on. Auburn does have one major advantage in the play of Nick Fairley, who is almost unblockable one-on-one. He should be able to slow down the rushing offense by penetrating along the interior and forcing runs to bounce further outside than they should. This will give the linebackers and defensive backs more time to determine who has the ball and pursue that ball carrier.

                On the other side, it’s pretty much a question of stopping Cam Newton. I know there are other talented athletes and football players on the offensive side of the ball for Auburn, but the offensive coaching staff has hitched their trailer to Cam Newton and expects him to carry them to victory by himself. He has shown the ability to do so against tough defense sin the SEC, however those teams only ever had a week to game plan against him. Oregon has had five weeks to figure out where his strengths and weaknesses are. Probably the biggest weakness that Newton has shown in his games to this point has been passing from the pocket. He is not as accurate as his numbers would indicate and struggles to read full coverages when forced to read the entire field. If Oregon can confine him to the pocket and use a deep safety to spy where Newton is going. It won’t be easy, but it’s the best strategy to use against the over-rated Newton.

Prospects to Watch

                Oregon

                                Casey Matthews – Linebacker: While he will likely have to move to outside linebacker in the NFL because he’s too small to survive in the interior, the Matthews bloodline alone should be enough to get him drafted. He plays hard and has shown the work ethic to succeed at the NFL level. He can get engulfed against larger offensive line and struggles occasionally to get off blocks and anchor against the run. However his athleticism is good enough to see him shooting the gap and occasionally rush the passer from the inside. He should see his name called between the 4^th and 6^th round.

                Auburn

                                Nick Fairley – Defensive Tackle: While I am somewhat hesitant to crown Fairley as a dominant prospect, I certainly can’t deny the hype he is receiving as an interior line prospect. He has shown rare quickness off-the-ball and great hand use when engaging offensive lineman. Fairley has shown more than enough power to beat single man zone blocking and the ability to press the pocket in spite of double teams. What concerns me is the fact that he has basically been only a one-year wonder at Auburn. That lack of experience and practice against top end competition could end up hurting his development in the NFL. In spite of this, he is considered a top 5 prospect and is likely to come out because of that fact.

Final Pick

                Oregon – While they haven’t faced a defense this good in the Pac-10, I think they’ll be able to come up with a plan that stops Newton. You stop Newton, you stop Auburn.