BAL vs. PIT
Perhaps we should refer to this as the body-bag rivalry; there are enough injuries every time these two teams face off for it to qualify. While the regular season saw these teams play two very tight games, it simply may not be the case this time. Both teams do know each other’s scheme’s fairly well, however the Ravens have struggled more through the season to have a dynamic, quick strike passing offense and, more importantly, to have a shutdown passing defense. While the Chiefs struggled to get their passing game going, it was more a case of the Chiefs not having receivers, other than Dwayne Bowe, who were capable of creating separation against the Ravens secondary. The Steelers have speed in the form of Antwaan Randle El, Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown who can be used from the slots positions to compliment starters Hines Ward and Mike Wallace. Wallace is the speedster that the Ravens need to account for if they want any chance to contain the Steelers passing game. On the other side, the Steelers defense has done a great job planning against Joe Flacco, often using 5 defensive backs to limit his throwing lanes. Also, with the exception of the woefully underused Donte’ Stallworth, the Ravens receiving corp. has no real burners. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin are all very good possession-type receivers, but aren’t great at stretching the field. Due to this fact, the Steelers will be able to bring consistent pressure and allow their corners (who are both solid tacklers) to contain the Ravens passing game. The rushing offenses basically cancel out against each teams dominant rush defense.
Against the Spread: This game is about as close to a push as you’re going to find during this weekend. Pittsburgh is a three point favorite only because they are playing at home. I do think they are going to when this game and I’m giving the points.
GB vs. ATL
The Packers did a good job of keeping Michael Vick and the Eagles offense contained last week. To that end, the Packers have a nice crutch to lean on while they figure themselves out offensively. In the previous meeting between these teams, the Packers were unable to run the ball with any sort of consistency but still out-gained the Falcons purely through their passing game. In fact, the rushing game set aside, the Packers seemingly outplayed the Falcons in every way in their first meeting. However, the two teams were actually fairly well matched when you watched the game. The real difference is that the Falcons made the plays they needed to make when they needed to make them. Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan helped lead his team to numerous fourth quarter comebacks; the previous meeting between these two teams included, and has lost only two games in the Georgia Dome. He is more efficient than dynamic, but has the ability to be dynamic when he needs to be. The same is true of the Flacons defense. While they aren’t the shutdown defense, they make plays when they need to and have playmakers in the form of Brent Grimes, William Moore and John Abraham. This should be an interesting game to watch.
Against the Spread: As of the time of this writing, the Falcons are a 1.5 point favorite. In light of what Matt Ryan has shown to this point in the season and his home record, I think this is a vast underrating of how good this Falcons team is. The Falcons are going to win and I’m giving the points.
SEA vs. CHI
Well, Saints fans can take solace in the fact that had they not lost in Seattle, they would’ve lost here. The Bears have built another good team with Lovie Smith leading the way. While they haven’t shown any particular identity on offense or defense, they make the plays they need to make. Even the Brash Jay Cutler has left little impression on on-lookers, yet they won eleven games. When it comes right down to it, their defense is what led them to that distinction. They’ve allowed the 9th fewest yards and 4th fewest points in the NFL during the regular season and you can expect their defense to be hungry when this game beings. However that may not mean much if the Seahawks are able to execute the way they did last week. The Seahawks coaching staff found the weaknesses in the Saints defense and exploited them to the best of their ability. That kind of execution is difficult to counter. In the previous meeting between these two teams, the Seahawks were able to control the line of scrimmage, preventing the Bears running game from gaining steam and sacking Jay Cutler six times. All of that being said, playing in Chicago in October (coming off of a bye week no less) is nothing like playing in Chicago in January. Both teams look very different now and it’s no guarantee that the Seahawks players are going to be able to focus after the huge upset they pull a week ago. Also, everything I said about travelling cross-country a week ago still applies here.
Against the Spread: Seattle is being tremendously underrated again, being a ten point dog to the home Bears. It’s certainly possible that the Seahawks could pull this upset, considering how well they played against the Bears earlier in the season; however the travel and lack of a home field advantage hurts their cause in my eyes. I’m taking the points, but still picking the Bears to win.
NYJ vs. NE
While some would say that this is a rivalry game and that makes everything else that has happened between these teams irrelevant, that’s utter nonsense. The Jets have yet to prove that they are consistent enough as a team to call this a real rivalry. Since losing Jim Leonard to injury part way through the season, the Jets pass defense just hasn’t been the same. Revis is a good as ever, however without Leonard working the back half of the field; the Jets have needed Antoniou Cromartie to play more off coverage, which is his weakness as a corner. Tom Brady and the Patriots coaching staff will exploit those weaknesses if presented with an opportunity to do so. Losing drew Coleman to injury this week doesn’t help the Jets in any way, since now they have considerably less depth, which the Pats can and will exploit. The other major problem the Jets have right now is their quarterback. Mark Sanchez is continuing to show that he was not ready for the NFL when he decided to come out in 2009. While he is developing nicely and the Jets can call plays around his weaknesses, he is still far too inconsistent and turnover prone to take on a Pats defense that has excelled at causing turnovers the past few weeks.
Against the Spread: While this could be an interesting game, the Jets aren’t ready yet. The loss of Drew Coleman, the flaws of Antonio Cromartie and the inconsistency of Mark Sanchez just make it too hard for the Jets to win this game. I’m also giving the nine points, just because of all the injuries the Jets have experienced in the past few weeks.
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