Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Sugar Bowl Preview

Ohio State vs. Arkansas

                When you really sit down and think about it, this quarterback could’ve happened at the end of every Big Ten season. Remember that Ryan Mallett started his career at Michigan. However, sadly for the Michigan fans, Mallett decided to leave with Lloyd Carr. Now they get to see what could have been.

                Ohio State has a good thing going for them with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. Pryor is a good runner and can be an excellent passer. If he is given a crease to run, he’ll burn a defense that way, but if the box is stacked to prevent his running, he’ll pick apart the opposing defense with solid passing. Having DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher at receiver is a great help, since both are solid receivers who can break big plays if left in single coverage. The times when Pryor has struggled are when he feels like he is being pressured but he actually isn’t. It’s not so much a matter of needing to sack him on every other play, but Arkansas needs to make him feel like he is being pressured without actually sacrificing players in coverage to pressure him. Using defensive line stunts and zone blitzes should accomplish this goal. However, the Razorbacks still need to be able to account for Dan Herron, the Buckeyes runningback. Ohio State has done a good job running the ball out of multiple sets and formations making their run offense very difficult to scheme against. This is a major advantage that the Ohio State has over the less than stellar run defense of Arkansas. Arkansas does have a good secondary and could limit the passing game, however if Ohio State is pounding the rock for the majority of the game, they may not matter. They also have an advantage in special teams, where they feature dynamic returner Jordan hall, facing the 111th ranked kick return defense. Expect the Buckeyes to have a field position advantage for most of the game.

                 Ryan Mallett really isn’t that different from Pryor as a passer. Yes, Mallett can certainly be a more polished passer than Pryor, however much like Pryor, Mallett struggles to adjust to the blitz and makes mistakes when he is pressured. Ohio State does a good job pressuring the quarterback and picking off passes with a veteran secondary. The Arkansas offense needs to be able to back the pressure off with quick short passes and strong running before trying to take shots downfield. Knile Davis, a big 220-pound runner needs to be the focal point of the offense early. Arkansas has a bit of a size advantage on the slightly smaller Ohio State run defense and the Ohio State linebackers, most notably Ross Homan have a hard time getting off blocks. If Arkansas can get physical up front and ram the ball down Ohio State’s throat, the way Bobby Petrino used to set up the pass at Louisville, then they can use play-action passes to open the field and give receivers like Cobi Hamilton, Jarius Wirght and Joe Adams a chance to make plays down field. Tight end DJ Williams will also be a great asset over the middle. It won’t as easy as it sounds though, Ohio State does a good job anchoring against the run and allowing their linebackers to attack runningbacks untouched.

Prospects to Watch

                Ohio State

                                Cameron Heyward – Defensive End: Considered one of the better defensive end prospects coming into the year, Heyward has fallen some during the course of the season. He hasn’t shown the kind of speed he needs to consistently pressure the passer and he has been inconsistent in his level of play, though not apparently due to lack of effort. To his credit he does have very good measurable, though he could stand to add some bulk. He plays with sound technique and is good at anchoring against the run. He is also good at using his hands and change of speed to exploit creases in the offensive line. He doesn’t have the versatility to play outside linebacker in a 3-4, which really hurts his value, but he does have the techinique advantage to play as complete defensive end in a 3-4. He will likely go between the late first and early second rounds, in spite of the flaws in his pass rush technique.

                Arkansas

                                Demarcus Love – Offensive Tackle:  While Love has shown the ability to play both on the right and the left, his athleticism lends itself more to playing right tackle than left. He can be beat by elite pass rushers, but otherwise is instinctive and has sound technique in pass blocking.  He is also a good run blocker, as long as he stays in-line. He often whiffs on blocks at the second level (linebackers). Teams that use a zone blocking scheme are not going to be high on him, but he can fit in with a team that prefers to maul opposing defenses. His sound technique in both run and pass blocking are difficult to ignore, though the same is true for his lack of ideal athleticism. He’ll probably go between the middle second round and the 5th round, depending on his testing results.

Final Pick

                Arkansas – The Big Ten is an old school conference, which has led to its terrible bowl record this year. Big Ten teams are built to play other Big Ten Teams, not the more athletic and cutting edge teams from other conferences. SEC teams are especially good at beating on teams like Ohio State. I’m not going to try and get cute here. The more athletic Arkansas team wins. 

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