Gator Bowl Preview

Mississippi State vs. Michigan

                Mississippi State’s offense is built off their strong running game. Runningbacks Vick Ballard and LaDarius Perkins are both quick runners with the ability to turn the corner and shift into another gear once they find some space. They also do a good job pressing the line and bouncing the ball to the outside once linebackers and safeties have been sucked to the middle. They’re helped by quarterback Chris Relf’s own athleticism and ability to punish a defense and designed quarterback runs. Mcihigan’s run defense gets a boost with the return of nose tackle Mike Martin, but he relies heavily on his quickness to penetrate and disrupt plays in the backfield. Against the mauling offensive line of Mississippi State, he could have a problem finding success. Michigan’s linebackers also have some problems in getting swept up in blocks and staying in their lanes. Mississippi State is not a great passing team, but Michigan can’t simply stack the box with a safety to stop the run. Relf tends to lock on his receiver when in the pocket but he excels in getting out from the pocket and zipping the ball into his receivers from there. He will be without his top two receivers (both of whom are injured) but slot receiver Brandon Heavens is good enough to produce against an undisciplined and inexperienced Michigan pass defense. If the linebackers for Michigan don’t get deep enough in their drops, they’ll have a hard time contain Heavens, Chris Smith and Arceto Clark. Ballard and Perkins are also good pass catchers and could be featured to help draw the defense up and give more space for Heavens. The Mississippi State offensive line matches-up well against the Michigan pass rush.

                On the flip side, Michigan’s offense depends almost entirely on the play of quarterback Denard Robinson, who should be healthy for this game. Robnison’s running is the ey to the Michigan offense and he needs to be able to break off a few big runs against a tough Mississippi State defense. If he can do that through the use of the zone read option, then Michigan’s offense can open up somewhat. Runningbacks Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith are capable runners and compliment Robinson’s talents very well. They should be able to keep the Mississippi State defense spread thin when Robinson is running the ball. However, The Bulldog linebackers, Chris White and KJ Wright are very athletic who are good at wrapping up on tackles. Also, the offensive line of Michigan is inconsistent in their blocking assignments, a trait they have to overcome when facing the powerful defensive line of Mississippi State. Robinson has a group of receivers who should be able to find the seams in the Bulldogs zone defense; however that won’t be of any help if Mississippi State is pushing the pocket with their front four and not overcompensating for Robinson’s ability to run. Like I said earlier, Robinson needs to break off a few big runs for this offense to take off.

Prospects to Watch

                Mississippi State

                                Pernell McPhee – Defensive End: Pernell McPhee is a prospect to watch going into the evaluation season following the end of the regular football season. He is a JUCO transfer that has amazing strength and pretty good speed. He’s not fast enough to consistently beat blockers around the edge, but his strength is so great that he can shove the offensive tackle back into the quarterback. He doesn’t have a large variety of pass rush moves and doesn’t have the versatility to be successful standing up. He anchors well against the run and knows how to set the edge against the run. He may be a bit behind in terms of technique, but he has played elite competition and can play defensive end in either 4-3 or a 3-4. That kind of versatility solidifies him as a 3^rd round talent for next year’s draft.

                Michigan

                                Steve Schilling – Offensive guard: Schilling has solid pass blocking technique. He has shown a good feel for when he needs to pass off pass rushers and has a good punch to stop the momentum of on-coming pass rushers. However he isn’t very bulky and struggles to run block. He gives up too much leverage and doesn’t drive defenders off the ball. His awareness also seems to drop, once he is asked to go on the move and drive a defensive lineman off the ball. He is likely to be drafted in the fourth to sixth round.

Final Pick

                Mississippi State – Robinson is a dangerous force, in the Big Ten. I don’t think he’ll do enough of what he needs to do to beat Mississippi State.