GB vs. PHI
This game is all about the pressure. Which team can force more of it, and which team is better prepared to handle it. The Packers have been all about the pass setting up their (very limited) running game. Regardless of how good Matt Flynn looked against the Patriots in his only start, he is not good enough to be able to counter the talented Philadelphia secondary. However, Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have nearly as much trouble dealing with this secondary that is, while talented, very hurt. The Eagles have lost two of their starters in the secondary as well as their middle linebacker to injury, leaving them somewhat lacking in the coverage department. The Eagles need to be able to generate pressure with their front four if they want to disrupt the timing of Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. On the flip side, the Packers not only need to get good pressure from Clay Matthews and Frank Zombo on the outside, but they also need Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji to continue to push the pocket to force Michael Vick to make mistakes. Minnesota laid out a blue print when they knocked Vick around, by using the corner blitz to catch him off guard. Charles Woodson is very good at coming on the blitz and causing turnovers. If the Packers can bring Woodson on the blitz and have solid play by the other corners, they might be able to stop the high-powered, Vick led offense. The Eagles should try and utilize screens as often as they can to pull back the dangerous Packers pass rush. Lesean McCoy and Jerome Harrison are great receivers and dangerous in the open field, as is Desean Jackson. If the Eagles can utilize those screens in the face of the blitz, they have a great chance to break some big plays.
Against the Spread: Philadelphia comes into this game a three point favorite. While their normally explosive offense is dangerous, their defense has been decimated through the entire season by injuries. Talent-wise are still very good defensively, however their lack of depth is concerning when facing the deep Packers receiving corp. I’m still taking the Eagles to win the game, but I’m also taking the points.
NO vs. SEA
Well this certainly doesn’t seem right does it? The 11-5 New Orleans Saints needing to travel to the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs. Well regardless of whether it’s fair or not fair, that is the challenge placed before the Saints in this game. When these teams locked up earlier in the season, the Seahawks were unable to get a single sack and lost by 15 in spite of picking Drew Brees off twice. However this game is far different than that game was. That game was in New Orleans, this one is in Seattle. I know some people would discount the effect that has, however it matters a great deal. First off, you have the wild Seattle crowd, which help make Qwest Field one of the loudest places to play in the NFL. The Saints will need to be very disciplined and aware of the snap count. Secondly, you have the Seattle weather. While rain is far more common than snow, for a dome team like New Orleans, playing in cold rain may be all it takes to throw them out of their comfort zone. Thirdly, there’s the actually travel involved. Going across country is a difficult thing to do when you need to add in the preparation for a football game. Jet-lag may seem like a necessary evil for those who are in other professions, however leaving a football team extra tired and then trying to get them to focus on their own assignments in an already loud environment, it’s more difficult than you would think. Also, in their previous meeting, the Saints still had Chris Ivory healthy and he rushed for 99 yard and a touchdown in that game. Now, both Ivory and Pierre Thomas (the two main runningbacks) are on injured reserve and the Saints need to rely on Reggie Bush and Julius Jones to provide a solid running game. That is not the best group to have faith in. While Bush does provide a good bit of speed and versatility to the position, he doesn’t really show the power necessary to pound the rock in the middle consistently. Jones can pound the middle a little better, key word there being little. The Saints are pretty much going to be one-dimensional in this game, which gives the Seahawks a nice bit of help on the defensive side of the ball.
Against the Spread: For all that text talking about what will be ailing the Saints, you’d think I’d be picking the Seahawks for the win right? Well, even if you did before, the very nature of that question gives away that I won’t. I may be crazy, but crazy ≠ stupid. The Saints (who are favored by 10.5 points) should win this game, however I do think everything I talked about earlier will keep this game closer than most imagine. So I am going to take the points.
BAL vs. KC
This game is going to be an interesting battle of strengths. This game pits the best rushing offense in the NFL (Chiefs) against the 5th best run defense in the NFL (Ravens). I think that aspect of the game will end up getting canceled out because both teams are perfectly aware of how good the other is at countering that particular strength. Instead, I think the Chiefs are going to come out of the gate with numerous play-action fakes and take some shots down the field against the Ravens 21st ranked pas defense. They’ll only go back to the regular running game after loosening up the Ravens defense a bit. While that won’t exactly be easy, because the Ravens are tied for 8th in the NFL in interceptions, the bulk of which come from the return of the best ballhawk in the game today, Ed Reed. However, this too will be battle of strengths because the Chiefs have thrown the third fewest interceptions during the season, only 8. While the Chiefs may not rack up the passing yards like other teams in the NFL, they are very efficient throwing the ball and Dwayne Bowe is a dangerous threat. If the Ravens roll Ed Reed over to help their corners cover Bowe, they can take away the major receiving threat that the Chiefs have, but it’ll also make it easier to run the ball to the opposite side. The ravens will need to rely heavily of the ball of defensive line to limit any backside runs the Chiefs try to pull as the game goes on. That shouldn’t be an issue though, as the Ravens have one of the best sets of defensive lineman in the NFL, regardless of defensive scheme. On the other side, the Chiefs have a good defense that has often been overlooked because of their lack of any one defining characteristic. They’re not particularly great at one aspect of the defensive game, but they are solid at everything. Tamba Hali and Wallace Gilberry have been great at providing a pass rush while Glenn Dorsey and Derrick Johnson have shut down opposing running lanes. The ravens on the other hand have not been terrible offensively, but they have struggled more than usual to run the ball and, in-spite of the weapons they have, their passing game has been stagnate. However, just because they haven’t exploded offensively yet, doesn’t mean they won’t do it at any time. Between Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and Ray Rice, they have enough weapons to punish any team that just tries to stack the box against the run. Rice will still be the focal point of the offense, being the team’s leading rusher as well as the second leading receiver (in terms of receptions). H does a good job getting those tough yards that other runnners may be more hesitant to pursue. If they can keep working the offense through him and using play-action to press the ball downfield, they have a good chance of pulling this out.
Against the Spread: The 3 points the Ravens are favored by feels about right to me. While I do think the Chiefs are a bit underrated in this game, The Ravens are more experienced and are very good at playing on the road. I’m taking them and I’m giving the points.
NYJ vs. IND
This game is all about contrasts, much like it was last season. The Jets come in with a strong running game and defense while the colts bring a powerful passing game and mediocre defense to the table. However, what is drastically different between last postseason’s match-up and this one is that the Colts come into this game woefully under-manned. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are still playing, but that’s about it. Peyton Manning doesn’t have Austin Collie’s clutch catching or Dallas Clark stretching the seam. When it comes down to Jacob Tamme and Blair White tryong to out run the talented Jets pass defense, I’m more than just a little concerned. The return of Joseph Addai helps, as he is a very good passing catching option out of the backfield. However that Jets defense is just too good to allow a great deal of separation. Offensively the Jets just need to keep the ball on the ground, where the Colts have struggled all year to stop opponents. If they control the clock and keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, where he can’t try and pull a miracle, they shouldn’t have a hard time winning this game.
Against the Spread: The Jets should win this game and the home-field advantage that the Colts have is the only thing that makes them a 2.5 point favorite that they are. The Jets just match-up well against them, so I am taking those same Jets for the win and I’m taking the points.
