NFL Week 17 Picks

I went 6-10 last week, bringing my overall to 140-100. I think I just heard my credibility being tossed out a window. I don’t expect to do much better this week, but here we go none the less.

MIA vs. NE

                                 New England has nothing to play for, other than momentum. I doubt we’ll see their offensive starters and key defensive players for more than a half. Miami may not be great, but I think they are better than the New England backups. Miami wins.

                BUF vs. NYJ   

                                 Pretty much the same situation here. The Jets may feel more inclined to play their starters for the entire game, but I doubt they’re going keep them out there for too long. Momentum is nice, but having a healthy team is nicer. The good thing for the Jets is that they have a deep bench and the Bills are hurting. Jets win, even with their backups.

               

                CIN vs. BAL

               

                                 Baltimore has plenty to play for. While they’ve already locked up a spot in the playoffs, they are still competing with Pittsburgh for the AFC North division title and a bye week. They’re not going to take it easy on Cincinnati. Baltimore should win, though Marvin Lewis is pretty much coaching for his job. A three game winning streak to end the season would give him a good chance to keep his job another year.

                OAK vs. KC

                                These teams are very similar in approach to the game. Both use the running game to set up the pass and both are very good at running the ball. Both also play very good defense, though the Chiefs have done a better job with what they have. The Chiefs must feel like they have something to play for, even if they can’t improve their playoff seed. They’ve been riding momentum through the entirety of the season and I don’t think they want to lose that momentum now. The Chiefs will go all out and I think they’ll win.

                PIT vs. CLE

                                 Pittsburgh is in the same situation as Baltimore. They need this win to lock up a bye week, which they may desperately need to allow Troy Polamalu time to recover from his Achilles’ injury. Cleveland has shown plenty during the course of the season, but I don’t think they’ll be able to hold pace today. Pittsburgh wins.

                MIN vs. DET

                                 Detroit has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year…….Stop Laughing! Considering where they were two years ago to have come this far this fast is remarkable. They have been in almost every single game they have played and while they may not have won a lot of those games, they proved that they are ready to become contenders in the NFC North. That being said Minnesota has been playing better of late and I think they may have found at least a stop-gap solution at quarterback with Joe Webb. He hasn’t proven he can be a franchise player, but I think he can hold down the spot for a year or two if they want to wait to see which prospects are available. I’m going to pick Detroit to win though, just on my gut instinct.

                TB vs. NO

                                 This could’ve been the best game of the week, if Tampa Bay was relatively healthy.  However with so many of their defensive starters hurt, I just don’t think they’ll be able to slow down the Saints offense; especially with New Orleans needing this win to have a chance at getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs. New Orleans wins.

                CAR vs. ATL

                                 I feel sorry for John Fox. While he is certainly deserving of losing his job considering the season he has had, it’s just a shame that his team has no chance in his final game. Atlanta needs this win to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and they’re not going to go easy on Carolina. Atlanta wins.

                JAC vs. HOU

                                 Jacksonville is going to be without Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard in this game. While the Texans have the worst pass defense in the NFL, I think they’ll be able to handle Trent Edwards passing the ball. Texans win.

                DAL vs. PHI 

                                 The injuries to the Philadelphia defense has left the Eagles an offensively oriented team. That offense has relied on the play of Michael Vick to keep them explosive, but he will not be playing in this game. I doubt most of the other starters will be playing for long either, since the Eagles have little to play for. I think most of the starters will be out by the second quarter. Dallas wins.

                                               

                CHI vs. GB

                                 This game has ton of implications in the playoffs. Green Bay needs a win to make the playoffs, while the Bears need a win to have a chance at home field advantage. The Bears are flat-out better than the Packers if they don’t pull off the dogs, however they have admitted that they will be watching the scoreboard to see how Atlanta and New Orleans are doing, since they need both of those teams to lose if they want to get home-field advantage. Since I think both Atlanta and New Orleans are going to win, the Bears have no incentive to play their starters for the entire game. The Packers will probably win.  

                ARI vs. SF

                                 I’ve really got nothing here. Both teams are playing for pride. I’m picking Arizona because they haven’t changed coaches recently.

                SD vs. DEN

                                 This is the big test for Tim Tebow, at least for this year. San Diego’s defense is arguably the best defense he is going to face this season. How well he plays in this game determines, at least in my opinion, whether or not he gets a competitor for the starting job next season. He probably will, because I don’t think that Denver will win this game. San Diego will.

                NYG vs. WAS

                                 While the Giants are skidding badly, I’m still of the opinion that they shouldn’t have a hard time beating Rex Grossman. They should also be playing hard since they know that they need to win to have a chance at the playoffs. Giants win.

                TEN vs. IND

                                 Tennessee actually has a good chance to win this game. By this time, the Colts should know whether Jacksonville won or lost. Since Jacksonville is not likely to win their game against Houston, Indianapolis won’t need to play their starters to get into the playoffs. Given the injuries that have been crippling the Colts offense this past few weeks, I think that they won’t want to risk further injuries if they don’t have to. So I’m calling for the Tennessee upset.

                STL vs. SEA *Game of the Week*

                                  You can call this a play-in game all you want, the winner still goes to the playoffs. Both teams are probably going to pull out all the stops, in this fight for a playoff spot. Like I’ve said before, when the NFC West has a division game, I have no clue where to go because logic doesn’t seem to apply to this division. I’m picking the Rams, just because I want an 8-8 team in the playoffs as opposed to the 7-9 Seahawks. 

NFL Week 15 Picks

                I ran my record to 8-8 last week, bringing my overall to 125-83. How can these games be getting harder to pick? What kind of sense does that make? Let’s see if we can find out this week.

     SF vs. SD  

                                 Don’t be fooled by how well the 49ers played last week against the Seahawks; they aren’t going to be able to compete with the Chargers, who have five of their last six games. How typical for the Chargers; making a late season run to try and make the playoffs.

                NO vs. BAL 

                                 In spite of the way the Ravens have played during the Monday Night game, they still won and, appropriately, they won on a defensive play. Oddly enough I think that is what this game is going to come down to, defensive play. As odd as it is to think about, the Saints are playing defense even better now than they did when they won the Super Bowl last year. They no longer rely on the big defensive turnover and are instead actually stopping opponents, as well as making them pay for turning the ball over. While they haven’t been as good at stopping the run as they have the pass, the Ravens haven’t exactly been cramming thee ball down their opponent’s throats, they can run the ball when they need to. It’s a tough call, but I’m going to give it to the Saints, because of their more consistently healthy secondary.

               

                ARI vs. CAR

               

                                 You know what’s worse than trying to predict a game between two good teams? Trying to pick a game between two horrible teams. At least in a game between two good teams, you can nitpick and find weaknesses on either side. But with two bad teams, you’re just trying to find a justification to pick one team over the other and even then you have no clue what could happen. In this case, I actually think Carolina will be the winners, because as badly as their offense has played, their defense has actually played fairly well. I think that consistent play will allow them to win.

                CLE vs. CIN

                                 In spite of both teams losing last week, it’s clear that both of these teams are headed in different directions. The Bengals are just trying to not lose this game (which would bring their losing streak to 11) while the Browns have shown consistent improvement as the season has progressed. I don’t expect to see Cleveland struggle to hang onto the ball the way they did against the Bills. Cleveland should win this game.

                WAS vs. DAL

                                 Don’t think that just because neither of these teams is going to make the playoffs this year that they are going to treat this game like a throwaway. The owners of these teams are going to make sure that their coaches are aware that this is a rivalry game, and that fact matters to them. Dallas has gotten hot in recent weeks and should be able to overcome whatever resistance the Redskins might be able to muster.

                JAC vs. IND

                                 This game comes down to one simple question: Which defense can steps up first, the Colts run defense or the Jags pass defense? Given the multitude of injuries that have ravaged the Colts, I’m giving that win to the Jaguars.

                BUF vs. MIA

                                 While Buffalo still isn’t winning a lot of games, fans of the Bills can take the fact that their players aren’t going quietly into the offseason to heart. It’s the first sign that a team is ready to become a consistent contender. They shouldn’t win this game, since Miami is pushing for a playoff berth and needs every win they can get. Plus I think that Cameron Wake is going to wreak havoc on the inexperienced Bills offensive line. Miami wins.

                PHI vs. NYG*Game of the Week*

                                 This battle between the two best teams in the NFC East comes down to this single question. Will Eli Manning throw the game away? In this game, I don’t think so. While he has thrown a lot of picks this season, he also knows when it’s ok to make mistakes and when not to make mistakes. It also helps that the Eagles can’t keep their defense healthy. The most balanced team in the NFC (Giants) should win this game.

                KC vs. STL

                                 This game is difficult to pin down. As well as the Rams have been playing this season, they haven’t been spectacular at any aspect of the game. Kansas City on the other hand has run the ball well and played good defense, at least up until last week. I’m not willing to say that last week as the beginning of a trend, but let’s see how the Chiefs rebound from that tough loss. I think the Chiefs win.

                DET vs. TB 

                                 Well these two teams have certainly picked themselves up after being the second and third worst teams in the NFL last season. Now you have the Lions playing better than some playoff teams and the Bucs are actually making a playoff push. However, the Bucs have suffered injury after injury in the past three weeks and their defense is down at least four starters. They aren’t going to keep winning with that many starters hurt. I’m giving Detroit the win because of that.

                         

                      

                HOU vs. TEN

                                 *Ding* *Ding* Round Two. In this corner from Samford University, weighing in at 188 pounds, cornerback for the Tennessee Titans, Cortland Finnegan. And in this corner, from Miami (Fl.) University, weighing in at 225 pounds, wide receiver for the Houston Texans, Andre Johnson. Fight.

                                Well, now that I have thoroughly smashed the joke into the ground, let’s talk about the actual game. Sadly there isn’t that much to talk about beyond that joke. The Titans offense doesn’t have much going for it past Chris Johnson and that has everything to do with the fact that Kerry Collins is their starting quarterback. As good as he can be in spot starts, he’s just not someone I would trust going down the stretch, even against bad passing defense like the one the Texans have. Houston wins.

                ATL vs. SEA

                                 This is probably going to be Atlanta’s hardest test before heading into the playoffs. No, I don’t think that has anything to do with how good the Seahawks are, but it has everything to do with where they play. Even in bad years, Qwest Field is one of the toughest stadiums to play in for road teams. Even if the Seahawks are just mediocre like they are this season, the fans in that stadium make it incredibly difficult to play in. Given how much success Atlanta has had at home, this will be a good test to see how they handle a hostile environment on the road. I’m still picking Atlanta to win, but how they perform in this game will tell us a lot about how prepped they’ll be for the playoffs.

                DEN vs. OAK

                                Oakland is making it very hard to write them off, even if they don’t make the playoffs. Denver on the other hand extremely easy to write off. Oakland wins.

                NYJ vs. PIT

                                 Jets fans shouldn’t be so surprised that this is happening. Mark Sanchez came into the NFL with minimal experience as a starter; you had to expect it would take quite a while to get the necessary experience to succeed in the NFL. As the season wares on, his mistakes become more pronounced and more obvious. So in this game against a Steelers defense that has been dominant and is catching its stride, I think it’d be pretty dumb to pick against them. Steelers win.

                GB vs. NE

                                 I don’t care if Aaron Rodgers plays in this game or not, the Packers offense is going to be extremely limited. Concussions ruin quarterbacks, just look at Trent Green. The Patriots are going to win, just as simple as that.

                CHI vs. MIN

                                 I’ll say this much, it’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings adjust to playing outside for the first time in a long time. That is, if they can clean up the field at the University of Minnesota in time. Either way, I still think the Bears should be able to handle the Vikings, unless they have a meltdown of epic proportions.