NFL Week 16 Picks

I went 9-7 last week, bringing my overall to 134-90. There are a lot of good match-ups slated for this week so let’s get right to it.

CAR vs. PIT  

                                 Congratulations to Carolina for winning their second game. As a reward, you get to play one of the best teams in the NFL. Have fun. Pittsburgh wins.

                DAL vs. ARI 

                                 Arizona is as anxious as any to have the regular season end and allow the rebuilding process to begin. However they still have two games left to play and this one against Dallas has got to make them feel like they got coal in their stockings. Dallas should beat on the Cardinals.

               

                NYJ vs. CHI

               

                                 The Jets seem to recover from their several weeks’ long nap in their victory against the Steelers. Now they get to face off against one of the better defenses in the NFL, brought to you by the Bears. The last time we saw the Bears play a team from the AFC East; they were beaten on by the Patriots. I don’t expect the Bears to lose that badly, however I also don’t expect them to win. While the Bears have shown the ability to cause turnovers, they also have a propensity for giveaways. I think that will be their downfall in this game. The Jets win.

                NE vs. BUF

                                 For how good the Bills are able to play, they simply aren’t good enough to compete with the Patriots the way the Patriots are playing right now.

                TEN vs. KC

                                 This duel between run heavy teams is going come down to which team is able to play better defense. Matt Cassell and Kerry Collin are about equal as quarterback when they’re both clicking, so the passing games are going to cancel out somewhat. The real key is which defense is going to be able to step up and contain the opposing offense. While Tennessee has a good rotation of defensive lineman, Kansas City’s defensive front seven have come together to stonewall opposing offensive lines. I’m going to give the win to Kansas City on the basis of that defense.

                WAS vs. JAC

                                 I have never been a big fan of teams switching quarterbacks partway through the season. This goes doubly true when Donovan McNabb is involved. I have no faith in Rex Grossman right now and I am also not of the opinion that the Washington defense is going to be able to stop Maurice Jones-Drew long enough to stay in this game. Jacksonville wins.

                DET vs. MIA

                                 This game should be surprisingly good. I’ve made it clear on numerous occasions that I really like the way Detroit has been playing this season. Miami has had its ups and downs during the course of this season, but the one consent that Miami has been able to count on, is the tremendous pass rush provided by Cameron Wake. If Wake is able to provide pressure on the Detroit quarterbacks, then I think Miami will win. If not, I still think Miami will win, but it will be a much tighter game.

                SF vs. STL

                                 I’m going to try and use logic here, though it has failed me every single time NFC west teams play one another. So, by my logic St. Louis should win this game because they have more to play for so the entire teams should be motivated enough to make up for the failures of Sam Bradford, who has appeared to hit his rookie wall. So I am picking St, Louis. So now the 49ers will win, just because.

                BAL vs. CLE

                                 Cleveland has made some good strides, more than enough to keep Eric Mangini on for another year. However, those strides aren’t going to keep the Ravens from beating down on them.

                HOU vs. DEN 

                                 Well this will be interesting to watch. Tim Tebow gets a shot at the worst pass defense in the league and we will really get a chance to see if he has the ability to throw the ball consistently, or if he needs more time before becoming a starting quarterback. Regardless of how well he throws, the Denver defense cannot pressure the quarterback and I doubt their corners can cover the best receiver in the game for 10 or 20 seconds. Houston wins.

                                               

                IND vs. OAK

                                 This game is really hard for me to pick. While Indianapolis showed that they are still competitive last week, their run defense has been so bad for so much of this season; it’s hard for me to confidently pick them to win against a strong running team like the Raiders. Say what you want about why the Raiders are winning, but one way or another, the Raiders have looked more competitive this year than they have in a very long time. That being said, I think the Colts, in their desperation to make the playoffs are going to find a way to win.

                SD vs. CIN

                                 Cincy surprised a lot of people (me) when they won last week. They seemed to have discovered their running game again, but at the cost of their leading receiver Terrell Owens, who suffered a knee injury. That being said, they’re playing the Chargers in December. The Chargers are practically unbeatable in December. San Diego wins.

                SEA vs. TB

                                 Fortunately for Seattle, they’re facing a Buccaneers team that is absolutely decimated by injuries. The Bucs made a valiant run for the playoffs, but they’re still going to fall short. I’m Seattle the win here.  

                NYG vs. GB

                                 I’ve got admit that Green Bay surprised me last week. I expected them to completely implode without Aaron Rodgers playing at full strength. So I am a little more hesitant to simply dismiss them in this game. I know Aaron Rodgers was cleared fairly early in the week however he shouldn’t have been. After suffering his second concussion during this season, he should have been put on IR. It makes more sense both for Aaron Rodger’s health and for the long-term stability of the Packers if Rodgers doesn’t risk another concussion by playing. This goes doubly true for this season when the Packers finish the season against two of the best defensive teams in the NFL (the Giants and Bears). I still think the game will be close because of the great supporting cast around Rodgers, but that alone will not be enough for them to beat an angry Giants team.

                MIN vs. PHI

                                 Joe Webb is likely to make his second straight start. I think that’s all that needs to be said about this game. Philly wins.

                NO vs. ATL *Game of the Week*

                                 My favorite team in the biggest game they’re going to have this season. Both Atlanta and New Orleans are competing for the NFC South title. Both teams are fairly evenly matched, though I think Atlanta has an edge in rushing the ball. I’m giving this one to the Falcons, because Matt Ryan has lost only one game at home. 

NFL Week 15 Picks

                I ran my record to 8-8 last week, bringing my overall to 125-83. How can these games be getting harder to pick? What kind of sense does that make? Let’s see if we can find out this week.

     SF vs. SD  

                                 Don’t be fooled by how well the 49ers played last week against the Seahawks; they aren’t going to be able to compete with the Chargers, who have five of their last six games. How typical for the Chargers; making a late season run to try and make the playoffs.

                NO vs. BAL 

                                 In spite of the way the Ravens have played during the Monday Night game, they still won and, appropriately, they won on a defensive play. Oddly enough I think that is what this game is going to come down to, defensive play. As odd as it is to think about, the Saints are playing defense even better now than they did when they won the Super Bowl last year. They no longer rely on the big defensive turnover and are instead actually stopping opponents, as well as making them pay for turning the ball over. While they haven’t been as good at stopping the run as they have the pass, the Ravens haven’t exactly been cramming thee ball down their opponent’s throats, they can run the ball when they need to. It’s a tough call, but I’m going to give it to the Saints, because of their more consistently healthy secondary.

               

                ARI vs. CAR

               

                                 You know what’s worse than trying to predict a game between two good teams? Trying to pick a game between two horrible teams. At least in a game between two good teams, you can nitpick and find weaknesses on either side. But with two bad teams, you’re just trying to find a justification to pick one team over the other and even then you have no clue what could happen. In this case, I actually think Carolina will be the winners, because as badly as their offense has played, their defense has actually played fairly well. I think that consistent play will allow them to win.

                CLE vs. CIN

                                 In spite of both teams losing last week, it’s clear that both of these teams are headed in different directions. The Bengals are just trying to not lose this game (which would bring their losing streak to 11) while the Browns have shown consistent improvement as the season has progressed. I don’t expect to see Cleveland struggle to hang onto the ball the way they did against the Bills. Cleveland should win this game.

                WAS vs. DAL

                                 Don’t think that just because neither of these teams is going to make the playoffs this year that they are going to treat this game like a throwaway. The owners of these teams are going to make sure that their coaches are aware that this is a rivalry game, and that fact matters to them. Dallas has gotten hot in recent weeks and should be able to overcome whatever resistance the Redskins might be able to muster.

                JAC vs. IND

                                 This game comes down to one simple question: Which defense can steps up first, the Colts run defense or the Jags pass defense? Given the multitude of injuries that have ravaged the Colts, I’m giving that win to the Jaguars.

                BUF vs. MIA

                                 While Buffalo still isn’t winning a lot of games, fans of the Bills can take the fact that their players aren’t going quietly into the offseason to heart. It’s the first sign that a team is ready to become a consistent contender. They shouldn’t win this game, since Miami is pushing for a playoff berth and needs every win they can get. Plus I think that Cameron Wake is going to wreak havoc on the inexperienced Bills offensive line. Miami wins.

                PHI vs. NYG*Game of the Week*

                                 This battle between the two best teams in the NFC East comes down to this single question. Will Eli Manning throw the game away? In this game, I don’t think so. While he has thrown a lot of picks this season, he also knows when it’s ok to make mistakes and when not to make mistakes. It also helps that the Eagles can’t keep their defense healthy. The most balanced team in the NFC (Giants) should win this game.

                KC vs. STL

                                 This game is difficult to pin down. As well as the Rams have been playing this season, they haven’t been spectacular at any aspect of the game. Kansas City on the other hand has run the ball well and played good defense, at least up until last week. I’m not willing to say that last week as the beginning of a trend, but let’s see how the Chiefs rebound from that tough loss. I think the Chiefs win.

                DET vs. TB 

                                 Well these two teams have certainly picked themselves up after being the second and third worst teams in the NFL last season. Now you have the Lions playing better than some playoff teams and the Bucs are actually making a playoff push. However, the Bucs have suffered injury after injury in the past three weeks and their defense is down at least four starters. They aren’t going to keep winning with that many starters hurt. I’m giving Detroit the win because of that.

                         

                      

                HOU vs. TEN

                                 *Ding* *Ding* Round Two. In this corner from Samford University, weighing in at 188 pounds, cornerback for the Tennessee Titans, Cortland Finnegan. And in this corner, from Miami (Fl.) University, weighing in at 225 pounds, wide receiver for the Houston Texans, Andre Johnson. Fight.

                                Well, now that I have thoroughly smashed the joke into the ground, let’s talk about the actual game. Sadly there isn’t that much to talk about beyond that joke. The Titans offense doesn’t have much going for it past Chris Johnson and that has everything to do with the fact that Kerry Collins is their starting quarterback. As good as he can be in spot starts, he’s just not someone I would trust going down the stretch, even against bad passing defense like the one the Texans have. Houston wins.

                ATL vs. SEA

                                 This is probably going to be Atlanta’s hardest test before heading into the playoffs. No, I don’t think that has anything to do with how good the Seahawks are, but it has everything to do with where they play. Even in bad years, Qwest Field is one of the toughest stadiums to play in for road teams. Even if the Seahawks are just mediocre like they are this season, the fans in that stadium make it incredibly difficult to play in. Given how much success Atlanta has had at home, this will be a good test to see how they handle a hostile environment on the road. I’m still picking Atlanta to win, but how they perform in this game will tell us a lot about how prepped they’ll be for the playoffs.

                DEN vs. OAK

                                Oakland is making it very hard to write them off, even if they don’t make the playoffs. Denver on the other hand extremely easy to write off. Oakland wins.

                NYJ vs. PIT

                                 Jets fans shouldn’t be so surprised that this is happening. Mark Sanchez came into the NFL with minimal experience as a starter; you had to expect it would take quite a while to get the necessary experience to succeed in the NFL. As the season wares on, his mistakes become more pronounced and more obvious. So in this game against a Steelers defense that has been dominant and is catching its stride, I think it’d be pretty dumb to pick against them. Steelers win.

                GB vs. NE

                                 I don’t care if Aaron Rodgers plays in this game or not, the Packers offense is going to be extremely limited. Concussions ruin quarterbacks, just look at Trent Green. The Patriots are going to win, just as simple as that.

                CHI vs. MIN

                                 I’ll say this much, it’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings adjust to playing outside for the first time in a long time. That is, if they can clean up the field at the University of Minnesota in time. Either way, I still think the Bears should be able to handle the Vikings, unless they have a meltdown of epic proportions.