The Rams and Leverage

As the combine is coming up quickly, there has been a lot of talk about the draft prospects and where they could end up etc. Inevitably with this, will come the discussion about Robert Griffin III and which teams may trade up to get him. 

Robert Griffin III is being viewed as the second best quarterback in this year's draft, mostly because of his strong arm and impressive athleticism. Many are drawing comparisons to Cam Newton when they talk about RGIII's pro potential. While I certainly think that's more of an insult than a complement, it's gotten him a lot of press leading up to the draft. 

The most interesting part about these discussions really isn’t how good RGIII could be or who would want to go get him, it’s the leverage discussion. It’s fascinating to see how each team will try to outbid the others and how they could react to each different move that other teams try to make.

Now any discussion like this has to involve St. Louis, since it has the pick everyone wants, #2 overall. Since they own the pick and can do whatever they want with it, the Rams have a ton of leverage. Or so it would seem. Should they keep it, they have their choice of elite prospects and can help any aspect of their game they would want to. However, if they stand pat and don’t trade the pick, they can only address one need. In a way, they need to trade the pick more than the teams looking at RGIII need to acquire it.

With that in mind, the Rams have a number of suitors they could consider. Teams like Seattle, Washington, Miami, Cleveland, New York and even Kansas City would have some interest in pursuing RGIII due to its own respective quarterback situation. Each one would need to seriously examine its priorities and the severity of its problems before making a move like this though. Of course, each one has a very different level of leverage as well.

Let’s just start with the teams least likely to make this move.  Kansas City may have some interest in getting a dynamic quarterback to go with a strong set of skill position players and defense. However, they’re a little too low in the draft order for St. Louis to consider them a viable trade partner, at least not unless the package was considerably better than the competitor offers. That would probably have to be in the range of three first round picks. That’s too much for a team like Kansas City to give up on a chance, especially when Matt Cassell is not a terrible quarterback.

Seattle has a bigger need at quarterback, but even less ammo to work with. It’d also have to give the farm and probably some of their young building blocks to get a chance at RGIII.

The Jets may have the weakest ammo of all, drafting in the middle of the first round, but it has had a history of making moves like this. They did it the 2009 draft when they traded with the Browns to go get Mark Sanchez. However, the regime there is in a win now mode and aren’t going to be able to wait for RGIII to develop.

Miami’s quarterback problems are well known. The Dolphins have been looking for a quarterback since Dan Marino retired over a decade ago. It stands to reason that they would be very interested in RGIII. However there are two things that make me think they won’t really be close to acquiring St. Louis’ pick. The first reason is their leverage. Like Seattle, Kansas City and New York, Miami sits on the lower end of the top half of the draft, leaving it very little to offer beyond future first round draft picks. That position just doesn’t offer a lot of leverage for the Dolphins to use. Reason two is their new head coach, Joe Philbin. Philbin’s relationship with free agent quarterback Matt Flynn makes it far more likely that Miami will commit to Flynn than try for a rookie.

Washington is a team that makes a lot of sense in terms of being a trade partner. The Redskins have needed a quarterback for a long time and their owner Dan Snyder has always been willing to make a big move in order to build his team. While they do have other needs, the Redskins are a team that needs to address the quarterback position first and build from there. It also helps that the Redskins coach Mike Shanahan has shown the ability to draft good players later in the draft. The only snag is that the 6^th overall pick may just be too low for the Rams to accept. With RGIII gone, the other players the Rams could be considering, Justin Blackmon, Matt Kalil, Morris Claiborne, etc. could all be gone by the sixth pick. It’s something the Rams will be considering if they are trying to make the trade with the Redskins.

The ideal trade partner for the Rams would be the Browns. The Browns have a pair of first round picks this year, as well as a multitude of other picks in the first three rounds acquired from the Julio Jones trade last year. The trade would also leave the Rams in a position to get almost whoever they wanted, while acquiring more picks for more quality players. However, all that being said, there is a big problem with this. Why would the Browns make this trade? Even if the Browns really like RGIII, all indications are the Rams and Vikings have no legitimate interest in him, leaving no team who would take him before the Browns at pick #4. So the Browns would end up giving up numerous picks including at least one more first round pick this year to go and get a player they could’ve gotten without making a trade at all? That just doesn’t make sense.

This is where the leverage arguments become extremely interesting. The only argument that the Rams can use to provoke the Browns into making this trade is that the Redskins have a legitimate chance at getting the pick. They also have to hope that the Browns covet RGIII enough to sell the rest of their draft for him. The Browns however, can call their bluff on this because the Browns can make a serious improvement even if they lose RGIII. The Browns have also proved very adept at trading back and still getting quality players in recent years; see the Mark Sanchez and Julio Jones trades. So it’s entirely possible the Rams could keep the second overall pick and the Browns trade back with a team like Seattle or New York for RGIII. Granted I think this is less likely with #4 pick and more likely with the #22 pick, but it’s still a possibility.

Then there’s Minnesota. All reports are that it has no real interest in RGIII, but great interest in Matt Kalil for the #3 pick. With this assumption in place, the Rams are trying to move back. But let’s say for a moment, that the Vikings decide instead to go with Justin Blackmon at #3, while the Rams are stuck at #6. Then, while Matt Kalil is available and of value, the Browns are set at left tackle and the Buccaneers are happy with their left tackle. One or both teams could try and trade back, leaving the Rams again with a complicated selection and lost potential trade partners. Should the Vikings do something very unexpected, the whole draft could be turned on its ear.

Ultimately, I think this comes down to a game of chicken between the Rams and Browns. Whether the Rams take a lesser deal to move down or the Browns give up the farm to go and get RGIII, both teams will be taking a risk. In my mind, the Browns really do have the more favorable position, because if they miss on RGIII, they can address a variety of other needs with top picks, while the Rams need to stay in contention for those picks. It also helps that the Browns have the extra picks the Rams want. Then again, I also like Colt McCoy as their starter a lot more than most, so I feel like RGIII is not someone they would go hard after either way. In the end, the Browns win whether they make a trade or not, while the Rams are almost obligated to trade the pick if they want to make serious improvements.