I went 16-3 last week, putting me at 156-45 for the season. This week should be very interesting to watch with five games between BCS ranked teams and seven games between teams with similar records. This should be fun to watch. Let’s get right into the picks.
Washington @ #1 Oregon
Washington couldn’t hang with Stanford. Last I checked Oregon ran rough shot over Stanford. So, I’m going to say that Oregon will destroy Washington.
Chattanooga (Tennessee) @ #2 Auburn
Chattanooga has a pretty mediocre record in D-1aa. I don’t think they’ll be able to keep pace with Auburn. Just a hunch.
#3 TCU @ #5 Utah *Game of the Week*
This is undoubtedly the best matchup of the week. Not only are the two best teams in the Mountain West facing off, but both of these teams are fighting for a spot in a BCS bowl game, if not the national title. Both teams are great offensively and defensively, both ranking in the top ten in the country in scoring offense and defense. Utah may have an advantage in that they are playing at home, but I think TCU has the bigger advantage with their defense, which is ranked number one overall in the country in scoring defense. While Utah is ranked 3rd in the country in scoring offense, they don’t have a true identity on offense. They find ways to balance their rushing and passing enough to score a lot of points, but I don’t they are dominant enough in either area to compete against the TCU defense. TCU wins.
Hawaii @ #4 Boise State
Well, I certainly didn’t expect this game to have any relevance coming into the season. Hawaii has been surprisingly good this year, going so far as to rank first in the country in passing and eleventh in scoring. But here’s the thing, Boise State still ranks 3rd in the nation in scoring defense. I don’t think they’re going to suddenly fall apart defensively as they enter the final month of games. Boise wins this game and further solidify their place as the best team in the country (regardless of where these rankings list them.)
#6 Alabama @#10 LSU
In spite of losing to Auburn, LSU is still a dangerous team to face and a real contender for the top spot in the SEC. This game will ultimately come down to which team’s defense can contain the opposing team’s offense. In that regard I think Alabama has the edge. LSU’s offense is very one-dimensional and is not likely to overcome the dominant defense of Alabama. Bama wins.
#7 Nebraska @ Iowa State
While Iowa State has pulled off some impressive victories this season, I don’t think that they can handle the dominant Nebraska offense. Nebraska should win, but Iowa State has surprised me in the past.
#8 Oklahoma @ Texas A&M
Texas A&M has been very disappointing against top quality opponents this season. I doubt they’ll be able to buck that trend this week against the high powered Oklahoma offense. Sooners win.
#9 Wisconsin @ Purdue
With all the injuries that have been plaguing the Boilermakers this season, it’s ridiculous to think that they’ll be able to beat what I think is the best team in the Big Ten. Badgers win.
#11 Ohio State: Bye
#12 Missouri @ Texas Tech
Texas Tech has been surprisingly mediocre this season. I say surprisingly because when Texas Tech fired Mike Leach, I expected their offense (as well as their record) to dip drastically. However, they have been playing at almost the same level they were previously. I still don’t think they’ll be able to beat Missouri.
#15 Arizona @ #13 Stanford
This is another great matchup. You have the fifth best scoring offense in the country in Stanford playing the seventh best scoring defense in the country in Arizona. I have a really hard time deciding which team should win this game. If Nick Foles (the Arizona QB) was a lock to play I’d probably go with Arizona. As it stands with that uncertainty, I’m going to say that Stanford pulls out the win. I’m rooting for Arizona though.
Minnesota @ #14 Michigan State
This is just the break that Michigan State needs after being defeated by Iowa. They should win this game with ease.
#16 Iowa @ Indiana
Indiana has been no slouch this season. However, that hardly means they’ll be able to compete with the talented Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa wins.
#21 Baylor @ #17 Oklahoma State
This is another game that I think few people would have noted as being pivotal to the Big 12 title race coming into this season. However both teams have come a long way and are legitimate contenders for a conference title. While Oklahoma State is the better offensive team, Robert Griffin III has been clutch and has stepped up his production against the tougher opponents. I think because of this, I’m going to give the edge to Baylor.
#18 Arkansas @ #19 South Carolina
Maybe the tightest matchup of the weekend, there will be a lot of questions about whether or not the South Carolina defense will be able to contain Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas passing offense. I think that they will and their rushing offense led by Marcus Lattimore will be able to control the clock, preventing Ryan Mallett from having a big game. I’m picking South Carolina to pull the upset.
#20 Mississippi State: Bye
Georgia Tech @ #22 Virginia Tech
Tonight’s game between two of the better teams in the ACC, this game will be an old fashioned rushing slugfest. However, while Georgia Tech is still a very good team, I don’t think their offense is at the point to where it can compete with the Virginia Tech defense. I’m giving this game to Virginia Tech.
#23 Nevada @ Idaho
Idaho is a mediocre team fighting for another bowl berth. They’re facing the dominant Nevada Wolfpack, who should maul Idaho’s defense on the ground. Needless to say, Nevada wins.
North Carolina @ #24 Florida State
Like with their game two weeks ago against Miami (Fl.), these are the games where all of the suspensions are going to hurt North Carolina’s chances of winning. Playing on the road against the very talented Seminoles, I think that North Carolina will be put in place as the mediocre team they are without their most talented players. Florida State wins.
#25 North Carolina State @ Clemson
Clemson has been playing better than their record would indicate and have a good deal of experience in pulling upsets against big time opponents. However, their offense has been incredibly inconsistent this season they’re coming off an incredibly disappointing loss against Boston College. NC State on the other hand a very good offense, that can make plays when they need to, and a defense that isn’t too shabby either. I think the Wolfpack will be able to make enough clutch plays to beat the Tigers this week. NC State wins.
Other Games of Note
UCF @ Houston
Probably the biggest matchup in Conference USA this season, these teams combine for a single loss in conference play. This game features perhaps the most diametrically opposed teams in the country. Houston is great at passing and is top ten in the country in scoring offense, while UCF is dominant in running the ball and has a great defense. Considering these facts, I’m going to go with the ball control and defensive oriented UCF. It also helps them that Case Keenum is out for the season and I think that loss really hurts Houston against better teams like UCF.
Illinois @ Michigan
This game is oddly intriguing for me. After a great start, Michigan has fallen on hard times, not winning one of their last three games. Illinois has somehow pulled together a decent record though a good defense and rushing offense. I don’t think Illinois will be able to contain Denard Robinson, but they have played well to this point in the season and they could surprise me. I’m still picking Michigan to win though.
Air Force @ Army
This game should be dominated by the rushing game, since both teams rank in the top ten in the nation in rushing offense. Momentum is definitely with Army, since Air Force has lost three straight coming into this game, but it should also be noted that every time Army has played a good team, they have been stomped. Knowing these facts, I’m going to give the edge to Air Force, because they have at least been able to be to be competitive against good teams, while Army seems less able to deal with tough opponents. Air Force wins.
Maryland @ Miami (Fl.)
There’s an interesting set offense anomaly going on in this game. Maryland ranks horribly (86th and 81st respectively) in both passing and rushing yards, but ranks fairly well (37th) in scoring offense. On the other hand, Miami’s offense rankings in passing and rushing are respectable (49th and 42nd respectively). But they’re only 55th in scoring offense. It’s interesting difference. Both teams are top 30 in the country in scoring defense, meaning this will likely be a defensive battle. If that turns out to be the case, I am going with Miami, just on the basis of overall defensive talent.
Navy @ East Carolina
Much like the UCF/Houston game, this game features a ground and pound team (Navy) traveling to face a high-flying spread offense that puts up a lot of points (East Carolina). While I went with the team that focused on running the ball and defense in that game, East Carolina is not missing their starting quarterback and leader and has shown the ability to pull big upsets. I’m going with the Pirates in this one, though Navy could surprise.
Top 10 Heisman Candidates
1. Kellen Moore – Is coming off extended rest week. Still the best player in the country.
2. Cameron Newton – Was efficient and good against Mississippi, but that isn’t jumping him over Moore. Trying doing it against Alabama, then we’ll talk.
3. Andrew Luck – Luck had a good game in a dominant win over Washington. He may not have the best numbers and will probably drop next week if he doesn’t have an absolutely dominating performance against Arizona.
4. LaMichael James – Another typical dominant game from LaMichael James. Doing it against USC also puts a lot more weight behind those numbers. I can’t deny him his spot in the top five any more.
5. Robert Griffin III – While it can be argued that his numbers against Texas weren’t good enough to put him in this spot, you have to remember that he did this against Texas. A Texas team that has beaten the tar out of Baylor for the past 13 years. Even if Texas hasn’t been playing up to their own standard, it’s still a huge win for a team and a quarterback looking to establish a reputation of respectability in the Big 12.
6. Colin Kaepernick – Played well last week, showing his typical efficient passing and dominant running in the win over Utah State.
7. Justin Blackmon – Was suspended last game, but has the numbers and the talent to remain here for at least another week.
8. Terrelle Pryor – He played fairly well against a bad Minnesota team, but his numbers are no longer eye-popping and the loss against Wisconsin really hurt his cause. He needs a huge game or two in order to find his way back into the top five.
9. John Clay – Was on a bye week last week, but his standing in overall yards is starting to hurt his cause. I still think he deserves his spot, but he needs a couple big games to work his way back up.
10. Russell Wilson – Much like Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson can almost be attributed as the single most valuable player in the country. While he did have a bad game against East Carolina, he returned from that defeat and led the Wolfpack to a big victory over Florida State, being involved in every touchdown along the way (one passing, three rushing). He may not really be Heisman material at the end of the season, but for this one week, I am going to give him the recognition he deserves.
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