I went 13-8 last week, putting me at 169-53 for the season. I missed on a lot of games and gave way too much credit to certain teams. Oh well, another week another chance to be right. Let’s get to the picks.
#1 Oregon @ California
While California hasn’t been horrible this season, they certainly aren’t good enough to compete with dominant Oregon offense. Ducks win.
Georgia @ #2 Auburn
Much like the previous matchup, this game pits a mediocre team against one of the best teams in the country in a conference matchup. I doubt that Georgia will be able to keep pace with Auburn.
San Diego State @ #3 TCU
San Diego State has really come into their own in Brady Hoke’s second season as head coach. Their passing offense is very strong; however they’re facing one of the most dominating defensive teams in the country. I doubt TCU wills tumble this close to the finish line. Horned Frogs win.
#4 Boise State @Idaho
Idaho has not been nearly has good as they were a year ago. Even then they weren’t a match for Boise State. Boise State wins.
Louisiana-Monroe @#5 LSU
How can LSU still be able to face mediocre Sun Belt teams this late in the season? LSU wins.
#6 Stanford @ Arizona State
Arizona State simply isn’t in the same league as Stanford. The Cardinals should win easily.
Indiana @ #7 Wisconsin
Wisconsin should have little trouble beating down Indiana, who is winless in conference play. Badgers roll.
Kansas @ #8 Nebraska
If Kansas fans weren’t missing Todd Reesing earlier in the year, they certainly are now. Nebraska should have little problem slicing though the Jayhawks defense. Cornhuskers win.
Penn State @ #9 Ohio State
Penn State has decided to change quarterbacks in the interest of trying to spark their offense. It may workout down the line, but I don’t think it’ll help much this week. Ohio State wins.
#10 Oklahoma State @ Texas
Texas has been down this year and I don’t expect them to come alive in this game. They could pull an upset, but it would greatly surprise me if they did. Okie Doke State wins.
#11 Michigan State: Bye
#19 Mississippi State @ #12 Alabama
Mississippi State has been playing very well this season, in spite of having a pathetic passing offense. Much of this is due to their dominating defense which has kept opponents from running up the score while they pound the rock. Alabama has done much of the same thing, except that they’re a bit more balanced offensively. What it comes down to in the end is a defensive battle and in that, I have to give that edge to Alabama. That edge has a lot everything to do with the experience they have at being successful.
#13 Iowa @ Northwestern
While Northwestern is playing fairly well and will probably end up in a Bowl game this season, Iowa’s defensive talent is too great for the Wildcats to overcome. Iowa wins.
#14 Utah @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame has lost their starting quarterback and has overall been mediocre this season. Utah may be coming off a loss, but they are far from a bad team and should be able to dominate the Irish. Needless to say, Utah wins.
UTEP @ #15 Arkansas
UTEP has been disappointing within their own conference; I doubt they’ll be able to push the tough Razorbacks even close to the brink of defeat. Arkansas wins.
Texas Tech @ #16 Oklahoma
Even at their best, Texas Tech has not been able to compete consistently with Oklahoma. This game should be no different. Oklahoma wins.
#24 Kansas State @ #17 Missouri
Another interesting offensive match up. Kansas State has a dominant rushing offense and Missouri has one of the best passing offenses in the country. However, while both teams have good offenses, I don’t think this will be a shootout. Missouri has one of the best scoring defenses in the country and I think that is going to be the difference in this game. Missouri wins.
USC @ #18 Arizona
While some may be calling for an upset here, I don’t think it’ll happen. While both teams have very good offenses, USC’s defense has been mediocre at best this season while Arizona’s is simply dominant. I think this will ultimately be a mismatch and Arizona will roll over USC.
#20 Virginia Tech @ North Carolina
While North Carolina has pulled some big upsets this season, I don’t think they’ll be able to contain the Virginia Tech offense. Virginia Tech has returned to form after a poor start to the season and should have few problems beating down North Carolina.
#21 Nevada @ Fresno State
This is definitely one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend. Both teams trail Boise State in the conference title race and both teams face Boise State in the two weeks following this game. So, both teams are looking for momentum going into that matchup, hoping to knock Boise State off their pedestal. Also, both teams have only suffered one loss in conference, that being against Hawaii. SO there is clearly a lot riding on this game. However the matchup itself is a bit more lopsided than the circumstances surrounding it. Fresno State just doesn’t compare in any major statistical way to Nevada, leading me to believe that Nevada should win. However, Fresno State has never backed down from a tough opponent before and I doubt they’ll do so now.
#23 South Carolina @ #22 Florida *Game of the Week*
While neither of these teams are going to be competing for an SEC title this year, both are building for the future and will be teams to watch next year. Both have strong running games and almost counter intuitively, the Gamecocks have the superior passing game. Both also feature good defenses, though Florida has the clear advantage in that regard, however I think South Carolina has the advantage with their ball control offense and strong defense. I’m giving them the win.
#25 Texas A&M @ Baylor
Just as Baylor is starting to build momentum, they lose one of their biggest games of the year. Now they come in against a team that has a similar offensive style, but sporting a quarterback who is more prone to turning the ball over, as well as running when he is in trouble. The Baylor defense will need to step up if they are going to win this game, but they should be able to keep up offensively. I’m calling for the upset here and saying Baylor wins.
Other Games of Note
Miami (Fl.) @ Georgia Tech
After a big win last week, Miami has developed a bit of a quarterback controversy. While the injured Jacory Harris is still the official starting quarterback, his backup Stephen Morris has played very well in his stead and gained the support of the Miami fan base. Georgia Tech has fallen on relatively hard times, being mediocre is not something that Paul Johnson teams are used to. This matchup should be interesting to watch, but I’m still giving the edge to Miami with their strong defense.
Southern Mississippi @ UCF
One of the key Conference USA matchups this weekend, long time conference powerhouse Southern Miss may be overmatched against UCF. While Southern Miss does have the more balanced offense, they also have the inferior defense when compared to UCF. Even having the more balanced offense doesn’t mean too much when facing the dominant defense of UCF. It’ll be interesting to watch, but UCF has a clear advantage and I’m picking them to win.
Clemson @ Florida State
This game is interesting in the contrasts of styles that each team brings to the table. Clemson relies almost entirely on their defense to them in the game while Florida State has a pretty good offense to go with their good defense. That should give Florida State the advantage; however Clemson still has the best pass rusher in the country right now, De’Quan Bowers on their side. I think that player by himself gives Clemson a good chance to win, because he can be so disruptive. I’m calling for Clemson to pull the upset.
Tulsa @ Houston
This game should what you see when you look up the word “Shootout” in the dictionary. Neither team has a very good defense, sport top twenty ranked offenses. Both focus on their passing game, use spread offenses and try to keep opposing defenses off balance by keeping their offense very up tempo. When your offense operates like that, it’s important to have a good quarterback and that’s where there’s a big difference between these teams. Houston is operating with their third string quarterback while Tulsa has their star, G.J. Kinne, still starting. That’s why I’m giving the edge to Tulsa in this game. However Houston and David Piland has surprised me before so they could do so again.
Top 10 Heisman Candidates
1. Kellen Moore – Is there any reason to drop him down the list?
2. LaMichael James – James had another typically great game, though that’s not saying much against Washington.
3. Andrew Luck –Had yet another very efficient and good game. May not be as statically great as some, but has led his team very effectively.
4. Cameron Newton – While he had a good game, all of the stories cropping up since last week has severely hurt his chances. Voters just don’t like players who took perceived short cuts.
5. Justin Blackmon – Returned from suspension while a typically great game. Definitely the most explosive player in college football right now.
6. Colin Kaepernick – Had a great game against Idaho and continues to be a great dual threat quarterback.
7. Robert Griffin III – In spite of having a bad game against Oklahoma State, the season he has been having is still been more important than most other who could appear on this list. If he wasn’t playing Baylor would be struggling to reach mediocrity, instead of pushing the best teams in the conference. That’s why he stays, for now at least.
8. Andy Dalton – After weeks of being off the list due to unspectacular play, he is starting to heat up. The success against Utah boosts his case greatly.
9. Brandon Weeden – At some point the success that Weeden has had needs to be acknowledged. However his case is hurt by the fact that Justin Blackmon has been so dominant this season.
10. Vai Taua – Much like Weeden, Taua’s case is hurt by the fact that Kaepernick has been so good. However, also like Weeden, his stats can’t simply be ignored.
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