Top 25 Heisman Candidates
1. Kellen Moore – Strong at the start, strong to the finish; Kellen Moore is the best quarterback in the country.
2. Terrelle Pryor – Strong performance against Marshall started his Heisman run. A similar performance against Miami could jump him ahead of Moore.
3. Case Keenum – The stats monster keeps on trucking.
4. John Clay – Good dominating performance against UNLV.
5. Dion Lewis – Despite a poor performance, he’s not going to face Utah’s defense every week.
6. Ryan Mallett – Solid game.
7. Matt Barkley – Equally solid game.
8. Andrew Luck – Amazingly good performance; continuing this against stronger opponents will jump him over the previous three contenders.
9. Jacory Harris – Extremely efficient performance, a great game against Ohio State will shoot him to the top.
10. Christian Ponder – Really surprised me this past week. Another game like that against Oklahoma would the same effect as Jacory Harris performing well against Ohio State.
11. Jerrod Johnson – Strong performance. Going under the radar.
12. Jake Locker – Did nothing to help or hinder his cause.
13. Ryan Williams – Would not be here if not for his three total touchdowns. Needs a big game tostay in line.
14. Blaine Gabbert – Typical game for Gabbert.
15. DeMarco Murray – One of the best rushing performances of the week, Murray stays this low, because he wasn’t on the list previously.
16. Daniel Thomas – Same situation as Murray.
17. Colin Kaepernick – Same situation as Locker
18. Josh Nesbitt – Great rushing performance, needs more passing to improve his chances.
19. Tyrod Taylor – Surprised me with how well he could pass the ball.
20. Kendall Hunter – Exceptionally dominant performance, brings images of his former performances back. If he can be consistent, huge leaps should be expected on this list.
21. Landry Jones – Performed as well as expected.
22. Julio Jones – Didn’t suffer from McElroy’s deficiencies, surprisingly.
23. B.J. Daniels – Played very well and benefitted from poor early performances from other contenders.
24. G.J. Kinne – Delivered the way G.J. Kinne can. Dominant performance. The loss does hurt his cause though.
25. Dominique Davis – Evenly dominant performance, this time with a big win. I don’t think he can be consistent enough to stay on this list, but this is some recognition for his performance.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Week 1 NFL Picks
MIN vs. NO
Don’t expect to see the same game you saw in the NFC Championship game a year ago. Minnesota’s receiving core has been ravished by injuries and New Orleans secondary has lost their leader (Sidney Rice and Darren Sharper missing at least six games each). The difference in this game will be Drew Brees, who has risen past Tom Brady, and only tails Peyton Manning, as one of the top 2 quarterbacks in the NFL right now. I’m picking New Orleans to win solely on their ability to outscore the Vikings with Brees at the helm. Don’t expect this to be a common theme however; this New Orleans defense needs to prove to me that they were anything but a one year wonder.
CLE vs. TB
This is a really good match-up; not because it will be terribly exciting to watch, but because it allows both participating teams to play an opponent that is evenly matched against them, at least on paper. Sometimes when a team is trying to make the transition from being bad to being mediocre, if they are facing a great team in the first week, their confidence gets shattered and they never recover. With this game, both teams get the opportunity to build some confidence and take steps forward without doubting the direction their taking. I’m picking Cleveland to win, mostly because of Aqib Talib’s suspension, but I think both teams can be winners if the game is close.
MIA vs. BUF
This game is very similar to the previous game I previewed, except that Buffalo is not trying to go in a definite direction like Tampa Bay or Cleveland. Miami should be able to get a good rhythm going between Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall in what should be a good win.
CIN vs. NE
Now this game will be very interesting to watch. New England is desperately trying to regain the form they had when they were winning Super Bowls and going 17-0. Sadly for them, the Bengals have been doing a much better job of building their team, especially using the draft to build their defense. I don’t know about anyone else, but I was very impressed with how much pressure the Bengals defense was able to get during the preseason. Maybe it’s just the preseason being the preseason, but it’s enough for me to give the Bengals the slight edge in this game.
IND vs. HOU
Watch this game closely. While Indy is probably winning, how well Houston plays against them will let us fans know how far they’ve come and how far they could go.
DEN vs. JAC
I really pity Broncos fans. They have an arrogant coach with little to no clue what he’s doing and have lost the majority of the talent they had leading into the season. Without Elvis Dumervil, I just don’t think that the defense can keep the offense in the game, Jacksonville wins.
ATL vs. PIT
With Dennis Dixon being the starter for this game, it would seem obvious to pick Atlanta for the win. However last year’s game he started against Baltimore showed that he is pretty good, when the Steelers gameplan around his talents. I’m still picking Atlanta to win this game; it’s just going to be closer than most think.
OAK vs. TEN
While Oakland is taking steps forward, they really won’t show themselves in this game. Tennessee should show all the reasons that they are my surprise team in the AFC this season.
CAR vs. NYG
Two teams that seem to be taking steps back. While I think that the Giants will have a better season than the Panthers, I think the Panthers’ defense will be able to slow the Giants’ offense just enough to pull out the win.
DET vs. CHI
While I am really tempted to pick Detroit for the upset, I’m just not that bold. I’ll put it this way; Detroit has taken enough steps forward over the last two years for me to see them winning six to eight games. I just don’t have the guts to pick them to defeat the Bears while their secondary is this unproven.
ARI vs. STL
In-spite of my doubts about Derek Anderson, St. Louis is still nowhere near good enough to compete with Arizona. Cardinals win.
GB vs. PHI
A year ago, this game would have been a shoot-out. This year, it’ll likely be a bit off a blowout. I do not like Kevin Kolb’s chances of having a great game against the Packers dominant defense, or at least not against Charles Woodson. I’m giving the Packers the victory in this game.
SF vs. SEA
The Seahawks are trying desperately to not fall into the category of a rebuilding team, even though they fell into that category since releasing Shaun Alexander. San Fran has actually rebuilt quite well, and should win this game handily.
DAL vs. WAS
While I think Donovan McNabb is going to help the Redskins improve, I don’t think the supporting cast is there quite yet. Especially with the rift between the coaching staff and Albert Haynesworth likely leading to his being traded or released at some point this season. Dallas is going to win this one.
BAL vs. NYJ *GAME OF THE WEEK*
Two teams that are almost perfectly matched. Both have dominant defenses. Both have a strong running presence. Both have young quarterbacks who have experience great success early in their careers. The only real difference between these two teams is that last part; one team has a quarterback who is a legitimate raising star (Joe Flacco), the other has a quarterback who is the product of a system (Mark Sanchez). Also, I think the Jets may have neutered their own running game by releasing Alan Faneca and are relying on first time starter Matt Slauson to be the dominant run-blocking force. I don’t like the chances of Slauson being able to hold down the dominant force of Haloti Ngata. For this reason, as well as the mistake waiting to happen that is Mark Sanchez (at this point in his career), I’m picking the Ravens to win.
SD vs. KC
This game isn’t very hard to pick. Chargers win.
Don’t expect to see the same game you saw in the NFC Championship game a year ago. Minnesota’s receiving core has been ravished by injuries and New Orleans secondary has lost their leader (Sidney Rice and Darren Sharper missing at least six games each). The difference in this game will be Drew Brees, who has risen past Tom Brady, and only tails Peyton Manning, as one of the top 2 quarterbacks in the NFL right now. I’m picking New Orleans to win solely on their ability to outscore the Vikings with Brees at the helm. Don’t expect this to be a common theme however; this New Orleans defense needs to prove to me that they were anything but a one year wonder.
CLE vs. TB
This is a really good match-up; not because it will be terribly exciting to watch, but because it allows both participating teams to play an opponent that is evenly matched against them, at least on paper. Sometimes when a team is trying to make the transition from being bad to being mediocre, if they are facing a great team in the first week, their confidence gets shattered and they never recover. With this game, both teams get the opportunity to build some confidence and take steps forward without doubting the direction their taking. I’m picking Cleveland to win, mostly because of Aqib Talib’s suspension, but I think both teams can be winners if the game is close.
MIA vs. BUF
This game is very similar to the previous game I previewed, except that Buffalo is not trying to go in a definite direction like Tampa Bay or Cleveland. Miami should be able to get a good rhythm going between Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall in what should be a good win.
CIN vs. NE
Now this game will be very interesting to watch. New England is desperately trying to regain the form they had when they were winning Super Bowls and going 17-0. Sadly for them, the Bengals have been doing a much better job of building their team, especially using the draft to build their defense. I don’t know about anyone else, but I was very impressed with how much pressure the Bengals defense was able to get during the preseason. Maybe it’s just the preseason being the preseason, but it’s enough for me to give the Bengals the slight edge in this game.
IND vs. HOU
Watch this game closely. While Indy is probably winning, how well Houston plays against them will let us fans know how far they’ve come and how far they could go.
DEN vs. JAC
I really pity Broncos fans. They have an arrogant coach with little to no clue what he’s doing and have lost the majority of the talent they had leading into the season. Without Elvis Dumervil, I just don’t think that the defense can keep the offense in the game, Jacksonville wins.
ATL vs. PIT
With Dennis Dixon being the starter for this game, it would seem obvious to pick Atlanta for the win. However last year’s game he started against Baltimore showed that he is pretty good, when the Steelers gameplan around his talents. I’m still picking Atlanta to win this game; it’s just going to be closer than most think.
OAK vs. TEN
While Oakland is taking steps forward, they really won’t show themselves in this game. Tennessee should show all the reasons that they are my surprise team in the AFC this season.
CAR vs. NYG
Two teams that seem to be taking steps back. While I think that the Giants will have a better season than the Panthers, I think the Panthers’ defense will be able to slow the Giants’ offense just enough to pull out the win.
DET vs. CHI
While I am really tempted to pick Detroit for the upset, I’m just not that bold. I’ll put it this way; Detroit has taken enough steps forward over the last two years for me to see them winning six to eight games. I just don’t have the guts to pick them to defeat the Bears while their secondary is this unproven.
ARI vs. STL
In-spite of my doubts about Derek Anderson, St. Louis is still nowhere near good enough to compete with Arizona. Cardinals win.
GB vs. PHI
A year ago, this game would have been a shoot-out. This year, it’ll likely be a bit off a blowout. I do not like Kevin Kolb’s chances of having a great game against the Packers dominant defense, or at least not against Charles Woodson. I’m giving the Packers the victory in this game.
SF vs. SEA
The Seahawks are trying desperately to not fall into the category of a rebuilding team, even though they fell into that category since releasing Shaun Alexander. San Fran has actually rebuilt quite well, and should win this game handily.
DAL vs. WAS
While I think Donovan McNabb is going to help the Redskins improve, I don’t think the supporting cast is there quite yet. Especially with the rift between the coaching staff and Albert Haynesworth likely leading to his being traded or released at some point this season. Dallas is going to win this one.
BAL vs. NYJ *GAME OF THE WEEK*
Two teams that are almost perfectly matched. Both have dominant defenses. Both have a strong running presence. Both have young quarterbacks who have experience great success early in their careers. The only real difference between these two teams is that last part; one team has a quarterback who is a legitimate raising star (Joe Flacco), the other has a quarterback who is the product of a system (Mark Sanchez). Also, I think the Jets may have neutered their own running game by releasing Alan Faneca and are relying on first time starter Matt Slauson to be the dominant run-blocking force. I don’t like the chances of Slauson being able to hold down the dominant force of Haloti Ngata. For this reason, as well as the mistake waiting to happen that is Mark Sanchez (at this point in his career), I’m picking the Ravens to win.
SD vs. KC
This game isn’t very hard to pick. Chargers win.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
College Football Week 1 Preview.
San Jose State @ #1 Alabama
This is pretty much a warm-up game for Alabama. I hate to say that and be so cruel to the players of San Jose State, but really there is a very small chance that they will pull the upset. The only chance the Spartans have is if the Alabama players spend more time looking forward to their game against Penn State…..and half of the Tide players catch the flu. Alabama wins.
Marshall @ #2 Ohio State
Another warm-up game. Sadly, Marshall has about as good a chance to defeat Ohio State as San Jose State has to beating Alabama. Ohio State wins.
#3 Boise State @ #10 Virginia Tech (Game of the Week)
The first match-up between two top ten ranked teams this season, this game features two of my top ten favorites to win the Heisman trophy (Kellen Moore and Ryan Williams). The one stat that should be pivotal to this game is the rushing defense of Boise State. While they ranked 28th in rush defense a year ago, they were gashed in the games against Fresno State (with Ryan Mathews) and Nevada (three 1000+ yard rushers last season), each team averaging over 5 yards per carry against them. If Ryan Williams can replicate that kind of performance in this game, there is good chance that Virginia Tech will be able to pull out this victory. However, against the nation’s 6th ranked rushing offense (Oregon), Boise State was able to hold the Ducks to only 31 total rushing yards. For all the other statistics that can be brought up regarding this game, that statistic is the one that I think is key. In a nationally televised game and against a high ranking opponent from a BCS conference, Boise State did little else but dominate. That is what Head Coach Chris Peterson brings, a preparedness that is second to none. It is for this reason that I am picking Boise State to win this game, though it will be very close.
Miami (Ohio) @ #4 Florida
A bottom of the rung MAC team facing one of the best teams in the SEC at home, do I really need to say more? Even with a new quarterback, Florida should win this game handily.
#5 Texas @ Rice
Texas has dominated this series and should continue this season. Rice is replacing both their quarterback and the majority of their offensive line, not a good combination when facing a team like Texas. Texas wins and Garrett Gilbert gets chance to ease into the starting job.
#24 Oregon State @ #6 TCU
Another great game coming up in this first week, facing TCU’s dominate offense and defense against Oregon State’s dominating runnningback/wide receiver combination of JaQuizz and James Rogers. While the Rogers brothers are dynamic playmakers and Oregon State has the chance to win the Pac-10, TCU is returning 16 starters from a team that ranked in the top ten nationally in both offense and defense. TCU should win this game, though it will be interesting to see how they win it.
Utah State @ #7 Oklahoma
While Utah State is taking steps forward, those steps are small and not big enough to compete with a dominant team like Oklahoma. Oklahoma is going to win big.
Western Kentucky @ #8 Nebraska
While Nebraska isn’t going to struggle against Western Kentucky and should win easily, it’ll still be interesting to see of the Cornhusker’s defensive line plays without the dominant force of Ndamukong Suh in there.
Eastern Illinois @ #9 Iowa
Iowa will dominate. Enough said.
New Mexico @ #11 Oregon
Even with all the turmoil and turnover that has defined the offseason of the Oregon Ducks, they should be able to cope with a New Mexico team that has been steadily declining in quality over the years. This will be a good chance for Oregon to find out what they have in quarterback Darron Thomas.
#12 Wisconsin @ UNLV
Another middle of the road Mountain West team facing a potential BCS title contender; sorry UNLV, but your first victory of the season will be found on another date.
Florida A&M @ #13 Miami (Fl.)
Florida A&M has crawled their way out of the doldrums to be a contender in MEAC. Too bad it’s equivalent of an ant pushing a crumb when compared to the mighty Hurricanes of Miami. Miami will win this game handily.
#14 USC @ Hawaii
USC gets a Hawaiian vacation. Not only do they get to travel to Hawaii, but they face a team that they have dominated the last couple of times the two have faced each other. Sorry Hawaii fans, but look on the bright side, your team’s upcoming schedule is pretty nice.
#15 Pittsburgh @ Utah
Ahhh, now this is a game that causes a real stir of emotions in me. Utah is one of the top programs in the country, regardless of the conference they okay in. I really, REALLY want to pick them to pull the upset in this game. There are two main reasons that I’m not doing that. One is Jordan Wynn, the Utah quarterback. While the sophomore is expected to take big strides forward this year, the simple fact is that he is a sophomore quarterback facing one of the best pass rushers in the country (Greg Romeus). Just not the best combination for a victory. The second reason is Dion Lewis, my favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. I just think he will find a way to have a dominant game and pull Pitt through. While I am picking Pitt, do not be surprised if Utah pulls the upset.
South Carolina State @ #16 Georgia Tech
While South Carolina State is looking for their third straight MEAC title, that little distinction is going to mean very little to last year’s ACC champions. At least Joshua Nesbitt can have some time to work on his passing skills.
Tennessee Tech @ #17 Arkansas
Arkansas is a raising power in the SEC and should have no problem getting through a game against Tennessee Tech.
#21 LSU and #18 North Carolina
This is one of the more interesting games happening this weekend. North Carolina is a raising power in the ACC while LSU is an established power in the SEC. Both teams have a lot of defensive talent and their starting quarterback from the previous season returning. However, with all of the turmoil that has surrounded North Carolina in recent weeks with the accusations of illicit contact with agents, I don’t think that the North Carolina players or coaching staff will be able to completely focus on the game at hand. LSU doesn’t have these issues and has one of the best coaches in the country guiding them. I think LSU will win in a mild upset. Update: This game is no longer an upset. With North Carolina losing up to 16 players to suspensions, including 7 defensive starters, LSU should win handily.
Youngstown State @ #19 Penn State
Evan Royster and company get to start the season with a bang. Blowout win for Penn State.
Samford @ #20 Florida State
Two of College Football Hall of Famer Bobby Bowden’s former jobs face each other in this match-up. Yes, Samford was one of Bobby Bowden’s early coaching jobs before he made Florida State the powerhouse it is today. Sadly for Samford, Bobby Bowden’s last stop should dominate this game.
Arkansas State @ #22 Auburn
While Arkansas State is improving within the Sun Belt, they are still not a match for Auburn.
Louisiana-Lafayette @ #23 Georgia
Same deal as the previous game.
Coastal Carolina @ #25 West Virginia
Do I really need to explain why I am picking West Virginia to win?
Other Games of Note
There are very few games that have any impact on conference title races this week, so I’m going to focus on games I think are good match-ups.
Connecticut @ Michigan
As UConn has raised up from the doldrums of the college football ranks, Michigan has descended from the heights of glory to the purgatory of mediocrity. I find this matchup interesting because of where both teams are currently; one trying to rise to prominence, the other trying to regain lost glory. It’s my belief that this game relies entirely on the performance of Jordan Todman (UConn runningback) and Tate Forcier (Michigan quarterback). Whoever has the better game should be able to lead their team to a victory. I think Tate Forcier is going to have a breakout year, so by extension, I think he is going to have the better game. So, Michigan wins.
SMU @ Texas Tech
Similar to the Connecticut vs. Michigan game, this is game that features one team on the rise (SMU) and the other on the decline (Texas Tech). I’d also say that this was a game of similar high flying offenses, but Tommy Tuberville (the new Texas Tech head coach) isn’t really known for high flying offense. While June Jones is helping SMU improve, they still need more time to be able to compete with BCS teams, even ones that are on the downswing. Texas Tech wins.
Colorado vs. Colorado State
The Rocky Mountain Showdown. This is the first of the rivalry games that define the college football experience to be played this season. While neither team is going to be especially good this season, this game still should be. While Colorado State won it last year, their replacing their quarterback and top two wide receivers. It’s because of this fact, that I am picking Colorado to win the game.
UCLA @ Kansas State
Another game between two less prominent teams, that match-up fairly well. Both teams ranked around the same spot in offense and defense, though those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since both teams lost about half of their defensive starters from a year ago (UCLA: 6, Kansas State: 5). These losses are going to make the play of the offenses much more important. While UCLA is returning more offensive starters (8), none of those starters are as dominant as Kansas State’s runningback Daniel Thomas. If Thomas has a big game, which I believe he will, then Kansas State should pull out the victory, which I believe they will.
Washington @ BYU
A year ago, this game wouldn’t have registered on anyone’s radar. Washington was a bottom-feeding Pac-10 school and BYU was one of the most dominant non-BCS teams in the country. This year, Washington has a chance to make their first bowl game since 2002 and BYU is trying to find a new quarterback, now that Max Hall has moved on. However, even with a new quarterback, BYU is not without talent. If Jake Locker has a great game, then Washington has a good chance of winning. I think the growing pains are going to be a bit too much for BYU to deal with in this game at least. Washington gets a big win early in the season.
Cincinnati @ Fresno State
While both teams have seen prominent members of their offense leave for the draft, they’re still fairly evenly matched teams, though in different ways. Fresno State is pounding running team that prides itself on being able to take on any challenge, while Cincinnati brings a fast-paced, high octane offense to the table that should be able to compete with anyone. In this match-up, Cincinnati brings a somewhat experienced quarterback to the table, while there is less certainty about where Fresno State will be drawing most of their offense from. For this reason, I’m picking Cincinnati to win.
Tulsa @ East Carolina
Perhaps the most important game being previewed here, this is the only game between conference opponents being played this weekend. While most analysts believe that East Carolina is going to fall off with the loss of Skip Holtz and only 8 starters returning. But I think they’ll be alright. Most of the new starters have at least some experience and I was impressed with the way Ruffin McNeill coached up Texas Tech for their bowl game last year. All that being said they’re not going to beat Tulsa, but it will be an interesting match-up to watch and could be pivotal in determining who comes out on top in Conference USA.
Bowling Green @ Troy
While both teams are replacing quarterbacks, this should still be a fun match-up to watch. Both teams use an up-tempo, wide open offense that emphasizes match-ups, so this could be a high scoring affair. Sadly for Bowling Green, Troy’s defense should be able to stifle their passing game long enough to give Troy the victory.
This is pretty much a warm-up game for Alabama. I hate to say that and be so cruel to the players of San Jose State, but really there is a very small chance that they will pull the upset. The only chance the Spartans have is if the Alabama players spend more time looking forward to their game against Penn State…..and half of the Tide players catch the flu. Alabama wins.
Marshall @ #2 Ohio State
Another warm-up game. Sadly, Marshall has about as good a chance to defeat Ohio State as San Jose State has to beating Alabama. Ohio State wins.
#3 Boise State @ #10 Virginia Tech (Game of the Week)
The first match-up between two top ten ranked teams this season, this game features two of my top ten favorites to win the Heisman trophy (Kellen Moore and Ryan Williams). The one stat that should be pivotal to this game is the rushing defense of Boise State. While they ranked 28th in rush defense a year ago, they were gashed in the games against Fresno State (with Ryan Mathews) and Nevada (three 1000+ yard rushers last season), each team averaging over 5 yards per carry against them. If Ryan Williams can replicate that kind of performance in this game, there is good chance that Virginia Tech will be able to pull out this victory. However, against the nation’s 6th ranked rushing offense (Oregon), Boise State was able to hold the Ducks to only 31 total rushing yards. For all the other statistics that can be brought up regarding this game, that statistic is the one that I think is key. In a nationally televised game and against a high ranking opponent from a BCS conference, Boise State did little else but dominate. That is what Head Coach Chris Peterson brings, a preparedness that is second to none. It is for this reason that I am picking Boise State to win this game, though it will be very close.
Miami (Ohio) @ #4 Florida
A bottom of the rung MAC team facing one of the best teams in the SEC at home, do I really need to say more? Even with a new quarterback, Florida should win this game handily.
#5 Texas @ Rice
Texas has dominated this series and should continue this season. Rice is replacing both their quarterback and the majority of their offensive line, not a good combination when facing a team like Texas. Texas wins and Garrett Gilbert gets chance to ease into the starting job.
#24 Oregon State @ #6 TCU
Another great game coming up in this first week, facing TCU’s dominate offense and defense against Oregon State’s dominating runnningback/wide receiver combination of JaQuizz and James Rogers. While the Rogers brothers are dynamic playmakers and Oregon State has the chance to win the Pac-10, TCU is returning 16 starters from a team that ranked in the top ten nationally in both offense and defense. TCU should win this game, though it will be interesting to see how they win it.
Utah State @ #7 Oklahoma
While Utah State is taking steps forward, those steps are small and not big enough to compete with a dominant team like Oklahoma. Oklahoma is going to win big.
Western Kentucky @ #8 Nebraska
While Nebraska isn’t going to struggle against Western Kentucky and should win easily, it’ll still be interesting to see of the Cornhusker’s defensive line plays without the dominant force of Ndamukong Suh in there.
Eastern Illinois @ #9 Iowa
Iowa will dominate. Enough said.
New Mexico @ #11 Oregon
Even with all the turmoil and turnover that has defined the offseason of the Oregon Ducks, they should be able to cope with a New Mexico team that has been steadily declining in quality over the years. This will be a good chance for Oregon to find out what they have in quarterback Darron Thomas.
#12 Wisconsin @ UNLV
Another middle of the road Mountain West team facing a potential BCS title contender; sorry UNLV, but your first victory of the season will be found on another date.
Florida A&M @ #13 Miami (Fl.)
Florida A&M has crawled their way out of the doldrums to be a contender in MEAC. Too bad it’s equivalent of an ant pushing a crumb when compared to the mighty Hurricanes of Miami. Miami will win this game handily.
#14 USC @ Hawaii
USC gets a Hawaiian vacation. Not only do they get to travel to Hawaii, but they face a team that they have dominated the last couple of times the two have faced each other. Sorry Hawaii fans, but look on the bright side, your team’s upcoming schedule is pretty nice.
#15 Pittsburgh @ Utah
Ahhh, now this is a game that causes a real stir of emotions in me. Utah is one of the top programs in the country, regardless of the conference they okay in. I really, REALLY want to pick them to pull the upset in this game. There are two main reasons that I’m not doing that. One is Jordan Wynn, the Utah quarterback. While the sophomore is expected to take big strides forward this year, the simple fact is that he is a sophomore quarterback facing one of the best pass rushers in the country (Greg Romeus). Just not the best combination for a victory. The second reason is Dion Lewis, my favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. I just think he will find a way to have a dominant game and pull Pitt through. While I am picking Pitt, do not be surprised if Utah pulls the upset.
South Carolina State @ #16 Georgia Tech
While South Carolina State is looking for their third straight MEAC title, that little distinction is going to mean very little to last year’s ACC champions. At least Joshua Nesbitt can have some time to work on his passing skills.
Tennessee Tech @ #17 Arkansas
Arkansas is a raising power in the SEC and should have no problem getting through a game against Tennessee Tech.
#21 LSU and #18 North Carolina
This is one of the more interesting games happening this weekend. North Carolina is a raising power in the ACC while LSU is an established power in the SEC. Both teams have a lot of defensive talent and their starting quarterback from the previous season returning. However, with all of the turmoil that has surrounded North Carolina in recent weeks with the accusations of illicit contact with agents, I don’t think that the North Carolina players or coaching staff will be able to completely focus on the game at hand. LSU doesn’t have these issues and has one of the best coaches in the country guiding them. I think LSU will win in a mild upset. Update: This game is no longer an upset. With North Carolina losing up to 16 players to suspensions, including 7 defensive starters, LSU should win handily.
Youngstown State @ #19 Penn State
Evan Royster and company get to start the season with a bang. Blowout win for Penn State.
Samford @ #20 Florida State
Two of College Football Hall of Famer Bobby Bowden’s former jobs face each other in this match-up. Yes, Samford was one of Bobby Bowden’s early coaching jobs before he made Florida State the powerhouse it is today. Sadly for Samford, Bobby Bowden’s last stop should dominate this game.
Arkansas State @ #22 Auburn
While Arkansas State is improving within the Sun Belt, they are still not a match for Auburn.
Louisiana-Lafayette @ #23 Georgia
Same deal as the previous game.
Coastal Carolina @ #25 West Virginia
Do I really need to explain why I am picking West Virginia to win?
Other Games of Note
There are very few games that have any impact on conference title races this week, so I’m going to focus on games I think are good match-ups.
Connecticut @ Michigan
As UConn has raised up from the doldrums of the college football ranks, Michigan has descended from the heights of glory to the purgatory of mediocrity. I find this matchup interesting because of where both teams are currently; one trying to rise to prominence, the other trying to regain lost glory. It’s my belief that this game relies entirely on the performance of Jordan Todman (UConn runningback) and Tate Forcier (Michigan quarterback). Whoever has the better game should be able to lead their team to a victory. I think Tate Forcier is going to have a breakout year, so by extension, I think he is going to have the better game. So, Michigan wins.
SMU @ Texas Tech
Similar to the Connecticut vs. Michigan game, this is game that features one team on the rise (SMU) and the other on the decline (Texas Tech). I’d also say that this was a game of similar high flying offenses, but Tommy Tuberville (the new Texas Tech head coach) isn’t really known for high flying offense. While June Jones is helping SMU improve, they still need more time to be able to compete with BCS teams, even ones that are on the downswing. Texas Tech wins.
Colorado vs. Colorado State
The Rocky Mountain Showdown. This is the first of the rivalry games that define the college football experience to be played this season. While neither team is going to be especially good this season, this game still should be. While Colorado State won it last year, their replacing their quarterback and top two wide receivers. It’s because of this fact, that I am picking Colorado to win the game.
UCLA @ Kansas State
Another game between two less prominent teams, that match-up fairly well. Both teams ranked around the same spot in offense and defense, though those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since both teams lost about half of their defensive starters from a year ago (UCLA: 6, Kansas State: 5). These losses are going to make the play of the offenses much more important. While UCLA is returning more offensive starters (8), none of those starters are as dominant as Kansas State’s runningback Daniel Thomas. If Thomas has a big game, which I believe he will, then Kansas State should pull out the victory, which I believe they will.
Washington @ BYU
A year ago, this game wouldn’t have registered on anyone’s radar. Washington was a bottom-feeding Pac-10 school and BYU was one of the most dominant non-BCS teams in the country. This year, Washington has a chance to make their first bowl game since 2002 and BYU is trying to find a new quarterback, now that Max Hall has moved on. However, even with a new quarterback, BYU is not without talent. If Jake Locker has a great game, then Washington has a good chance of winning. I think the growing pains are going to be a bit too much for BYU to deal with in this game at least. Washington gets a big win early in the season.
Cincinnati @ Fresno State
While both teams have seen prominent members of their offense leave for the draft, they’re still fairly evenly matched teams, though in different ways. Fresno State is pounding running team that prides itself on being able to take on any challenge, while Cincinnati brings a fast-paced, high octane offense to the table that should be able to compete with anyone. In this match-up, Cincinnati brings a somewhat experienced quarterback to the table, while there is less certainty about where Fresno State will be drawing most of their offense from. For this reason, I’m picking Cincinnati to win.
Tulsa @ East Carolina
Perhaps the most important game being previewed here, this is the only game between conference opponents being played this weekend. While most analysts believe that East Carolina is going to fall off with the loss of Skip Holtz and only 8 starters returning. But I think they’ll be alright. Most of the new starters have at least some experience and I was impressed with the way Ruffin McNeill coached up Texas Tech for their bowl game last year. All that being said they’re not going to beat Tulsa, but it will be an interesting match-up to watch and could be pivotal in determining who comes out on top in Conference USA.
Bowling Green @ Troy
While both teams are replacing quarterbacks, this should still be a fun match-up to watch. Both teams use an up-tempo, wide open offense that emphasizes match-ups, so this could be a high scoring affair. Sadly for Bowling Green, Troy’s defense should be able to stifle their passing game long enough to give Troy the victory.
Top 25 Heisman Candidates (Week 1)
1. Dion Lewis – As a true freshman, rushing for nearly 1800 yards and 17 touchdowns. Now in his sophomore season, with a new quarterback, the focus of the offense will be on him. If he can be as good as he was a year ago, he’ll be a strong candidate for the Heisman, possibly even challenging all-time single season rushing mark.
2. Kellen Moore – Probably the best college quarterback returning this season, Kellen Moore is among my favorites to win the Heisman trophy. He was second in the country last season in passing efficiency and had thirty-nine touchdown passes against only three picks. Since winning the starting job in 2008, Kellen Moore has lost only one game, that being a close loss to TCU in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl. That kind of record is likely to continue as the junior quarterback returns with a mostly intact offense and defense. While it will be difficult if not impossible for him to repeat the kind of production he had a season ago, it is not unlikely that he will be able to produce like a Heisman winner. The chemistry he shares with his receivers, his familiarity with his offense and most importantly, his familiarity with his opponent’s defenses, all give him a major advantage over other quarterbacks who are being considered for the Heisman. Other quarterbacks will likely have more eye-popping numbers; none will be as efficient as Moore.
3. Terrelle Pryor – While I won’t goes as far as saying that Pryor is going to make the kind of jump that Vince Young made between his sophomore and junior season, Pryor showed enough skill during Ohio State’s Rose Bowl victory to give me hope. If he can be a consistent dual threat, in the way that Troy Smith was when he won the Heisman.
4. Mark Ingram – This one is pretty obvious; selecting last year’s Heisman winner as the best Heisman candidate on his own team. While I didn’t believe that Ingram had a good enough season last year to win the Heisman over Ndamukong Suh, the fact remains that his bruising running style and penchant for running harder as the game goes on, has allowed Alabama to control the clock. It’s this kind of clock control that allowed Alabama to rely so heavily upon their defense last season. This year, the offensive focus will again be on Ingram and he should deliver with a veteran offensive line in front of him. He should be able put up the same kind of numbers this season, but the lower win total will likely hurt his chances.
5. JacQuizz Rogers – 22 total touchdowns last season combined with over 2,000 all-purpose yards put the younger Rogers brother in an excellent position to compete for a Heisman Trophy.
6. Ryan Williams – Noticing a theme yet? Much like Rogers, Williams scored 22 total touchdowns and rush for over 1600 yards. He’s a favorite in the minds of many pundits, but don’t like his chances as much. There are two main reasons I have him ranked lower than Rogers. One is the fact that he doesn’t catch the ball as much as Rogers and two is the fact that he is going to be splitting carries with the returning Darren Evans. Even if the splitting carries is going to keep him fresher, it also limits the number of yards he can put up.
7. Case Keenum – While Keenum has never been as efficient as Kellen Moore, he excels in the Houston offense and puts up monster statistics every year. Even though it will be difficult to repeat his numbers from last season, the numbers he does put up should be enough to get him plenty of consideration for the Heisman.
8. John Clay – The hefty in this list, John Clay continues the great history of big runningbacks that Wisconsin has established over the past 15 years. From Ron Dayne to Anthony Davis to P.J. Hill, Wisconsin has lead bigger runningbacks to highly productive seasons. That will be no different this season. I expect to see him score another 15+ touchdowns and, if the Badgers challenge for the Big Ten title, he’ll find his way to New York.
9. LaMichael James – Even though he will be suspended for a game due to legal troubles, LaMichael James is the player through which most of the team’s offense will be focused. With a new quarterback playing, it will be as important as ever for him to have a dominant season. If he can reproduce the kind of season he had last year (1500+ yards and 14 touchdowns), with the spotlight on him this time, he should receive serious Heisman consideration.
10. Noel Devine – If Wisconsin is known for their big backs, then West Virginia is known for their smaller backs. Though the history is not as long, it’s every bit as successful, at least in recent years. Going from ‘Stunted’ Steve Slaton (a great Heisman candidate during his career) to ‘Nativity Piece’ Noel Devine (I never claimed to be great at giving nicknames), the Mountaineers have excelled with smaller, more explosive runners in their zone-blocking, spread option offense. While the 1400+ yards and 13 touchdowns are impressive, the thing that sets Devine apart from the pack is his 6.1 average yards per carry. Keep an eye on this little pack of dynamite.
11. Ryan Mallett – 30 touchdowns to only 7 picks in a major conference would get anyone on this list. The thing that keeps Mallett this high is the fact that he did that with a minimal running game last year. As the focal point of this offense, he is going to put up good numbers; the only question that remains is how that will affect the Razorbacks record. If they challenge for the SEC title, then he’ll get more consideration, if not, then you probably won’t hear too much about him until draft day.
12. Jake Locker - If any player on the Washington roster has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy, its Jake Locker. His continued development would bring with it the kinds of offensive numbers that voters are looking for in a Heisman candidate. He will need to improve greatly (in the area of 50 touchdown passes) for him to be considered since Washington is unlikely to be competing for a BCS title.
13. Matt Barkley - It’s a lot like other teams with Barkley. While Barkley has given little indication that he is capable of putting up the kind of numbers that would be required for him to be seriously considered for the Heisman trophy, if anyone on this team is going to compete for this award, it is going to be Barkley. He is the key to USC succeeding, and the more that USC succeeds, the more momentum Barkley gains on the road to the Heisman.
14. Evan Royster - While not necessarily thought of in the best light by scout’s because he has no outstanding qualities, Royster still has shown enough talent to be worth a pick in the second day (rounds 2-3). He really comes off as a poor man’s Joseph Addai; not really fast or powerful, but does all of the little things right and finds ways to be productive in spite of his shortcomings. A team who’s looking for a backup runningback who does all of the little things right could do worse than Evan Royster.
15. Christian Ponder – This is one of those rare cases where I’m not sure why this player is on this list. After seeing him on list after list of top quarterback prospects and Heisman candidates I just felt I had to include him. He has respectable numbers, but not breaking 3000 passing yards or even 15 touchdowns is just not Heisman material in my mind, though the near 70% completion percentage is impressive. A big jump will need to be made by him if he wants to climb my list, but he could still find himself a finalist in spite of what I think.
16. Jacory Harris – Now this is more of the guy I would think of as a Hesiman Finalist. Harris showed a great ability to work a defense which he combined with a powerful arm to become a dangerous passer. He does need to improve on his accuracy and cut down on the interceptions, but he is a dangerous player who could help resurrect the great quarterback legacy of “Da U.”
17. Colin Kaepernick - While not the best passer in the country, Kaepernick is one of those players who can make an impact in multiple ways. In addition to his 20 touchdown passes, he also was the second leading rusher (1183 yards) on the team and led the team in rushing touchdowns (16). All of that while having two other rushers who surpassed 1,000 yards rushing. This upcoming season sees him robbed of third leading rusher Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards and 9 touchdowns), starting center Kenneth Ackerman and left tackle Alonzo Durham. If he can maintain his production as both a rusher and passer (if not improve as a passer) he could very well find himself next to fellow candidate Kellen Moore in New York for the Heisman presentation.
18. Jerrod Johnson – It would surprise many fans, including myself that Jerrod Johnson put up numbers very similar to Ryan Mallett. He threw only one more interception than Mallett and scored an additional 8 touchdowns rushing. Even though Johnson is more of a running threat than Mallet, he also has a better running game, lending a bit more weight to Mallet’s numbers. But Johnson is not going to sneak up on anyone this season.
19. Andrew Luck - Should the Stanford Cardinals push for a Pac-10 title, it will be because of the offensive prowess and development of the redshirt sophomore quarterback. He will need to become a better decision-maker and become more wary of the hazards of running from the pocket. Should this development take place he would put up at least solid stats, potentially great stats, he will be following his teammate (Gerhart) to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony.
20. Blaine Gabbert – Continuing in the vein of highly productive Missouri quarterbacks under Gary Pinkel, Gabbert is quickly beomcing one of the best quarterbacks in the Big-12 and in the country. While the system has something to do with it, the fact is the he, like Brad Smith and Chase Daniel before him, execute that offense with nearly flawless poise. He may need another year of experience to really challenge for the Heisman, but to count him out of this Heisman race would be a mistake.
21. Landry Jones – Thee simple fact that he replaced a Heisman Trophy winning player (Sam Bradford) and performed BETTER than that player did that the point in his career, should be all I need to explain this selection. Though somewhat inconsistent a year ago, Landry Jones should take the steps necessary to become the dominant quarterback in the Big 12. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to find him on the Heisman Finalist list.
22. Garrett Gilbert – Despite only starting one game during his short career at Texas, Gilbert impressed me enough during that game to make this list. He has a good grasp of the Texas offense and showed during the game against Alabama that he can make adjustments and improve as the game went along. If he can do that over the course of a season and Texas make a repeat trip to the BCS title game, then he could find himself as a surprise Heisman finalist. At least a surprise to most pundits.
23. Michael Floyd - One of the top receivers in college football, Michael Floyd is also one of the few wide receivers who has a legitimate shot at being the Heisman winner without doubling as a return man. Last season, he was able to average 18.1 yards per reception and pull down nine touchdowns, in spite of missing five games with injuries. He broke out, becoming a big play threat that defenses must plan around. This season, he loses experienced quarterback Jimmy Clausen and big play teammate Golden Tate, not even bringing up how the loses at the offensive line are going to affect his production. If he can continue to be the big play threat he was last season, with all the inexperience around him and defenses keying on him, he has a great chance of being the first non-runningback/quarterback Heisman winner since Charles Woodson in 1997 and the first wide receiver to win since Desmond Howard in 1991.
24. A.J. Green – In spite of not breaking 1,000 receiving yards in either of his first two years as a starter, Green is considered one of, if not the, most talented receivers in the country. His explosiveness has allowed him to average over fifteen yards per catch each of those two seasons. The main reason he is this low on the list is the fact that he has a freshman quarterback and doesn’t return punts or kicks. While the freshman quarterback may be encouraged to feed the ball to him, there is no guarantee that he’ll be able to complete the passes. The lack of return yard will further hinder his potential, since most receivers need to have those extra numbers to get serious consideration.
25. Julio Jones – Every bit as good a player as Greene, the only thing that is keeping Julio Jones from surpassing the Georgia prospect, is the focus on the running game. It’s also not a good sign for Greg McElroy when a no-name is being given more credit as a passer than him.
Other Contenders: John Brantley, Ricky Dobbs, Josh Nesbitt, DeMarco Murray, Anthony Allen, Tyrod Taylor, Eddie Wide, Tate Forcier, G.J. Kinne, Roy Helu, Montel Harris, Jon Baldwin, DeAndre Brown, B.J. Daniels, Robert Griffin, Tom Savage, Russell Wilson, Zach Collaros, Tyler Potts, Ryan Broyles, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Lindley, Donald Buckram, Dwight Dasher, Jordan Todman
2. Kellen Moore – Probably the best college quarterback returning this season, Kellen Moore is among my favorites to win the Heisman trophy. He was second in the country last season in passing efficiency and had thirty-nine touchdown passes against only three picks. Since winning the starting job in 2008, Kellen Moore has lost only one game, that being a close loss to TCU in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl. That kind of record is likely to continue as the junior quarterback returns with a mostly intact offense and defense. While it will be difficult if not impossible for him to repeat the kind of production he had a season ago, it is not unlikely that he will be able to produce like a Heisman winner. The chemistry he shares with his receivers, his familiarity with his offense and most importantly, his familiarity with his opponent’s defenses, all give him a major advantage over other quarterbacks who are being considered for the Heisman. Other quarterbacks will likely have more eye-popping numbers; none will be as efficient as Moore.
3. Terrelle Pryor – While I won’t goes as far as saying that Pryor is going to make the kind of jump that Vince Young made between his sophomore and junior season, Pryor showed enough skill during Ohio State’s Rose Bowl victory to give me hope. If he can be a consistent dual threat, in the way that Troy Smith was when he won the Heisman.
4. Mark Ingram – This one is pretty obvious; selecting last year’s Heisman winner as the best Heisman candidate on his own team. While I didn’t believe that Ingram had a good enough season last year to win the Heisman over Ndamukong Suh, the fact remains that his bruising running style and penchant for running harder as the game goes on, has allowed Alabama to control the clock. It’s this kind of clock control that allowed Alabama to rely so heavily upon their defense last season. This year, the offensive focus will again be on Ingram and he should deliver with a veteran offensive line in front of him. He should be able put up the same kind of numbers this season, but the lower win total will likely hurt his chances.
5. JacQuizz Rogers – 22 total touchdowns last season combined with over 2,000 all-purpose yards put the younger Rogers brother in an excellent position to compete for a Heisman Trophy.
6. Ryan Williams – Noticing a theme yet? Much like Rogers, Williams scored 22 total touchdowns and rush for over 1600 yards. He’s a favorite in the minds of many pundits, but don’t like his chances as much. There are two main reasons I have him ranked lower than Rogers. One is the fact that he doesn’t catch the ball as much as Rogers and two is the fact that he is going to be splitting carries with the returning Darren Evans. Even if the splitting carries is going to keep him fresher, it also limits the number of yards he can put up.
7. Case Keenum – While Keenum has never been as efficient as Kellen Moore, he excels in the Houston offense and puts up monster statistics every year. Even though it will be difficult to repeat his numbers from last season, the numbers he does put up should be enough to get him plenty of consideration for the Heisman.
8. John Clay – The hefty in this list, John Clay continues the great history of big runningbacks that Wisconsin has established over the past 15 years. From Ron Dayne to Anthony Davis to P.J. Hill, Wisconsin has lead bigger runningbacks to highly productive seasons. That will be no different this season. I expect to see him score another 15+ touchdowns and, if the Badgers challenge for the Big Ten title, he’ll find his way to New York.
9. LaMichael James – Even though he will be suspended for a game due to legal troubles, LaMichael James is the player through which most of the team’s offense will be focused. With a new quarterback playing, it will be as important as ever for him to have a dominant season. If he can reproduce the kind of season he had last year (1500+ yards and 14 touchdowns), with the spotlight on him this time, he should receive serious Heisman consideration.
10. Noel Devine – If Wisconsin is known for their big backs, then West Virginia is known for their smaller backs. Though the history is not as long, it’s every bit as successful, at least in recent years. Going from ‘Stunted’ Steve Slaton (a great Heisman candidate during his career) to ‘Nativity Piece’ Noel Devine (I never claimed to be great at giving nicknames), the Mountaineers have excelled with smaller, more explosive runners in their zone-blocking, spread option offense. While the 1400+ yards and 13 touchdowns are impressive, the thing that sets Devine apart from the pack is his 6.1 average yards per carry. Keep an eye on this little pack of dynamite.
11. Ryan Mallett – 30 touchdowns to only 7 picks in a major conference would get anyone on this list. The thing that keeps Mallett this high is the fact that he did that with a minimal running game last year. As the focal point of this offense, he is going to put up good numbers; the only question that remains is how that will affect the Razorbacks record. If they challenge for the SEC title, then he’ll get more consideration, if not, then you probably won’t hear too much about him until draft day.
12. Jake Locker - If any player on the Washington roster has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy, its Jake Locker. His continued development would bring with it the kinds of offensive numbers that voters are looking for in a Heisman candidate. He will need to improve greatly (in the area of 50 touchdown passes) for him to be considered since Washington is unlikely to be competing for a BCS title.
13. Matt Barkley - It’s a lot like other teams with Barkley. While Barkley has given little indication that he is capable of putting up the kind of numbers that would be required for him to be seriously considered for the Heisman trophy, if anyone on this team is going to compete for this award, it is going to be Barkley. He is the key to USC succeeding, and the more that USC succeeds, the more momentum Barkley gains on the road to the Heisman.
14. Evan Royster - While not necessarily thought of in the best light by scout’s because he has no outstanding qualities, Royster still has shown enough talent to be worth a pick in the second day (rounds 2-3). He really comes off as a poor man’s Joseph Addai; not really fast or powerful, but does all of the little things right and finds ways to be productive in spite of his shortcomings. A team who’s looking for a backup runningback who does all of the little things right could do worse than Evan Royster.
15. Christian Ponder – This is one of those rare cases where I’m not sure why this player is on this list. After seeing him on list after list of top quarterback prospects and Heisman candidates I just felt I had to include him. He has respectable numbers, but not breaking 3000 passing yards or even 15 touchdowns is just not Heisman material in my mind, though the near 70% completion percentage is impressive. A big jump will need to be made by him if he wants to climb my list, but he could still find himself a finalist in spite of what I think.
16. Jacory Harris – Now this is more of the guy I would think of as a Hesiman Finalist. Harris showed a great ability to work a defense which he combined with a powerful arm to become a dangerous passer. He does need to improve on his accuracy and cut down on the interceptions, but he is a dangerous player who could help resurrect the great quarterback legacy of “Da U.”
17. Colin Kaepernick - While not the best passer in the country, Kaepernick is one of those players who can make an impact in multiple ways. In addition to his 20 touchdown passes, he also was the second leading rusher (1183 yards) on the team and led the team in rushing touchdowns (16). All of that while having two other rushers who surpassed 1,000 yards rushing. This upcoming season sees him robbed of third leading rusher Luke Lippincott (1,034 yards and 9 touchdowns), starting center Kenneth Ackerman and left tackle Alonzo Durham. If he can maintain his production as both a rusher and passer (if not improve as a passer) he could very well find himself next to fellow candidate Kellen Moore in New York for the Heisman presentation.
18. Jerrod Johnson – It would surprise many fans, including myself that Jerrod Johnson put up numbers very similar to Ryan Mallett. He threw only one more interception than Mallett and scored an additional 8 touchdowns rushing. Even though Johnson is more of a running threat than Mallet, he also has a better running game, lending a bit more weight to Mallet’s numbers. But Johnson is not going to sneak up on anyone this season.
19. Andrew Luck - Should the Stanford Cardinals push for a Pac-10 title, it will be because of the offensive prowess and development of the redshirt sophomore quarterback. He will need to become a better decision-maker and become more wary of the hazards of running from the pocket. Should this development take place he would put up at least solid stats, potentially great stats, he will be following his teammate (Gerhart) to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony.
20. Blaine Gabbert – Continuing in the vein of highly productive Missouri quarterbacks under Gary Pinkel, Gabbert is quickly beomcing one of the best quarterbacks in the Big-12 and in the country. While the system has something to do with it, the fact is the he, like Brad Smith and Chase Daniel before him, execute that offense with nearly flawless poise. He may need another year of experience to really challenge for the Heisman, but to count him out of this Heisman race would be a mistake.
21. Landry Jones – Thee simple fact that he replaced a Heisman Trophy winning player (Sam Bradford) and performed BETTER than that player did that the point in his career, should be all I need to explain this selection. Though somewhat inconsistent a year ago, Landry Jones should take the steps necessary to become the dominant quarterback in the Big 12. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to find him on the Heisman Finalist list.
22. Garrett Gilbert – Despite only starting one game during his short career at Texas, Gilbert impressed me enough during that game to make this list. He has a good grasp of the Texas offense and showed during the game against Alabama that he can make adjustments and improve as the game went along. If he can do that over the course of a season and Texas make a repeat trip to the BCS title game, then he could find himself as a surprise Heisman finalist. At least a surprise to most pundits.
23. Michael Floyd - One of the top receivers in college football, Michael Floyd is also one of the few wide receivers who has a legitimate shot at being the Heisman winner without doubling as a return man. Last season, he was able to average 18.1 yards per reception and pull down nine touchdowns, in spite of missing five games with injuries. He broke out, becoming a big play threat that defenses must plan around. This season, he loses experienced quarterback Jimmy Clausen and big play teammate Golden Tate, not even bringing up how the loses at the offensive line are going to affect his production. If he can continue to be the big play threat he was last season, with all the inexperience around him and defenses keying on him, he has a great chance of being the first non-runningback/quarterback Heisman winner since Charles Woodson in 1997 and the first wide receiver to win since Desmond Howard in 1991.
24. A.J. Green – In spite of not breaking 1,000 receiving yards in either of his first two years as a starter, Green is considered one of, if not the, most talented receivers in the country. His explosiveness has allowed him to average over fifteen yards per catch each of those two seasons. The main reason he is this low on the list is the fact that he has a freshman quarterback and doesn’t return punts or kicks. While the freshman quarterback may be encouraged to feed the ball to him, there is no guarantee that he’ll be able to complete the passes. The lack of return yard will further hinder his potential, since most receivers need to have those extra numbers to get serious consideration.
25. Julio Jones – Every bit as good a player as Greene, the only thing that is keeping Julio Jones from surpassing the Georgia prospect, is the focus on the running game. It’s also not a good sign for Greg McElroy when a no-name is being given more credit as a passer than him.
Other Contenders: John Brantley, Ricky Dobbs, Josh Nesbitt, DeMarco Murray, Anthony Allen, Tyrod Taylor, Eddie Wide, Tate Forcier, G.J. Kinne, Roy Helu, Montel Harris, Jon Baldwin, DeAndre Brown, B.J. Daniels, Robert Griffin, Tom Savage, Russell Wilson, Zach Collaros, Tyler Potts, Ryan Broyles, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Lindley, Donald Buckram, Dwight Dasher, Jordan Todman
Sunday, July 25, 2010
College Football Preview: Pac-10
Pacific Ten Season Preview
Arizona
2009 Recap
While the Wildcats were somewhat inconsistent in their play during the course of last season, they were able to pull some impressive upsets, including victories over USC and Oregon State (both on the road) and push the 2009 Pac-10 Champions, Oregon, to the limit in a double overtime loss. Also, even in their losses, they were never really embarrassed until their loss in the Holiday Bowl to Nebraska. Before that game, the worst margin of defeat was a ten point loss to Iowa, showing that the Wildcats are able to compete on the same level as the conference’s elite.
Schedule
With the exception of having to face Iowa in their third game, Arizona’s non-conference schedule is weak. Toledo and the Citadel are hardly worth talking up. Another benefit to their schedule is the fact that they only have to travel to play the previously mentioned Toledo, Washington State, UCLA, Stanford and Oregon. With the exception of Oregon and Stanford, Arizona should be favored in all of those games.
Potential Upsets
The Wildcats pulled upsets against USC, Oregon State and Stanford last year, proving that they are a dangerous team to underestimate. All of these teams should be on upset watch when facing the Arizona Wildcats, as should the Oregon Ducks. This by no means indicates that Arizona will be competing for a conference title, but they are a dangerous team.
Pitfall Games
Washington and California could both surprise Arizona if the Wildcats become complacent. There also is the Arizona State game which is always a tough battle even if the scoreboard doesn’t always reflect that fact.
Must Step Up
Linebacker Corp.: All three starters in the linebacker corps have been replaced with younger more inexperienced players. If the Wildcats are to compete in the Pac-10 this season, they are going to need their defense to step up and repeat the performance they had a year ago, when they ranked 25th in the nation in total defense. To do this, they need to have at least one of their linebackers become an impact player.
Heisman Candidate
Nick Foles – QB: This is going to be a bit of a trend in this category. Foles, like many other Heisman candidates are going to be the key to the success of their teams. In this case, Arizona uses a two back system and is replacing the majority of their defense, so the passing game will be the main source of energy and excitement for the Wildcats this season. In order for it to be successful, Nick Foles is going to have to keep putting up big numbers and keeping the opposing defenses off balance.
Sunday’s Star
Trevin Wade – CB: While he may not register as highly on the draft boards as some other corners, Trevin Wade is looking to continue a strong tradition of Arizona corners. He is coming off a season where he picked off five passes and is looking to push himself to the top of the All-Pac-10 team as a corner. With his speed and savvy he should be able to pull it off too.
Bowl Game?
Arizona is a strong enough team to make a middle of the pack bowl game, perhaps returning to the Holiday Bowl.
Arizona State
2009 Recap
The Sun Devils of Tempe have little to celebrate after last season. They only won two games in-conference, and one of them was against Washington State. The only win they could remotely hang their hat on was a victory against Washington, their last victory of the season. On the bright side, their defense ranked in the top 30 in the nation in the four major defensive categories. Those being rushing yards, passing yards, total yards and scoring. It’s not much, but it’s something they can try and build on.
Schedule
The Sun Devils have a very similar schedule to last season. All of the in conference games, save the Washington State game should favor the opponent. The only non-conference game of note this season would be the week when they need to travel to Madison to play the Badgers. It’s a sad state when a BCS conference team has to schedule two games against FCS teams.
Potential Upsets
The only games where Arizona State could potentially pull an upset are in the games against Arizona and Washington. Both games are against middling Pac-10 teams and on the road. Should the Sun Devils pull either of those games out, it would be very damaging to the case of either team.
Pitfall Games
The only potential pitfall on the Arizona State Schedule is the game against Washington State. However, that is only because Washington State is the only team that isn’t equal to or better than the Sun Devils.
Must Step Up
Steven Threet – QB: This is just the first of many quarterbacks you’re going to see in this section. While there’s no guarantee that the Michigan transfer will win the job from sophomore Brock Osweiler, he has the most experience from the 8 games he started for Michigan back in 2008. That experience will be the difference in the quarterback battle (in my opinion), but it is yet to be seen if it will be enough to carry the offense. In that way he needs to step up and be a unifying force on that offense, since there are so few returning starters on offense.
Heisman Candidate
Vontaze Burfict – LB: This is a horrible sign. When your best chance at getting a Heisman trophy winner on your team is a sophomore linebacker who will never be given serious consideration no matter how good he is, you know you’re team is in need of a serious influx of talent. To Burfict himself, he does need to improve his pass coverage a bit, but otherwise he is an all-around great linebacker who should improve with experience.
Sunday’s Star
Lawrence Guy – DT: Perhaps one of the most underrated players in the Pac-10, Lawrence Guy is a massive Defensive Tackle who can regularly take up two or three blockers at any given time. While he isn’t an overly great pass rusher, he has the ability to collapse the pocket and take up blocks, free other pass rushers to do their job. He has the potential to be an All-American come season’s end and should he achieve that honor, he might bolt for the NFL early.
Bowl Game?
There is almost no chance that the Sun Devils will make a bowl game this season. This will be a year of the Sun Devils gaining experience and building some chemistry on offense.
California
2009 Recap
2009 was nothing special for California. They really didn’t take a big step back, but at the same time they failed to make any major strides towards being major contenders for the Pac-10 title. Aside from getting blown out by Washington at the end of the regular season, none of their losses (against USC, Oregon and Oregon State) were all that surprising. At the same time the only win that wasn’t necessarily expected was their victory over Stanford. It was basically a year for California to get experience younger players. Useful since Jahvid Best, their best offensive talent on the team, is now in Detroit.
Schedule
California has only a mediocre, if not easy non-conference schedule this season. Only one team of the three is worth mentioning is Nevada, who California has to face on the road. That only adds to the gauntlet that California has to face on the road. In addition to Nevada, who is no slouch, they also have to face USC, Oregon State and Arizona on the road. If the Golden Bears can somehow pull out three of those four games, they could be in good position to make a run at the Pac-10 title.
Potential Upsets
Well, USC, Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State are going to be heard about a lot in these sections; since they are, in my opinion, the four teams likely to compete for the Pac-10 title. I do think that California could pull the upset on any one of these teams, but not more than two. I just don’t think they have the ability to overcome all of their shortcomings to defeat these teams on more than one occasion.
Pitfall Games
The Golden Bears need to beware Nevada and Washington. Either of those games could knock them from the hunt for the Pac-10 title. Another game they should keep their collective eye to is the UCLA game. This one of those rare instances where I really can’t backup why I feel this way, I just do. It’s completely a gut call, which I normally don’t rely on. Maybe it’s the fact that California has to go to Arizona the week before and to USC the week after, possibly allowing for complacency. It’s just a feeling, but I think they need to be careful in that game.
Must Step Up
Kevin Riley – QB: This case is pretty simple. The passing offense was not particularly good last year and that caused an overreliance on the running game. This year, with Shane Vereen being the new feature back, Riley has to come forward and be an offensive leader, to draw pressure off the running game and to allow the defense to get a rest when they need it.
Heisman Candidate
Shane Vereen – RB: This one is kind of by default. There is no other great offensive force on the California team and Vereen is the most likely to put up the kind of numbers that the Heisman committee would be looking for. While not quite the break-away runner that Jahvid Best was, Vereen can still run with the best of college football and has enough power to make hard to bring down.
Sunday’s Star
Mike Mohamed – LB: For a conference that is so dominated by offense, you’d think there wouldn’t be as much defensive talent in this section would you? In this case, it is highly justified. Mike Mohamed was able to not only lead the team in tackles, but also had two sacks, six tackles for a loss and three interceptions, showing his amazing versatility. His athleticism and somewhat smaller size may restrict him going into the league, but he is hard enough working player to make it work.
Bowl Game?
California will most likely reach a Bowl game, but it will still likely be a middle of the road season, them the Golden Bears failing to push for a major bowl bid.
Oregon
2009 Recap
2009 proved to be a major proving ground for the Oregon Ducks. While USC faltered, and really seemed to fail to recover from being beaten by Washington, Oregon pushed through their opening day loss to Boise State (which resulted in the loss of their star running back LeGarrette Blount)to win every other game they played with the exception of one. Their nine point loss at Stanford didn’t hurt their cause to win the Pac-10 title, since it was their only in-conference loss. While the rash of arrests during and following the season has overshadowed the success that this team had, they can still take pride in the fact that they won a Pac-10 title and are among the favorites to win another one.
Schedule
Oregon has perhaps the easiest schedule of the three main contenders for the Pac-10 title. The only difficult road games that have appeared on their schedule are games against USC and Oregon State. There will be a challenge for them going across the country to face Tennessee; however Tennessee may not be able to really challenge them, given the new coaching staff.
Potential Upsets
Not really any potential upsets in this group. Oregon is just that good this season, in my mind. Good enough that they are at least on even footing with every team they play this season.
Pitfall Games
While the game against Tennessee is not likely to challenge Oregon, the Ducks do need to be wary of becoming too confident and the effects of extended travel. The game may not be expected to be a problem, however with the travel and the fact that the SEC is the toughest conference in the country, Tennessee may just surprise the Ducks. Oddly enough their first game against New Mexico could be a danger, if for other reason because LaMichael James will be suspended for that game.
Must Step Up
Darron Thomas – QB: While Nate Costa is the more experienced player and the better thrower, Thomas has no extended history of knee injuries and fits better into the offense that Oregon runs. It will take some time for him to adjust to the speed of the game and there is no guarantee that he will win the job, but I think he gives Oregon the best chance to repeat as Pac-10 Champions. But he will need take big steps forward if the Ducks want to compete with Oregon state and USC.
Heisman Candidate
LaMichael James – RB: Even though he will be suspended for a game due to legal troubles, LaMichael James is the player through which most of the team’s offense will be focused. With a new quarterback playing, it will be as important as ever for him to have a dominant season. If he can reproduce the kind of season he had last year, with the spotlight on him this time, he should receive serious Heisman consideration.
Sunday’s Star
Casey Matthews – LB: This one all comes down to bloodlines. Casey Matthews, brother of Clay Matthews Jr. has all the experience one could want from a senior linebacker and is the kind of work-hard player that his dad was. He doesn’t have as much athletic ability as his brother, but is still just as good in his own way. If his name wasn’t Matthews, he would probably be overlooked for someone with more potential, but as it stands he will make one team very happy come next year. LaMichael James would be here, except for the fact that he is having legal difficulties and, as was seen in the case of his former teammate LeGarrette Blount, that can kill one’s draft stock.
Bowl Game?
Oregon is one of three teams that will be competing for the privilege of playing in the Rose Bowl. If they don’t make it that far, they have the talent to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl game.
Oregon State
2009 Recap
Aside from back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Arizona, Oregon State had an excellent season, they were able to keep it close with the major powers in the conference, and solidly win games against opponents who were inferior. They were even able to show dominance both on the road and at home, losing only two games in either situation.
Schedule
If Oregon State can come out of their first three games undefeated then they deserve to be in the top five in the nation. The only game of those three that comes against a team that wasn’t in a BCS bowl game last year is their game against Louisville. But they still have to take on both TCU and Boise State in the same month then go on the road to face Arizona and Stanford. However, with Stanford being the only other conference title contender that they need to face on the road, getting USC and Oregon at home.
Potential Upsets
Not really any potential upsets in this group. Oregon State is just that good this season, in my mind. Good enough that they are at least on even footing with every team they play this season.
Pitfall Games
Well, when you have so few games that could be considered upsets should Oregon State; you have to expect that there would be a plethora of potential pitfalls. Along with Oregon, Stanford and USC, Oregon state needs to beware becoming complacent against Washington and Arizona, though it’s less likely that Arizona will catch them off-guard a second time. Some may considered Boise State a potential pitfall; however those people weren’t paying attention to how well Boise state played against Oregon last year.
Must Step Up
Ryan Katz/Peter Lalich – QB: With last year’s starter Sean Canfield now in training camp hoping to hold onto a roster spot with the Saints, Ryan Katz (sophomore) or Peter Lalich (Junior) need to make an impact and provide enough of a passing threat that teams will not be able to just stack up against JacQuizz Rodgers. That shouldn’t be too incredibly difficult, since the top receiver from last year, James Rodgers returns and JacQuizz himself is an excellent pass catcher.
Heisman Candidate
JacQuizz Rodgers – RB: This one is a no-brainer. JacQuizz Rodgers had over 2,000 all-purpose yards and 22 touchdowns last season. Should he replicate that production this year, he will be given serious Heisman consideration.
Sunday’s Star
Stephen Paea – DT: Stephen Paea will probably be known as this year’s Brian Price. While he may not put up the kind of statistics that Price put up last season, but he will be the kind of player who will fly under the radar during the season, but then as the season wraps up, the experts will look back at his season and begin judging him as one of the best defensive tackles in that draft. He has the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage and disrupt running lanes. Keep an eye on him, cause he could be really special.
Bowl Game?
Oregon State is one of three teams that will be competing for the privilege of playing in the Rose Bowl. If they don’t make it that far, they have the talent to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl game.
Stanford
2009 Recap
2009 was the season when Stanford dug themselves out of the doldrums of losing football and found their way into the ranks of the top four teams in the Pac-10. While they did four games, they were never really blown out nor did it feel like they were in over their head. They also had impressive victories over conference powerhouses USC and Oregon, blowing USC out at the LA Coliseum. While they did lose their bowl game against Oklahoma, it was still the first bowl game they had been to since 2001.
Schedule
The Cardinals of Stanford got a fairly nice draw when it comes to scheduling this season. They face two of their three major competitors for the Pac-10 title (USC and Oregon State) at home, while only a trip to Oregon would seem to upset their road schedule.
Potential Upsets
Those three games against Oregon, USC and Oregon State could be considered upsets should Stanford wins those games. It’s tricky to say because of how close all of these teams are to one another in terms of talent.
Pitfall Games
California, Arizona and Washington could all turn into upsets, the only non-conference game that surprise some is their game against Wake Forest. A year ago, Stanford lost 24-17 to Wake Forest after leading 17-3 at halftime. While Wake Forest is looking for a new quarterback, they still have a good team and could surprise Stanford if the Cardinals don’t go in prepared.
Must Step Up
Stepfan Taylor – RB: It’s difficult to select anyone else who would need to step up as much as the guy replacing a Heisman trophy runner up. In this case Stepfan Taylor steps into the shoes vacated by Toby Gerhart and will need to be at least half as good if Stanford hopes to compete for the Pac-10 title. This team needs some offensive balance in order to take pressure off of sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck and Stepfan Taylor is the guy who can provide that offensive balance. At least, Stanford hopes so.
Heisman Candidate
Andrew Luck – QB: Should the Stanford Cardinals push for a Pac-10 title, it will be because of the offensive prowess and development of the redshirt sophomore quarterback. He will need to become a better decision-maker and become more wary of the hazards of running from the pocket. Should this development take place he would put up at least solid stats, potentially great stats, he will be following his teammate (Gerhart) to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony.
Sunday’s Star
Andrew Luck – QB: Andrew Luck has been a topic of great debate since the end of the NFL Draft in April. His arm strength good size and mobility have elevated his draft stock and the development mentioned earlier is really all that anyone is looking for. Some, like ESPN’s Todd McShay believe that he will end up being the top player taken in the 2011 draft, while others, including myself, question whether or not he will be able to make the leap in decision making that will be required of him to be worthy of that distinction. The good news for him is that even if he has a sub-par year this year, he still has two more years with which he can sharpen his skills and develop.
Bowl Game?
Stanford is one of three teams that will be competing for the privilege of playing in the Rose Bowl. If they don’t make it that far, they have the talent to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl game.
UCLA
2009 Recap
A roller coaster is the best way to describe the 2009 season for the Bruins of UCLA. They started off the season great with three consecutive wins against non-conference teams. However, once they hit their early conference schedule, they dropped five consecutive games and proved that they were far from being among elite. They finished the season off winning three of their last four and clinching a spot in the EagleBank Bowl. A game they won, defeating the Temple Owls 30-21.
Schedule
It looks like UCLA will be having a difficult time breaking away from the middle of the Pac-10 this season. In addition to the difficult Pac-10 conference schedule, the Bruins will also have to face the offensive prowess of Houston and must travel to Austin to face the Longhorns of Texas. Fortunately, three of their six road games are against teams they can beat. Specifically, they play Kansas State, Washington and Arizona State on the road, allowing them to get their tougher opponents like USC, and Oregon State at home.
Potential Upsets
Like always, a win against USC would send shock waves through Southern California. However, victories against Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford or California would be a great newspaper clipping for Rick Neuheisel and his squad to pin up on the chalkboard this season.
Pitfall Games
The Bruins need to beware getting complacent against teams like Kansas State and Washington. Either of these teams could end the Bruins hope for a bowl game in a single Saturday; particularly Washington, which has been making strides towards becoming a legitimate contender within the Pac-10.
Must Step Up
Kevin Prince – QB: This is one of those situations where the offense to take huge steps forward to compensate to make up for the inexperience on defense. While it could easily be said that the new defensive tackles should be occupying this spot due to the loss of Brian Price, the simple fact is that the defense is returning only 5 starters while the offense returns 8. It just isn’t likely that the defense will be up to snuff this year. Since this is the case, the offense, in particular the passing offense will need to step up and provide a spark that this team needs to become a contender this year.
Heisman Candidate
Nelson Rosario – WR: While not a true burner, Nelson Rosario has great size (6’5”) and enough speed to average upwards of 17 yards per reception last season. That’s enough to keep opposing defensive coordinators up a few extra hours at night. He really has no chance to win the trophy, given the fact that he doesn’t return punts or kicks and UCLA isn’t likely to be in the national title hunt, but he has the best chance of those on his team.
Sunday’s Star
Rahim Moore – S: While questions were swirling around Taylor Mays and whether or not he had the athleticism to play safety on the next level last year, across the city, Rahim Moore was giving quarterbacks fits with his range and speed from the safety position. Now a junior, Moore has the ability to declare for the draft following this season and all indications are that he will if can have a similar season to last year, where he lead the country in interceptions with 10.
Bowl Game?
UCLA has a better chance of making a bowl game with USC being banned from participation in bowl games; however they will still need to pull together enough wins to qualify. It’s likely they’ll be able to qualify, but barely so. I would expect them to finish the regular season around the same record as last season 6-6.
USC
2009 Recap
2009 saw USC topple from the ranks of college football’s elite and into the mediocrity of a 9-4 season. It became fairly evident that this was not the kind of USC team that most expected it to be when the Trojans went to Husky Stadium and left defeated. The Trojans then went on to lose three more games, all in conference. They were blown out by Oregon and Stanford and lost a close game against Arizona in the regular season finale. On the bright side they did show that they still had plenty of talent still on the roster and beat some good teams in Oregon State and Ohio State.
Schedule
While their conference Schedule is about as difficult as usual, going on the road to face Arizona, Stanford and Oregon State while facing Oregon, California and Notre Dame at home, their non-conference schedule is very weak. No, Notre Dame doesn’t count as a non-conference game since they play them every year. They go on the road to play Hawaii and Minnesota and welcome Virginia into the LA Coliseum. While none of these teams are terrible, none are expected to even compete for a conference championship.
Potential Upsets
Wow, it’s strange to hear the USC could pull an upset huh? They’ve been at or near the top of national polls and the Pac-10 so often that it is just natural to say that they are the ones who would be upset. However, this year they have someone to hunt rather than just be hunted. Their games against Oregon and Oregon State will have a massive impact on who wins the Pac-10 title this season. In my mind it would be an upset, albeit a minor one, if USC were to win either of those games. A victory at Stanford would also be considered an upset, though I view the two teams as being more evenly matched than most.
Pitfall Games
USC fell into the trap of underestimating teams last year in their losses to Washington and Arizona, and those same teams are most likely to pull the upset against USC this year. Arizona especially, since USC will have to go on the road to play them.
Must Step Up
Tyron Smith – OT: While there has been a lot of turnover in the secondary, the fact of the matter is that Seantrel Henderson, the top offensive line recruit in the country, decided to leave for Miami (Fl.) While Henderson wasn’t expected to start in his freshman year, his mere presence acted as a force to push Smith and other offensive lineman to play at the highest level. Now with Henderson gone and quarterback Matt Barkley entering his sophomore year, it is more important than ever for Smith to step up and become a lockdown tackle.
Heisman Candidate
Matt Barkley – QB: It’s a lot like other teams with Barkley. While Barkley has given little indication that he is capable of putting up the kind of numbers that would be required for him to be seriously considered for the Heisman trophy, if anyone on this team is going to compete for this award, it is going to be Barkley. He is the key to USC succeeding, and the more that USC succeeds, the more momentum Barkley gains on the road to the Heisman.
Sunday’s Star
Jurrell Casey – DT: Considered one of the best raising prospects for next year’s draft, Jurrell Casey is a somewhat undersized Defensive Tackle who showed great quickness and explosion off the line. He currently shows more potential than actual production, but that is often the way that Defensive Tackle prospects are. He comes into the season already highly touted, and could become the next Sedrick Ellis (that is, a USC Defensive Tackle being taking in the top ten in the next NFL Draft). This year is crucial for his stock due to the stiff penalties related to the NCAA sanctions.
Bowl Game?
Will they actually make a bowl game? No. The sanctions leveled against them forbid that. However, they will likely have a good enough record to qualify.
Washington
2009 Recap
2009 proved to be a major stepping stone for the progress of the Washington program. While the Huskies continued to struggle against the current powers of the Pac-10 (Oregon and Oregon State), they succeeded in pulling a big upset against USC and blowout California in their season finale. Quarterback Jake Locker took gigantic steps forward in his development and the offense broke into the top 70, the passing offense ranking 40th in the country. The defense also made strides, but not as big as the offense made.
Schedule
Should the Washington Huskies start the season 4-0 and not be ranked in the top ten of the AP poll, then it’ll be proof of bias in the voting system. With the exception of Syracuse, the Huskies have to start off against three of the toughest teams in the country. They have to play BYU (ask Sam Bradford how tough this team is) and USC on the road and also have to welcome Nebraska into Husky Stadium. After all of that, they still have to face Oregon and California on the Road and Stanford and Oregon State at home. Should they emerge from these games without a loss, then they should absolutely be in a New Year’s Day bowl game.
Potential Upsets
All of the previously listed games would be major upsets, so I think there is little reason to continue here.
Pitfall Games
As much as the previously mentioned games would be upsets, the remaining games are all possible pitfalls. While Syracuse has had little success in the past few years, among their few successes, they have found ways to pull big upsets, like they did against Rutgers a year ago and Louisville in 2007. Arizona and UCLA are both dangerous teams as well, especially playing at Arizona.
Must Step Up
Defensive Ends: Washington is fortunate enough to have the vast majority of their starters returning. No one position has lost as much starting experience as the Defensive End position has. When a team that only had 29 sacks last season suddenly loses 13 of those sacks in the graduation of Darrion Jones (2) and the drafting of Daniel Te’o-Nesheim (11), that team needs to have the new starters step-up. Talia Crichton (So.), De’Shon Matthews (Sr.), Cameron Elisara (Sr. who also plays on the interior), Everrette Thompson (Jr.) and Kalani Aldrich (Jr.) will try to combine for a solid pass-rush. If this defense is going to be able to support its offense, the pass rush must be able to keep the pressure up and give the secondary opportunities to make plays on the ball and force turnovers.
Heisman Candidate
Jake Locker – QB: If any player on the Washington roster has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy, it’s Jake Locker. His continued development would bring with it the kinds of offensive numbers that voters are looking for in a Heisman candidate. He will need to improve greatly (in the area of 50 touchdown passes) for him to be considered since Washington is unlikely to be competing for a BCS title.
Sunday’s Star
Jake Locker – QB: Given all the hype that has been building around Locker since he decided to remain in school rather than come out for last year’s draft, it would be remiss of me to not discuss him as a prospect. He has great arm strength, good mobility and has recently shown the most important quality a quarterback prospect can show, in my eyes, the ability to improve with experience and coaching. With all of those great qualities, there is still one issue that makes me hesitant to refer to him as a great prospect. That is that he has a bit of an injury history. I need to see him start another season without being injured for me to acknowledge him as a great prospect.
Bowl Game?
If Washington win at least two of those tough games mentioned in the scheduling section, they will find themselves somewhere in the bowl mix. However, I think those games will prove to be too much for the Huskies. No Bowl Game this year.
Washington State
2009 Recap
2009 continued a trend of futility that has enveloped Pullman since 2004. The Cougars could not break themselves out of the mire of their own past failures. They ranked in the bottom sixth in the country in every major statistical category. If not for an overtime victory over SMU, the Cougars would have gone winless this season. Every other game saw the cougars lose by an average of 26.4 points per game. Their offense was horribly ineffective which didn’t help the defense which was little more than a sieve. Some positives steps were taken with freshman quarterback Jeff Tuel gaining valuable experience, however there is little reason to believe that they will overcome their shortcomings to make any sort of an impact this season.
Schedule
The upcoming schedule does help the Cougars somewhat. The only teams that will be legitimately contending for the PAC-10 title, that the Cougars have to face on the road are Stanford and Oregon State. They get USC, Oregon and California at home. That being said, the Cougars aren’t likely to beat any of those opponents and have only game on their schedule where they are a favorite.
Potential Upsets
It’s unlikely that the Cougars will pull any major upsets, but they still have a few games where they could surprise some people and burst a few bowl bubbles. While a victory over Arizona State at Sun Devil Stadium wouldn’t be considered a major victory for most, but it would be a great win for this Cougar team. They also have the chance to take down a middling UCLA team in the Rose Bowl.
Pitfall Games
You know there’s trouble when the only game that your team is favored in is a game against an FCS (I-AA) school. In this case, Washington State’s second game of the season against Montana State in Martin Stadium, is the only game where, should Washington State lose, it would be considered an upset.
Must Step Up
Jeff Tuel – QB: While the defense was the weaker unit, there are no individual defensive players or units that can change the production of that unit as much as Jeff Tuel could change the production of the offense. Tuel has shown a strong arm, good football savvy and an ability to escape the pocket when pressure gets too hot. All he needs to do now is stay healthy and get a full season as a starter. If he plays well, Washington State may be able to break the four win mark and possibly even win a road game for the first time in two years.
Heisman Candidate
Jeff Tuel – QB: If Tuel is able to step up; he will be the only member of this team to be even remotely considered for the Heisman. Though his actual chances are non-existent, it’s still worth noting that he is that important to his team.
Sunday’s Star
Travis Long – DE: It’s a sad state indeed when the best NFL prospect is a sophomore defensive end that has minimal experience. At 6-4 and over 250 lb. Long has ideal size to play Defensive End in the NFL. Time will tell if he continues to make strides towards the NFL.
Bowl Game?
It’s not very likely that Washington State will overcome enough of their obstacles to reach a bowl game.
Conference Champion
There are three main contenders for the Pac-10 title, USC, Oregon and Oregon State. USC has benefit of returning their starting quarterback and having a bunch talent who are ready to step up and compete for starting jobs. But the fact of the matter is that USC has been steadily declining in the ranks of college football since Vince Young ran through them in the 2006 Rose Bowl. It started with getting upset against teams they should have beaten in ’06, ’07, and ’08. Then when the majority of the team left a year ago, they fell down to the mediocre 8-4 team that they were. I just don’t think that USC will be able to overcome their other contenders this season. That narrows it down to Oregon and Oregon State. While I think Oregon’s offensive system is more likely to produce big numbers, Oregon State is returning more starters and can support their new quarterback better. Ultimately I think that makes the difference and Oregon State will reign as Pac-10 Champions this season. Stanford is also a dark horse contender.
BCS Title Contenders
USC
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Top 5 Heisman Candidates
JacQuizz Rogers – 22 total touchdowns last season combined with over 2,000 all-purpose yards put the younger Rogers brother in an excellent position to compete for a Heisman Trophy.
LaMichael James – LaMichael James has a great ability to break big plays and will likely be able to put together a great season regardless of who the quarterback is.
Matt Barkley – If USC is going to compete for a Pac-10 title, it will be because Matt Barkley has put together the type of season that will get the attention of Heisman voters.
Jake Locker – If Locker continues to develop, he should put together strong enough numbers that the Heisman committee will take notice.
Andrew Luck – Andre Luck is very much like Jake Locker, if Stanford has a great season, it will be because Luck took the necessary developmental steps and had a great season.
Arizona
2009 Recap
While the Wildcats were somewhat inconsistent in their play during the course of last season, they were able to pull some impressive upsets, including victories over USC and Oregon State (both on the road) and push the 2009 Pac-10 Champions, Oregon, to the limit in a double overtime loss. Also, even in their losses, they were never really embarrassed until their loss in the Holiday Bowl to Nebraska. Before that game, the worst margin of defeat was a ten point loss to Iowa, showing that the Wildcats are able to compete on the same level as the conference’s elite.
Schedule
With the exception of having to face Iowa in their third game, Arizona’s non-conference schedule is weak. Toledo and the Citadel are hardly worth talking up. Another benefit to their schedule is the fact that they only have to travel to play the previously mentioned Toledo, Washington State, UCLA, Stanford and Oregon. With the exception of Oregon and Stanford, Arizona should be favored in all of those games.
Potential Upsets
The Wildcats pulled upsets against USC, Oregon State and Stanford last year, proving that they are a dangerous team to underestimate. All of these teams should be on upset watch when facing the Arizona Wildcats, as should the Oregon Ducks. This by no means indicates that Arizona will be competing for a conference title, but they are a dangerous team.
Pitfall Games
Washington and California could both surprise Arizona if the Wildcats become complacent. There also is the Arizona State game which is always a tough battle even if the scoreboard doesn’t always reflect that fact.
Must Step Up
Linebacker Corp.: All three starters in the linebacker corps have been replaced with younger more inexperienced players. If the Wildcats are to compete in the Pac-10 this season, they are going to need their defense to step up and repeat the performance they had a year ago, when they ranked 25th in the nation in total defense. To do this, they need to have at least one of their linebackers become an impact player.
Heisman Candidate
Nick Foles – QB: This is going to be a bit of a trend in this category. Foles, like many other Heisman candidates are going to be the key to the success of their teams. In this case, Arizona uses a two back system and is replacing the majority of their defense, so the passing game will be the main source of energy and excitement for the Wildcats this season. In order for it to be successful, Nick Foles is going to have to keep putting up big numbers and keeping the opposing defenses off balance.
Sunday’s Star
Trevin Wade – CB: While he may not register as highly on the draft boards as some other corners, Trevin Wade is looking to continue a strong tradition of Arizona corners. He is coming off a season where he picked off five passes and is looking to push himself to the top of the All-Pac-10 team as a corner. With his speed and savvy he should be able to pull it off too.
Bowl Game?
Arizona is a strong enough team to make a middle of the pack bowl game, perhaps returning to the Holiday Bowl.
Arizona State
2009 Recap
The Sun Devils of Tempe have little to celebrate after last season. They only won two games in-conference, and one of them was against Washington State. The only win they could remotely hang their hat on was a victory against Washington, their last victory of the season. On the bright side, their defense ranked in the top 30 in the nation in the four major defensive categories. Those being rushing yards, passing yards, total yards and scoring. It’s not much, but it’s something they can try and build on.
Schedule
The Sun Devils have a very similar schedule to last season. All of the in conference games, save the Washington State game should favor the opponent. The only non-conference game of note this season would be the week when they need to travel to Madison to play the Badgers. It’s a sad state when a BCS conference team has to schedule two games against FCS teams.
Potential Upsets
The only games where Arizona State could potentially pull an upset are in the games against Arizona and Washington. Both games are against middling Pac-10 teams and on the road. Should the Sun Devils pull either of those games out, it would be very damaging to the case of either team.
Pitfall Games
The only potential pitfall on the Arizona State Schedule is the game against Washington State. However, that is only because Washington State is the only team that isn’t equal to or better than the Sun Devils.
Must Step Up
Steven Threet – QB: This is just the first of many quarterbacks you’re going to see in this section. While there’s no guarantee that the Michigan transfer will win the job from sophomore Brock Osweiler, he has the most experience from the 8 games he started for Michigan back in 2008. That experience will be the difference in the quarterback battle (in my opinion), but it is yet to be seen if it will be enough to carry the offense. In that way he needs to step up and be a unifying force on that offense, since there are so few returning starters on offense.
Heisman Candidate
Vontaze Burfict – LB: This is a horrible sign. When your best chance at getting a Heisman trophy winner on your team is a sophomore linebacker who will never be given serious consideration no matter how good he is, you know you’re team is in need of a serious influx of talent. To Burfict himself, he does need to improve his pass coverage a bit, but otherwise he is an all-around great linebacker who should improve with experience.
Sunday’s Star
Lawrence Guy – DT: Perhaps one of the most underrated players in the Pac-10, Lawrence Guy is a massive Defensive Tackle who can regularly take up two or three blockers at any given time. While he isn’t an overly great pass rusher, he has the ability to collapse the pocket and take up blocks, free other pass rushers to do their job. He has the potential to be an All-American come season’s end and should he achieve that honor, he might bolt for the NFL early.
Bowl Game?
There is almost no chance that the Sun Devils will make a bowl game this season. This will be a year of the Sun Devils gaining experience and building some chemistry on offense.
California
2009 Recap
2009 was nothing special for California. They really didn’t take a big step back, but at the same time they failed to make any major strides towards being major contenders for the Pac-10 title. Aside from getting blown out by Washington at the end of the regular season, none of their losses (against USC, Oregon and Oregon State) were all that surprising. At the same time the only win that wasn’t necessarily expected was their victory over Stanford. It was basically a year for California to get experience younger players. Useful since Jahvid Best, their best offensive talent on the team, is now in Detroit.
Schedule
California has only a mediocre, if not easy non-conference schedule this season. Only one team of the three is worth mentioning is Nevada, who California has to face on the road. That only adds to the gauntlet that California has to face on the road. In addition to Nevada, who is no slouch, they also have to face USC, Oregon State and Arizona on the road. If the Golden Bears can somehow pull out three of those four games, they could be in good position to make a run at the Pac-10 title.
Potential Upsets
Well, USC, Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State are going to be heard about a lot in these sections; since they are, in my opinion, the four teams likely to compete for the Pac-10 title. I do think that California could pull the upset on any one of these teams, but not more than two. I just don’t think they have the ability to overcome all of their shortcomings to defeat these teams on more than one occasion.
Pitfall Games
The Golden Bears need to beware Nevada and Washington. Either of those games could knock them from the hunt for the Pac-10 title. Another game they should keep their collective eye to is the UCLA game. This one of those rare instances where I really can’t backup why I feel this way, I just do. It’s completely a gut call, which I normally don’t rely on. Maybe it’s the fact that California has to go to Arizona the week before and to USC the week after, possibly allowing for complacency. It’s just a feeling, but I think they need to be careful in that game.
Must Step Up
Kevin Riley – QB: This case is pretty simple. The passing offense was not particularly good last year and that caused an overreliance on the running game. This year, with Shane Vereen being the new feature back, Riley has to come forward and be an offensive leader, to draw pressure off the running game and to allow the defense to get a rest when they need it.
Heisman Candidate
Shane Vereen – RB: This one is kind of by default. There is no other great offensive force on the California team and Vereen is the most likely to put up the kind of numbers that the Heisman committee would be looking for. While not quite the break-away runner that Jahvid Best was, Vereen can still run with the best of college football and has enough power to make hard to bring down.
Sunday’s Star
Mike Mohamed – LB: For a conference that is so dominated by offense, you’d think there wouldn’t be as much defensive talent in this section would you? In this case, it is highly justified. Mike Mohamed was able to not only lead the team in tackles, but also had two sacks, six tackles for a loss and three interceptions, showing his amazing versatility. His athleticism and somewhat smaller size may restrict him going into the league, but he is hard enough working player to make it work.
Bowl Game?
California will most likely reach a Bowl game, but it will still likely be a middle of the road season, them the Golden Bears failing to push for a major bowl bid.
Oregon
2009 Recap
2009 proved to be a major proving ground for the Oregon Ducks. While USC faltered, and really seemed to fail to recover from being beaten by Washington, Oregon pushed through their opening day loss to Boise State (which resulted in the loss of their star running back LeGarrette Blount)to win every other game they played with the exception of one. Their nine point loss at Stanford didn’t hurt their cause to win the Pac-10 title, since it was their only in-conference loss. While the rash of arrests during and following the season has overshadowed the success that this team had, they can still take pride in the fact that they won a Pac-10 title and are among the favorites to win another one.
Schedule
Oregon has perhaps the easiest schedule of the three main contenders for the Pac-10 title. The only difficult road games that have appeared on their schedule are games against USC and Oregon State. There will be a challenge for them going across the country to face Tennessee; however Tennessee may not be able to really challenge them, given the new coaching staff.
Potential Upsets
Not really any potential upsets in this group. Oregon is just that good this season, in my mind. Good enough that they are at least on even footing with every team they play this season.
Pitfall Games
While the game against Tennessee is not likely to challenge Oregon, the Ducks do need to be wary of becoming too confident and the effects of extended travel. The game may not be expected to be a problem, however with the travel and the fact that the SEC is the toughest conference in the country, Tennessee may just surprise the Ducks. Oddly enough their first game against New Mexico could be a danger, if for other reason because LaMichael James will be suspended for that game.
Must Step Up
Darron Thomas – QB: While Nate Costa is the more experienced player and the better thrower, Thomas has no extended history of knee injuries and fits better into the offense that Oregon runs. It will take some time for him to adjust to the speed of the game and there is no guarantee that he will win the job, but I think he gives Oregon the best chance to repeat as Pac-10 Champions. But he will need take big steps forward if the Ducks want to compete with Oregon state and USC.
Heisman Candidate
LaMichael James – RB: Even though he will be suspended for a game due to legal troubles, LaMichael James is the player through which most of the team’s offense will be focused. With a new quarterback playing, it will be as important as ever for him to have a dominant season. If he can reproduce the kind of season he had last year, with the spotlight on him this time, he should receive serious Heisman consideration.
Sunday’s Star
Casey Matthews – LB: This one all comes down to bloodlines. Casey Matthews, brother of Clay Matthews Jr. has all the experience one could want from a senior linebacker and is the kind of work-hard player that his dad was. He doesn’t have as much athletic ability as his brother, but is still just as good in his own way. If his name wasn’t Matthews, he would probably be overlooked for someone with more potential, but as it stands he will make one team very happy come next year. LaMichael James would be here, except for the fact that he is having legal difficulties and, as was seen in the case of his former teammate LeGarrette Blount, that can kill one’s draft stock.
Bowl Game?
Oregon is one of three teams that will be competing for the privilege of playing in the Rose Bowl. If they don’t make it that far, they have the talent to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl game.
Oregon State
2009 Recap
Aside from back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Arizona, Oregon State had an excellent season, they were able to keep it close with the major powers in the conference, and solidly win games against opponents who were inferior. They were even able to show dominance both on the road and at home, losing only two games in either situation.
Schedule
If Oregon State can come out of their first three games undefeated then they deserve to be in the top five in the nation. The only game of those three that comes against a team that wasn’t in a BCS bowl game last year is their game against Louisville. But they still have to take on both TCU and Boise State in the same month then go on the road to face Arizona and Stanford. However, with Stanford being the only other conference title contender that they need to face on the road, getting USC and Oregon at home.
Potential Upsets
Not really any potential upsets in this group. Oregon State is just that good this season, in my mind. Good enough that they are at least on even footing with every team they play this season.
Pitfall Games
Well, when you have so few games that could be considered upsets should Oregon State; you have to expect that there would be a plethora of potential pitfalls. Along with Oregon, Stanford and USC, Oregon state needs to beware becoming complacent against Washington and Arizona, though it’s less likely that Arizona will catch them off-guard a second time. Some may considered Boise State a potential pitfall; however those people weren’t paying attention to how well Boise state played against Oregon last year.
Must Step Up
Ryan Katz/Peter Lalich – QB: With last year’s starter Sean Canfield now in training camp hoping to hold onto a roster spot with the Saints, Ryan Katz (sophomore) or Peter Lalich (Junior) need to make an impact and provide enough of a passing threat that teams will not be able to just stack up against JacQuizz Rodgers. That shouldn’t be too incredibly difficult, since the top receiver from last year, James Rodgers returns and JacQuizz himself is an excellent pass catcher.
Heisman Candidate
JacQuizz Rodgers – RB: This one is a no-brainer. JacQuizz Rodgers had over 2,000 all-purpose yards and 22 touchdowns last season. Should he replicate that production this year, he will be given serious Heisman consideration.
Sunday’s Star
Stephen Paea – DT: Stephen Paea will probably be known as this year’s Brian Price. While he may not put up the kind of statistics that Price put up last season, but he will be the kind of player who will fly under the radar during the season, but then as the season wraps up, the experts will look back at his season and begin judging him as one of the best defensive tackles in that draft. He has the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage and disrupt running lanes. Keep an eye on him, cause he could be really special.
Bowl Game?
Oregon State is one of three teams that will be competing for the privilege of playing in the Rose Bowl. If they don’t make it that far, they have the talent to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl game.
Stanford
2009 Recap
2009 was the season when Stanford dug themselves out of the doldrums of losing football and found their way into the ranks of the top four teams in the Pac-10. While they did four games, they were never really blown out nor did it feel like they were in over their head. They also had impressive victories over conference powerhouses USC and Oregon, blowing USC out at the LA Coliseum. While they did lose their bowl game against Oklahoma, it was still the first bowl game they had been to since 2001.
Schedule
The Cardinals of Stanford got a fairly nice draw when it comes to scheduling this season. They face two of their three major competitors for the Pac-10 title (USC and Oregon State) at home, while only a trip to Oregon would seem to upset their road schedule.
Potential Upsets
Those three games against Oregon, USC and Oregon State could be considered upsets should Stanford wins those games. It’s tricky to say because of how close all of these teams are to one another in terms of talent.
Pitfall Games
California, Arizona and Washington could all turn into upsets, the only non-conference game that surprise some is their game against Wake Forest. A year ago, Stanford lost 24-17 to Wake Forest after leading 17-3 at halftime. While Wake Forest is looking for a new quarterback, they still have a good team and could surprise Stanford if the Cardinals don’t go in prepared.
Must Step Up
Stepfan Taylor – RB: It’s difficult to select anyone else who would need to step up as much as the guy replacing a Heisman trophy runner up. In this case Stepfan Taylor steps into the shoes vacated by Toby Gerhart and will need to be at least half as good if Stanford hopes to compete for the Pac-10 title. This team needs some offensive balance in order to take pressure off of sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck and Stepfan Taylor is the guy who can provide that offensive balance. At least, Stanford hopes so.
Heisman Candidate
Andrew Luck – QB: Should the Stanford Cardinals push for a Pac-10 title, it will be because of the offensive prowess and development of the redshirt sophomore quarterback. He will need to become a better decision-maker and become more wary of the hazards of running from the pocket. Should this development take place he would put up at least solid stats, potentially great stats, he will be following his teammate (Gerhart) to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation ceremony.
Sunday’s Star
Andrew Luck – QB: Andrew Luck has been a topic of great debate since the end of the NFL Draft in April. His arm strength good size and mobility have elevated his draft stock and the development mentioned earlier is really all that anyone is looking for. Some, like ESPN’s Todd McShay believe that he will end up being the top player taken in the 2011 draft, while others, including myself, question whether or not he will be able to make the leap in decision making that will be required of him to be worthy of that distinction. The good news for him is that even if he has a sub-par year this year, he still has two more years with which he can sharpen his skills and develop.
Bowl Game?
Stanford is one of three teams that will be competing for the privilege of playing in the Rose Bowl. If they don’t make it that far, they have the talent to be playing in a New Year’s Day Bowl game.
UCLA
2009 Recap
A roller coaster is the best way to describe the 2009 season for the Bruins of UCLA. They started off the season great with three consecutive wins against non-conference teams. However, once they hit their early conference schedule, they dropped five consecutive games and proved that they were far from being among elite. They finished the season off winning three of their last four and clinching a spot in the EagleBank Bowl. A game they won, defeating the Temple Owls 30-21.
Schedule
It looks like UCLA will be having a difficult time breaking away from the middle of the Pac-10 this season. In addition to the difficult Pac-10 conference schedule, the Bruins will also have to face the offensive prowess of Houston and must travel to Austin to face the Longhorns of Texas. Fortunately, three of their six road games are against teams they can beat. Specifically, they play Kansas State, Washington and Arizona State on the road, allowing them to get their tougher opponents like USC, and Oregon State at home.
Potential Upsets
Like always, a win against USC would send shock waves through Southern California. However, victories against Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford or California would be a great newspaper clipping for Rick Neuheisel and his squad to pin up on the chalkboard this season.
Pitfall Games
The Bruins need to beware getting complacent against teams like Kansas State and Washington. Either of these teams could end the Bruins hope for a bowl game in a single Saturday; particularly Washington, which has been making strides towards becoming a legitimate contender within the Pac-10.
Must Step Up
Kevin Prince – QB: This is one of those situations where the offense to take huge steps forward to compensate to make up for the inexperience on defense. While it could easily be said that the new defensive tackles should be occupying this spot due to the loss of Brian Price, the simple fact is that the defense is returning only 5 starters while the offense returns 8. It just isn’t likely that the defense will be up to snuff this year. Since this is the case, the offense, in particular the passing offense will need to step up and provide a spark that this team needs to become a contender this year.
Heisman Candidate
Nelson Rosario – WR: While not a true burner, Nelson Rosario has great size (6’5”) and enough speed to average upwards of 17 yards per reception last season. That’s enough to keep opposing defensive coordinators up a few extra hours at night. He really has no chance to win the trophy, given the fact that he doesn’t return punts or kicks and UCLA isn’t likely to be in the national title hunt, but he has the best chance of those on his team.
Sunday’s Star
Rahim Moore – S: While questions were swirling around Taylor Mays and whether or not he had the athleticism to play safety on the next level last year, across the city, Rahim Moore was giving quarterbacks fits with his range and speed from the safety position. Now a junior, Moore has the ability to declare for the draft following this season and all indications are that he will if can have a similar season to last year, where he lead the country in interceptions with 10.
Bowl Game?
UCLA has a better chance of making a bowl game with USC being banned from participation in bowl games; however they will still need to pull together enough wins to qualify. It’s likely they’ll be able to qualify, but barely so. I would expect them to finish the regular season around the same record as last season 6-6.
USC
2009 Recap
2009 saw USC topple from the ranks of college football’s elite and into the mediocrity of a 9-4 season. It became fairly evident that this was not the kind of USC team that most expected it to be when the Trojans went to Husky Stadium and left defeated. The Trojans then went on to lose three more games, all in conference. They were blown out by Oregon and Stanford and lost a close game against Arizona in the regular season finale. On the bright side they did show that they still had plenty of talent still on the roster and beat some good teams in Oregon State and Ohio State.
Schedule
While their conference Schedule is about as difficult as usual, going on the road to face Arizona, Stanford and Oregon State while facing Oregon, California and Notre Dame at home, their non-conference schedule is very weak. No, Notre Dame doesn’t count as a non-conference game since they play them every year. They go on the road to play Hawaii and Minnesota and welcome Virginia into the LA Coliseum. While none of these teams are terrible, none are expected to even compete for a conference championship.
Potential Upsets
Wow, it’s strange to hear the USC could pull an upset huh? They’ve been at or near the top of national polls and the Pac-10 so often that it is just natural to say that they are the ones who would be upset. However, this year they have someone to hunt rather than just be hunted. Their games against Oregon and Oregon State will have a massive impact on who wins the Pac-10 title this season. In my mind it would be an upset, albeit a minor one, if USC were to win either of those games. A victory at Stanford would also be considered an upset, though I view the two teams as being more evenly matched than most.
Pitfall Games
USC fell into the trap of underestimating teams last year in their losses to Washington and Arizona, and those same teams are most likely to pull the upset against USC this year. Arizona especially, since USC will have to go on the road to play them.
Must Step Up
Tyron Smith – OT: While there has been a lot of turnover in the secondary, the fact of the matter is that Seantrel Henderson, the top offensive line recruit in the country, decided to leave for Miami (Fl.) While Henderson wasn’t expected to start in his freshman year, his mere presence acted as a force to push Smith and other offensive lineman to play at the highest level. Now with Henderson gone and quarterback Matt Barkley entering his sophomore year, it is more important than ever for Smith to step up and become a lockdown tackle.
Heisman Candidate
Matt Barkley – QB: It’s a lot like other teams with Barkley. While Barkley has given little indication that he is capable of putting up the kind of numbers that would be required for him to be seriously considered for the Heisman trophy, if anyone on this team is going to compete for this award, it is going to be Barkley. He is the key to USC succeeding, and the more that USC succeeds, the more momentum Barkley gains on the road to the Heisman.
Sunday’s Star
Jurrell Casey – DT: Considered one of the best raising prospects for next year’s draft, Jurrell Casey is a somewhat undersized Defensive Tackle who showed great quickness and explosion off the line. He currently shows more potential than actual production, but that is often the way that Defensive Tackle prospects are. He comes into the season already highly touted, and could become the next Sedrick Ellis (that is, a USC Defensive Tackle being taking in the top ten in the next NFL Draft). This year is crucial for his stock due to the stiff penalties related to the NCAA sanctions.
Bowl Game?
Will they actually make a bowl game? No. The sanctions leveled against them forbid that. However, they will likely have a good enough record to qualify.
Washington
2009 Recap
2009 proved to be a major stepping stone for the progress of the Washington program. While the Huskies continued to struggle against the current powers of the Pac-10 (Oregon and Oregon State), they succeeded in pulling a big upset against USC and blowout California in their season finale. Quarterback Jake Locker took gigantic steps forward in his development and the offense broke into the top 70, the passing offense ranking 40th in the country. The defense also made strides, but not as big as the offense made.
Schedule
Should the Washington Huskies start the season 4-0 and not be ranked in the top ten of the AP poll, then it’ll be proof of bias in the voting system. With the exception of Syracuse, the Huskies have to start off against three of the toughest teams in the country. They have to play BYU (ask Sam Bradford how tough this team is) and USC on the road and also have to welcome Nebraska into Husky Stadium. After all of that, they still have to face Oregon and California on the Road and Stanford and Oregon State at home. Should they emerge from these games without a loss, then they should absolutely be in a New Year’s Day bowl game.
Potential Upsets
All of the previously listed games would be major upsets, so I think there is little reason to continue here.
Pitfall Games
As much as the previously mentioned games would be upsets, the remaining games are all possible pitfalls. While Syracuse has had little success in the past few years, among their few successes, they have found ways to pull big upsets, like they did against Rutgers a year ago and Louisville in 2007. Arizona and UCLA are both dangerous teams as well, especially playing at Arizona.
Must Step Up
Defensive Ends: Washington is fortunate enough to have the vast majority of their starters returning. No one position has lost as much starting experience as the Defensive End position has. When a team that only had 29 sacks last season suddenly loses 13 of those sacks in the graduation of Darrion Jones (2) and the drafting of Daniel Te’o-Nesheim (11), that team needs to have the new starters step-up. Talia Crichton (So.), De’Shon Matthews (Sr.), Cameron Elisara (Sr. who also plays on the interior), Everrette Thompson (Jr.) and Kalani Aldrich (Jr.) will try to combine for a solid pass-rush. If this defense is going to be able to support its offense, the pass rush must be able to keep the pressure up and give the secondary opportunities to make plays on the ball and force turnovers.
Heisman Candidate
Jake Locker – QB: If any player on the Washington roster has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy, it’s Jake Locker. His continued development would bring with it the kinds of offensive numbers that voters are looking for in a Heisman candidate. He will need to improve greatly (in the area of 50 touchdown passes) for him to be considered since Washington is unlikely to be competing for a BCS title.
Sunday’s Star
Jake Locker – QB: Given all the hype that has been building around Locker since he decided to remain in school rather than come out for last year’s draft, it would be remiss of me to not discuss him as a prospect. He has great arm strength, good mobility and has recently shown the most important quality a quarterback prospect can show, in my eyes, the ability to improve with experience and coaching. With all of those great qualities, there is still one issue that makes me hesitant to refer to him as a great prospect. That is that he has a bit of an injury history. I need to see him start another season without being injured for me to acknowledge him as a great prospect.
Bowl Game?
If Washington win at least two of those tough games mentioned in the scheduling section, they will find themselves somewhere in the bowl mix. However, I think those games will prove to be too much for the Huskies. No Bowl Game this year.
Washington State
2009 Recap
2009 continued a trend of futility that has enveloped Pullman since 2004. The Cougars could not break themselves out of the mire of their own past failures. They ranked in the bottom sixth in the country in every major statistical category. If not for an overtime victory over SMU, the Cougars would have gone winless this season. Every other game saw the cougars lose by an average of 26.4 points per game. Their offense was horribly ineffective which didn’t help the defense which was little more than a sieve. Some positives steps were taken with freshman quarterback Jeff Tuel gaining valuable experience, however there is little reason to believe that they will overcome their shortcomings to make any sort of an impact this season.
Schedule
The upcoming schedule does help the Cougars somewhat. The only teams that will be legitimately contending for the PAC-10 title, that the Cougars have to face on the road are Stanford and Oregon State. They get USC, Oregon and California at home. That being said, the Cougars aren’t likely to beat any of those opponents and have only game on their schedule where they are a favorite.
Potential Upsets
It’s unlikely that the Cougars will pull any major upsets, but they still have a few games where they could surprise some people and burst a few bowl bubbles. While a victory over Arizona State at Sun Devil Stadium wouldn’t be considered a major victory for most, but it would be a great win for this Cougar team. They also have the chance to take down a middling UCLA team in the Rose Bowl.
Pitfall Games
You know there’s trouble when the only game that your team is favored in is a game against an FCS (I-AA) school. In this case, Washington State’s second game of the season against Montana State in Martin Stadium, is the only game where, should Washington State lose, it would be considered an upset.
Must Step Up
Jeff Tuel – QB: While the defense was the weaker unit, there are no individual defensive players or units that can change the production of that unit as much as Jeff Tuel could change the production of the offense. Tuel has shown a strong arm, good football savvy and an ability to escape the pocket when pressure gets too hot. All he needs to do now is stay healthy and get a full season as a starter. If he plays well, Washington State may be able to break the four win mark and possibly even win a road game for the first time in two years.
Heisman Candidate
Jeff Tuel – QB: If Tuel is able to step up; he will be the only member of this team to be even remotely considered for the Heisman. Though his actual chances are non-existent, it’s still worth noting that he is that important to his team.
Sunday’s Star
Travis Long – DE: It’s a sad state indeed when the best NFL prospect is a sophomore defensive end that has minimal experience. At 6-4 and over 250 lb. Long has ideal size to play Defensive End in the NFL. Time will tell if he continues to make strides towards the NFL.
Bowl Game?
It’s not very likely that Washington State will overcome enough of their obstacles to reach a bowl game.
Conference Champion
There are three main contenders for the Pac-10 title, USC, Oregon and Oregon State. USC has benefit of returning their starting quarterback and having a bunch talent who are ready to step up and compete for starting jobs. But the fact of the matter is that USC has been steadily declining in the ranks of college football since Vince Young ran through them in the 2006 Rose Bowl. It started with getting upset against teams they should have beaten in ’06, ’07, and ’08. Then when the majority of the team left a year ago, they fell down to the mediocre 8-4 team that they were. I just don’t think that USC will be able to overcome their other contenders this season. That narrows it down to Oregon and Oregon State. While I think Oregon’s offensive system is more likely to produce big numbers, Oregon State is returning more starters and can support their new quarterback better. Ultimately I think that makes the difference and Oregon State will reign as Pac-10 Champions this season. Stanford is also a dark horse contender.
BCS Title Contenders
USC
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Top 5 Heisman Candidates
JacQuizz Rogers – 22 total touchdowns last season combined with over 2,000 all-purpose yards put the younger Rogers brother in an excellent position to compete for a Heisman Trophy.
LaMichael James – LaMichael James has a great ability to break big plays and will likely be able to put together a great season regardless of who the quarterback is.
Matt Barkley – If USC is going to compete for a Pac-10 title, it will be because Matt Barkley has put together the type of season that will get the attention of Heisman voters.
Jake Locker – If Locker continues to develop, he should put together strong enough numbers that the Heisman committee will take notice.
Andrew Luck – Andre Luck is very much like Jake Locker, if Stanford has a great season, it will be because Luck took the necessary developmental steps and had a great season.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Top Five Wide Receivers: Comparative
For some reason, recent filler discussions across the NFL media dome have been focusing on who the best players at any given position are. While this is fun for generating discussion, they are completely pointless. Yet, they still got me thinking about something that is a bit more unique. That bred this list. Not only do I name the receiver I believe to be the best in the league today, but I also compare them to all-time greats at the position. It brings a bit more history to a somewhat band concept. So without further padding:
Honorable Mention: Randy Moss = Don Hutson
Randy Moss is no longer a top 5 receiver in the NFL, but regardless of his off-the-field antics and occasion to not give full effort, he is still one of the top 3 receivers to ever play the game of football and the most talented wide receiver to ever play the game. Never has one player brought the type of size, speed and, by all accounts, intelligence to the position that Randy Moss does. That kind of combination made comparing him to any other player really difficult. However there was always one image that came into my mind when I thought about it, and that was the image of Don Hutson catching deep passes from Arnie Herber. If you don’t know a lot about Don Hutson, watch one or more these clips.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-top-ten/09000d5d8074cbf8/Top-Ten-Records-Never-Be-Broken-Don-Hutson-TD-leading-seasons
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-top-ten/09000d5d8074355e/Top-Ten-Single-Season-Performance-Don-Hutson
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d8012b87a/NFL-All-Time-Team-Don-Hutson
They should make the point.
While Moss hasn’t and probably could never be as dominant as Hutson was, he has been a very similar player. Like Hutson, he simply could out-run any and every player he played against and made defenses plan solely around him. In the worst case scenario, the quarterback could just throw it deep and Moss would always be able to get to the ball. Randy Moss and Don Hutson were both game changers. Only Jerry Rice can say that he was better than these two.
5. Greg Jennings = Charley Taylor
Before I get to the actual comparison, yes Greg Jennings is a better receiver than Randy Moss at this point in time. He has great hands, excellent route running and the speed to be a scoring threat from anywhere on the field. It’s that last quality that reminds me so much of the former Redskins receiver, Charley Taylor. Much like the former halfback turned wide receiver; Jennings has the ability to catch the ball anywhere on the field and score. However, unlike Bobby Mitchell and Bob Hayes who had a similar talent, Jennings has the ability to break tackles and is not quite as “sudden” as Mitchell and Hayes. In simpler terms, Jennings is less likely to wiggle through small opening to break big plays, but is more likely to run through tackles and fight for jump balls. His speed, refined route running and deceptive strength is all top notch.
4. Brandon Marshall = Cris Carter
Much like the former Vikings receiver, Brandon Marshall has just enough speed to be dangerous, but not enough to really be known as a blazer. What makes Marshall such a great receiver is the same thing that made Carter so dominant, his ability to catch a ton of passes. There are some stat heads who will say that he only caught so many balls because he was forced the ball. While it is true that he is one of the most targeted receivers in the league, he still produces better than most others who are similarly targeted, plus you don’t get that kind of attention without being extremely talented. While Marshall has yet to accumulate the kind of touchdown numbers that Carter became known for, he is actually producing far better than Carter did at the same point in his career. Marshall has had three 100 catch seasons, three 1,000+ receiving yards seasons and a single 10+ touchdown season. Carter had only one of these accomplishments during that same time period. He caught eleven touchdowns in 1989, his final season with the Philadelphia Eagles. Carter didn’t reach the 1,000 receiving yard mark until his seventh year in the NFL and he only caught more than 100 passes in two seasons for his whole career. If he keeps producing at his current rate, he’ll beat Carter to another prestige mark; induction into the Hall of Fame.
3. Larry Fitzgerald = Paul Warfield
This one was kind of tricky. Larry Fitzgerald has such a unique skill set that it is hard to think of player who is similar. Paul Warfield is definitely the closest I could come to Fitzgerald’s playing style. Both are receivers who have great speed and are able to outleap defenders for the ball. They both have solid hands that rarely allowed balls to touch thee ground. They both have used their size and leaping ability to make big plays as opposed to their excellent speed. Fitzgerald is probably the better leaper, but Warfield made bigger plays. Warfield’s career yards per reception were 20.1 while Fitzgerald’s is currently a paltry 11.3. While Fitzgerald’s numbers look a lot better at this point in his career than Warfield, but Warfield played on run dominant teams and was playing during a less pass intensive era of the NFL. Some may disagree with Fitzgerald being this low, but the next two receivers are just more balanced in terms of skill set.
2. Reggie Wayne = Steve Largent
This one was really difficult to do. Reggie Wayne has such a balanced skill set, that it makes it difficult to find an all-time great receiver who is similar. Most all-time greats have a defining characteristic, like Jerry Rice’s great hands or James Lofton’s blazing straight line speed. The only great I could think off that comes close to Wayne’s all-around skill set is former Seahawks great Steve Largent. Both Wayne and Largent have great hands and good speed, body control and toughness. Both have the ability to become unstoppable in spite of the best efforts of the corners he plays against. They both did this by simply outworking their opponents and having great chemistry with their quarterbacks. Ultimately, Wayne is much more talented than Largent was, but Largent overcame a bunch of obstacles to become the Hall of Famer he is. While Wayne’s numbers could be considered inflated because of how the league is nowadays and the quality of his quarterback, he still has to execute at a high level to be as a good as he is.
1. Andre Johnson = Terrell Owens
This was perhaps the easiest comparison that has appeared on this list. It’s pretty obvious why too, these two have very similar body frames, solid-to-great hands, depending on the season, and have been elite players at one point or another during their careers. Personality-wise, they seemingly couldn’t be more different. Owens has spent the majority of his career being a very me first person with a big mouth while Johnson seems to have taken a vow of silence. It is exceedingly rare to hear anything of note from him. However on the fields, whether it be a practice field or on game-day, these two consistently out-talent and out-work most of their compatriots. The thing that makes these receivers so special and so unique in the game their large frames; I can never remember receivers with such big, muscular frames being able to maintain the kind of speed that these two have had, for as long as they have been playing. It’s really this defining characteristic that makes them such a perfect match.
Author’s Note: Due to issues in the realm of life, the season reviews are indefinitely delayed. Honestly you’ll probably never see them on the blog, but they were a good learning experience. Thanks for the support.
Honorable Mention: Randy Moss = Don Hutson
Randy Moss is no longer a top 5 receiver in the NFL, but regardless of his off-the-field antics and occasion to not give full effort, he is still one of the top 3 receivers to ever play the game of football and the most talented wide receiver to ever play the game. Never has one player brought the type of size, speed and, by all accounts, intelligence to the position that Randy Moss does. That kind of combination made comparing him to any other player really difficult. However there was always one image that came into my mind when I thought about it, and that was the image of Don Hutson catching deep passes from Arnie Herber. If you don’t know a lot about Don Hutson, watch one or more these clips.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-top-ten/09000d5d8074cbf8/Top-Ten-Records-Never-Be-Broken-Don-Hutson-TD-leading-seasons
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-top-ten/09000d5d8074355e/Top-Ten-Single-Season-Performance-Don-Hutson
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d8012b87a/NFL-All-Time-Team-Don-Hutson
They should make the point.
While Moss hasn’t and probably could never be as dominant as Hutson was, he has been a very similar player. Like Hutson, he simply could out-run any and every player he played against and made defenses plan solely around him. In the worst case scenario, the quarterback could just throw it deep and Moss would always be able to get to the ball. Randy Moss and Don Hutson were both game changers. Only Jerry Rice can say that he was better than these two.
5. Greg Jennings = Charley Taylor
Before I get to the actual comparison, yes Greg Jennings is a better receiver than Randy Moss at this point in time. He has great hands, excellent route running and the speed to be a scoring threat from anywhere on the field. It’s that last quality that reminds me so much of the former Redskins receiver, Charley Taylor. Much like the former halfback turned wide receiver; Jennings has the ability to catch the ball anywhere on the field and score. However, unlike Bobby Mitchell and Bob Hayes who had a similar talent, Jennings has the ability to break tackles and is not quite as “sudden” as Mitchell and Hayes. In simpler terms, Jennings is less likely to wiggle through small opening to break big plays, but is more likely to run through tackles and fight for jump balls. His speed, refined route running and deceptive strength is all top notch.
4. Brandon Marshall = Cris Carter
Much like the former Vikings receiver, Brandon Marshall has just enough speed to be dangerous, but not enough to really be known as a blazer. What makes Marshall such a great receiver is the same thing that made Carter so dominant, his ability to catch a ton of passes. There are some stat heads who will say that he only caught so many balls because he was forced the ball. While it is true that he is one of the most targeted receivers in the league, he still produces better than most others who are similarly targeted, plus you don’t get that kind of attention without being extremely talented. While Marshall has yet to accumulate the kind of touchdown numbers that Carter became known for, he is actually producing far better than Carter did at the same point in his career. Marshall has had three 100 catch seasons, three 1,000+ receiving yards seasons and a single 10+ touchdown season. Carter had only one of these accomplishments during that same time period. He caught eleven touchdowns in 1989, his final season with the Philadelphia Eagles. Carter didn’t reach the 1,000 receiving yard mark until his seventh year in the NFL and he only caught more than 100 passes in two seasons for his whole career. If he keeps producing at his current rate, he’ll beat Carter to another prestige mark; induction into the Hall of Fame.
3. Larry Fitzgerald = Paul Warfield
This one was kind of tricky. Larry Fitzgerald has such a unique skill set that it is hard to think of player who is similar. Paul Warfield is definitely the closest I could come to Fitzgerald’s playing style. Both are receivers who have great speed and are able to outleap defenders for the ball. They both have solid hands that rarely allowed balls to touch thee ground. They both have used their size and leaping ability to make big plays as opposed to their excellent speed. Fitzgerald is probably the better leaper, but Warfield made bigger plays. Warfield’s career yards per reception were 20.1 while Fitzgerald’s is currently a paltry 11.3. While Fitzgerald’s numbers look a lot better at this point in his career than Warfield, but Warfield played on run dominant teams and was playing during a less pass intensive era of the NFL. Some may disagree with Fitzgerald being this low, but the next two receivers are just more balanced in terms of skill set.
2. Reggie Wayne = Steve Largent
This one was really difficult to do. Reggie Wayne has such a balanced skill set, that it makes it difficult to find an all-time great receiver who is similar. Most all-time greats have a defining characteristic, like Jerry Rice’s great hands or James Lofton’s blazing straight line speed. The only great I could think off that comes close to Wayne’s all-around skill set is former Seahawks great Steve Largent. Both Wayne and Largent have great hands and good speed, body control and toughness. Both have the ability to become unstoppable in spite of the best efforts of the corners he plays against. They both did this by simply outworking their opponents and having great chemistry with their quarterbacks. Ultimately, Wayne is much more talented than Largent was, but Largent overcame a bunch of obstacles to become the Hall of Famer he is. While Wayne’s numbers could be considered inflated because of how the league is nowadays and the quality of his quarterback, he still has to execute at a high level to be as a good as he is.
1. Andre Johnson = Terrell Owens
This was perhaps the easiest comparison that has appeared on this list. It’s pretty obvious why too, these two have very similar body frames, solid-to-great hands, depending on the season, and have been elite players at one point or another during their careers. Personality-wise, they seemingly couldn’t be more different. Owens has spent the majority of his career being a very me first person with a big mouth while Johnson seems to have taken a vow of silence. It is exceedingly rare to hear anything of note from him. However on the fields, whether it be a practice field or on game-day, these two consistently out-talent and out-work most of their compatriots. The thing that makes these receivers so special and so unique in the game their large frames; I can never remember receivers with such big, muscular frames being able to maintain the kind of speed that these two have had, for as long as they have been playing. It’s really this defining characteristic that makes them such a perfect match.
Author’s Note: Due to issues in the realm of life, the season reviews are indefinitely delayed. Honestly you’ll probably never see them on the blog, but they were a good learning experience. Thanks for the support.
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