Well, next week the NFL season wraps itself in a blanket of media coverage and flashbulbs and settles in for hibernation until September (November if the potential lockout gets really bad). However, the day before we fans indulge in the warm glow of the Super Bowl and the warm embrace of Buffalo wings and beer, 44 sports writers will gather in North Texas to decide who will be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
I’m not going to sit here and ask that you care about this, nor am I going to try and implore onto you the importance of the Hall of Fame. However, one of the most common debates amongst any sports fan is; who should be in the (respective) Hall of Fame? To that end, I’m going to take this opportunity to handicap the Hall of Fame election for this year. I’m only going to do players, because they are the ones I have the most knowledge on. For the one non-player up for election, NFL Films founder Ed Sabol, I’ll simply state that the impact NFL films has had should speak for itself and if he is elected I have no issue.
Now the Pro Football Hall of Fame Election process works like this. A list of preliminary nominees is compiled (here’s this year’s: http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/2010/9/13/2011-preliminary-nominees-alphabetical/ ) and mailed to the 44 voters, who represent all of the cities that have professional teams and several at large voters. Those voters select 25 of those initial candidates and the 25 nominees who get the most votes are moved to the semi-finalist list (this year’s here: http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/2010/11/28/class-of-2011-semifinalists/). The process is repeated to narrow the finalist list down to 15, to which the senior nominees (S) are added. The Senior Nominees go through the same process months earlier, narrowing a list of any players who have been retired for longer than the 25 years down to two. Those two players go to the finalist list automatically, and with either be enshrined or the Hall of Fame class is reduced. To be clear, they are not competing with modern era candidates for spots. The only question is whether or not they are a Hall of Famer.
Now with that out of the way, let’s get to it.
Richard Dent: Dent has been on the fringe of being elected for the past seven years. Since 2005, he has found himself a bridesmaid for election, but never a bride (insert Ricky Williams/Mike Dikta jokes here). It seems inevitable that he will eventually march down the aisle to make that all-important speech though. The Super Bowl MVP when the ’85 Bears legendarily ran rough shot over the playoffs, Dent finished his distinguished career with 137.5 sacks, finishing only five seasons of his fifteen seasons with less than eight sacks and only two of those were less than ten. He biggest obstacle to enshrinement always seems to be other players at his position. Last year, it was John Randle and the year before that, it was Bruce Smith. His chances seem good this year, since there are no pass-rushers who have a clear cut better case than him, but he could continue to be over looked. He’s mainly competing against Charles Haley, Chris Doleman and Cortez Kennedy for what is likely one spot this year. I give a 35% chance of getting in this year.
Cortez Kennedy: Kennedy is in a similar position to Dent. This will be his third year as a finalist and he has a pretty good chance of finding his through mire of the voting process and being elected. Kennedy was dominant as a defensive tackle on a Seahawks team that was pathetic. In the year that Kennedy won Defensive Player of the Year, 1992, the Seahawks won only two games. However, his dominance as an interior space eater was never in doubt and he left a lasting legacy as the best Seahawks defensive player ever. While he is competing with Haley, Dent and Coleman for one spot this year, Kennedy is one of those guys who is pretty much guaranteed to be elected, the question is only when. I’m giving him a 35% chance to be elected.
Chris Doleman: I kind of feel bad for Chris Doleman. While he has been steadily gaining ground in the voting process and has the best sack numbers of four major defensive line (pass-rusher) candidates, he just doesn’t get the kind of buzz that his competitors do. Part of that probably comes from the fact that he was very up and down through his career, relatively speaking. He never was able to string more than three consecutive seasons of more than ten sacks, which probably left a feeling of inconsistency in the minds of those who watched him play. However, after his first two seasons in the NFL, he never finished a season with less than seven sacks, thirteen consecutive years. His numbers make him very much worthy of induction, however he will likely be the last of these finalist to find his way in, probably when there are less obvious choices at other spots. 5% chance of him getting in this year.
Charles Haley: Haley is a bit of a dark horse for election this year. He may not have the best overall numbers, finding ten or more sacks at the end of six of out his thirteen seasons in the NFL, but numbers don’t always tell the story. The biggest thing that Haley has working in his favor is the fact that he was a key contributor on five Super Bowl championship teams. While that alone doesn’t necessarily mean that he deserves induction, most people who watched more of his career than I did attest to his impact on the field. He was also known for needling the media which has probably hurt his cause, though it shouldn’t. The reason he is a dark horse this year is just the simple reason that he has been getting a lot of support in recent years by former players and other Hall of Famers. His momentum may carry him the whole way this year, though I think his chances are less than either Cortez Kennedy or Richard Dent. I’m putting those chances at about 25%.
Les Richter (S): Les Ritcher has a good chance being elected; though I’m not sure his chances are as good as previous senior candidates. Part of the problem is that most times, the two senior nominees came from different positions. However Ritcher and Chris Hanburger were both linebackers and there is a chance that the voters might decide that they don’t want to put both in. That being said, Richter is competing of a spot with anyone else, so he is likely to be elected. I’m putting this at 70%.
Chris Hanburger (S): While I do know a bit more about Hanburger than I do about Ritcher (seriously, both were long retired before I was born, how am I supposed to comment on their hall of fame status,) His case is pretty much the same as Ritcher’s. So, the same 70% chance to get in is given. For those curious, he was a nine-time Pro Bowler (and four time All-Pro) in the 60s and 70s. During that period the Redskins were a pretty good team, but they weren’t really known for their defense. So he was easy to kind of ignore when he was first eligible.
Deion Sanders: Do I really need to discuss his credentials? It’s Primetime. It’s Neon Deion. What this video if you need more proof: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBBwQ6KeP7c&feature=related. The only reason he might not get in is if there are enough voters that hold his attitude against him. So to account for that, I give him a 95% chance of being elected.
Dermontti Dawson: Dawson has been on the verge of being inducted for the last few seasons, but each time has just missed being elected, usually for an overlooked guard. Named to the All-Decade team of the 90s, Dawson is considered by most to be second best center in the history of the Steelers, behind the great Mike Webster. He has been steadily gaining momentum in voting room as the years have gone on and the only reason that I’m not giving him a better than 50% chance of getting in this year is because of how strong Willie Roaf’s case is. If enough voters pass on Roaf because they don’t feel he is a “first ballot” Hall of Famer, then Dawson will be the beneficiary of that. However centers aren’t as prominent in the public’s mind as left tackles are.
Willie Roaf: Roaf brings an amazing pedigree to his first year of candidacy. He attended eleven Pro Bowls, was named an All-Pro (first or second team) nine times and was named to both the All-Decade team of the 90s and 2000s. By these stats (and actually watching him play) any reasonable person would say that Willie Roaf is a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer. However many voters are of the opinion that being inducted on the first ballot should be reserved for the truly transcendent players. Sadly, this kind of thinking has led to the log-jam of great players we currently have and it could continue in the coming years as numerous greats from the 2000s become eligible. If there are enough people who feel that Roaf isn’t a first ballot HOFer, then Dawson will likely get in. I’m giving him the 50% because of that.
Shannon Sharpe, Andre Reed, Cris Carter and Tim Brown: A common thing you hear about tight ends in the Hall of fame is that they changed the way the position was played. Whether it’s Mike Ditka, Ozzie Newsome or Kellen Winslow, the opinion that they changed the way the tight end position was played is a common thread among the legacies of those tight ends in the Hall of Fame. Shannon Sharpe is definitely one of those guys who could be considered a trailblazer. Sharpe was the first really effective tight end to be split out away from the line as a match up problem. He held all the tight end receiving records till recently when Tony Gonzalez broke them. That’s part of his problem though. Between Tony Gonzalez breaking his records and Antonio Gates being so excellent in his career, the shine of excellence on Sharpe’s career may have lost some of it’s luster. Also, the common opinion (that hurts every pass catchers case) is that receiving numbers are inflated as the pass has become more central in the offenses of the modern NFL. This opinion hurts the case for every pass catcher. While one will definitely get in, it’s harder to define who is great when this bias exists. Carter had great hands and seems to be considered the best of the bunch. Statistically, he and Brown are close to even, though Brown was more of a big play threat than was Carter. Reed sometimes feels like the odd-man out because his stats were so much lower than his peers in this class. However he was the key receiver on those Buffalo Bills teams that went to four consecutive Super Bowls and was still one of the more consistent receivers in the NFL during that timeframe. The ball is really in the air on these guys and I’m giving each one a 25% chance of getting elected this year.
Jerome Bettis, Marshall Faulk and Curtis Martin: Like the previous group, these guys are so close that they are being grouped together. They all have similar numbers and all should find themselves enshrined in Canton someday; however it’s likely only one will be elected this year. So the question becomes which one will receive that honor this year. Of all three, Martin was probably the best pure runner. The only time in his career that he fell below one thousand yards rushing was his final season, where he also faced numerous knee injuries. He was pretty much an ideal runningback who showed power, speed and toughness when he needed to. There is not a single legitimate argument one could make against him. Bettis may have the weakest case, but even then it’s just nitpicking. Bettis was the kind of runner who just powered over opponents, often through sheer force of will. However, the latter portion of his career saw him play a smaller and smaller role in the Steelers offense. Also, he never quite reached the same heights on notoriety that Faulk (being in two Super Bowls and a League MVP) or Martin (playing in the New York market) did. Truthfully though, he and Marshall Faulk had very similar careers as rushers. Both experienced five seasons of under one thousand yards, each only having one before 2002. After 2002 neither broke the thousand yard mark again and both were shells of what they used to be. The only real difference between this two is Faulk’s receiving skills. Faulk was a match-up nightmare coming out of the backfield and was able to make up for his sometimes, less than stellar rushing yards with his ability to make plays as a receiver. His is the impact that many remember best. When t comes down it, I’m giving him the best chance to be inducted this year at 50%, followed by Martin at 30% and Bettis at 20%.
So there you are, all the handicaps on those making the Pro Football Hall of Fame this year. Granted I have close to no idea how to judge this since I can’t just call up various voters and ask them what they are going to do, but it was fun to think out. Officially I am going to predict that Richard Dent, Les Ritcher, Chris Hanburger, Willie Roaf, Cris Carter and Marshall Faulk will join Deion Sanders as this year’s Hall of Fame inductees.
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