2012 NFL Predictions

While I normally don’t do prediction articles like his cause they’re basically just guesses, one of my loyal readers requested it. So, here we go. Let’s see who will make the playoffs, who could make a run at the playoffs and of course, who will win the Super Bowl.

AFC Division Winners: NE, BAL, HOU, OAK

AFC Wild Card: CIN, TEN

New England and Houston winning their divisions are among the most popular picks this offseason, but that’s mostly because they play in the two weakest divisions in the conference. As long as neither suffers a hugely catastrophic injury, both should win their divisions handily.

With the AFC North, there’s a three team race with Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh battling for a playoff spot. I like Joe Flacco a lot more than most and I think that with his weapons and a more open offense, they’ll pull ahead of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to win the division. That being said, I also think that one of those other two teams will get a wild card spot and wouldn’t be surprised if both did.

However, I think Cincy will get the wild card spot because of the combination of problems Pittsburgh has been dealing with this off-season. Between the injuries to Casey Hampton, Reshard Mendenhall and James Harrison, the Mike Wallace hold out and the new offensive system (not to mention the drama that came with the switch of offensive coordinators), I think that Pittsburgh just won’t be able to focus enough to pull together enough wins to make the playoffs.

I like the direction Tennessee is going in and I think that Chris Johnson will have a bounce back year. With Jake Locker stretching defenses vertically, especially when Kenny Britt comes back, I think that Tennessee will sneak into the last Wild card spot.

As for the AFC West, it’s more or less a crap shoot. Any of the four teams could easily win that division and all have weaknesses. That being said, I think Oakland has the least glaring weakness and the strongest defense. I also think that Carson Palmer will have a solid season with a full off-season of work and could lead the Raiders to their first playoff appearance in ten years.

NFC Division Winners: NYG, CHI, ATL, SF

NFC Wild Card: NO, PHI

For me, I think the Giants handle injuries the best of any team in the NFL. While they suffer injuries, they always have good depth and keep themselves playing at a high level in spite of the number of injuries they’ve dealt with in the preseason. I think that while Philadelphia and Dallas will put up a good fight in the division, only one will be able to sneak into the Wild Card spot and while I’m concerned about the injury issues Philly has been dealing with, the play of Nick Foles this preseason has encouraged me. So, I think they’ll pull through just fine.

In the NFC North, it’s a three team race, or rather, a race between one team (Chicago) and two passing offenses (Detroit and Green Bay). I fully acknowledge that Green Bay and Detroit have a great chance of making the playoffs, but with neither team showing great improvements in their defenses in the preseason, I’m just not convinced they’ll hold up over the long haul. Chicago is the most complete team in the division and I expect them to keep up offensively with new weapons Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. Detroit and Green Bay have a great chance of getting the Wild Card, but I just think this will be a down year for both teams.

In the NFC South, I doubt much will change. Atlanta has the majority of their teams back from last year and while a lot of people point to that as a reason that they won’t take a step forward, it’s still a team that won 10 games last year and 13 the year before that. You’ll have to pardon me if having basically the same team from those two seasons is enough reason for me to think they’ll win their division and make the playoffs. Especially since the Saints have taken a step back with numerous free agents lost and the turmoil surrounding their team. Don’t get me wrong, they’ll still win a lot of game and make the playoffs, but I just don’t think they’ll be the unstoppable juggernaut of offense they’ve been in the past.

In the NFC West, I think we’ve seen Arizona take a step back, St. Louis go nowhere and Seattle take a step forward. Seattle I could see making a run a sneaking into the playoffs, but that being said, I’m not betting against the 49ers. Their defense alone is strong enough to dismantle most of the other teams in their division and I expect to see their offense improve.

Darkhorses

AFC: Kansas City

While I’m admittedly concerned by the preseason performance, Kansas City has helped their team tremendously by adding arguably the best right tackle in football (Eric Winston) and getting back a lot of stars (Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles) back from injuries. While the loss of Brandon Carr hurts and Dontari Poe is still a question mark at the nose tackle spot, I think Romeo Crennel has a way with these players and that could be all they need to push to that next level. Also, their performance in the preseason could easily be explained away by the reluctance to show complicated blitz schemes until the regular season. Their defense is heavily predicated on those schemes so it’s entirely possible they could be much better than I’m giving them credit for. The division they pay in is also wide open so it might not be hard for them to make a run. We will see.

NFC: Seattle

I need to be honest; this is heavily influenced by the decision to start Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn. Normally I don’t give rookies the credit they deserve when it comes to making an impact like that, but Wilson is just special. He reminds me a bit of cross between Doug Flutie and Drew Brees, both notably shorter quarterbacks. He makes all the reads in the way that Brees does, but comes with an electrifying arm like Flutie did. Also, his running ability is better than either, making him a multi-dimensional threat at quarterback. I know I’m making a big deal about one player, but in al honesty I thought that Wilson was the second best QB coming out in this past year’s draft after Andre Luck and he’s got some good weapons in Braylon Edwards, Doug Baldwin, Zach Miller and Sidney Rice. Marshawn Lynch and Leon Washington should help keep the offense blanaced and dangerous. The Seattle defense is nothing to sneeze at either. Three of their four starting defensive backs made the Pro Bowl last year and Chris Clemons recorded 11 sacks. With a good number of their core pieces back (though they still need to replace star linebacker David Hawthorne), I expect to see the defense become recognized as one of the best in the NFL this year.

Disappointments

AFC: Den

I know it’s difficult to pick a team that might disappoint in the AFC, mostly because after the six who make the playoffs, it’s just really jumbled, but I do think that expectations in Denver have been raised to almost unreasonably high. Most expect the addition of Peyton Manning to propel the Boncos from a mere playoff team to a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But honestly, that’s a bit much. Peyton, while the best quarterback of this generation, still is limited by his weapons and his injury. He’s as smart as they come, but the injury has limited his throwing ability by sapping a bit of his arm strength. Additionally, his weapons are hardly speedsters and a tightly played defense could rough them up. The defense could also be in line for a letdown. They played well down the stretch last year, but age at numerous key positions and an offense that should be more explosive could easily lead to complacency. I just have concerns with this team.

NFC: Car

This is easy to say actually. There are a lot of people who are saying that if New Orleans falters, Carolina would step up and take the division. To call this a laughable prediction is understating it somewhat. The entirety of that prediction is based on Cam Newton rising from being the hot rookie to joining the NFL’s elite. Frankly, I think if Newton can avoid injury and a turnover plagued season (never mind joining the elite in the NFL) then the Panthers should be happy. I’ve never bought into Cam Newton and I’m not entirely sure I ever will. He’s got a good arm, but when I;’ve watched him, his ability to read defenses has been a consistent question mark. If the Panthers can keep getting one-on-one matchups to their receivers and finding ways to get receivers totally uncovered, then Cam should have no problem completing a fair number of his passes. However, I think defenses are smart enough to make it more difficult than that. He struggles to work passes through tough coverages other than just out-throwing both his receiver and the coverage. Sadly, that’s not going to work forever. I do believe in the Panthers running game and their defense, but with Newton as their QB, I’m just not willing to believe they can step into elite territory. Not until he shows that he can read defenses.

Super Bowl  Prediction

Atl. defeats Bal.

Super Bowl MVP: Julio Jones

What do you want me to tell you? These are the two most complete teams in the NFL right now. They have solid running and passing games and both play strong defensively. They may never be the sexy pick, they are always solid and I think this will be the first of numerous face offs between Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. I give Julio Jones the MVP because he just manhandled the Baltimore secondary in a preseason game and honestly I think that would be the case whether it’s the regular season or the post-season.