Championship Weekend Preview

                GB vs. CHI

                                 While they split the series over the course of the regular season, it’s difficult to say how good of an indicator those games were. In the first game, the Packers were still dealing with the loss of Ryan Grant to injury and in the second game the Bears really didn’t have anything to play for. Since the playoffs began, James Starks has given the Packers the kind of running game that they have lacked up to this point. He may not break off huge runs or have any kind of pack-breaking power, but he gets the tough yards when the Packers need them the most. His tough running, combined with a variety of run heavy packages the Packers utilize to pound opposing defenses, has provided enough balance to allow the passing game to flourish. However the Bears are strong in the middle of their defense and have a relatively deep secondary. The Bears have also done a very good job casing turnovers and forcing opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions. While they didn’t get any turnovers in their first game against Seattle (and the score would indicate that they allowed a relatively weak offense to dominate them,) they were able to make plays when they needed to, and only in the end of the game when they eased off the gas pedal did they allow the Seahawks back in it.

Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview

                BAL vs. PIT

                                 Perhaps we should refer to this as the body-bag rivalry; there are enough injuries every time these two teams face off for it to qualify.  While the regular season saw these teams play two very tight games, it simply may not be the case this time. Both teams do know each other’s scheme’s fairly well, however the Ravens have struggled more through the season to have a dynamic, quick strike passing offense and, more importantly, to have a shutdown passing defense. While the Chiefs struggled to get their passing game going, it was more a case of the Chiefs not having receivers, other than Dwayne Bowe, who were capable of creating separation against the Ravens secondary.

BCS National Championship Game Preview

Oregon vs. Auburn  

                I’m not really sure what I can say about these hasn’t already been said, but to me this game basically boils down to this: Can the Auburn defense slow down the Oregon offense enough for Auburn to win the game? Oregon likes to run their offense at warp-speed, getting up to the line and snapping the ball as fast as possible, by doing this, they limit the number of substitutions their opponents can make. This allows young quarterback Darron Thomas to make simple reads and decisions about whether or not he keeps the ball in the zone read option. Thomas is a dangerous runner, but the big play threat that got Oregon here has been LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. Both of whom have excellent speed and are difficult to tackle in the open field. The Auburn defensive backs and linebacker must be able to wrap up James and Barner when given the opportunity. Also, as odd as it sounds, the linebackers and defensive backs cannot simply maintain their gap assignments and wait for the ball to come to them, because of the speed of the Oregon runners. Instead they must attack the running lanes before the runners have a chance to get the edge. However this means that the defensive backs must also be strong in coverage, as Oregon likes to use misdirection and play-action to help open up the passing game. Man coverage will help limit communications breakdowns in the secondary, but the misdirection plays will be difficult for the Auburn corners not to bite on. Auburn does have one major advantage in the play of Nick Fairley, who is almost unblockable one-on-one. He should be able to slow down the rushing offense by penetrating along the interior and forcing runs to bounce further outside than they should. This will give the linebackers and defensive backs more time to determine who has the ball and pursue that ball carrier.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Preview

Nevada vs. BC

                On the eve of the BCS national title game, one of the best match-ups of offense versus defense that has been seen all year.

                Nevada, while known more for their upset of Boise State, has been a solid team for a number of years. They like to build their offense around the running of both Vai Taua and Colin Kaepernick; the zone read option being their play of choice. The thing that makes this unique as compared to every other team running the zone-read option, is the fact that they run out of the pistol formation. Nevada head coach Chris Ault was the innovator of the Pistol offense and has found numerous different ways to exploit opponents and get the absolute most out of his players when running in this offense. Taua provides a great deal of power and downhill running potential which is a great compliment to Kaepernick’s deceptive speed from the quarterback position. Both have rushed for over one thousand yards and combined for 39 touchdowns. However they will be challenged by the best run defense in the country. The Boston College defensive line is great at occupying blocks and allowing Luke Kueckly, Mark Herzlich and Kevin Pierre-Louis to roam and run freely to the ball-carrier. While they will need to be disciplined against the zone-read option they must also be disciplined against the play-action. Kaepernick is very good at ball-faking and has a strong enough arm to stretch the ball downfield. Nifty receiver Rishard Mathews and tight end Virgil Green are good at stretching the field and the Boston College secondary is prone to biting on play-fakes.

                The Boston College offense will be benefitted by the return of runningback and offensive focal point Montel Harris. Harris and backup Andre Williams need to see a lot of carries in this game because true freshman quarterback Chase Rettig is far from the best decision maker. Also, while Nevada’s secondary occasionally has issues locating the ball in flight, Boston College receivers aren’t particularly athletic and will need to use their moves to create separation. Even then, the pass should be used only to move the chain on third downs. Though Harris and Williams have been effective, they may have a hard time moving the ball against the athletic and active Nevada defense.

Prospects to Watch

                Nevada

                                Dontay Moch – Defensive End/Outside Linebacker: Moch has really been an underrated story through the course of the season in college football. In the past three years (2008-to this game), Moch has racked up 59.5 tackles for loss (63 for his career) and 26.5 sacks. That kind of production is just plain great. While he may not wow anyone with his size (though he is the prototypical size you’d like to have for an outside linebacker/defensive end), his speed off the first step is top-notch. He has a great motor when pursuing the quarterback and has great range against the run. He’s the kind of player who can who can chase a runningback out of bounds when they try to break their run to the outside. However, he is not a particularly strong player. He struggles to anchor himself against runs and can be locked out by bigger tackles. He will probably need to be moved to outside linebacker regardless of which team drafts him. He has the range to be a good coverage player, but is inexperienced in that role and would fit better in a 3-4. Look for him to go between the 3^rd and 5^th round.

                BC

                                Anthony Castonzo – Offensive Tackle: While Castonzo lacks ideal bulk and may never be the kind of mauler in the run game that some teams may want; he is still a top-end pass protector. His long arms make it difficult for opposing rushers to get around him and he has the ability to move and engage those rushers if they don’t try a double move. He generally uses good technique and has great awareness to pass off rushers and identify blitzers. However he does occasionally over-extend and will engage the first rusher he sees, making him a bit more vulnerable to delayed blitzes. His run blocking is less than stellar and he can stop his feet on occasion. He’ll need to work on these technique flaws, but has shown that he is a hard enough worker to correct these mistakes. He is projected to go between the late first and early second round.

Final Pick

                Nevada – Colin Kaepernick is a great asset within Nevada’s offense while Craig Rettig is still a detriment to the Boston College offense. 

BBVA Compass Bowl Preview

Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky  

                Kentucky’s offense has to go through runningback Derrick Locke if they want a chance to win this game. Regular starting quarterback Mike Hartline has been suspended for an off-the-field incident that took place in early December and now the Wildcats have to count on Morgan Newton to lead their passing offense. Newton is nowhere near the kind of passer that Hartline is. His accuracy is not where it should be to face this kind of defense, which does well against the pass by rushing the passer and forcing the opposing quarterback into making bad decisions. If the Wildcats passing offense is going to get into into any sort of a rhythm, they’re going to need to get Newton some easy completions early and protect Newton from the pass rush of Pittsburgh. This will mean limited touches down the field for talented wideout Randall Cobb. Kentucky offensive coordinator Randy Sanders will need to find creative ways to get the ball into Cobb’s hands to pull some of the pressure off of Locke and Newton, who is a good runner. If they can find ways to get Locke and Cobb in space with the ball, Kentucky may be able to find a way to move the ball consistently against a less than stellar tackling secondary of the Pittsburgh Panthers.

                On the other side, Pitt has a pair of small, but dangerous runners in Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. Both have the ability to find lanes behind their big offensive line. Also the Kentucky defenders have a hard time gaining leverage and getting off blocks. They need to be able slowdown that running game, because they would have a better chance of forcing turnovers against starting quarterback Tino Sunseri, who has made questionable decisions in the past and is young enough to be confused by rotating coverage looks. However that may not be enough against the talents of Johnny Baldwin, who can knife through zone coverage like no-one else and is difficult to match-up with man-on-man. Corners Randall Burden and Anthony Mosley are also going to need to show great discipline against the passing game, because the Panthers like to use double moves to take advantage of the great speed of Baldwin.

Prospects to Watch

                Pittsburgh

                                Johnny Baldwin – Wide Receiver: While Baldwin still needs to work a bit on his separation skills; he is an elite prospect who reminds me a little bit of Randy Moss in his skill set. He has natural hands and dominant long speed, made easier by his long striding legs. He effortlessly tracks the ball in the air and is big enough to win 99% of the jump ball. He is also a strong competitor and has the frame to eat-up opposing corners in run blocks. He could be more consistent in this area, but with his ability to just quickly eat up off-coverage, this is a minor issue. Baldwin should go solidly in the first round, as long as he comes out.

 

                Kentucky

                                Derrick Locke – Runningback: Locke is woefully undersized, but he brings great speed and open field talents. He also has great explosiveness and quickness that should help any team looking for a good change of pace back. Locke also has experience returning kicks and is dangerous in that aspect of the game as well adding to his stock. He may never be a starting runningback, but he can certainly contribute to special teams and give an occasional big play to the offense. He could go in the 7^th round if he tests well.

Final Pick

                Pittsburgh – Regardless of how many times I am wrong, I think losing the starting quarterback is just too damaging for a team to make up for. Pittsburgh will take advantage of that fact to beat down on Newton and the Wildcats. 

Wild Card Weekend Preview

                GB vs. PHI

                                 This game is all about the pressure. Which team can force more of it, and which team is better prepared to handle it. The Packers have been all about the pass setting up their (very limited) running game. Regardless of how good Matt Flynn looked against the Patriots in his only start, he is not good enough to be able to counter the talented Philadelphia secondary. However, Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t have nearly as much trouble dealing with this secondary that is, while talented, very hurt. The Eagles have lost two of their starters in the secondary as well as their middle linebacker to injury, leaving them somewhat lacking in the coverage department. The Eagles need to be able to generate pressure with their front four if they want to disrupt the timing of Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. On the flip side, the Packers not only need to get good pressure from Clay Matthews and Frank Zombo on the outside, but they also need Cullen Jenkins, Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji to continue to push the pocket to force Michael Vick to make mistakes. Minnesota laid out a blue print when they knocked Vick around, by using the corner blitz to catch him off guard. Charles Woodson is very good at coming on the blitz and causing turnovers. If the Packers can bring Woodson on the blitz and have solid play by the other corners, they might be able to stop the high-powered, Vick led offense. The Eagles should try and utilize screens as often as they can to pull back the dangerous Packers pass rush. Lesean McCoy and Jerome Harrison are great receivers and dangerous in the open field, as is Desean Jackson. If the Eagles can utilize those screens in the face of the blitz, they have a great chance to break some big plays.

                Against the Spread: Philadelphia comes into this game a three point favorite. While their normally explosive offense is dangerous, their defense has been decimated through the entire season by injuries. Talent-wise are still very good defensively, however their lack of depth is concerning when facing the deep Packers receiving corp. I’m still taking the Eagles to win the game, but I’m also taking the points.

NO vs. SEA

                                Well this certainly doesn’t seem right does it? The 11-5 New Orleans Saints needing to travel to the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs. Well regardless of whether it’s fair or not fair, that is the challenge placed before the Saints in this game. When these teams locked up earlier in the season, the Seahawks were unable to get a single sack and lost by 15 in spite of picking Drew Brees off twice. However this game is far different than that game was. That game was in New Orleans, this one is in Seattle. I know some people would discount the effect that has, however it matters a great deal. First off, you have the wild Seattle crowd, which help make Qwest Field one of the loudest places to play in the NFL. The Saints will need to be very disciplined and aware of the snap count. Secondly, you have the Seattle weather. While rain is far more common than snow, for a dome team like New Orleans, playing in cold rain may be all it takes to throw them out of their comfort zone. Thirdly, there’s the actually travel involved. Going across country is a difficult thing to do when you need to add in the preparation for a football game. Jet-lag may seem like a necessary evil for those who are in other professions, however leaving a football team extra tired and then trying to get them to focus on their own assignments in an already loud environment, it’s more difficult than you would think. Also, in their previous meeting, the Saints still had Chris Ivory healthy and he rushed for 99 yard and a touchdown in that game. Now, both Ivory and Pierre Thomas (the two main runningbacks) are on injured reserve and the Saints need to rely on Reggie Bush and Julius Jones to provide a solid running game. That is not the best group to have faith in. While Bush does provide a good bit of speed and versatility to the position, he doesn’t really show the power necessary to pound the rock in the middle consistently. Jones can pound the middle a little better, key word there being little. The Saints are pretty much going to be one-dimensional in this game, which gives the Seahawks a nice bit of help on the defensive side of the ball.

                Against the Spread: For all that text talking about what will be ailing the Saints, you’d think I’d be picking the Seahawks for the win right? Well, even if you did before, the very nature of that question gives away that I won’t. I may be crazy, but crazy ≠ stupid. The Saints (who are favored by 10.5 points) should win this game, however I do think everything I talked about earlier will keep this game closer than most imagine. So I am going to take the points.

                BAL vs. KC

                                This game is going to be an interesting battle of strengths. This game pits the best rushing offense in the NFL (Chiefs) against the 5^th best run defense in the NFL (Ravens). I think that aspect of the game will end up getting canceled out because both teams are perfectly aware of how good the other is at countering that particular strength. Instead, I think the Chiefs are going to come out of the gate with numerous play-action fakes and take some shots down the field against the Ravens 21^st ranked pas defense. They’ll only go back to the regular running game after loosening up the Ravens defense a bit. While that won’t exactly be easy, because the Ravens are tied for 8^th in the NFL in interceptions, the bulk of which come from the return of the best ballhawk in the game today, Ed Reed. However, this too will be battle of strengths because the Chiefs have thrown the third fewest interceptions during the season, only 8. While the Chiefs may not rack up the passing yards like other teams in the NFL, they are very efficient throwing the ball and Dwayne Bowe is a dangerous threat. If the Ravens roll Ed Reed over to help their corners cover Bowe, they can take away the major receiving threat that the Chiefs have, but it’ll also make it easier to run the ball to the opposite side. The ravens will need to rely heavily of the ball of defensive line to limit any backside runs the Chiefs try to pull as the game goes on. That shouldn’t be an issue though, as the Ravens have one of the best sets of defensive lineman in the NFL, regardless of defensive scheme. On the other side, the Chiefs have a good defense that has often been overlooked because of their lack of any one defining characteristic. They’re not particularly great at one aspect of the defensive game, but they are solid at everything. Tamba Hali and Wallace Gilberry have been great at providing a pass rush while Glenn Dorsey and Derrick Johnson have shut down opposing running lanes. The ravens on the other hand have not been terrible offensively, but they have struggled more than usual to run the ball and, in-spite of the weapons they have, their passing game has been stagnate. However, just because they haven’t exploded offensively yet, doesn’t mean they won’t do it at any time. Between Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and Ray Rice, they have enough weapons to punish any team that just tries to stack the box against the run. Rice will still be the focal point of the offense, being the team’s leading rusher as well as the second leading receiver (in terms of receptions). H does a good job getting those tough yards that other runnners may be more hesitant to pursue. If they can keep working the offense through him and using play-action to press the ball downfield, they have a good chance of pulling this out.

                Against the Spread: The 3 points the Ravens are favored by feels about right to me. While I do think the Chiefs are a bit underrated in this game, The Ravens are more experienced and are very good at playing on the road. I’m taking them and I’m giving the points.

                NYJ vs. IND

                                This game is all about contrasts, much like it was last season. The Jets come in with a strong running game and defense while the colts bring a powerful passing game and mediocre defense to the table. However, what is drastically different between last postseason’s match-up and this one is that the Colts come into this game woefully under-manned. Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon are still playing, but that’s about it. Peyton Manning doesn’t have Austin Collie’s clutch catching or Dallas Clark stretching the seam. When it comes down to Jacob Tamme and Blair White tryong to out run the talented Jets pass defense, I’m more than just a little concerned. The return of Joseph Addai helps, as he is a very good passing catching option out of the backfield. However that Jets defense is just too good to allow a great deal of separation. Offensively the Jets just need to keep the ball on the ground, where the Colts have struggled all year to stop opponents. If they control the clock and keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines, where he can’t try and pull a miracle, they shouldn’t have a hard time winning this game.

                Against the Spread: The Jets should win this game and the home-field advantage that the Colts have is the only thing that makes them a 2.5 point favorite that they are. The Jets just match-up well against them, so I am taking those same Jets for the win and I’m taking the points.