Well, it’s time. Free agency starts soon and all of the scouting reports are in. It’s time to make the first mock draft of the season. Here we go.
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – QB – Stanford
No one should be surprised by this. The Colts made this decision almost as soon as the season ended and everything else has just been doing due diligence and clearing cap space.
2. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III – QB - Baylor
After everything the Redskins gave up, is there really another pick? Griffin had better be THE guy, because the Redskins gave up a ton to move up for this pick.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil – OT – USC
This seems almost as locked in as Andrew Lcuk going number one. The Vikings need a left tackle after they failed to replace Bryant McKinnie last year and Kalil is considered a can’t miss. He can be a centerpiece building block on that offense with Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin (Christian Ponder’s membership in this club is still pending).
4. Cleveland Browns – Justin Blackmon – WR – Oklahoma State
Since the Browns were unable to pull off a trade to move up to the second overall pick, they’ll have to settle for the best receiver in the draft. Who, by the way, can be a major playmaker after the catch and has sure hands, though that shouldn’t be so important to the Browns since they ranked first in the NFL in dropped passes.
Sarcasm aside, the Browns need playmakers on the outside more than the shiny new quarterback fad that pops up each draft. Blackmon should be an automatic selection for them.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne – CB – LSU
The Buccaneers had two talented cornerbacks this past year with Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib. But Barber is old and may retire any day, while Talib has off-the-field problems that are deeply concerning. I’d keep Talib, because he can be great when he’s on, but they need to draft the guy to replace Barber. Claiborne is the kind of shutdown corner that you’d like to have following your longtime starter.
6. St. Louis Rams – Riley Reiff – OT – Iowa
The Rams got a good deal in trading down, but the value of that deal isn’t going to come in this first round. With all of their targeted players off the board, there is a chance that Rams could try to move down again, though I think trade partners would be scarce. If they stand pat, I think they go for the second best offensive tackle and consider moving Jason Smith inside to guard. If you can’t get Sam Bradford weapons, then it’s best to protect him.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Melvin Ingram – DE – South Carolina
Once again, the Jaguars find themselves trying to address their pass rushing and pass catching problems via the draft. They’re hoping for Blackmon to fall to them, but it’s highly unlikely he will. So they need to pick from the top pass rushers, a move that hasn’t worked out too well for them in the past. Here, they take a pass rusher who is a little less natural with a hand on the ground, but is a hard worker and relentless presence off the edge. He’ll hopefully workout with others have failed.
8. Miami Dolphins – Dontari Poe – DT – Memphis
The first of some of my surprise picks, which when you think about it, make a good deal of sense. I will say right off the bat that I think the Dolphins will have signed a quarterback before the draft ad be focused on the rest of their team. To that end, the Dolphins are likely to lose two of their three starting defensive lineman in free agency this year. Poe would offer the Dolphins an immediate replacement for at least Paul Soliai. Following a great combine and solid tape, I think he’ll surprise most pundits and find himself in the top ten of this draft.
9. Carolina Panthers – Quinton Coples – DE – North Carolina
The Panthers need help in the middle, but with the most natural 4-3 defensive end in the draft slipping, I think they take advantage of that and grab him. Coples would pair well with Charles Johnson. Coples has some question marks about his motor, but Ron Rivera is the kind of coach that can get the best out of a player like that.
10. Buffalo Bills – Courtney Upshaw – DE/OLB – Alabama
The Bills have needed pass rushing help in the worst way. Upshaw is the best available pass rusher at this point, though there are fair questions about whether or not he can play with his hand on the ground. However at this point, there’s no other pass rusher with good value. They could also go offensive tackle with this pick.
11. Kansas City Chiefs – Jonathan Martin – OT – Stanford
The Chiefs is somewhat in a position to take the best player available and a number of mock drafts have them taking Trent Richardson here. However, because of the issues Barry Richardson has had in pass protection, I think they’ll focus on building the offensive line. Martin is a solid tackle and can play either position well.
12. Seattle Seahawks – Janoris Jenkins – CB – North Alabama
This may surprise some people given how well the Seahawks’ secondary played last year. However, the Seahawks recently released Marcus Trufant and there are questions about if Walter Thurmond III can stay healthy. Pete Carroll hasn’t been afraid to take a chance on character question players (like Mike Williams) and Jenkins could allow the Seahawks to move Brandon Browner or Richard Sherman to the slot. Jenkins is the best ball hawk in the draft and will help any team that wants to help their secondary.
13. Arizona Cardinals – David DeCastro – OG – Stanford
The Cardinals need to help their offensive line and with all the other tackle off the board, the Cardinals grab the most technically sound guard to come out in a long time. When I hear comparisons to a young Steve Hutchinson, then I take him over anyone else.
14. Dallas Cowboys – Dre Kirkpatrick – CB – Alabama
The Cowboys need help in the secondary and Kirkpatrick is the last obvious first round pick available in the draft. This does also heavily depend on whether or not the Cowboys release Terrence Newman. They could go with another inside linebacker or addressing the offensive line with this pick.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Kuechly – LB – Boston College
The rotation of the linebackers that Philadelphia has had since Jeremiah Trotter retired ends here and now. Kuechly is smart, a great leader, more athletic than given credit for and a sure tackler. He’ll be a major upgrade in the middle and should go a long way to securing that Eagles run defense. They could also go safety or defensive tackle here, but Kuechly rate well above any available players at those positions.
16. New York Jets – Trent Richardson – RB – Alabama
This may seem like a surprise given that Mark Barron is still on the board and the issues the Jets have had at safety. But at this point, the value of Trent Richardson is just too great to pass up. Additionally, while Shonn Greene ran for over 1000 yards last year, it was the first year he had done so and his contract is up after next year. Richardson would be a solid complement to Greene in his first year and would likely replace Greene following next year.
17. Cincinnati Bengals – Cordy Glenn – OT/OG – Georgia
The Bengals don’t really need any help at the tackle position, but they over-achieved on the interior and two of those over-achievers are free agents. Glenn could slide into the starting lineup nicely and help the running game stay on track.
18. San Diego Chargers – Michael Floyd – WR – Notre Dame
Most mock drafts have the Chargers addressing the offensive or defensive lines. However, all of them seem to ignore the obvious fact that Vincent Jackson is a free agent and not likely to return. They would then need someone to replace him, and in a big way. Floyd is a similar type of receiver and would be a good value at this point in the draft.
19. Chicago Bears – Mark Barron – S – Alabama
Given all the issues the Bears had at safety last year, and with Mcihael Floyd off the board, why wouldn’t they go get the best safety in the draft?
20. Tennessee Titans – Peter Konz – OC – Wisconsin
The Titans had severe issues along the interior of their offensive line, contributing to the problems Chris Johnson had rushing the ball. At this point in the draft, the only interior lineman who warrants a first round pick would be Peter Konz. A solid center can solidify an offensive line almost like nothing else. Konz should be able to have that kind of effect on the Titans.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Brockers – DT – LSU
While I think the Bengals have a solid pair in Domata Peko and Pat Sims, they’re going to let Pat Sims test free agency. Should he goes elsewhere, they’ll need to find a replacement and Brockers would be a solid value.
22. Cleveland Browns– Coby Fleener – TE – Stanford
While the Browns feel comfortable with Benjamin Watson and Evan Moore at tight end, neither was particularly encouraging last year. After adding Justin Blackmon in their earlier pick, the Browns can add another player with solid hands to be a more consistent security blanket for whoever is playing quarterback.
23. Detroit Lions – Mike Adams – OT – Ohio State
Ideally, the Lions would like to get a corner, however it would be a reach to take one at this point. Due to the tight salary cap situation the Lions find themselves in, they may not be able to re-sign long-time left tackle Jeff Backus. Even if they do, Backus is 35 and not long for the NFL. Drafting his heir apparent would be a prudent move here and Mike Adams is a solid option.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Dont’a Hightower – LB – Alabama
The Steelers have done a lot of cap purging this off season, including the release of long-time interior linebacker, James Farrior. His release opens up a spot for new linebacker to slide into and Hightower has a lot of experience being a thumper in a 3-4 defense. He’s a guy who could step in right away, though he’ll probably sit behind Larry Foote for a year, as is the Steeler way. He’ll big a big help once he gets on the field.
25. Denver Broncos – Jerel Worthy – DT – Michigan State
Lost in the euphoria of Tebowmania and the controversy that surrounds it was some of the major concerns the Broncos defense should have. While Elvis Dumervil, Von Miller and DJ Williams are all solid, young pieces, the majority of the starting secondary is over 33 and the starting defensive tackles are both free agents. Addressing any of the issues should be top priority. The value here would be at the defensive tackle spot and Jerel Worthy is an active, if sometimes unspectacular, interior lineman.
26. Houston Texans – Kendall Wright – WR – Baylor
The Texans had some major problems in the passing game when Andre Johnson went down with injuries and they never have really had a consistent secondary receiver. Wright, regardless of what his 40 time says, is a big play receiver. He could be a great complement to Johnson and Owen Daniels.
27. New England Patriots – Fletcher Cox – DE/DT – Mississippi State
The Patriots need defensive help in the worst way. While Vince Wilfork is a great run stuffer, they haven’t had an interior presence quite like Richard Seymour, who they traded a few years back. Cox likely won’t be that kind of player, but he can help the Patriots push the pocket and free up whomever the Patriots have rushing the passer. Don’t be surprised if the Pats trade up or down (most likely down) here or at their other pick.
28. Green Bay Packers – Andre Branch – DE/OLB – Clemson
The Packers defense was almost as porous as the Patriots and a major problem was the pass rush. While Clay Matthews still has great pass rushing talent, he clearly needs help. At this point in the draft, Branch is the best option. He’s a good athlete with solid tools, but he must prove he can be consistent. While I would normally avoid these types of players, at this point there’s no way to get around the problem of the pass rush.
29. Baltimore Ravens – Lavonte David – LB – Nebraska
Ideally the Ravens would like to get some help along the interior of the offensive line, likely targeting Peter Konz. However in this mock, he’s already gone. In his place, the Ravens are going to go for an interior linebacker, an undersized linebacker who most rate as too small to be an impact player in the NFL. Sound familiar? Like a certain guy from the University of Miami (Fl.) drafted some 15 years ago? I’m not saying, he’ll be another Ray Lewis, but the similarities are uncanny. Either way, he would be a solid replacement for Lewis in the long term.
30. San Francisco 49ers – Rueben Randle – WR – LSU
The 49ers need receiving help, in spite of the signing of Randy Moss and the attempts to extend Josh Morgan. Randle is the kind of receiver who can play in the slot and move to the outside once he adds some bulk to his frame. This pick is a little bit of a reach, but the Niners need young receivers to build with.
31. New England Patriots – Stephen Gilmore – CB – South Carolina
The Pats need more corners, which in this league you can never have enough of. Gilmore is the next best corner on the board and at this pick, it’s hardly a reach to go and get him. Mixing him in with Devin McCourty and the other young defensive backs they’ve been developing might be what they need to help figure out their defensive problems.
32. New York Giants – Devon Still – DT – Penn State
The Giants love building along their lines, offensive and defensive. While they need to get some new offensive lineman in because of the age of their current starters, there is better value in taking Still at this point. Still could pair well with Joseph or Marvin Austin, likely replacing the cap prohibitive Chris Canty. This could easily change, but I’d say it’s a far prediction.
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